豆粕反弹、油脂震荡 一、农产品板块综述 豆粕低位反弹,市场在美国农业部6月末即将公布美豆播种面积 和季度库存报告前调整持仓,空头回补提振期价反弹,但空间有限, 关注 USDA 重磅报告出炉对豆类市场的影响。油脂震荡,马棕油受到 产量增长及出口放缓的压力,国内棕榈油进口成本下降,库存累积, 后市棕油期价仍将承压。生猪下挫,需求掣肘压力仍然明显,高温季 节及学校暑假等令生猪消费下降,替代品消费增多,生猪承压回落。 白糖延续上行趋势,受到外盘反弹以及国内消费旺季提振。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一)豆粕:低位反弹 焦点关注:豆粕2509 合约低位反弹,在美国农业部即将公布美 豆播种面积和季度库存报告前空头进行回补,以规避不确定风险: 1. 美国农业部即将在6月末公布美国大豆播种面积、季度库存 等重磅数据,多空双方在报告公布前调整持仓,空头积极回补推动期 价反弹。市场关注美国大豆播种面积的调整是否会超出市场预期。目 前国内进口大豆充沛,油厂大豆开机率保持在历史高位附近,豆粕供 应持续增加,豆粕库存加速累积,现货基差疲软,豆粕期价仍承压。 2、豆粕主力 2509 合约大跌后小幅反弹,技术修正,但期价仍 在均线系统之下运行,M ...

Core Insights - The futures market for live pigs shows a closing price of 13,790 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, reflecting an increase of 110 yuan/ton from the previous week [1] - The current prices for live pigs in various regions have increased, with Henan at 14.86 yuan/kg (+0.53 yuan), Jiangsu at 15.24 yuan/kg (+0.58 yuan), and Sichuan at 13.86 yuan/kg (+0.21 yuan) [1] - The supply side indicates a slight increase in the number of breeding sows and a decrease in the number of sows being eliminated, while the total stock of market pigs has increased by 0.45% [1] Supply Analysis - As of May, the number of breeding sows stands at 5.0834 million, up 0.33% month-on-month [1] - The number of eliminated sows is 96,829, down 0.91% from the previous month [1] - The total stock of market pigs is 35.6403 million, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.45% [1] Demand Analysis - The slaughtering rate of enterprises is at 27.74%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The inventory rate of frozen products in key domestic slaughtering enterprises is 17.41%, an increase of 0.06% [1] - Consumer demand appears to be recovering, with an increase in slaughter volume and frozen inventory, although overall consumption remains weak [1] Market Outlook - The analysis suggests that if the breeding sector reduces the number of pigs being sold in July, live pig prices may rise [1] - The September futures contract is showing strong performance, indicating market confidence [1] - In the medium to long term, the production capacity and profitability of pig farming remain favorable, with a trend of increasing breeding sows expected to continue [1]

【17日生猪期货主力合约收阳，收储政策短期提振猪价】17日，生猪主力2509合约平开后震荡小涨，尾 盘收阳。最高13855元/吨，最低13755元/吨，收盘报13815元/吨，较昨日涨0.11%，指数总持仓增1732手 至163288手。当日，全国外三元均价14.23元/公斤，较昨日涨0.02元/公斤。 需求端，肥标价差低、栏舍 利用率小升，二次育肥补栏积极性弱，多观望，对价格支撑减弱。气温上升，终端需求转弱，屠宰企业 订单一般，开工率和屠宰量维持低位。6月17日样本屠宰企业屠宰量14.6万头，较昨日增0.05万头，较一 周前增0.46万头。 供应端，6月计划出栏量2362.9万头，较5月实际出栏增1.02%，出栏环比继续增长。 养殖端正常出栏，大猪出栏量下滑，出栏体重小降。 政策端，6月11日中央储备冻猪肉收储挂牌竞价交 易1万吨，成交价格2 - 4号肉20.3 - 20.8元/公斤。收储政策稳定猪价、提振信心，短期带动期现货价格反 弹，但中长期供需宽松形势未改。 期货方面，目前期货合约均贴水现货，收储带来短期反弹，中长期 仍受需求淡季、供需偏宽松影响，需关注收储政策持续性。 行业要闻显示，截至5月，样本养 ...

国 元 点 睛 2025.06.10 国元期货研究咨询部 国内主要期货品种日度涨跌幅 国内主要期货品种日度涨跌幅 | 国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。铝合金涨超4%，苯乙烯（EB）涨超2%。跌幅方面，不锈钢（SS）、沪锌、 | 5.00% | 尿素、沪镍跌超1%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...