Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the IP licensing and commercialization platform in China, with a strong presence in the concert ticketing service sector, continuously expanding the "Damai" brand influence [2][9]. - The IP derivative business is expected to be the primary growth driver, with significant revenue growth projected in the coming years [9]. - The company aims to accelerate its global strategic layout while leveraging its diverse IP matrix across various genres [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 50.4 billion RMB in 2024 to 109.84 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 19.2% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 285 million RMB in 2024 to 1.59 billion RMB in 2028, reflecting a substantial growth trajectory [3][12]. - The company anticipates an EPS of 0.03, 0.04, and 0.05 RMB for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [9][12]. Revenue Breakdown - The IP derivative business is projected to generate 14.33 billion RMB in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, marking a 73% year-on-year increase [9][12]. - The concert ticketing segment, after the full acquisition of Damai, is expected to achieve revenues of 20.57 billion RMB in 2025, a 236% increase [9][12]. - The film segment is projected to see a decline in revenue, with a forecast of 2.71 billion RMB in 2025, down 9.6% year-on-year [12]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company is set at 1.94 HKD based on an average of PE and PS valuation methods for the fiscal year 2026 [9][13]. - The report references comparable companies with an average PE of 50 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation outlook for the company [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Pictures [4][10]. Core Views - Alibaba Pictures is transitioning to become "Damai Entertainment Holdings Limited," focusing on a "real-life entertainment" strategy, shifting from traditional film to live performances and IP derivatives [7][20]. - The company expects significant revenue growth driven by its live entertainment ticketing and IP derivative businesses, with projections indicating a revenue increase from 5,036 million HKD in FY2024 to 6,702 million HKD in FY2025, representing a 33% year-on-year growth [8][20]. - The report highlights the strong market position of Damai in the ticketing sector, with over 50% market share in the overall ticketing market and over 70% in concert ticketing [9][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Alibaba Pictures is a subsidiary of Alibaba Group, holding a 53.85% stake, and is rebranding to focus on live entertainment and IP derivatives [7][19]. 2. Live Entertainment and Ticketing - Damai is a leading player in the offline ticketing market, with a projected ticket revenue of 57.95 billion CNY in 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.37% [9][30]. - The company has a competitive edge due to its technological capabilities, extensive user base, and strong partnerships with content providers [9][40]. 3. IP Derivatives - The IP derivatives market is experiencing rapid growth, with Alibaba's IP derivative revenue expected to increase significantly, driven by collaborations with major IP brands [9][50]. - The report notes that Alibaba's IP derivative business has seen a 73% year-on-year growth, benefiting from its extensive entertainment and e-commerce ecosystem [9][50]. 4. Financial Analysis and Forecast - The financial forecast indicates a substantial increase in both revenue and net profit, with net profit projected to rise from 285 million HKD in FY2024 to 364 million HKD in FY2025, reflecting a 28% year-on-year growth [8][20]. - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the company's overall valuation at 31.9 billion CNY, corresponding to a target price of 1.17 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 22.9% [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated robust growth in FY25, with significant increases in revenue and adjusted EBITA, despite some challenges in specific segments [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 6.702 billion RMB in FY25, representing a year-over-year increase of 33%, with a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB, up 23%, and a gross margin of 37.0%, down 3.1 percentage points [2]. - Adjusted EBITA reached 809 million RMB, reflecting a 61% year-over-year growth, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 364 million RMB, up 28% [2]. Group 2: Segment Performance - The film technology and investment production and distribution platform generated revenue of 2.71 billion RMB, down 9.6% year-over-year, primarily due to underperformance in film box office returns [3]. - The ticketing platform, 大麦, reported revenue of 2.06 billion RMB, a substantial increase of 236%, maintaining its leading position in the ticketing market with over 3,800 large-scale projects delivered [4]. - The IP derivatives business generated 1.43 billion RMB, up 73% year-over-year, with 阿里鱼 expanding its IP matrix significantly [5]. - The drama production segment earned 500 million RMB, down 16% year-over-year, with a focus on developing over 20 projects currently in production [5]. Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The company recorded a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB, with sales and marketing expenses of 790 million RMB (up 11.2%) and management expenses of 1.24 billion RMB (up 26.5%) [6]. - Operating profit was 650 million RMB, reflecting a 109% year-over-year increase, while losses from equity method investments were 428 million RMB, significantly higher than the previous year's 113 million RMB [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Pictures [2][4] Core Insights - Alibaba Pictures achieved FY25 revenue of 6.702 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% growth, and a gross margin of 37.0%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The growth in the ticketing platform, Damai, was robust, with revenue reaching 2.06 billion RMB, a staggering 236% increase year-on-year, while the IP derivatives business generated 1.43 billion RMB, up 73% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on its core businesses of live performances and IP derivatives, with cautious expectations for film investments [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25 revenue was 6.702 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB and an adjusted EBITA of 809 million RMB, marking a 61% increase year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 364 million RMB, a 28% increase year-on-year [1] Business Segments - Film technology and investment production revenue was 2.71 billion RMB, down 9.6% year-on-year due to underperforming box office results [1] - Damai's ticketing platform maintained its leading position in the market, serving over 3,800 large-scale projects [1] - The IP derivatives business saw significant growth, with Alibaba Fish, the largest IP licensing agency in China, expanding its IP matrix and achieving over 90% growth in retail sales of licensed IP products [1] Profitability and Expenses - The company reported a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB, with sales and marketing expenses of 790 million RMB, and management expenses of 1.24 billion RMB [1] - Operating profit reached 650 million RMB, a 109% increase year-on-year [1] Future Projections - The net profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been revised upwards to 880 million RMB and 1.111 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for FY28 at 1.34 billion RMB [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Pictures [2][4]. Core Insights - Alibaba Pictures achieved FY25 revenue of 6.702 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB, up 23% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 37.0%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points [1]. - The growth of the Damai business remains robust, with revenue from IP derivative products exceeding market expectations, particularly driven by the strong performance of Alibaba's IP licensing platform, Aliyu [1][2]. - The company has a cautious outlook on film investments, while the IP business is expected to maintain high growth [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25 revenue reached 6.702 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB and an adjusted EBITA of 809 million RMB, reflecting a 61% year-on-year growth [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY25 was 364 million RMB, a 28% increase year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - Revenue from film technology and investment production and distribution was 2.71 billion RMB, down 9.6% year-on-year, primarily due to underperforming box office results [1]. - Damai's revenue surged to 2.06 billion RMB, a remarkable 236% increase year-on-year, maintaining its leading position in the live ticketing market [1]. - The IP derivative business generated 1.43 billion RMB, a 73% increase year-on-year, with Aliyu expanding its IP matrix significantly [1]. - Revenue from drama production was 500 million RMB, down 16% year-on-year, with over 20 projects in development [1]. Profitability and Expenses - The company reported a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB, with sales and marketing expenses of 790 million RMB, an 11.2% increase year-on-year [1]. - Operating profit reached 650 million RMB, reflecting a 109% year-on-year increase [1]. Future Projections - The report revises FY26 and FY27 net profit forecasts to 880 million RMB and 1.111 billion RMB, respectively, with a new FY28 forecast of 1.34 billion RMB [2][3].

从2020/21财年经调整EBITA首次扭亏为盈算起，阿里影业（01060）已连续五年实现了EBITA盈利。过 去五年里，阿里影业亲历了电影市场从疫后重启到冷静期，再到行业复苏，过程一波三折。置身其间， 阿里影业依然"摸着石头过河"，蹚出了一条可持续盈利之路。 日前，恰值阿里影业披露了2024/25年度业绩，借此或许正好可以一窥阿里影业究竟是凭何在跌宕的环 境中，仍顺利实现平稳发展。 基本盘稳固，娱乐票务龙头稳步成长 2024年以来，由于市场整体内容供给不足，电影大盘票房回落。尽管如此，阿里影业的综合表现依然可 圈可点。数据显示，2025财年阿里影业实现收入67.02亿元，经调整EBITA为8.09亿元，同比口径分别增 长了33%、61%。 报告期内，阿里影业电影业务稳扎稳打，参与出品、发行了《抓娃娃》《默杀》《封神第二部》《你想 活出怎样的人生》《小小的我》《好东西》《维和防暴队》《云边有个小卖部》《破·地狱》《里斯本 丸沉没》等多部高口碑影片，其中《抓娃娃》票房33.3亿，成为了2024 暑期档票房冠军；《好东西》连 续24天获票房日冠，最终收获7.2亿票房，市场一片叫好！同时，阿里影业还重点发力了引进片 ...