证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 07 年 月 日 煤炭开采 印度政府调整煤炭税收 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2025 年 9 月 5 日，原油价格方面，布伦特 原油期货结算价为 65.5 美元/桶，较上周下降 2.62 美元/桶（-3.85%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 61.87 美元/桶，较上周下降 2.14 美元/桶（- 3.34%）。天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 11.292 美元/百万 英热，较上周上涨 0.146 美元/百万英热（+1.31%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期 货结 算价 32.412 欧 元/ 兆瓦 时 ， 较上 周 上涨 0.853 欧 元/ 兆 瓦时 （+2.70%）；美国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 3.026 美元/百万英热，较上 周上涨 0.01 美元/百万英热（+0.33%）。煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口 煤炭（6000K）到岸价 95.75 美元/吨，较上周下降 0.5 美元/吨（- 0.52%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭（6000K）FOB 价 108.25 美元/吨，较上周 下降 3.25 美元/吨（-2.91%） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies including China Qinfa, China Coal Energy, and AnYuan Coal Industry [3][6]. Core Insights - The global coal production is expected to reach a historical high of 924.2 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The Asia-Pacific region continues to expand production, with India and Indonesia increasing output by 7% and 8% respectively [7]. - Global coal demand is projected to grow to 165.06 exajoules (EJ) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. However, demand in Europe is declining rapidly, with a decrease of 7% [7]. - The report highlights the stability of coal prices, with Newcastle port coal prices at $110.85 per ton, up 4.35 dollars per ton (+4.08%) from the previous week [34]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report indicates that coal prices at European ARA ports have risen to $107.25 per ton, an increase of 3.90 dollars per ton (+3.77%) [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal production and demand trends, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is driving growth [7]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and the turnaround story of China Qinfa. Other notable mentions are Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yancoal Energy, which show potential for growth [3][6]. - The report also suggests keeping an eye on AnYuan Coal Industry, which is undergoing significant changes in its shareholder structure and asset swaps [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that global coal trade volume is expected to reach 35.99 EJ in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Indonesia remains the largest coal exporter, accounting for 29.8% of total exports [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal price movements, indicating a stable trend in shipping coal prices [30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for coal mining companies [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the bottom may not be far off. It is essential to grasp the intrinsic attributes of the industry and maintain confidence [3]. - In May 2025, India's coal-fired power generation decreased by 9.5% year-on-year to 113.3 billion kWh, marking the largest year-on-year decline since June 2020 [2]. - The report emphasizes that domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to increased probabilities of both passive and active production cuts [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Prices - As of June 6, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: European ARA port coal price at $89/ton (down 2.2%), Newcastle port coal price at $218.9/ton (unchanged), and IPE South Africa Richards Bay coal futures at $91/ton (up 1.2%) [1][32]. Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal and Energy (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinko Coal Industry (601001.SH) - Buy - Yancoal Energy (600188.SH) - Buy - New Hope Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [6]. Electricity Demand - In May 2025, India's total electricity generation decreased by 5.3% year-on-year to 160.4 billion kWh, with peak demand down 8% to 231,000 MW, primarily due to mild weather conditions [5].

Global Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts a downward trend in global economic growth over the next 12 months, with global GDP growth expected to slow from 3.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, primarily due to structural shocks from U.S. tariffs on global trade [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decline from 2.5% in Q4 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with trade tensions contributing to asymmetric risks [2][3] - The Eurozone and Japan are also expected to experience lower growth rates due to the impact of tariffs on exports and investments [2] U.S. Asset Allocation - Despite slowing global growth, Morgan Stanley suggests a positive outlook for U.S. assets excluding the dollar, recommending increased allocations to U.S. equities, U.S. Treasuries, and investment-grade corporate bonds [4][5] - The firm anticipates a significant depreciation of the dollar, predicting a 9% drop in the DXY index to 91 by mid-2026, as U.S. growth and yields converge with other developed economies [5] - U.S. stock market valuations have adjusted, but uncertainties regarding the full impact of tariffs remain, leading to a preference for high-quality cyclical and defensive stocks [5] Central Bank Policies - Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates until the end of 2025, followed by a reduction of 175 basis points in 2026, which is more aggressive than current market expectations [8] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also projected to continue easing monetary policy due to weak economic growth and declining inflation [8] Commodity Market Trends - The oil market is expected to face oversupply in late 2025 and 2026, leading to a downward revision of Brent crude oil price forecasts by $5-10 per barrel [10] - Natural gas prices in Europe may rise due to low inventory levels and competition for liquefied natural gas, with potential prices reaching €40 per MWh [10] - Gold is favored due to strong central bank demand and inflows into gold ETFs, while industrial metals may face downward pressure from U.S. tariff policies [11] Credit Market Outlook - Optimism in the credit market has increased due to positive news regarding U.S.-China trade relations, prompting Morgan Stanley to lower credit spread forecasts across various regions [12][13] - The firm projects a tightening of credit spreads for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds, reflecting improved market sentiment [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4][7]. Core Insights - The coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is now aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. April's exports were 26.53 million tons, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year decline and a 12.3% month-on-month decline [2][6]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle port coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1), while European ARA port coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6) [35]. The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $87.60 per ton (down 1.4) [35]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yancoal (600188.SH) - Buy - New Hope Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to pre-increase levels. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. The decline in exports is attributed to the shutdown of Australian coking coal production, which has led to rising prices [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1%), while European ARA coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6%) [3][35]. The report indicates that the coal price adjustment is nearing its end, with potential for recovery as production cuts may occur due to high overseas mining costs [3]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Qinfa (00866.HK), all rated as "Buy." Other recommended stocks include China Coal Energy (601898.SH) and Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) [7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry is at a critical stage of price exploration, with the potential for a rebound as the market adjusts to production cuts and changing demand dynamics [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of increased steel import tariffs in India is likely to boost demand for South African thermal coal, as the tariffs aim to protect domestic steel producers from low-priced imports [2] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, suggesting that these companies may benefit from the current market dynamics [3][6] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of April 30, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) increased by $3.8/ton (+4.1%) to $97.5/ton, while European ARA coal decreased by $1.0/ton (-1.1%) to $93.8/ton [1][37] - South African coal exports are expected to rebound to over 6 million tons due to increased demand from the sponge iron industry [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies such as Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential growth [6] - Specific companies highlighted for their strong performance include China Coal Energy and Jinneng Holding, with EPS forecasts for 2024 ranging from 1.21 to 2.95 [6] Market Trends - The report notes a significant drop in energy prices, with Brent crude oil down by $3.00/barrel (-4.54%) and WTI down by $4.06/barrel (-6.52%) as of the latest review [1][14] - The overall coal market is experiencing fluctuations, with the potential for increased operational costs due to transportation challenges in South Africa [7]