【焦炭、焦煤期货周五收盘大涨，市场情绪向好】截止本周五收盘，焦炭2509合约收于1763元/吨，环 比上周涨16.1%；焦煤2509合约收于1259元/吨，环比上周涨35.9%。本期受宏观政策及市场情绪等因素 影响，价格大幅上扬。 供给上，本周Mysteel统计独立焦企样本焦炭日均产量51.92万吨，环比增0.51万 吨，产能利用率73.61%，较上周增0.71%。焦炭三轮提涨落地，开启第四轮提涨，因钢厂需求支撑、市 场预期向好，日均产量和产能利用率均提升。 需求端，Mysteel调研显示，247家钢厂高炉开工率 83.46%，环比上周持平，同比去年增1.13个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率90.81%，环比上周降0.08个百 分点，同比去年增1.2个百分点；钢厂盈利率63.64%，环比上周增3.47个百分点，同比去年增48.49个百 分点；日均铁水产量242.23万吨，环比上周降0.21万吨，同比去年增2.62万吨，铁水产量仍处高位。 库 存方面，Mysteel调研数据表明，本期247家钢厂焦炭库存639.98万吨，环比增0.99万吨；247家钢厂焦煤 库存799.51万吨，环比增8.41万吨。独立焦企小幅去库 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in coking coal and coke futures prices this week is driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1] Supply Analysis - Coking coal futures (2509 contract) closed at 1,259 CNY/ton, up 35.9% week-on-week; coke futures (2509 contract) closed at 1,763 CNY/ton, up 16.1% week-on-week [1] - Daily average coke production from independent coking enterprises reached 519,200 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.61%, up 0.71% from the previous week [1] - The initiation of the fourth round of price increases for coke, along with strong demand from steel mills, has contributed to the rise in production and capacity utilization [1] Demand Analysis - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week, and up 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The iron-making capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points week-on-week, but up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The profitability of steel mills increased to 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points week-on-week and up 48.49% year-on-year [1] - Daily average molten iron production was 2.4223 million tons, down 2,100 tons week-on-week, but up 26,200 tons year-on-year, indicating sustained high production levels [1] Inventory Analysis - Coking coal inventory at the 247 surveyed steel mills increased to 6.3998 million tons, up 9,900 tons week-on-week; coking coal inventory reached 7.9951 million tons, up 84,100 tons [1] - Independent coking enterprises slightly reduced their inventories, with total coking coal inventory at 9.8538 million tons, up 562,700 tons week-on-week [1] Market Sentiment - The macroeconomic sentiment reflects a "de-involution" trend, with optimistic expectations regarding policies, leading to price increases [1] - The tight supply of coking coal and strong demand for coke, along with the initiation of the fourth round of price increases by coking enterprises, have contributed to positive market sentiment [1] - The market has seen increased activity due to prior valuation adjustments and speculative demand driven by price rebounds [1] Future Considerations - Future attention should be paid to macroeconomic policies, molten iron production, coal mine resumption, and the increase in imported Mongolian coal supply [1] - The strategy for coking coal and coke is expected to be volatile, with no current operations in cross-commodity, spot, or options trading [1]

1. 硅铁2509合约自6月3日低位5014元/吨反弹至今日最高位6166元/吨，累计反弹幅度22.97%。 2. 锰硅2509合约自6月3日低位5312元/吨反弹至今日最高位6414元/吨，累计反弹幅度20.74%。 3. 焦煤2509合约自6月4日低位709元/吨反弹至今日最高位1259元/吨，累计反弹幅度77.56%。 4. 玻璃2509合约自6月3日低位952元/吨反弹至今日最高位1370元/吨，累计反弹幅度43.91%。 5. 焦炭2509合约自6月3日低位1280.5元/吨反弹至今日最高位1774.5元/吨，累计反弹幅度38.58%。 6. 螺纹2510合约自6月3日低位2912元/吨反弹至今日最高位3346元/吨，累计反弹幅度14.89%。 7. 热卷2509合约自6月3日低位3026元/吨反弹至今日最高位3496元/吨，累计反弹幅度15.53%。 （截至今日14:40数据，涨幅以结算价计算） 金十期货整理 | 自6月3日以来，黑色系多品种低位反弹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on supply contraction expectations in various industries, particularly focusing on coal and other commodities, which have shown significant price increases in the futures market due to anticipated production restrictions [1][7][12]. Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Coal futures, particularly the焦煤期货主力2509 contract, surged by 11% on July 23, with a monthly increase exceeding 34% [1]. - Other commodities have also seen price increases, with多晶硅2509 rising over 50% and焦炭2509 increasing nearly 20% since July [3]. - The glass futures market has experienced a rise of approximately 20% since July, while the actual spot price of glass has only increased by about 7% [6][15]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" trend is spreading from the photovoltaic and steel industries to coal and building materials, indicating a broader market response [5]. - The current market reaction is primarily speculative, with actual spot markets not reflecting the same intensity as futures markets [6][17]. - The central government's focus on eliminating low-price competition and promoting quality improvements is expected to lead to more structured production policies [9][10]. Group 3: Future Expectations and Uncertainties - The implementation of stricter production regulations could lead to a significant reduction in coal output, with estimates suggesting a potential decrease of 43 million tons in Inner Mongolia alone [10]. - The upcoming release of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, is anticipated to further influence commodity prices [11][12]. - The actual impact of the "anti-involution" policies on supply and pricing remains uncertain, with market participants closely monitoring the situation [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends, with aluminum alloy rising over 4% and styrene (EB) rising over 2%. In terms of declines, stainless steel (SS), zinc, urea, and nickel fell over 1% [4]. - The macro - environment has some interference on copper prices, but supply supports copper prices, and copper prices will continue to operate at a high level. Aluminum prices will also remain high in the short - term despite the weakening cost support. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and lithium prices will have a narrow - range oscillation. Iron ore, coking coal, and other commodities will have short - term oscillations [6][8][10][13]. 3. Summary by Contracts Metal Contracts - **沪铜2507合约 (Shanghai Copper 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated slightly down today. Macro factors interfere, but supply supports. Will continue to operate at a high level, with a support level of 78,500 [6]. - **沪铝2507合约 (Shanghai Aluminum 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated and closed down. Alumina price dropped, weakening cost support, but demand is expected to pick up. Will continue to operate at a high level, with a support level of 20,000 [8]. - **沪铅2507合约 (Shanghai Lead 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Considering the weakening downstream demand and stable supply, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term. Resistance is 17,200, and support is 16,400 [10]. - **碳酸锂2507合约 (Lithium Carbonate 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated up today. Downstream production in June exceeded expectations, but supply is expected to increase, and the fundamentals remain in surplus. Expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, short - term wait - and - see. Resistance is 64,000 [13]. - **沪镍2507合约 (Shanghai Nickel 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Upstream price support, but demand is weak. Short - term oscillation. Resistance is 125,000, and support is 120,000 [22]. - **不锈钢2507合约 (Stainless Steel 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Production decreased, and downstream expectations are weak. Short - term oscillation. Resistance is 13,500, and support is 12,500 [23]. Energy and Chemical Contracts - **铁矿2509合约 (Iron Ore 2509 Contract)**: The main contract dropped. Iron water production decreased for three consecutive weeks, and demand expectations are weak. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 700, and support is 600 [15]. - **焦煤2509合约 (Coking Coal 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated up. There is an increased policy risk for Mongolian coal exports, but supply is still loose. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 800, and support is 600 [16]. - **焦炭2509合约 (Coke 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated up. Cost support weakened, and three rounds of price cuts were implemented. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 1,500, and support is 1,100 [18]. - **螺纹2510合约 (Rebar 2510 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Market trading weakened, and iron water production decreased. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 3,100, and support is 2,900 [20]. - **天胶2509合约 (Natural Rubber 2509 Contract)**: Narrowly rose within the day, but the increase was limited. The short - term market lacks major positive support, and the price will oscillate at a low level [25]. - **PTA2509合约 (PTA 2509 Contract)**: Continued the previous oscillation pattern within the day. The current supply - demand fundamentals have little change, and the market follows the trend of crude oil [28]. - **EG2509合约 (Ethylene Glycol 2509 Contract)**: Continued to oscillate at a low level within the day. The short - term fundamentals have little change, and the price oscillates around the 40 - day moving average [30]. - **塑料2509合约 (Plastic 2509 Contract)**: The price rebounded slightly due to short - covering, but the increase was limited. The short - term market may test the pressure of the 20 - day and 40 - day moving averages. If it cannot break through effectively, it will oscillate at a low level [32]. - **PP2509合约 (Polypropylene 2509 Contract)**: The price rebounded slightly due to short - covering, but the increase was limited. The current market lacks major positive guidance, and the price will oscillate at a low level [35]. - **纯碱2509合约 (Soda Ash 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 0.41% within the day and reduced positions by 64,797 lots. It stopped falling and rebounded, but the sustainability needs to be observed [36]. - **玻璃2509合约 (Glass 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 0.7% within the day and reduced positions by 16,128 lots. The environmental protection coal - to - gas requirement in Shahe is unfavorable to production. It stopped falling and rebounded, but the total production capacity of the relevant devices is limited, so the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed [40]. - **尿素2509合约 (Urea 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 1.24% within the day and increased positions by 2,976 lots. The export is settled, and the positive factors are exhausted. The price will maintain a bearish trend [42]. - **烧碱2509合约 (Caustic Soda 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it oscillated within the day and reduced positions by 17,752 lots. Short - term oscillation and decline [43]. Agricultural Contracts - **豆粕2509合约 (Soybean Meal 2509 Contract)**: Domestic two - meal contracts increased positions and prices. The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to increase positions by 27,000 lots and closed up 0.66%. The supply of soybean meal continues to increase, but the procurement enthusiasm of middle - and - downstream enterprises is average. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 3,000 [45]. - **菜粕2509合约 (Rapeseed Meal 2509 Contract)**: Domestic two - meal contracts increased positions and prices. The main 2509 contract of rapeseed meal increased positions by more than 10,000 lots for the first time in a month and closed up 1.08%. As of the end of the 23rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China decreased to 14,000 tons. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 2,700 [47]. - **豆油2509合约 (Soybean Oil 2509 Contract)**: Narrowly oscillated. The main contract reached a more than two - week high of 7,796 yuan/ton before noon and then oscillated down, closing down 0.05%. The high soybean crushing volume of oil mills leads to large soybean oil output, and the supply is expected to be loose. Support: 7,600, Pressure: 8,300 [50]. - **棕榈油2509合约 (Palm Oil 2509 Contract)**: The BMD crude palm oil futures declined on Tuesday. During the production - increasing season, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased again in May, but the export increased more than expected. Affected by the double - increase of production and inventory, the futures oscillated weakly. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 9,000 [53]. - **菜油2509合约 (Rapeseed Oil 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated today, and the main contract closed up 0.40%. As of the 23rd week, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 882,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 14,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 75.42%. Support: 8,900, Pressure: 9,700 [55]. - **玉米2507合约 (Corn 2507 Contract)**: Dalian corn futures continued to rise today, reaching a one - month high. The main contract closed at 2,379 points, up 1.19%. The news of Henan starting the minimum purchase price implementation plan for wheat continued to boost the corn futures price. Support: 2,200, Pressure: 2,450 [56]. - **生猪2509合约 (Live Pig 2509 Contract)**: The main 09 contract rose 1.08% today. The supply is in the capacity - realization period, and the pressure of short - term supply increases. After the festival, the demand declines, and the fundamentals are under pressure. However, the downside space of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly at a low level. The predicted range for the next trading day is 13,550 - 13,650. Support: 13,500, Pressure: 14,000 [57][58]. - **苹果2510合约 (Apple 2510 Contract)**: Oscillated within the day, with a decline of 0.46%. The spot market faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and the spot price is stable in the short - term. The expectation of a large - scale production reduction is not high, and the price center moves down. Support: 7,500, Pressure: 8,000 [60]. - **鸡蛋2507合约 (Egg 2507 Contract)**: Rose 0.25% today. The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, and the supply continues to be released. After the festival, the demand declines, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. It is expected to oscillate weakly. The predicted range for the next trading day is 2,830 - 2,860. Support: 2,800, Pressure: 3,000 [61]. - **棉花2509合约 (Cotton 2509 Contract)**: The CF2509 contract closed up 0.41%. By the end of May, China's cotton commercial inventory was still decreasing but remained higher than last year. If the inventory continues to decline, there may be speculation about inventory in the third quarter. The downstream operating rate has declined again, and the yarn inventory of textile enterprises is high. Pay attention to the guidance of the USDA supply - demand report in June. Support: 13,000, Pressure: 13,500 [64]. - **白糖2509合约 (Sugar 2509 Contract)**: The SR2509 contract closed down 0.24%. The decline in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of May was far less than expected, providing no upward drive for raw sugar. Chinese sugar - making groups sold well in April and have a willingness to support prices, but there is an expectation of increased imports after June, which may suppress the Zhengzhou sugar futures price. Support: 5,750, Pressure: 5,850 [66]. - **花生2510合约 (Peanut 2510 Contract)**: The PK2510 contract closed down 0.29%. The sowing rhythm and reduced import volume may affect the supply of the 10 - contract, but peanuts are still in the expansion - planting cycle, and the supply is not tight. The height of the unilateral rebound is restricted. Support: 8,300, Pressure: 8,500 [67]. - **原木2507合约 (Log 2507 Contract)**: The LG2507 contract closed down 0.06%. The fundamentals of logs have no prominent contradictions, and domestic traders are generally at a loss due to the inverted price between domestic and foreign markets. Pay attention to the spot prices at home and abroad and the arrival rhythm of subsequent shipments and port pressure. The price has no upward drive for now and is expected to oscillate. Support: 750, Pressure: 800 [68][69]. Energy - Related Contracts - **原油2507合约 (Crude Oil 2507 Contract)**: The SC2507 contract rose 1.27%. The increase in production of OPEC+ countries in July is 411,000 barrels per day, which is in line with expectations. It is in a state of less - than - expected negative impact and may continue to rebound in the short - term. Support: 400, Pressure: 470 [70]. - **燃料油2507合约 (Fuel Oil 2507 Contract)**: The FU2507 contract closed up 0.85%. Supported by seasonal power - generation demand and the strong downstream marine fuel oil market, the Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short - term. However, the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed, and the concentrated maintenance of domestic refineries in May will put pressure on the operating rate of secondary processing units. Support: 2,500, Pressure: 3,000 [71]. Shipping Contract - **集运欧线2508合约 (Container Shipping to Europe 2508 Contract)**: On June 10, the 8 - month contract of container shipping to Europe dropped 0.95%, reporting 2,042.1 points. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index rebounded significantly. The settlement freight index of European routes rose to 1,622.81 points, a month - on - month increase of 29.5%; the settlement freight index of US - West routes rose to 2,185.08 points, an increase of 27.2%. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be seen [73].

Group 1: Coking Coal - China officially reduced tariffs on U.S. imports starting April 14, but this macroeconomic positive has not reversed the weak trend in coking coal [1] - Spot prices for coking coal continue to decline slightly, with futures showing a significant backwardation structure due to pessimistic market expectations [1] - Domestic coal production remains high as mines continue to resume operations, while imported coal volumes are recovering from low levels, but profits from sea freight coal imports remain negative [1] - Coking plant operations have slightly increased, but downstream pig iron production shows signs of peaking, leading to cautious purchasing behavior among downstream users [1] - Coal inventory levels remain high, putting pressure on prices, with port inventories also accumulating [1] - The recommended strategy is to short coking coal futures at high prices and maintain an arbitrage position of long hot-rolled steel and short coking coal [1] Group 2: Coking Coke - After a brief price increase, major steel mills have reduced coking coke prices, leading to a weak market performance [2] - Coking enterprises are experiencing good orders due to high pig iron production, which has improved coking profits [2] - The inventory levels at coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories have slightly declined, but overall downstream replenishment demand remains cautious [2] - The recommended strategy is to short coking coke futures at high prices and maintain an arbitrage position of long hot-rolled steel and short coking coke [2]