Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the overnight night - market, domestic futures showed a positive trend overall, while international oil prices declined slightly, and other commodities had mixed performances. In the financial market, A - share listed companies' performance was differentiated, and the brokerage industry had good performance. The domestic industrial product futures prices were rebounding, and the scale of bond ETFs reached a new high. [2][3][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: Most domestic futures contracts closed higher on Friday night. Soda ash and glass rose over 4%, coking coal rose over 3%, and several other commodities like PVC and caustic soda rose over 2%. However, soybeans and cotton declined slightly. [2] - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 0.30% to $3355.50 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 0.25%; COMEX silver futures rose 0.32% to $38.43 per ounce. [2] - International oil prices: WTI crude futures fell 0.30% to $66.03 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 3.54%; Brent crude futures fell 0.42% to $69.23 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.61%. [3] - London base metals: All London base metals closed higher. LME zinc rose 3.18% and 3.12% weekly; LME aluminum rose 2.33% and 1.34% weekly. [4] - International agricultural products: Most international agricultural product futures rose. US soybeans rose 0.56%, US corn rose 1.74%, US soybean oil fell 0.75%, US soybean meal rose 1.97%, and US wheat rose 2.53%. [5] Important News Macroeconomic News - Trump criticized the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, believing it was harming the real estate market. He thought the US should have a 1% interest rate. [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries. [8] - Shipping indices declined. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 86.39 points, and the China Containerized Freight Index fell 0.8%. [8] - The US - China economic and trade relationship has experienced ups and downs, but both sides are still important trading partners, and cooperation is the right path. [9] - The government will regulate the new - energy vehicle industry competition order. [9] - The July auto market demand weakened, and the expected monthly sales of passenger cars were about 1.9 million. [11] - The US and the EU have disputes over tariffs, and the EU is preparing a retaliatory plan. [11] - Iran will hold a new round of negotiations with three European countries. [12] - The third - round Russia - Ukraine negotiation will be held in Istanbul. [13] - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors emphasized the importance of central bank independence and the challenges faced by the global economy. [16] - China will crack down on the smuggling of strategic minerals. [17] Energy and Chemical Futures - The EU extended the natural - gas storage requirement for two more years. [19] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the delivery area and premium/discount for propylene futures. [21] - Methanol inventory in East China ports increased, and rubber inventory in Osaka Exchange decreased. [22] - The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting the banking, energy, and military - industrial sectors. [23] Metal Futures - Mining activities in Myanmar's Wa State are expected to resume. [25] - The average price of polysilicon was 46.2 yuan/kg, with a profit of 6.1 yuan/kg. [26] - Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. [27] - A nickel - iron smelting park in Indonesia suspended production, which may affect the monthly output by about 1900 metal tons. [29] Black - Series Futures - A coal mine in Changzhi restarted production but has not reached full capacity. [31] - Canada will adjust its steel import tariff policy, which China opposes. [31] - Coal mines in Lvliang stopped or reduced production due to environmental inspections and production problems. [31] - The China Iron and Steel Association proposed measures to prevent over - capacity. [32] - Steel inventories increased, with an increase in construction steel and a decrease in hot - rolled coils. [32] Agricultural Product Futures - Imported cotton inventory decreased. [35] - Oil - mill soybean crushing volume was lower than expected. [35] - Australia may export experimental rapeseed to China. [35] - Pig - farming profits changed, with self - breeding and self - raising still profitable but at a lower level, and purchasing piglets resulting in losses. [35] - Sugar prices remained high in Pakistan. [35] - Trichlorosucrose producers had extended shutdowns. [36] - Malaysian palm - oil exports decreased in July. [37] Financial Market Finance - Among the 1540 A - share listed companies that disclosed semi - annual performance forecasts, 43.77% were positive, and the performance was differentiated. [40] - All 29 listed securities firms that disclosed semi - annual performance forecasts were positive, mainly due to the improvement of core business income and the recovery of overseas business. [40] - CITIC Securities believes that A - shares are becoming an incremental market, and post - mid - report season overseas investment may be a new direction. [40] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the A - share market's structural differentiation will continue, and new tracks are crucial. [41] Industry - The Third China International Supply - Chain Promotion Expo was successful, with more participants and cooperation agreements. [42] - The Beijing real - estate market had an uneven recovery in the first half of 2025. [43] Overseas - The US Treasury Secretary advised Trump not to fire the Fed Chairman. [45] - Japan's ruling coalition lost its majority in the Senate. [45] - Russia and Ukraine may hold a new round of negotiations in Istanbul. [45] International Stock Market - The next two weeks are the peak period for US stock earnings reports. [46] - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun has been reducing his holdings of NVIDIA stocks, with a cumulative套现 of $215 million since June 20. [46][47] Commodity - Domestic industrial product futures prices are rebounding, and they are expected to continue the upward trend, but there are risks of adjustment after rapid price increases. [48] Bond - The scale of the first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs has grown significantly, and the total scale of bond ETFs may have exceeded 5000 billion yuan. [49]

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with the shipping European route rising over 8% [1] - Industrial silicon increased by over 2%, while polysilicon rose by more than 1% [1] - On the downside, fuel oil and lithium carbonate fell by more than 2%, and red dates and styrene (EB) dropped nearly 2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends, with aluminum alloy rising over 4% and styrene (EB) rising over 2%. In terms of declines, stainless steel (SS), zinc, urea, and nickel fell over 1% [4]. - The macro - environment has some interference on copper prices, but supply supports copper prices, and copper prices will continue to operate at a high level. Aluminum prices will also remain high in the short - term despite the weakening cost support. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and lithium prices will have a narrow - range oscillation. Iron ore, coking coal, and other commodities will have short - term oscillations [6][8][10][13]. 3. Summary by Contracts Metal Contracts - **沪铜2507合约 (Shanghai Copper 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated slightly down today. Macro factors interfere, but supply supports. Will continue to operate at a high level, with a support level of 78,500 [6]. - **沪铝2507合约 (Shanghai Aluminum 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated and closed down. Alumina price dropped, weakening cost support, but demand is expected to pick up. Will continue to operate at a high level, with a support level of 20,000 [8]. - **沪铅2507合约 (Shanghai Lead 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Considering the weakening downstream demand and stable supply, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term. Resistance is 17,200, and support is 16,400 [10]. - **碳酸锂2507合约 (Lithium Carbonate 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated up today. Downstream production in June exceeded expectations, but supply is expected to increase, and the fundamentals remain in surplus. Expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, short - term wait - and - see. Resistance is 64,000 [13]. - **沪镍2507合约 (Shanghai Nickel 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Upstream price support, but demand is weak. Short - term oscillation. Resistance is 125,000, and support is 120,000 [22]. - **不锈钢2507合约 (Stainless Steel 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Production decreased, and downstream expectations are weak. Short - term oscillation. Resistance is 13,500, and support is 12,500 [23]. Energy and Chemical Contracts - **铁矿2509合约 (Iron Ore 2509 Contract)**: The main contract dropped. Iron water production decreased for three consecutive weeks, and demand expectations are weak. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 700, and support is 600 [15]. - **焦煤2509合约 (Coking Coal 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated up. There is an increased policy risk for Mongolian coal exports, but supply is still loose. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 800, and support is 600 [16]. - **焦炭2509合约 (Coke 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated up. Cost support weakened, and three rounds of price cuts were implemented. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 1,500, and support is 1,100 [18]. - **螺纹2510合约 (Rebar 2510 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Market trading weakened, and iron water production decreased. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 3,100, and support is 2,900 [20]. - **天胶2509合约 (Natural Rubber 2509 Contract)**: Narrowly rose within the day, but the increase was limited. The short - term market lacks major positive support, and the price will oscillate at a low level [25]. - **PTA2509合约 (PTA 2509 Contract)**: Continued the previous oscillation pattern within the day. The current supply - demand fundamentals have little change, and the market follows the trend of crude oil [28]. - **EG2509合约 (Ethylene Glycol 2509 Contract)**: Continued to oscillate at a low level within the day. The short - term fundamentals have little change, and the price oscillates around the 40 - day moving average [30]. - **塑料2509合约 (Plastic 2509 Contract)**: The price rebounded slightly due to short - covering, but the increase was limited. The short - term market may test the pressure of the 20 - day and 40 - day moving averages. If it cannot break through effectively, it will oscillate at a low level [32]. - **PP2509合约 (Polypropylene 2509 Contract)**: The price rebounded slightly due to short - covering, but the increase was limited. The current market lacks major positive guidance, and the price will oscillate at a low level [35]. - **纯碱2509合约 (Soda Ash 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 0.41% within the day and reduced positions by 64,797 lots. It stopped falling and rebounded, but the sustainability needs to be observed [36]. - **玻璃2509合约 (Glass 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 0.7% within the day and reduced positions by 16,128 lots. The environmental protection coal - to - gas requirement in Shahe is unfavorable to production. It stopped falling and rebounded, but the total production capacity of the relevant devices is limited, so the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed [40]. - **尿素2509合约 (Urea 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 1.24% within the day and increased positions by 2,976 lots. The export is settled, and the positive factors are exhausted. The price will maintain a bearish trend [42]. - **烧碱2509合约 (Caustic Soda 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it oscillated within the day and reduced positions by 17,752 lots. Short - term oscillation and decline [43]. Agricultural Contracts - **豆粕2509合约 (Soybean Meal 2509 Contract)**: Domestic two - meal contracts increased positions and prices. The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to increase positions by 27,000 lots and closed up 0.66%. The supply of soybean meal continues to increase, but the procurement enthusiasm of middle - and - downstream enterprises is average. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 3,000 [45]. - **菜粕2509合约 (Rapeseed Meal 2509 Contract)**: Domestic two - meal contracts increased positions and prices. The main 2509 contract of rapeseed meal increased positions by more than 10,000 lots for the first time in a month and closed up 1.08%. As of the end of the 23rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China decreased to 14,000 tons. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 2,700 [47]. - **豆油2509合约 (Soybean Oil 2509 Contract)**: Narrowly oscillated. The main contract reached a more than two - week high of 7,796 yuan/ton before noon and then oscillated down, closing down 0.05%. The high soybean crushing volume of oil mills leads to large soybean oil output, and the supply is expected to be loose. Support: 7,600, Pressure: 8,300 [50]. - **棕榈油2509合约 (Palm Oil 2509 Contract)**: The BMD crude palm oil futures declined on Tuesday. During the production - increasing season, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased again in May, but the export increased more than expected. Affected by the double - increase of production and inventory, the futures oscillated weakly. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 9,000 [53]. - **菜油2509合约 (Rapeseed Oil 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated today, and the main contract closed up 0.40%. As of the 23rd week, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 882,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 14,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 75.42%. Support: 8,900, Pressure: 9,700 [55]. - **玉米2507合约 (Corn 2507 Contract)**: Dalian corn futures continued to rise today, reaching a one - month high. The main contract closed at 2,379 points, up 1.19%. The news of Henan starting the minimum purchase price implementation plan for wheat continued to boost the corn futures price. Support: 2,200, Pressure: 2,450 [56]. - **生猪2509合约 (Live Pig 2509 Contract)**: The main 09 contract rose 1.08% today. The supply is in the capacity - realization period, and the pressure of short - term supply increases. After the festival, the demand declines, and the fundamentals are under pressure. However, the downside space of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly at a low level. The predicted range for the next trading day is 13,550 - 13,650. Support: 13,500, Pressure: 14,000 [57][58]. - **苹果2510合约 (Apple 2510 Contract)**: Oscillated within the day, with a decline of 0.46%. The spot market faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and the spot price is stable in the short - term. The expectation of a large - scale production reduction is not high, and the price center moves down. Support: 7,500, Pressure: 8,000 [60]. - **鸡蛋2507合约 (Egg 2507 Contract)**: Rose 0.25% today. The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, and the supply continues to be released. After the festival, the demand declines, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. It is expected to oscillate weakly. The predicted range for the next trading day is 2,830 - 2,860. Support: 2,800, Pressure: 3,000 [61]. - **棉花2509合约 (Cotton 2509 Contract)**: The CF2509 contract closed up 0.41%. By the end of May, China's cotton commercial inventory was still decreasing but remained higher than last year. If the inventory continues to decline, there may be speculation about inventory in the third quarter. The downstream operating rate has declined again, and the yarn inventory of textile enterprises is high. Pay attention to the guidance of the USDA supply - demand report in June. Support: 13,000, Pressure: 13,500 [64]. - **白糖2509合约 (Sugar 2509 Contract)**: The SR2509 contract closed down 0.24%. The decline in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of May was far less than expected, providing no upward drive for raw sugar. Chinese sugar - making groups sold well in April and have a willingness to support prices, but there is an expectation of increased imports after June, which may suppress the Zhengzhou sugar futures price. Support: 5,750, Pressure: 5,850 [66]. - **花生2510合约 (Peanut 2510 Contract)**: The PK2510 contract closed down 0.29%. The sowing rhythm and reduced import volume may affect the supply of the 10 - contract, but peanuts are still in the expansion - planting cycle, and the supply is not tight. The height of the unilateral rebound is restricted. Support: 8,300, Pressure: 8,500 [67]. - **原木2507合约 (Log 2507 Contract)**: The LG2507 contract closed down 0.06%. The fundamentals of logs have no prominent contradictions, and domestic traders are generally at a loss due to the inverted price between domestic and foreign markets. Pay attention to the spot prices at home and abroad and the arrival rhythm of subsequent shipments and port pressure. The price has no upward drive for now and is expected to oscillate. Support: 750, Pressure: 800 [68][69]. Energy - Related Contracts - **原油2507合约 (Crude Oil 2507 Contract)**: The SC2507 contract rose 1.27%. The increase in production of OPEC+ countries in July is 411,000 barrels per day, which is in line with expectations. It is in a state of less - than - expected negative impact and may continue to rebound in the short - term. Support: 400, Pressure: 470 [70]. - **燃料油2507合约 (Fuel Oil 2507 Contract)**: The FU2507 contract closed up 0.85%. Supported by seasonal power - generation demand and the strong downstream marine fuel oil market, the Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short - term. However, the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed, and the concentrated maintenance of domestic refineries in May will put pressure on the operating rate of secondary processing units. Support: 2,500, Pressure: 3,000 [71]. Shipping Contract - **集运欧线2508合约 (Container Shipping to Europe 2508 Contract)**: On June 10, the 8 - month contract of container shipping to Europe dropped 0.95%, reporting 2,042.1 points. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index rebounded significantly. The settlement freight index of European routes rose to 1,622.81 points, a month - on - month increase of 29.5%; the settlement freight index of US - West routes rose to 2,185.08 points, an increase of 27.2%. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be seen [73].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts mostly rose at midday, with significant gains in shipping and chemical sectors [1] Group 1: Futures Market Performance - The main contract for shipping on the European route hit the daily limit, increasing by 15.99% [1] - Styrene (EB) rose by over 4%, while methanol, aluminum oxide, and ethylene glycol (EG) each increased by over 3.5% [1] - In contrast, urea experienced a decline of nearly 1% [1]

Group 1 - The majority of domestic futures main contracts have risen, with the European shipping index increasing by over 10% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG) and styrene (EB) have both risen by over 4% [1] - Butadiene rubber and bottle chips have increased by over 3% [1] Group 2 - In terms of declines, polysilicon has dropped by nearly 2% [1] - Urea has decreased by nearly 1% [1]