公司点评 | 神火股份 煤炭业务处于底部区域，Q2 总体业绩同比增长超预期 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 21 日 神火股份（000933.SZ）2025H1 点评 事件：公司公告 2025 年半年报，实现营收 204.28 亿元，同比增长 12.12%； 归母净利润为 19.04 亿元，同比下降 16.62%；扣非后归母净利润为 20.10 亿元，同比下降 6.79%。 电解铝业务贡献上半年业绩的主要部分，煤炭业务受制于价格出现较大幅度 下滑。根据公司半年报内容：1）电解铝：2025H1 公司生产铝产品 87.11 万 吨，销售 87.14 万吨，分别完成年度计划的 51.24%、51.26%；负责电解铝 业务的子公司新疆煤电、云南神火分别实现净利润 12.35、9.83 亿元，贡献 了公司上半年净利润的绝大部分。2）煤炭：2025H1 公司生产煤炭 370.78 万吨，销售 372.75 万吨，分别完成年度计划的 51.50%、51.77%；负责煤 炭业务的子公司新龙公司、兴隆公司分别实现净利润 0.83、0.32 亿元，同比 分别下降 70.50%、89.98%，主要原因是煤炭产品价格下降。3） ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices, while the aluminum segment showed signs of profit recovery driven by a decrease in alumina prices [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.12% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.62% - The non-recurring net profit was 2.01 billion yuan, down 6.79% year-on-year - In Q2, total revenue reached 10.797 billion yuan, up 7.99% year-on-year and 12.09% quarter-on-quarter - Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.196 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.22% year-on-year and a significant increase of 68.89% quarter-on-quarter [1] Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the average price of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.7%, while alumina prices fell by 2.1% - The average prices of various coal types saw significant declines, with Yuncheng smokeless coal down 23%, thin coal down 31%, and Pingdingshan thermal coal down 17% year-on-year - In Q2, the average price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 20,196 yuan/ton, down 1.7% year-on-year and 1.2% quarter-on-quarter; alumina averaged 3,071 yuan/ton, down 16% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost Management - The company reduced total selling, administrative, research and development, and financial expenses to 975 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12% - The expense ratio was 4.8%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to reductions in research and selling expenses [3] Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 871,100 tons of aluminum products, a 16% increase, and sold 871,400 tons, also a 16% increase - Coal production reached 3.7078 million tons, a 15% increase, with sales of 3.7275 million tons, an 18% increase - Production of carbon products decreased by 24% to 175,300 tons, while sales fell by 19% to 190,400 tons - Aluminum foil production increased by 28% to 53,000 tons, with sales up 21% to 49,800 tons [4] Investment Insights - The company has strong coal quality and production capacity, with significant earnings elasticity from rising coal prices - Based on projected coal sales of 6.7 million tons in 2024, a 100 yuan/ton price change could impact coal revenue by approximately 600 million yuan - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 5.02 billion yuan, 5.85 billion yuan, and 6.66 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16.6%, 16.5%, and 13.8% respectively - The company is valued using a segment valuation method, with target prices set at 22.9 yuan based on a 13x PE for coal and a 10x PE for electrolytic aluminum [5]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's performance is improving, with significant share buybacks from its controlling shareholder and positive financial results reported for 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, China Aluminum achieved operating revenue of 237.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21% [5][6]. - The net profit for 2024 was 12.4 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 85.38% [5][6]. - The return on equity (ROE) reached 19.26%, an increase of 7.33 percentage points compared to the previous year, outperforming industry benchmarks for three consecutive years [6][5]. - The debt-to-asset ratio was 48.10%, marking the lowest level in the past decade [6]. Share Buyback Activity - As of May 28, the controlling shareholder, China Aluminum Group, and its concerted parties have cumulatively bought back 192 million shares, amounting to approximately 1.007 billion yuan [2][3]. - This buyback represents 1.12% of the company's total issued share capital, achieving the lower limit of their planned buyback amount [2][3]. Market Conditions - The domestic aluminum market continues to grow, with China maintaining its position as the world's largest aluminum producer and consumer for 23 consecutive years [5]. - In 2024, domestic alumina prices ranged from 3,156 yuan/ton to 5,780 yuan/ton, with an average price of 4,084 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.9% [5]. - International alumina prices also saw significant increases, with an average price of 502 USD/ton, up 46% year-on-year [5]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on structural adjustments and enhancing its industrial development advantages [7]. - China Aluminum is advancing its exploration and development of bauxite resources, with a new resource addition of 73.55 million tons in the year [7]. - The company is implementing multiple projects in clean energy and aluminum production, with a notable 45.5% of its electrolytic aluminum production utilizing clean energy [7].