2026年01月11日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：关注MPOB报告利空落地情况 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆动能有限，关注国内现货发酵 | 2 | | 豆粕：等待USDA报告指引 | 8 | | 豆一：关注USDA报告、抛储 | 8 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 14 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 20 | | 棉花：暂无新驱动，期价回调20260111 | 27 | | 生猪：累库确认，短期仍未见释放驱动 | 34 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 40 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 豆油：美豆动能有限，关注国内现货发酵 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 01 月 11 日 棕榈油：关注 MPOB 报告利空落地情况 棕榈油：随着马来逐步兑现减产预期，高频出口数据良好，12 月大概率创下库存高点，对棕榈油形成 短期支撑，同时商品走势偏强，05 合约周涨 0.81%，但打到区间上沿后 ...

农产品早报 2026-01-08 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周三郑州白糖期货价格偏强震荡，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5281 元/吨，较前一交易日上涨 22 元/吨，或 0.42%。现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5320-5380 元/吨，报价较上个交易日上涨 10-20 元/吨；云南 制糖集团新糖报价 5180-5230 元/吨，报价较上个交易日上涨 10 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5800 元/ 吨，报价较上个交易日上涨 10 元/吨。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 39 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据糖业协会数据显示，截至 1 月广西累计产糖 194 万吨，同比减少 81 万吨；产糖率 11.96%，同比减少 0.85 个百分点；累计销糖 88 万吨，同比减少 74 万吨；产销率 45.56%，同比下降 13.76 个百分点。其中 12 月单月产糖 ...

豆粕：南美天气展望改善 短线偏弱 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2777 | 2758 | 19 | 0. 69% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3154. 57 | 3154. 29 | 0. 28 | 0. 01% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3100 | 3060 | 40 | 1. 31% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3237.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2228. 75 | 2236. 25 | -7.5 | -0. 34% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1466. 67 | ...

从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 上周五 CBOT 大豆收跌，尽管中国不断购买购买美豆，但美豆销售进度仍然偏慢，南美大豆产区也迎来 较好降雨。周末国内豆粕现货小幅回落。上周豆粕成交尚可、提货较好，消息面称通关延迟。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 204.45 万吨，上周压榨大豆 203.75 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.13 环比上 升 0.64 天。 杨泽元 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也开始增加，重点关注其 1 到 3 月天 气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预 计在南美天气没有出现显著问题背景下大豆到港成本仍然震荡为主。 农产品早报 2025-12-15 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四，玉米主力 | | 2603 合约震荡收十字星，期价在 20 日均线支撑处企稳，期价震 米价格继续下探。港口贸易商集中下调 10 元/吨，下游饲料企业目前头寸天数较 | 震荡 | | 荡收小阳线，均线系统对价格提供支撑。从月间表现看，玉米近月 | | 2601 合约持 | | | 续减仓，资金向 | | 3 月合约转移。从现货市场的表现来看，东北玉米价格略弱运行， | | | 部分地区农户售粮积极性略有提高。昨日华北地区深加工企业玉米价格稳中偏弱 | | | | | 运行，但基层价格基本维持稳定，市场供需处于动态平衡的状态。基层购销活跃 | | | | | 度依然不高，粮点收购量较前期有所好转，但依然处于较低的水平。销区市场玉 | 玉米 | | | | 高，库存充足，对下跌行情采购积极性不高，市场整体购销活跃度一般。技术上， | | | | | 玉米 | | 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，日线有支撑，周线期价上行遇 | | | 阻，动力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed trend, with hog prices rising sharply and soybean meal prices falling significantly. The hog market is in a situation of strong supply and demand, and the soybean meal market is under pressure from abundant imports and high inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Hog prices have risen sharply as the year - end approaches, with the hog market entering a period of strong supply and demand. The demand for sausage - making in the north and bacon - curing in the south is increasing, and hog futures prices have rebounded strongly from low levels and may continue to strengthen. Soybean meal prices have fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and a rebound in soybean meal inventory to over one million tons, and its futures prices have entered a downward trend [1]. 3.2. Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1. Hogs - Focus: The main contract 2603 of hogs has risen sharply, boosted by improved demand. Supply is abundant in December as large - scale pig enterprises increase their出栏. Demand has increased with the arrival of winter, and the开工 rate of slaughtering enterprises has rebounded. The futures price has broken through the 20 - day moving average and entered an upward trend. The strategy is to close short positions and hold light long positions [2]. 3.2.2. Soybean Meal - Focus: The main contract 2605 of soybean meal has fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans and high inventory pressure. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a 13.4% year - on - year increase. The total soybean imports in the first 11 months reached 103.79 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. The inventory has rebounded to about 1.2 million tons. The futures price has broken through the moving average system and entered a downward trend. The strategy is to continue to look for resistance levels to short lightly [3]. 3.2.3. Palm Oil - Focus: The main contract 2605 of Dalian palm oil has oscillated and declined. The market is cautious before the release of the MPOB report, and some long positions have been liquidated. The futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions, conduct short - term trading, and wait for important data to enter trend positions [5]. 3.2.4. Red Dates - Focus: The main contract 2605 of red dates has first risen and then declined, with limited rebound. The peak consumption season is in conflict with high supply and inventory, leading to large price fluctuations. The acquisition progress in the main production areas of Xinjiang is about 90%, and the price of new dates has stabilized. However, the concentrated listing of new dates and high inventory of old dates limit the rebound space. The strategy is short - term trading [8]. 3.2.5. Apples - Focus: The main contract 2605 of apples has oscillated and declined from a high position. The inventory in production areas is relatively low, but the market trading speed is slow, and the sales volume is average. Citrus competing fruits also impact apple consumption. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [9][11]. 3.2.6. Eggs - Focus: The main contract 2601 of eggs has rebounded from a low position as the market anticipates improved demand at the end of the year. The egg - laying hen inventory is still high, but the market expects better demand. The latest data shows a decline in the number of old hens sold. The futures price has rebounded and oscillated, standing above the 5 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [12]. 3.2.7. Sugar - Focus: The main contract 2601 of Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded from a low position due to technical correction and short - covering. However, the supply pressure of new sugar is still large as the sugar - cane crushing progress in Guangxi and Yunnan continues, with 50 sugar mills in operation. The futures price is still below the moving averages, and the downward trend has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions [14]. 3.2.8. Cotton - Focus: The main contract 2601 of cotton has oscillated and closed up, with high - level operation. The sales rate of Xinjiang cotton is high, and the demand has significantly increased. The textile enterprises in Xinjiang have a high operating rate, and the orders are sufficient. The transportation cost of cotton has increased. The market confidence of the textile industry has been boosted. The futures price has recovered the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to hold long positions [17]. 3.2.9. Peanuts - Focus: The main contract 2603 of peanuts has fallen significantly, with a weakening trend. The supply in various production areas is limited, and the demand is also weak. Food factories have only rigid demand, and the trading activity in the domestic market is low. Oil mills have a low operating rate, strictly control quality, and continue to lower purchase prices. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to short lightly [18][20].

2025年12月07日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：若无意外利多，盘面偏弱 | 8 | | 豆一：现货偏强，盘面偏弱 | 8 | | 玉米：或有回调 | 13 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 棉花：涨势放缓 | 26 | | 生猪：弱势难改，基差逻辑回归 | 33 | | 花生：关注现货 | 39 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 07 日 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：维持震荡运行，高产边际交易暂时充分，短期超跌后技术反弹支撑，棕榈油 01 合约周涨 1.67%，是否拐点出现仍需确认，抄底不宜过分乐观，建议轻仓操作。 豆油：美豆销售进度偏慢，如果缺乏南美天气炒作则上方驱动有限，暂跟随油脂板块区间震荡为主， 等待升水故事，豆油 01 合约周涨 0. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range due to cost support and pressured crushing margins [5]. - Palm oil is expected to trade in a range, with a shift to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [5][9]. - Sugar prices are expected to decline after a rebound, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term [16]. - Egg prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [20]. - Hog prices are expected to have a bearish outlook before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to use reverse spreads first and then wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. The USDA monthly report lowered the new - crop soybean production in the US and globally. US soybean exports were also lowered. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable last week, and the cost of imported soybeans rose. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped slightly over the weekend. MYSTEEL statistics showed average domestic soybean meal sales last week, good pick - up, and a slight decrease in feed enterprise inventory days. MYSTEEL expects the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills to increase this week [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the next two weeks, rainfall in Brazilian soybean - growing areas is expected to be normal, and sowing is expected to proceed normally. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons. US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory [3]. - **Strategy**: Import costs may have found a bottom, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but the de - stocking season is approaching, providing some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5]. Vegetable Oils - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed a 9.5% - 12.28% decrease in Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed a 6.8% increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 5 days of November and a 2.16% decrease from November 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month. A consultant expects Malaysian palm oil futures prices to rebound to 4,300 - 4,400 ringgit per metric ton in Q1 next year. Domestic vegetable oils traded in a range last Friday, supported by the rebound in crude oil and the expected seasonal de - stocking [7]. - **Strategy**: High production in Malaysia and Indonesia has pressured palm oil prices, but improving exports provide some support. Palm oil is expected to trade in a range, with a shift to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell on Friday. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of October increased by 16.4% year - on - year. India has allowed 1.5 million tons of sugar exports in the new season. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased [11]. - **Strategy**: Stricter controls on syrup and premix imports have boosted Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is weak. It is recommended to wait for the rebound to fade and then look for short - selling opportunities [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to trade in a range on Friday. Domestic cotton production is expected to be high this year, and downstream demand is weak. Spinning mill operating rates are lower than in previous years, and commercial inventories are higher [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term due to weak downstream demand and high domestic production [16]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Domestic egg prices were stable over the weekend. The laying hen inventory is high, but there is no pressure to sell eggs after the temperature drop, and downstream demand is gradually recovering [18]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [20]. Hogs - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices mostly fell over the weekend, with some areas stable. Supply in the northern market increased, and downstream demand was limited. Southern leading enterprises tried to support prices, and the market was in a stalemate [22]. - **Strategy**: Hog prices are expected to have a bearish outlook before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to use reverse spreads first and then wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [23]. 4. Key Charts - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Charts include major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, port soybean inventory, feed enterprise inventory days, etc. [25][32] - **Vegetable Oils**: Charts include domestic three - major vegetable oil inventories, Malaysian palm oil inventory, etc. [47] - **Sugar**: Charts include national monthly sugar sales volume, cumulative sugar production, etc. [51] - **Cotton**: Charts include global and US cotton production and inventory - to - consumption ratio, Chinese cotton production, etc. [62][63] - **Eggs**: Charts include laying hen inventory, egg chick replenishment volume, etc. [73] - **Hogs**: Charts include hog slaughter weight, daily slaughter volume, etc. [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Soybean, Meal, and Related Products - Argentina restarted export taxes, but China has purchased multiple shipments of Argentine soybeans. US soybeans lack substantial positive factors, with high yields and limited Chinese demand, expected to fluctuate in a low - range. Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, with high soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories. The basis is difficult to improve under supply pressure. The increase in Argentine soybean purchases eases the year - end and Q1 2026 gap, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken [2]. Pork - The market supply rhythm is continuously recovering. Near the Double Festival, the demand for large - weight pig slaughter has increased, resulting in both supply and demand growth. Spot quotes are chaotic, and price drops have widened in some areas. In the medium term, demand is slowly recovering, but supply has clearly recovered, and demand is weak. Pay attention to the adjustment of retail farmers' pig weights after the National Day. The futures market is cautious about speculating on expectations, market confidence is weak, and long - term bullish funds have withdrawn. The market is expected to fluctuate sideways and follow the spot market with small fluctuations [4]. Edible Oils - For palm oil, due to the release of end - of - month fundamental data and concerns about year - end inventory growth, crude palm oil futures may fall below 4400 ringgit and continue to decline. There is a possibility of seeking support at 4200 ringgit after breaking through the annual support at 4350 ringgit. In the domestic market, there is a risk of domestic palm oil futures following the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil, especially a potential catch - up decline after the National Day holiday. For soybean oil, the concentrated harvest of US soybeans and weak exports may lead to a decline in CBOT soybeans, which will drag down CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the market is quiet. Factory soybean oil production may accumulate during the holiday, and although downstream replenishment after the holiday may ease inventory pressure, soybean oil inventory remains high, which may drag down the spot basis [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the Northeast, the supply of new - season corn is increasing, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year, with farmers being more willing to sell. Prices may rebound slightly in the short term but are expected to decline as the harvest progresses. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly meet their rigid needs and have seasonal replenishment needs. In the short term, the market supply is increasing, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level. Pay attention to the new - grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling attitudes [7]. Sugar - In the short term, raw sugar prices are dragged down by rapid Brazilian production and demand before the October contract expiration. There is an oversupply in the trade flow due to high sugar production and inventory during the Brazilian crushing peak. Pay attention to the pressure relief after the decrease in cane crushing volume, the reduction in sugar - making ratio, and the gradual end of the crushing season from September to October. Overall, there are limited positive factors for raw sugar, and it is expected to remain in a weak bottom - sideways pattern, with a reference range of 15 - 17 cents per pound. The new sugar - making season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and new sugar is expected to be on the market this week, putting pressure on the spot market. Domestic market trading sentiment is cautious, and after the Double Festival stocking, the overall trading atmosphere is light. The market is expected to remain weak [11]. Cotton - On the supply side, the willingness to scramble for seed cotton is weak, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price, so there is significant hedging pressure on cotton prices in the medium term. On the demand side, the downstream textile industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than the same period in previous years, providing limited support. Overall, domestic cotton prices may face pressure in the medium term [12]. Eggs - In recent days, traders' risk - aversion has increased, and their purchases in the origin have decreased. Weakening demand may drag down egg prices. Abundant egg supply will also have a negative impact on the egg market. After a slight decline in egg prices, traders may make small - batch replenishments, which may support egg prices. Egg prices are expected to remain sideways at the bottom in the short term but face pressure in the medium term [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean, Meal, and Related Products - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; M2601 futures price is 2933 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.14%. Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.40%; RM2601 futures price is 2416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.46%. Harbin soybean spot price is 3880 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean No. 1 main - contract futures price is 3938 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.08% [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of M2601 is 7 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 133.33%. The basis of RM2601 is 84 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 20%. The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 190 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 2.15%. The 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 19.23% [2]. Pork - **Futures Indicators**: The main - contract basis is 255, up 280 or 1120%. The price of Live Hogs 2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan or 2.23%. The price of Live Hogs 2601 is 12785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan or 2.40% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 12550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong is 12850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Sichuan is 12050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [4]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 169930, up 4751 or 2.88%. The weekly white - strip price is 0, down 19.8 or 100%. The weekly self - breeding profit is - 74 yuan/head, down 49.7 or 203.23% [4]. Edible Oils - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8400 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.83%; Y2601 futures price is 8150 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.15%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 9110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 1.30%; P2601 futures price is 9234 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.02% [6]. - **Spreads**: The basis of Y2601 is 250 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 18.83%. The basis of P2601 is - 124 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan or 1966.67%. The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil is 238 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.85% [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 is 2159 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.87%. The basis is 121 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 18.63%. The 11 - 3 spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 62.96% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 is 2483 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.12%. The basis is 17 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 3.75%. The 11 - 3 spread is 21 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 31.25% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of Sugar 2601 is 5479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%. The price of Sugar 2605 is 5437 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.09%. The 1 - 5 spread is 42 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 16.67% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price is 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) and Nanning sugar is - 1326 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 2.14% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales are 1000 million tons, up 114 million tons or 12.87% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of Cotton 2605 is 13540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.15%. The price of Cotton 2601 is 13555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.11%. The 5 - 1 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 175% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15024 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan or 0.31%. The difference between CC Index: 3128B and FC Index: M: 1% is 1726 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 7.5% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory is 117.59 million tons, down 30.58 million tons or 20.6%. Industrial inventory is 86.21 million tons, down 3.02 million tons or 3.4% [12]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of Egg 11 contract is 3016 yuan/500KG, down 20 yuan or 0.66%. The price of Egg 10 contract is 2918 yuan/500KG, down 22 yuan or 0.75%. The egg - producing area price is 3.44 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan or 2.76% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - to - feed ratio is 2.85, up 0.21 or 7.95%. The breeding profit is 3.20 yuan/feather, up 12.31 yuan or 135.13% [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, due to high domestic supply pressure, sufficient soybean purchases until December, and the current cancellation of export tax in Argentina, there may be a short - term decline. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. However, considering the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the market will likely fluctuate within a range [2][4]. - **Oils**: Currently, the supply and demand of oils are balanced or slightly loose, but there is an expectation of tight supply in the future. Supported by factors such as low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, the US biodiesel policy, and reduced export volume expectations in Indonesia, the market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after stabilization [6][9]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as high sugar imports in August and a significant increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. Technically, short - term indicators suggest a wait - and - see approach before the National Day holiday [11][12]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the downstream industry's operating rate is growing weakly, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - term. However, due to low domestic cotton inventory and relatively low prices, there may be support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [14][15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline, with the near - term futures showing weakness and the far - term futures strengthening relatively due to expectations of improved supply - demand and capital games. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - term futures after a decline [17][18]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price is accelerating its decline due to factors such as increased supply from group farms and panic selling by individual farmers. The futures price is also under pressure due to high premiums attracting short - selling. It is recommended to short the near - term futures and use option selling to manage volatility risks [20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: US soybeans rose slightly on Thursday. Argentina has raised $7 billion and restored export tax. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose slightly on Wednesday, with a decrease in trading volume and提货 volume. Last week, domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there may be a decline; medium - term, the market will fluctuate within a range, with a strategy of selling on rebounds [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production showed different trends. Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased in July, while production and inventory increased. India bought a record 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina [6]. - **Strategy**: Medium - term, the market is expected to be moderately strong. Buy on dips after stabilization [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated. StoneX predicted an increase in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season. Thailand and India are also expected to increase sugar production. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased [11]. - **Strategy**: Overall bearish, wait - and - see before the National Day holiday [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were weak. The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories were lower than the same period last year. US cotton's good - quality rate decreased slightly but was still high [14]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, wait and see due to conflicting factors of weak downstream demand and low inventory [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable with a few declines on the previous day. Supply was stable, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak [17]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term, focus on buying far - term futures after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined on the previous day. Before the festival, demand was weak, and the number of pigs for sale was large [20]. - **Strategy**: Short the near - term futures and use option selling to manage risks [21].