Core Viewpoint - The black commodity market has experienced significant price increases, driven by multiple factors including supply concerns and low valuation compared to other commodities [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - All black commodities saw substantial gains, with coking coal and coke contracts both rising by 7.98%, soda ash by 7.53%, glass by 6.1%, and iron ore by 4.09% [8]. - The recent surge in black commodities is attributed to a combination of supply adjustments and market sentiment [9]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Yulin City plans to remove 26 coal mines from the supply guarantee list, reducing production capacity by 19 million tons. This raises concerns about a potential decline in coal supply as the Energy Bureau aims to classify unapproved mines as illegal by June 2025 [8]. - Since 2021, approximately 500 million tons of new coal production capacity has been added, with a significant portion lacking proper documentation, which could lead to a substantial reduction in coal supply if regulations are strictly enforced [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent price increases in black commodities follow a period where other commodities, particularly non-ferrous metals, have been rising, leading to a perceived undervaluation of black commodities [8]. - The influx of traders into the market due to rising prices has created short-term resource tightness, further driving up spot prices and supporting continued price increases in futures [8][9].

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES DAILY" - Report Date: January 8, 2026 - Report Author: GOLDTRUST FUTURES RESEARCH INSTITUTE Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - There are five reasons to be bullish on the glass main contract, including strong supply contraction, cost support, improved demand, clear technical rebound signals, and continuous policy dividends [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has had 14 consecutive positive days and is expected to break through 4100 points tomorrow, with positive capital inflows and a strong short - term trend [7] - The entire precious metal market is experiencing increased volatility, and caution is advised when participating in the gold market [10] - For iron ore, supply is expected to be loose with weak domestic demand support, but it has broken through the previous consolidation platform and a low - buying strategy is recommended [11][12] - For glass, the daily melting volume is decreasing, inventory has accumulated this week, and the main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. A low - buying strategy remains unchanged [14][15] - For methanol, international supply risks are rising, January imports are expected to decline, and short - term prices are expected to be slightly bullish [17] - For pulp, domestic pulp mills are operating normally, port inventories are fluctuating slightly, downstream demand is weak, and the futures market is in a range - bound trend [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass 2605 Contract - Supply: Industry losses have led to capacity reduction. As of January 7, the daily melting volume of float glass has dropped to 151,500 tons, the lowest in history [3] - Cost: The current price is approaching the cash - flow cost range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the stable prices of core raw materials such as liquid caustic soda provide strong cost support [3] - Demand: In 2026, the decline in real estate completion has narrowed and turned positive. Infrastructure special bonds, green building materials policies, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics and automotive glass drive demand growth, and the export market is expanding [3] - Technical: The price has broken through the downward trend line, stood above the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD has formed a golden cross. The 4 - hour level shows a stable support and a bullish pattern [3] - Policy: "14th Five - Year Plan" infrastructure development, green building standard upgrades, and capacity replacement policies are expected to shift the industry from destocking to restocking, with a potential supply - demand gap after the second quarter and a strong expectation of improved industry prosperity [4] Technical Analysis of Various Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The large - cycle trend is intact. After a strong adjustment, it is expected to continue to expand upward tomorrow. A low - buying strategy is recommended [6][7] - **Gold**: The precious metal market is volatile, and caution is needed when participating [10] - **Iron Ore**: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand support is weak, but it has broken through the previous consolidation platform, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [11][12] - **Glass**: The daily melting volume is decreasing, inventory has accumulated this week. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. A low - buying strategy remains unchanged [14][15] - **Methanol**: Port arrivals are delayed, most Iranian plants are shut down, and international geopolitical risks are rising. January imports are expected to decline, and short - term prices are expected to be slightly bullish [17] - **Pulp**: Domestic pulp mills are operating normally, port inventories are fluctuating slightly, downstream demand is weak, and the futures market is in a range - bound trend [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There are five core reasons to be bullish on the glass main contract, including supply contraction, cost support, demand improvement, clear technical rebound signals, and continuous release of policy dividends [2][3][4] - In 2026, the A - share market had a good start with all indices rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index had 12 consecutive positive days. Technically, the daily - line upward trend is intact, and it is recommended to continue to buy on dips [6] - The entire precious metal market has increased volatility, and caution is advised when participating in the gold market [10] - For iron ore, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply is expected to be more abundant. Demand is weak except for exports, and it is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation trading strategy [13][14] - For glass, the daily melting volume is slightly decreasing, inventory has accumulated this week, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged [16][17] - For methanol, international supply risks are increasing, January imports are expected to decline, and short - term prices are mainly oscillating upward [19] - For paper pulp, the inventory at the mainstream Chinese ports has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks, and an oscillating trend is predicted [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Reasons to be Bullish on Glass Futures - Supply contraction: Industry losses are forcing capacity out. As of January 1, the float - glass industry's start - up rate was 72.05%, a 1.59 - percentage - point drop from December 25. Capacity utilization decreased by 1.53% to 75.73%, daily output dropped by 1.99% to 15.15 tons, and weekly output was 107.33 tons, down 0.99% week - on - week and 3.38% year - on - year [3] - Cost support: The current price is approaching the cash - flow cost range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton, and raw material prices are stable, providing strong cost support [3] - Demand improvement: In 2026, the decline in real - estate completion has narrowed to positive growth. Infrastructure special bonds and green building materials policies are driving demand, and emerging sectors such as photovoltaic and automotive glass have growing demand, and the export market is expanding [3] - Technical signals: The price has broken through the downward trend line, stood above the 20 - day moving average, the MACD has formed a golden cross with an expanding red column, and the 4 - hour level support is stable, showing an oscillating and bullish pattern [4] - Policy dividends: The "14th Five - Year Plan" infrastructure development, green building standard upgrades, and capacity replacement policies are expected to shift the industry from destocking to restocking, and a supply - demand gap may appear after the second quarter, with strong expectations of a recovery in industry prosperity [4] 3.2 Technical Analysis of Different Futures 3.2.1 A - share Index Futures - The A - share market had a good start in 2026, with all indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index had 12 consecutive positive days. Technically, the daily - line upward trend is intact. In the short - term, there may be an adjustment after a morning rally tomorrow, but the long - term trend is good. It is recommended to continue to buy on dips [6] 3.2.2 Gold Futures - The entire precious metal market has increased volatility, and caution is advised when participating in the gold market [10] 3.2.3 Iron Ore Futures - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply is expected to be more abundant. Demand is weak except for exports. Technically, it is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation trading strategy, buying at lows and selling at highs [13][14] 3.2.4 Glass Futures - Technically, there was a slight adjustment today, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged. The daily melting volume is slightly decreasing, and inventory has accumulated this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for capacity reduction on the supply side [16][17] 3.2.5 Methanol Futures - In terms of imports, some port arrivals have been delayed, most Iranian facilities have stopped, and international geopolitical risks have increased. It is expected that imports in January will decline. For downstream olefins, some port olefin facilities will stop until January, and new facilities in Shandong are being put into operation. Overall, international supply risks are increasing, January imports are expected to decline, and short - term prices are mainly oscillating upward [19] 3.2.6 Paper Pulp Futures - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese paper - pulp ports was 190.6 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous period, a 4.4% month - on - month decline. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks, and an oscillating trend is predicted [21]

Group 1: Glass Investment Strategy - The current price of the glass 2605 contract is close to the cost line of 1000 yuan/ton, with limited downside space, but bottom - fishing requires strict risk control and waiting for signals [3] - Fundamentally, traditional real - estate demand is weak, dragging down production and sales, but the demand for new tracks such as photovoltaic glass and BIPV has increased by 18% year - on - year, providing long - term support. On the supply side, some production lines in Shahe are under cold repair, and although there is a resumption expectation, the elimination of backward production capacity continues [4] - Technically, attention should be paid to the support range of 1000 - 1005 yuan. Only when the price stabilizes in this range and there are signals such as enlarged trading volume and continuous position reduction can one try to go long with a light position [4] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Analysis - Today, the three major A - share indexes opened and closed lower under the influence of external markets. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but the short - term trend is extreme, and the adjustment seems to be expanding. Bottom - fishing requires caution [8] Group 3: Gold Analysis - After a period of rebound, gold is currently approaching an important resistance level. At this stage, the volatility is increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate for some time [12] Group 4: Iron Ore Analysis - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply has further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real - estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it continued to be weak today and should be treated as a wide - range shock, with high - selling and low - buying [14][15] Group 5: Methanol Analysis - As of November 19, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 147.93 million tons, a decrease of 6.43 million tons from the previous period. Both the East and South China regions saw inventory reduction. This week, the methanol port inventory decreased. With the lack of domestic supply and the back - flow of imported goods, the提货 of social warehouses in East China was good, and the overall downstream rigid demand was stable. One should seize the opportunity of short - term short and long - term long [21] Group 6: Pulp Analysis - The pulp import volume decreased month - on - month in October, and the domestic port inventory showed a downward trend. However, the supply in the market is still abundant. The sporadic publishing tenders of cultural paper downstream have boosted market confidence, but the social demand is flat, the paper mill's gross profit continues to decline, and the futures market has shown a downward - biased shock trend recently [24]