Group 1 - The core point of the article is the recent decision by Trump to extend the tariff suspension on certain Chinese goods for 90 days, indicating a shift in the U.S. stance amid economic pressures [1][3] - The U.S. manufacturing data is declining, consumer prices are rising, and there is significant inventory buildup, leading to concerns about unemployment potentially exceeding 1.2% [3] - The bilateral trade between the U.S. and China has surpassed $450 billion in the first half of the year, making the tariff suspension beneficial for Chinese exporters [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market rose by 1.5% on the day the tariff suspension was announced, providing a respite for Chinese exporters [5] - The negotiations in Stockholm between the U.S. and China covered critical issues such as chips and energy, suggesting a more pragmatic approach to future competition and cooperation [5][7] - The geopolitical context includes Trump's recent meeting with Putin and the weakening of NATO alliances, making a prolonged trade war with China less favorable [5] Group 3 - China initiated anti-dumping investigations against Canadian canola seeds, with a preliminary ruling indicating a dumping margin of 75.8%, impacting Canadian agriculture significantly [8][10] - China also imposed anti-dumping measures on Japanese halogenated butyl rubber, affecting Japan's supply chains and economic interests [10] - The Chinese government retaliated against the EU by implementing sanctions on two financial institutions, highlighting the use of legal measures alongside economic tools [10][11] Group 4 - The trade war reflects a profound change in the global trade landscape, with tariffs imposed by the U.S. on various countries, leading to retaliatory measures and economic strain on allies [11][12] - The EU, Canada, and Japan are facing economic challenges due to U.S. tariffs, prompting them to seek alternative markets and partnerships [14] - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China during the 90-day period may reshape the global trade system, with China taking actions to protect its interests [14][15]

Group 1 - The extension of the US-China tariff truce for 90 days has led to immediate retaliatory measures from China against Canada and Japan [1][3] - China imposed a temporary anti-dumping deposit of 75.8% on Canadian canola seeds, following a year-long investigation that concluded Canada engaged in dumping practices [1][3] - The canola seed industry in Canada, which exports approximately CAD 5 billion annually to China, is significantly impacted by this high deposit, leading to a drop in canola prices [3][5] Group 2 - China also targeted Japan, imposing anti-dumping measures on halogenated butyl rubber, with Canadian companies facing a maximum deposit of 40.5% and Japanese companies 30.1% [3][5] - Japan's recent cooperation with the US to limit China's strategic advantages, including reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths and restricting semiconductor exports, has contributed to its negative standing in China [3][5] - The Chinese government has indicated that countries aligning with the US against China will face consequences, as seen in the recent actions against Canada and Japan [5][8] Group 3 - In addition to Canada and Japan, China has taken retaliatory measures against the EU, specifically targeting two Lithuanian banks due to sanctions imposed by the EU on Chinese financial institutions [5][6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's actions against the EU are framed as a response to perceived violations of international law and damage to Chinese enterprises [6][8] - China's series of retaliatory measures signal a clear message that while negotiations with the US may continue, other nations should reconsider their alignment with US policies that harm Chinese interests [8]

Core Viewpoint - China's recent countermeasures against countries perceived as adversaries have shifted the narrative, with some Western experts now predicting that China will emerge as the next global leader [1][20][29]. Group 1: Countermeasures Against Adversaries - On August 12, China's Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping preliminary ruling against Canadian canola seeds, imposing a 75.8% tariff, which directly impacts Canada's agricultural sector [1][8]. - Japan faced a similar fate with a 26% to 40% anti-dumping duty on halogenated butyl rubber, a critical material for vaccine vials, causing panic among Japanese chemical companies [4][8]. - Two EU banks in Lithuania were added to China's countermeasure list, prohibiting domestic institutions from engaging in transactions with them, highlighting the repercussions of Lithuania's alignment with U.S. anti-China policies [6][8]. Group 2: Reactions from Affected Countries - The Canadian agricultural sector reacted urgently to the tariffs, while Japanese chemical firms began to express concern over their market positions [8]. - Within the EU, there are emerging doubts regarding the decisions made to align with U.S. sanctions, as these actions could adversely affect European businesses [14][18]. Group 3: Expert Predictions and Analysis - Melamed, a prominent figure in the financial sector, stated that China is poised to become the next world leader, citing its rapid development and innovation capabilities [20][23]. - Historical patterns indicate that shifts in global power dynamics are often driven by changes in production capabilities, with China's manufacturing output now surpassing that of the U.S., Japan, and Germany combined [27][39]. - The combination of China's large population, robust education system, and strategic economic policies positions it favorably for future leadership [29][31]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - China's response to U.S. chip tracking and allied nations' actions has been characterized by a measured approach, utilizing WTO rules for trade remedies rather than emotional reactions [31][39]. - The decision to open rare earth exports to the U.S. under strict conditions reflects a sophisticated strategy that balances cooperation with assertiveness [35][39]. - The ongoing discussions about de-dollarization among various nations indicate a growing recognition of China's economic influence and the potential for a shift away from U.S. dollar dominance [37][39].

Group 1 - Canada has implemented steel tariff quota measures and imposed discriminatory tariffs on products containing "Chinese steel components," leading China to file a lawsuit at the WTO on August 15 [1][5] - The trade dispute between China and Canada has escalated, with China recently announcing temporary anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds [1][5] - The Canadian government has been facing challenges in its trade relations with China since the previous Trudeau administration imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [1][3] Group 2 - Canada has expanded its steel tariff quota and tightened existing quotas, imposing additional taxes on imports exceeding the quota, particularly targeting products containing Chinese steel [3][5] - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and Canada is projected to be approximately CAD 120 billion, with significant steel import and export figures [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has criticized Canada's actions as unilateralism and trade protectionism, which disrupts the stability of global steel supply chains [5]

Group 1 - Canada imposed significant tariffs and quotas on Chinese steel imports, including a 25% tariff, a 50% quota reduction, and a 50% penalty tax [1][4][9] - The U.S. steel imports account for 50% of Canada's steel imports and enjoy zero tariffs, while Chinese steel, which only accounts for 10%, is targeted for harsh penalties [11][24] - The Canadian government, facing a trade deficit of CAD 7.1 billion and a 15.7% drop in steel exports, is under pressure to find a scapegoat for its economic troubles [6][4][24] Group 2 - The Canadian government's digital services tax has negatively impacted U.S. tech giants, leading to a backlash from the U.S. and forcing Canada to navigate a delicate trade relationship [4][20] - The steel industry in Canada is struggling, with over 40,000 jobs at risk, prompting the government to shift blame to China rather than addressing U.S. trade policies [7][24] - The Canadian steel producers' association supports the government's actions against China, believing it will help regain market share [9][24] Group 3 - China's response to Canada's tariffs included imposing a 100% tariff on Canadian canola and halting large-scale imports, significantly impacting Canadian farmers [33][31] - Canada is heavily reliant on China for its canola exports, with 70% of its canola being sold to China, making the agricultural sector vulnerable to trade disputes [29][31] - The crisis in the canola industry has led to financial distress for farmers, with unsold products and plummeting prices [35][33] Group 4 - The trade tensions have resulted in a mixed impact on Canadian stock markets, with steel stocks rising while agricultural sectors face declines [54][52] - The Canadian government's approach to trade, particularly its targeting of China, is seen as shortsighted and detrimental to its own economic interests [51][56] - The overall economic landscape in Canada is shifting, with potential long-term consequences for both the steel and agricultural industries due to the ongoing trade disputes [58][56]

Group 1 - The trade negotiations between the US and Canada have reached a deadlock, with the US imposing a 35% tariff on all Canadian goods starting August 1, which has put pressure on the new Canadian Prime Minister Carney [1] - In response to US pressure, Canada has taken a hard stance against China, demanding the cessation of operations of Hikvision Canada under the pretext of "national security" [1] - Canada announced a limit on steel imports from countries without a free trade agreement with Canada, including China, capping imports at half of the 2024 volume, with tariffs up to 50% on excess amounts [1][2] Group 2 - Canada has decided to impose an additional 25% tariff on products from all non-US countries, particularly targeting steel products from China, to protect its domestic steel industry [2] - The Canadian government's actions appear to be aimed at appeasing the US while disappointing China, indicating a shift in Canada's trade policy [2] Group 3 - Despite efforts to improve relations, including increased imports of Canadian crude oil, Canada has continued its aggressive stance, leading to a deterioration in China-Canada relations [4] - China has significantly increased its imports of Canadian crude oil to 7.3 million barrels, a record high, in an attempt to foster cooperation [4] Group 4 - Australia is reportedly close to an agreement allowing its suppliers to export canola seeds to China, which could total between 150,000 to 250,000 tons, signaling a potential shift in trade dynamics [6] - This move by China to allow Australian canola imports is seen as a response to Canada's actions and a way to strengthen ties with Australia [6] Group 5 - Canada, previously a major supplier of canola seeds to China, has seen its market share threatened due to its previous tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which damaged trade relations [9] - China's shift in canola seed contracts from Canada to Australia serves as a warning to Canada about the consequences of its trade policies [9]

Group 1 - Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,650 CNY/ton for June, with the first round inquiry price at 5,500 CNY/ton, down from 5,850 CNY/ton in May [1] - As of June 19, rebar production has turned from decline to increase, with factory inventory decreasing for the fourth consecutive week and social inventory decreasing for the fifteenth consecutive week [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is -23 CNY/ton, with Shanxi's first-grade coke averaging -3 CNY/ton and Shandong's first-grade coke averaging 31 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - Brazilian shipping agency Williams reported that the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports is 2.8539 million tons, down from 2.9104 million tons the previous week [1] - The Canadian Grain Commission reported that as of June 15, canola exports decreased by 17.05% week-on-week to 131,400 tons [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% to 6,988,700 heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5-month high [1] Group 3 - The Singapore Enterprise Development Agency (ESG) reported that as of June 18, fuel oil inventory in Singapore decreased by 2.211 million barrels to 21.503 million barrels, the lowest in five weeks [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 40,400 tons week-on-week (+2.40%), with an increase of 17,200 tons compared to Monday [1] - On June 19, the auction for battery-grade lithium carbonate ended, with 300 tons from Ronghui Lithium Industry and 300 tons from Yongshan Lithium Industry sold at prices of 59,910 CNY/ton and 60,010 CNY/ton respectively [2] Group 4 - Insiders indicate that the photovoltaic industry is expected to see a greater reduction in production in the third quarter, with the operating rate expected to decrease by 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter [2]