2025年11月底，广东新沙港靠岸了一艘特殊的货轮。 文|有风 编辑|有风 原计划2025年12月25日开榨，眼瞅着就泡汤了。 沿海油厂更惨，进口油菜籽库存一直是"0"，开工率连续9周挂"0"。 可现实给了市场一记闷棍。 这批澳籽到港后，检验周期比预想的长得多。 船上装的是澳大利亚油菜籽，这可是中澳之间断了4年的贸易重新启动的标志。 当时市场都觉得，这下油菜籽供应该跟上了，油厂开榨后菜油产量会增加，价格说不定能稳一稳。 这供应端一掉链子，进口菜籽油库存跟着下滑，价格反倒止跌反弹了。 春节就在眼前，这"供给偏紧+备货窗口"的组合，能不能让菜油期货走出一波行情，成了最近大家热议 的话题。 现货市场先"喊渴"：预期挺美，现实骨感 一开始听说澳籽恢复进口，不少人都松了口气。 毕竟之前国内油菜籽供应挺紧张，尤其加拿大那边还因为反倾销调查，进口量被卡得厉害。 本以为澳籽到港能补补缺口，结果检验流程一拉长，整个节奏全乱了。 数据不会骗人。 2025年12月26日，进口菜籽油库存量跌到31.69万吨，不管跟去年比还是跟上个月比，都降了不少。 现货价格也跟着动，12月进口三级菜籽油均价到了9851元/吨。 业内估计，2026年 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of palm oil is limited, and there is a risk of a second decline [1]. - With the stabilization of US soybeans, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil should continue to widen [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: Palm oil futures closed at 8,744 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.30% change and 8,664 yuan/ton at night with a -0.91% change; soybean oil futures closed at 8,288 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.61% change; rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,840 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.66% change. The trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures decreased by 109,457, 37,411, and 52,411 lots respectively [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong is 8,610 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 10,210 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan. The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in relevant regions is - 124 yuan/ton, 322 yuan/ton, and 370 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures is 1,096 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures is - 456 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil is - 90 yuan/ton, 224 yuan/ton, and 450 yuan/ton respectively [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: In 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time, a 3.4% increase from last year. Production in November may decline by 9% month - on - month to 1.86 million tons, and then by 11% in December to 1.66 million tons. The export volume from November 1 - 10 is expected to be 190,533 tons, a 49.53% decrease from the same period last month [2][3]. - **Soybeans in the US**: Analysts expect that as of the week ending November 6, US soybean export sales will increase by 4.5 - 16 million tons, soybean meal export sales will increase by 0.5 - 4 million tons, and soybean oil export sales will increase by 0 - 0.25 million tons [3]. - **Soybeans in Brazil**: The 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil is expected to be 178.4 million tons, with a forecast range of 174.1 - 182.6 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous forecast [4]. - **Soybeans in Argentina**: As of the week ending November 5, the cumulative sales of 2024/25 soybeans reached 38.8346 million tons, and the cumulative sales of 2025/26 soybeans reached 4.1747 million tons [5]. - **Rapeseed in Ukraine**: The 2026/27 rapeseed production in Ukraine is expected to be 3.4 million tons, with a forecast range of 3.2 - 3.6 million tons, remaining the same as the previous forecast [5]. - **Rapeseed in Australia**: The 2025/26 rapeseed production in Australia is expected to be 6.3 million tons, remaining the same as the previous forecast [6]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook; the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7].

Group 1 - Canada has implemented a series of tariffs on Chinese products, including a 100% tariff on electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, starting from October 1, 2024 [3][5] - The economic relationship between Canada and the US is significant, with Canada exporting over $400 billion worth of goods to the US annually, leading Canada to seek economic protection through closer ties with the US [3][5] - Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is facing pressure as the trade relationship with the US deteriorates, with reports indicating that he is exploring other international markets to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [5][6] Group 2 - The Canadian media is speculating about improving relations with China, while Trudeau is cautious due to strong pro-US sentiments within Canada [6][9] - China's response to Canada's tariffs has included imposing 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil and 25% tariffs on Canadian seafood and pork, indicating a retaliatory stance [6][8] - Australia is poised to take over Canada's canola market, with potential agreements allowing Australian suppliers to export significant quantities of canola to China, further isolating Canada [8][9] Group 3 - Trudeau's tariff policies are seen as ineffective in protecting Canadian industries, as retaliatory measures from China could deepen Canada's economic troubles [9] - The relationship dynamics suggest that Canada must reassess its approach towards China, as continued alignment with US policies may lead to further economic challenges [9]