证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 煤炭开采 2025 年蒙煤电子竞拍梳理 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，原油价格方面，布伦特原 油期货结算价为 70.69 美元/桶，较上周上涨 4.81 美元/桶（+7.3%）；WTI 原油期货结算价为 65.21 美元/桶，较上周上涨 4.14 美元/桶（+6.78%）。 天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 11.68 美元/百万英热，较上周 下降 0.13 美元/百万英热（-1.11%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期货结算价 40.65 欧 元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 1.28 欧元/兆瓦时（+3.24%）；美国 HH 天然气期 货结算价为 4.42 美元/百万英热，较上周下降 0.94 美元/百万英热（-17.5%）。 煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到岸价 101.5 美元/吨，较上周 上涨 3 美元/吨（+3.05%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭（6000K）FOB 价 116.75 美 元/吨，较上周上涨 5.25 美元/吨（+4.71%）；IPE 南非理查兹湾煤炭期货 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in U.S. natural gas futures prices due to a polar cold wave and short covering, with prices rising by 25% to $4.875 per million British thermal units, marking the highest settlement price since December 8 [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal consumption to increase as power producers may switch to coal to control fuel costs amid rising natural gas prices [8]. - The report notes that the performance of coal mining companies is expected to improve as annual report disclosures approach, following the principle that "strong performance leads to strong stocks" [3]. Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 23, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.07 per barrel, up $1.63 (+2.74%) [1]. - Natural gas prices have also seen significant increases, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.81 per million British thermal units, up $0.46 (+4.04%) [1]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report specifically recommends focusing on companies such as Keda Control Technology, which is advancing in smart mining, and China Qinfa, which is experiencing a turnaround [3]. - Additional companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others that may see growth in the future [3]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of weather on natural gas production, particularly in the Marcellus shale region, which may face operational challenges due to snow [8]. - It also notes that the U.S. natural gas inventory surplus is rapidly decreasing, with expectations that it will fall below the five-year average by the end of March [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that high natural gas prices in the U.S. are driving a resurgence in coal consumption, with utilities opting to increase coal-fired power generation to control costs [2][3] - The performance of coal-fired power generation in the U.S. has seen a year-on-year increase of 21% in Q1 2025, while gas-fired generation has decreased by approximately 3% [3] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of December 12, 2025, coal prices have seen slight adjustments, with Newcastle coal priced at $107.75 per ton, down by $1.75 from the previous week, and ARA coal at $95.55 per ton, down by $1.20 [3][33] - The report highlights a significant increase in coal consumption in the U.S. due to the cost control measures by utilities, leading to a shift back to coal from gas [2][3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][6] - It also highlights companies with potential growth such as Huayang Co., Gansu Energy Chemical, and Jiangxi Tungsten Industry, which have recently undergone significant changes [3][6] Market Trends - The report notes that coal-fired power generation's carbon emissions are approximately 75% higher than those from gas-fired generation, indicating a potential increase in overall carbon emissions as coal's share in power generation rises [3] - The report anticipates further increases in natural gas prices, which could continue to influence coal consumption patterns [3][5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the unexpected decline in natural gas prices in Europe despite a significant reduction in Russian gas supplies, highlighting a transformation in the energy market dynamics [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - European natural gas prices have dropped significantly, with the Dutch TTF futures falling to around €25 per MWh, a decrease of over 92% from the historical high of €339 in August 2022 [1][3]. - Russian gas exports to the EU have plummeted to about 15% of the levels seen in 2021, which would typically lead to price increases, yet prices have decreased instead [1][3]. Group 2: Supply Diversification - Europe has successfully diversified its energy supply, with LNG imports increasing by 121% compared to 2021, primarily from the US, Qatar, and North Africa [3][4]. - The construction and expansion of 12 LNG terminals in Europe have increased processing capacity by approximately 75 billion cubic meters, equivalent to half of the peak Russian pipeline gas supply [3][4]. Group 3: Internal Connectivity - The completion of key gas interconnection pipelines has enhanced internal energy connectivity, resulting in a 35% increase in cross-border gas flows within Europe [4][6]. Group 4: Demand Changes - The energy crisis has accelerated Europe's energy transition, with renewable energy capacity increasing by 58% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [4][6]. - Overall natural gas consumption in Europe has decreased by about 18% compared to pre-crisis levels, with industrial gas demand dropping by 27% [4][6]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - Speculative trading in the natural gas futures market has decreased by 65% from the peak in 2022, indicating a more rational market environment [6][9]. Group 6: Global LNG Supply - Global LNG supply is expected to expand by approximately 6 million tons per year from 2024 to 2025, contributing to downward pressure on prices [6][9]. Group 7: Economic Implications - The decline in natural gas prices is projected to boost the Eurozone's GDP growth by 0.4-0.6 percentage points and reduce inflation by 0.8-1.2 percentage points [6][7]. - Average household energy expenditures in Europe are expected to decrease by 25-30% in winter 2025 compared to the previous year, saving each household between €200-350 [7][9]. Group 8: Lessons Learned - The energy crisis has underscored the importance of energy security through diversification, as reliance on a single energy source poses significant risks [9][10]. - Market mechanisms play a crucial role in resource allocation, as evidenced by the significant price fluctuations in the natural gas market [9][10]. - The crisis has acted as a catalyst for transformation, enabling Europe to achieve renewable energy targets ahead of schedule [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Insights - India is signing more coal power procurement agreements to meet the growing electricity demand, with over 17GW of coal power capacity entering various stages of contract processes [2][3]. - The report highlights the expected increase in coal power capacity in India from 210GW to 307GW by 2035, a growth of 46% [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of certain companies in the coal sector, recommending investments in companies like Lu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, and Jin Control Coal [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report notes a significant increase in coal prices, with European ARA port coal prices rising to $96 per ton (+6.19%) and Newcastle port coal prices reaching $111.45 per ton (+6.60%) [1][34]. - India plans to sign at least 7GW of coal power procurement agreements in the coming months to address peak electricity demand [2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Lu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, Jin Control Coal, and China Shenhua, with a focus on companies showing strong performance and potential for growth [3][6]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Huayang Co. and Gansu Energy Chemical for future growth opportunities [3]. Industry Trends - The coal mining industry is expected to experience a rebound in demand, driven by India's increasing reliance on coal for electricity generation [3][37]. - The report indicates that despite the push for renewable energy, coal will remain a significant part of India's energy mix for the foreseeable future [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key coal companies such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, and recommends attention to China Qinfa for potential turnaround opportunities [2][5]. Core Insights - The Indian government has adjusted the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on coal and related products from 5% to 18%, while removing a compensation cess of 400 INR per ton. This tax reform is expected to enhance tax transparency and management efficiency, potentially reducing the generation cost for Indian power companies by 0.12 INR per kWh [2]. - The report highlights a marginal adjustment in coal prices, with Newcastle coal at $108.25 per ton, down by $3.25 per ton (-2.91%) compared to the previous week [1][29]. - The report indicates a slight increase in natural gas prices, with the Northeast Asia LNG spot price at $11.292 per million British thermal units, up by $0.146 (+1.31%) [1][16]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report notes a decrease in coal prices across various markets, with European ARA coal at $95.75 per ton (-0.52%), and IPE South African Richards Bay coal at $87.3 per ton (-2.20%) [1][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of coal companies with strong performance metrics, recommending companies like Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Huainan Mining for their robust earnings [2][5]. Energy Prices - Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.5 per barrel, down by $2.62 (-3.85%), while WTI crude oil futures were at $61.87 per barrel, down by $2.14 (-3.34%) [1][12]. - The report also highlights the marginal increase in natural gas prices, with the Dutch TTF gas futures at €32.412 per megawatt hour, up by €0.853 (+2.70%) [1][16]. Power Demand - There is a noted marginal increase in coal power demand, indicating a potential recovery in the coal electricity sector [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies including China Qinfa, China Coal Energy, and AnYuan Coal Industry [3][6]. Core Insights - The global coal production is expected to reach a historical high of 924.2 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The Asia-Pacific region continues to expand production, with India and Indonesia increasing output by 7% and 8% respectively [7]. - Global coal demand is projected to grow to 165.06 exajoules (EJ) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. However, demand in Europe is declining rapidly, with a decrease of 7% [7]. - The report highlights the stability of coal prices, with Newcastle port coal prices at $110.85 per ton, up 4.35 dollars per ton (+4.08%) from the previous week [34]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report indicates that coal prices at European ARA ports have risen to $107.25 per ton, an increase of 3.90 dollars per ton (+3.77%) [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal production and demand trends, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is driving growth [7]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and the turnaround story of China Qinfa. Other notable mentions are Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yancoal Energy, which show potential for growth [3][6]. - The report also suggests keeping an eye on AnYuan Coal Industry, which is undergoing significant changes in its shareholder structure and asset swaps [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that global coal trade volume is expected to reach 35.99 EJ in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Indonesia remains the largest coal exporter, accounting for 29.8% of total exports [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal price movements, indicating a stable trend in shipping coal prices [30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for coal mining companies [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the bottom may not be far off. It is essential to grasp the intrinsic attributes of the industry and maintain confidence [3]. - In May 2025, India's coal-fired power generation decreased by 9.5% year-on-year to 113.3 billion kWh, marking the largest year-on-year decline since June 2020 [2]. - The report emphasizes that domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to increased probabilities of both passive and active production cuts [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Prices - As of June 6, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: European ARA port coal price at $89/ton (down 2.2%), Newcastle port coal price at $218.9/ton (unchanged), and IPE South Africa Richards Bay coal futures at $91/ton (up 1.2%) [1][32]. Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal and Energy (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinko Coal Industry (601001.SH) - Buy - Yancoal Energy (600188.SH) - Buy - New Hope Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [6]. Electricity Demand - In May 2025, India's total electricity generation decreased by 5.3% year-on-year to 160.4 billion kWh, with peak demand down 8% to 231,000 MW, primarily due to mild weather conditions [5].

Global Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts a downward trend in global economic growth over the next 12 months, with global GDP growth expected to slow from 3.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, primarily due to structural shocks from U.S. tariffs on global trade [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decline from 2.5% in Q4 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with trade tensions contributing to asymmetric risks [2][3] - The Eurozone and Japan are also expected to experience lower growth rates due to the impact of tariffs on exports and investments [2] U.S. Asset Allocation - Despite slowing global growth, Morgan Stanley suggests a positive outlook for U.S. assets excluding the dollar, recommending increased allocations to U.S. equities, U.S. Treasuries, and investment-grade corporate bonds [4][5] - The firm anticipates a significant depreciation of the dollar, predicting a 9% drop in the DXY index to 91 by mid-2026, as U.S. growth and yields converge with other developed economies [5] - U.S. stock market valuations have adjusted, but uncertainties regarding the full impact of tariffs remain, leading to a preference for high-quality cyclical and defensive stocks [5] Central Bank Policies - Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates until the end of 2025, followed by a reduction of 175 basis points in 2026, which is more aggressive than current market expectations [8] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also projected to continue easing monetary policy due to weak economic growth and declining inflation [8] Commodity Market Trends - The oil market is expected to face oversupply in late 2025 and 2026, leading to a downward revision of Brent crude oil price forecasts by $5-10 per barrel [10] - Natural gas prices in Europe may rise due to low inventory levels and competition for liquefied natural gas, with potential prices reaching €40 per MWh [10] - Gold is favored due to strong central bank demand and inflows into gold ETFs, while industrial metals may face downward pressure from U.S. tariff policies [11] Credit Market Outlook - Optimism in the credit market has increased due to positive news regarding U.S.-China trade relations, prompting Morgan Stanley to lower credit spread forecasts across various regions [12][13] - The firm projects a tightening of credit spreads for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds, reflecting improved market sentiment [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4][7]. Core Insights - The coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is now aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. April's exports were 26.53 million tons, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year decline and a 12.3% month-on-month decline [2][6]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle port coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1), while European ARA port coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6) [35]. The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $87.60 per ton (down 1.4) [35]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yancoal (600188.SH) - Buy - New Hope Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7].