| 期货价格(主力日收盘 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2826 | 2833 | -7 | -0. 25% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3162. 29 | 3163. 14 | -0. 85 | -0. 03% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3080 | 3100 | -20 | -0. 65% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3237.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2281. 25 | 2287.5 | -6. 25 | -0. 27% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1433. 33 | 1433. 33 | 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to end the sugar - cane crushing season in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and as sugar prices fall to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium to long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive future macro - economic outlook, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] - For protein meal, affected by sudden news from Canada, rapeseed meal prices rebounded. The January USDA report data was slightly negative, but the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/2025 season. From the weekly sample data, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. In the short term, the fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12] - For oils, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, oil prices rose significantly yesterday. Recently, the inventories of the three major domestic oils have continued to decline month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback before trying to go long [17] - For eggs, the pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations, and the near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand - side expectations are about to be realized. The near - contracts have post - festival attributes and may mainly fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end is affected by the peak of production capacity and has a long - term positive outlook, but after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [20] - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference support the short - term limited decline in the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large overall supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be opportunities to sell short after the rebound. Due to limited capacity reduction, the improvement space for the long - term fundamentals has been revised down. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [23] 3. Summary by Category Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5,187 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.37% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,250 - 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of currently operating sugar mills increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3] Strategy - Wait and see for now [4] Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded sharply. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,940 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton or 2.57% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5] - As of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's opening rate was 64.6%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast for US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast, with the export forecast remaining unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; the production forecast for China was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 166,000 tons year - on - year; among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons year - on - year [6][7] Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,782 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 1.14% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,490 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after US President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. From January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons; among them, the US exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China in that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 9.42 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. The January 2025/26 global soybean production forecast was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly reduced by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [11] Strategy - Protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12] Oils Market Information - On Wednesday, the oils futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,326 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,270 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,330 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,850 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9,270 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] - Malaysian Prime Minister Carney said that after US President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. From January 1 to 20 in Malaysia, the crude palm oil production decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January US soybean oil consumption forecast was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [14][15] Strategy - Wait for a pullback before trying to go long [17] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.04 yuan to 3.96 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 3.62 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion slowed down, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable in the short term, with a small number of regions having narrow - range adjustments [19] Strategy - Near - month contracts may mainly fluctuate, and pay attention to the pressure after the rebound. For the far - end, pay attention to the selling pressure after over - valuation [20] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally continued to decline. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.24 yuan to 12.94 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.2 yuan to 12.47 yuan/kg. In the northern regions, there was rain and snow, and with the weekend approaching, the demand increased. The farmers reduced the slaughter at low prices, and the pig price may stabilize, with a slight increase in some areas. In the southern regions, the supply may increase due to accelerated slaughter, the demand is average, supply exceeds demand, and the pig price may continue to decline [22] Strategy - There may still be opportunities to sell short after the rebound. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and as the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive future macro - economic expectations, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the excessive short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose the opportunity to go long [10]. - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the rapeseed meal price rebounded. The January USDA report data was slightly bearish as the production forecasts of the US and Brazil increased slightly month - on - month, and the US export volume decreased slightly. But the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/2025 season. From the weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [14]. - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in the palm oil production in Malaysia in January, the oil and fat prices rose significantly yesterday. On the other hand, the inventories of the three major domestic oils and fats have been decreasing month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then try to go long [19]. - For eggs, the pre - holiday stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand - side expectations are about to be realized. The near - month contracts have post - holiday characteristics and may fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end contracts are affected by the peak of production capacity and have long - term positive expectations, but after giving profits too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [21]. - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctant - to - sell sentiment caused by the high fat - to - standard pig price difference support the limited short - term decline of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - holiday supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals has been revised down. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the long - term decline [24]. Summary by Category Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,250 - 5,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - According to UNICA data, in the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder. In 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.1888 million tons. According to the data released by the Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), as of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,953 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - According to the data released by the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab), as of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in the 2025/2026 season in Brazil was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, as of the week of January 23, the operating rate of spinning mills was 64.6%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/2026 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast, the export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; the production forecast for China was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. According to USDA data, from January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 166,000 tons year - on - year; among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons year - on - year [7][9]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,271 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [12]. - According to foreign media reports, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. According to USDA export sales data, from January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons; among them, the US exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China in that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 9.42 million tons. According to MYSTEEL data, from January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/2026 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Brazilian production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Argentine production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume decreased slightly by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [13]. Oils and Fats Market Information - On Tuesday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,258 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,238 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16]. - According to foreign media reports, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia from January 1 to 20 decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. According to MYSTEEL data, from January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. The deputy minister of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. According to USDA data, the January forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. According to the data of the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [16][18]. Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and rose in others. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.08 yuan to 3.92 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.6 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao increased by 0.11 yuan to 3.62 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui increased by 0.07 yuan to 3.96 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion was okay, and most industry players purchased and sold according to the market trend. Most industry players still had a bullish sentiment, and it is expected that the national egg price may rise in most areas and remain stable in a few areas in the short term [21][25]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.06 yuan to 13.18 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 12.67 yuan/kg. The slaughtering enthusiasm of the northern breeding side was okay, but there was a certain reluctance to sell in the low - price areas, and the decline of the pig price may narrow. The southern breeding side was active in slaughtering, the market demand was average, and under the influence of oversupply, the pig price may continue to decline [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific ratings for each variety: short - term decline for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, short - term rebound for palm oil, short - term weakness for soybean oil, short - term oscillation for rapeseed oil, oscillation adjustment for cotton, short - term rebound for red dates, and caution for callback for live pigs [1]. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: After multiple rounds of negative factors are realized, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. Although the domestic spot price is resistant to decline, recent domestic reserves release and the successful China - Canada meeting led to a new low in soybean meal prices, and short - selling after continuous decline should be cautious [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The improvement of China - Canada trade relations may lead to a long - term increase in imports. Currently, the supply is tight, but the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see with a bullish view [1][4][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of January increased month - on - month, and the production decreased month - on - month, which supports the market. Although Indonesia's decision not to implement the B50 policy in 2026 dampens the bullish sentiment, there are still opportunities to go long at low prices, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][7][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the pre - holiday stocking makes the domestic spot trading good. If the palm oil data continues to improve, there may be short - term long opportunities [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The easing of China - Canada trade relations may relieve the long - term supply pressure. Considering the current high basis, the decline space is limited, and it may oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Cotton**: The 1 - month USDA data is positive for the ICE market, and the short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong. The domestic market is facing a slowdown in sales, increased raw material inventory pressure, and weakening demand in the off - season. The short - term is expected to adjust weakly, and the medium - to - long - term may recover after the release of negative factors [1][11][13]. - **Red Dates**: With the arrival of the peak season of new product listing and consumption, the futures price fluctuation increases. The accelerated inventory reduction may drive a short - term rebound, but the overall situation is still under pressure in the context of loose supply and demand [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: As it approaches the end of January, the pressure of increased slaughter before the Spring Festival is increasing, and the market sentiment may change. The near - month contract may face increasing pressure, and the far - month contract is also under pressure due to the slow reduction of breeding sows [1][16][17]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 772100 tons, a decrease of 30700 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 687330 tons, a decrease of 25790 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.62%, and an increase of 165860 tons from last year, an increase of 31.81%; the soybean meal inventory was 94720 tons, a decrease of 9680 tons from last week, a decrease of 9.27%, and an increase of 39050 tons from last year, an increase of 70.15% [3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3195.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.03% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 60000 tons, unchanged from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, unchanged from last week [6]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2221 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 1.51%; the national average spot price was 2388.95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.79 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 3.07% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 746100 tons, an increase of 10100 tons from last week, an increase of 1.37%, and an increase of 264300 tons from last year, an increase of 54.86% [9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.30%; the national average price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.03% [7]. Cotton - **Inventory Data**: As of the relevant period, the national cotton commercial inventory was 5686300 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from the previous value; the Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory was 4706300 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous value [10]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 was 14545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.31%; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.32% [10]. Red Dates - **Inventory Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 14415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from the previous week, and 3737 tons higher than the same period [15]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 was 8815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.68%; the price of Aksu general - grade dates was 5.15 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Sales Data**: As of the relevant period, the national sample - enterprise pig inventory was 3847750, a decrease of 8570 from the previous month, a decrease of 0.22%; the pig slaughter volume was 12330900, an increase of 450900 from the previous month, an increase of 3.80%; the breeding sow inventory was 3990000, a decrease of 45000 from the previous month, a decrease of 1.12% [16]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract LH2603 was 11705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.30%; the national average slaughter price was 13300 yuan/ton, an increase of 530 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 4.15% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Palm Oil - Palm oil is currently in the upper range of the bottom - side oscillation. After the MPOB report next week, there may be a short - term reaction of negative news being digested, but it lacks upward driving force. Long - term direction is unclear, and short - term operations are recommended. Potential driving forces are expected in February - March and April - May [5][8]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - The outlook for South American soybeans is positive, and the US soybeans are expected to stabilize in an oscillatory manner in January. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the domestic spot market's driving force for the domestic soybean product spread. Soybean oil is currently in a range - bound operation [7][8]. 2.3 Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - For soybean meal and soybean No.1, price fluctuations next week are mainly determined by the USDA report. If the report is positive, soybean meal prices are expected to rise; if neutral, it will continue to oscillate at a low level. For soybean No.1, in addition to the USDA report, domestic reserve sales should also be monitored [25]. 2.4 Corn - The corn market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Although there is some selling pressure from farmers before the Spring Festival, the price correction range is limited [38][43]. 2.5 Sugar - Internationally, the sugar market is in a weak - expectation pattern, and New York raw sugar is in a low - level range - bound operation. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a weak basis, and attention should be paid to import policy changes [64][89]. 2.6 Cotton - ICE cotton followed the Chinese cotton price and then declined. The domestic cotton market lacks new driving forces, and it is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to consider trading based on demand and new - year production. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillatory and bullish [90][91][106]. 2.7 Live Pigs - Spot prices of live pigs are expected to be weakly oscillatory, and the LH2603 futures contract is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The support level is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 12,000 yuan/ton [110][111]. 2.8 Peanuts - The peanut market is in an oscillatory operation. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling by oil mills, and after the festival, there may be selling pressure [126][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: Palm oil's 05 contract rose 0.81% last week, and soybean oil's 05 contract rose 1.63%. Palm oil was supported by production cuts and good export data, while soybean oil had limited upward drive due to lack of South American weather speculation [4]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Malaysia's December palm oil inventory may exceed 3 million tons, suppressing the rebound of the oil sector. After the MPOB report, there may be a short - term reaction of negative news being digested. For soybean oil, the good prospects of South American soybeans put pressure on US soybeans, and the domestic market is affected by factors such as low purchases in the first quarter and state - reserve auctions [5][7]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: The US soybean prices fluctuated with a slight upward shift. Domestic soybean meal prices were strongly oscillatory, and soybean No.1 prices rose. Factors such as Chinese purchases of US soybeans, import soybean auctions, and market sentiment affected the prices [19][20]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are mainly affected by the USDA report. For soybean No.1, domestic reserve sales also need attention [25]. 3.3 Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, the national average corn price rose slightly last week. In the futures market, the price also increased, and the basis weakened [38][39]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices rose. Wheat prices fell, and import corn auctions restarted. Corn starch inventory increased, and the corn market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish before the Spring Festival [40][43]. 3.4 Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the US dollar index rose, and New York raw sugar prices increased. Domestically, the spot price of sugar in Guangxi rose, and Zhengzhou sugar prices also increased. The net long position of funds decreased [62][63]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Internationally, the sugar market is in a weak - expectation pattern, and New York raw sugar is in a low - level range - bound operation. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a weak basis, and attention should be paid to import policy changes [64][89]. 3.5 Cotton - **Market Data**: ICE cotton and domestic cotton futures and spot prices first rose and then fell. ICE cotton was affected by Chinese cotton prices and other factors, and domestic cotton was affected by market sentiment and fundamentals [90][91][94]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the US cotton export data was mixed, and the situations in other cotton - producing and consuming countries varied. Domestically, cotton prices fluctuated, and the trading volume improved slightly. The yarn and fabric markets had price increases but limited transactions [95][100][101]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices of live pigs were strongly oscillatory, and futures prices were oscillatory. Supply was tight due to slow group - farm sales and strong reluctance to sell by individual farmers. Demand entered a loss - making phase after New Year's Day [108][109]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices of live pigs are expected to be weakly oscillatory. The supply is expected to increase continuously until March 2026, and the demand is in a vacuum period in the middle of January. The LH2603 futures contract is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [110][111]. 3.7 Peanuts - **Market Review**: In the spot market, peanut prices were stable with a slight decline. In the futures market, prices fell last week. The supply was sufficient, and the demand from food enterprises and oil mills was limited [126]. - **Market Outlook**: The peanut market is in an oscillatory operation. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling by oil mills, and after the festival, there may be selling pressure [127].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere finishes harvesting in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized. The downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited in the short - term due to reduced imported sugar supply and low prices [4] - For cotton, although the market has long expected a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, the price volatility may increase. The supply - demand relationship is balanced, and it is advisable to buy on dips [8] - For protein meal, the bottom of import costs may have been reached, and the current large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are supported by negative crushing margins. Protein meal prices follow the general upward trend of commodities [12] - For oils, the current fundamental situation is weak, but the negative soybean crushing margins provide some support. The consumption of total oils in US biodiesel may increase significantly in 2026, and oil prices may be close to the bottom [16][17] - For eggs, the short - term downside of spot prices is limited, but the upside is also restricted. It is advisable to focus on shorting after rebounds from the valuation perspective [19] - For pigs, the short - term upward logic of pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is advisable to short on rebounds in near - term off - season contracts and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts in the long - term [22] 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The closing price of the May contract was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day. Spot prices of sugar from different regions also increased [2] - **Production and Sales Data**: As of January, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production was 1.94 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 810,000 tons; the sugar production rate was 11.96%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.85 percentage points. Yunnan's cumulative sugar production was 390,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 tons [3] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to rise. The closing price of the May contract was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous trading day. The spot price index also increased [6] - **Export and Inventory Data**: As of December 25, the US current - year cotton export sales were 31,100 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.5193 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 232,700 tons. As of January 2, the national cotton commercial inventory was 5.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [6] Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, protein meal futures prices continued to rise. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 1.26% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous trading day [10] - **Export and Inventory Data**: As of December 25, the US exported 1.18 million tons of soybeans in the week, with a cumulative current - year export of 27.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.85 million tons. As of January 2, the domestic sample soybean port inventory was 8.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons [11] Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, oil futures prices rebounded, except for rapeseed oil. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day [14] - **Production and Inventory Data**: From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month. As of January 2, the domestic three - major oils inventory was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons [15] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Most egg prices in the country rose yesterday. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.08 yuan to 3.21 yuan/jin. It is expected that today's egg prices will mostly remain stable with a few increasing [18] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The capacity reduction is slow, and the overall supply is large. However, the late Spring Festival leads to continued stocking sentiment [19] Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price continued to rise yesterday, but the increase narrowed. It is expected that today's pig price will be stable in some areas and slightly decline in others [21] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Low prices stimulate consumption, the late Spring Festival leads to postponed demand, and the structural shortage of large pigs has contributed to the unexpected rebound of pig prices [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings and Core Views - The investment ratings for various futures varieties are as follows: soybean meal - short - term consolidation; rapeseed meal - short - term rebound; palm oil - short - term consolidation; soybean oil - short - term oscillation; rapeseed oil - range oscillation; cotton - oscillation with an upward bias; red dates - weak operation; live pigs - rebound and short - sell [1] - The core view for soybean meal is that although the Sino - US soybean purchase has started, the poor US soybean export data is bearish for the US market sentiment. The improved rainfall in South America means there is a lack of bullish drivers. The domestic soybean meal inventory has improved on a week - on - week basis but is still high year - on - year. Supply in December is expected to be sufficient, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating market [1][4] - For rapeseed meal, the coastal oil mills have zero inventory and zero crushing of rapeseed, and low imports. However, the port inventory is still high year - on - year, and the spot is reducing inventory by lowering prices. There is no significant change in fundamentals expected. It follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1][7] - Regarding palm oil, Malaysia's palm oil export data in the first 15 days of this month decreased month - on - month. The government's expectation of inventory accumulation in December is bearish for market sentiment. Due to the expected entry into the production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, short - selling operations should be treated with caution. Attention should be paid to short - long opportunities after the adjustment stabilizes, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating in December [1][9] - For soybean oil, the domestic soybean oil inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month but is still higher than the five - year average. The improved South American weather and the lack of positive data from the palm oil side lead to a bearish adjustment. Attention should be paid to the previous low - level technical support, as well as the South American weather and the progress of the US biodiesel policy [1] - In the case of rapeseed oil, the current zero - start of coastal oil mills, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November, along with the continuous decline in port inventory. However, the diversification of imports such as Australian and Russian rapeseed, as well as the global and Canadian rapeseed harvests, may limit the upside space of prices. It is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1] - For cotton, the US cotton harvest is nearing the end, and Brazil has started the new - season planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to oscillate at the bottom. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, but the sales progress has significantly slowed down. There is a need to be vigilant against short - term callback risks. In operation, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to short - long opportunities after the callback and the long - term moderate recovery opportunities under the supply narrative [1][13] - Regarding red dates, at the end of the acquisition, the spot price increase has slowed down the downward trend. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the market volatility increases. The high inventory still exerts significant pressure on the price rebound. In a situation of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. On the disk, most of the premium caused by speculation of a large - scale reduction in new - season red dates since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The short - selling trend on the disk has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. In a cooling market, attention should be paid to short - term rebound opportunities at the bottom [1][17] - For live pigs, as the Winter Solstice approaches, the concentrated release of live pig slaughter is expected. Although the demand indicators such as fresh sales and slaughter have improved, the increase in supply is likely to exceed the increase in demand, so the short - term upward driving force of pig prices is limited. With the late Spring Festival this year and the increase in the second - fattening of pigs, even if the Winter Solstice expectations are disappointed, the inventory in December is difficult to clear effectively, and the price will still be under pressure in January. For contracts, the 01 contract is only 12 trading days away from the delivery month, and it is likely to oscillate weakly under the delivery logic. For the 03 contract, in the absence of an unexpected spread of diseases, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For the 0911 contracts, due to the divergence between the reduction expectation and capacity reduction, short - long positions can be taken at low prices for now [1][20] Group 2: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - As of December 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.162 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 208,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.3615 million tons. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 239,600 tons (3.35% increase) and a year - on - year increase of 1.3807 million tons (22.96% increase). The soybean meal inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons (5.59% decrease) and a year - on - year increase of 456,700 tons (71.34% increase). The physical inventory days of soybean meal for 50 feed enterprises in the main regions of the country was 9.13 days, an increase of 0.64 days from the previous period and 1.05 days from the same period last year [3] - The current oil mill operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level of about 59%. The soybean meal inventory has increased significantly year - on - year, and the oil mills are pushing for提货. The downstream has high basis costs for purchases from December to January and is showing resistance to price drops [3] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of soybean meal is 2,777 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3,154.57 yuan/ton, a 0.01% increase from the previous day. The soybean crushing profit has a national average of - 63.4304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.38 yuan from the previous day. The basis of different contracts has also changed [2] Rapeseed Meal - As of December 12, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 0 tons, all remaining the same as the previous week [7] - The rapeseed meal market is full of a wait - and - see attitude. The market players are generally cautious in taking goods. The current market is oscillating, and the future trend is unclear. Downstream enterprises are mainly focused on risk control and replenishing inventory as needed, while the trading side is taking small quantities and turning over flexibly [7] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of rapeseed meal is 2,359 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2,497.89 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease from the previous day. The rapeseed spot crushing profit has decreased significantly [5] Palm Oil - As of December 12, 2025 (week 50), the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 652,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons (4.53% decrease) and a year - on - year increase of 113,500 tons (21.05% increase) [9] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 2.55% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in November were 632,300 tons, a 4.97% increase from October. Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 were 613,172 tons, a 15.89% decrease from the same period last month [9] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of palm oil is 8,410 yuan/ton, a 0.97% decrease from the previous day. The national average aggregated price is 8,488 yuan/ton, a 1.34% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume has changed, and the inventory has decreased [8] Cotton - Internationally, in the US, the cotton harvest is ending, and over 1.5 million tons of new cotton have been inspected. In India, the daily new cotton listing volume is between 16,000 - 20,000 tons, and nearly 42,500 tons have been purchased under the MSP, but rainfall in late November in the south and central regions was unfavorable for MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and non - main producing areas have started sowing 2026 new cotton, with the main producing areas expected to have heavy rainfall by the end of November [11] - Domestically, new cotton picking is basically completed, and the inspection volume has exceeded 5.4 million tons. The sales progress has significantly slowed down, with only a 0.2% increase to 41.6%. The national total production has been revised up by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons. The cost of new - season lint cotton is basically locked between 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. In October, the imported cotton resource volume was 223,000 tons, almost the same as the previous month and 13,500 tons higher than the same period [12] - The futures prices of different cotton contracts have changed slightly. The spot price has increased slightly. The spinning profit of textile enterprises has increased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream demand has shown some changes [10] Red Dates - In terms of supply, the acquisition in some regions has ended, and the acquisition in other regions is nearing the end. The prices in the production areas are weakening. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased to 15,790 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,880 tons and 2,848 tons higher than the same period [16] - In terms of demand, the trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly for new products, and the downstream's enthusiasm for taking goods has increased. The Ruyifang market has general demand [16] - The futures prices of different red date contracts have decreased. The spot prices of different varieties have remained basically unchanged. The basis and inventory have changed [14] Live Pigs - In the short term, in November, the breeding side actively slaughtered pigs, with fierce competition. The large - scale enterprises had high slaughter pressure, and their overall plan completion was not ideal. The planned slaughter in December has increased by 3.2%. Under pessimistic expectations, small - scale farmers, contract - farming companies, and previously second - fattened pigs are more willing to sell. The daily slaughter of large - scale enterprises has slightly decreased, but the large - scale slaughter pressure still limits the spot performance. The spread between standard and fat pigs has widened recently, and there has been some second - fattening entry behavior [19] - In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets in November decreased by 76,200 to 5.7031 million. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows in October decreased to 39.9 million, and it is initially expected that the reduction target of 39.5 million tons will be basically completed by the end of the year, corresponding to high slaughter pressure at the end of the year [19] - The demand side is gradually turning into a situation of both supply and demand booming with the increase in pickling and enema activities in the southwest and other regions. However, the supply narrative may still be the dominant factor [19] - The futures prices of different live pig contracts have changed slightly. The slaughter price, basis, and various inventory and demand indicators have also changed [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import cost may have been reached, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and under pressure on crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [2][4]. - **Oils**: Malaysian palm oil production in December showed a 6.87% month - on - month increase in the first ten days, and exports from December 1 - 10 rose by 46.98% compared to the previous month. Despite current high inventories, there is a de - stocking expectation in the medium - term. Palm oil is expected to trade with short - term fluctuations and a potential upward trend in the future [6]. - **Sugar**: Newly estimated sugar production in major producing countries is increasing, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until next year's first quarter. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term observation is recommended [10][11]. - **Cotton**: Although the previous peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad. With the commodity market's rebound, short - term capital inflows may push up cotton prices, but a unilateral trend is unlikely due to limited driving forces and hedging pressure [13][14]. - **Eggs**: With high egg production inventory and limited short - term demand growth, egg prices are expected to decline slightly this week and then stabilize. The futures market's near - month contracts may squeeze the premium, and long - term attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17][18]. - **Pigs**: With the approaching consumption peak, the spot market is warming up, and the futures market is stabilizing. However, due to high supply in the near - month, the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short after the consumption - driven rebound, and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far - month contracts [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. Although China is continuously purchasing US soybeans, the sales progress is slow, and South American soybean - growing areas have received good rainfall. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly over the weekend. MYSTEEL estimates that this week's soybean crushing volume will be 2.0445 million tons, up from 2.0375 million tons last week. The feed enterprise inventory days were 9.13 last week, up 0.64 days from the previous week [2]. - **Strategy**: Soybean import cost has a bottom support, but the upward space is limited. With high domestic inventories and under pressure on crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production in the first ten days of December increased by 6.87% month - on - month. Shipments from December 1 - 10 were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the previous month. Last Friday, domestic oil futures closed lower at night, pressured by Malaysian palm oil inventory build - up and increased production [6]. - **Strategy**: Although current palm oil inventories are high, there is a de - stocking expectation in the medium - term. The MPOB monthly report may have short - term negative impacts, but there is a seasonal upward trend. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Spot sugar prices in major regions also declined, except for processed sugar, which remained stable. Green Pool expects Thailand's sugar production to increase by 6% in the 2025/26 season but decrease in the 2026/27 season. As of November 30, 2025, India's sugar production increased year - on - year. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased in the week ending December 10 [9][10]. - **Strategy**: With an expected increase in global sugar production, international sugar prices may not improve significantly until next year's first quarter. Domestic sugar prices are at a low level, and short - term observation is recommended [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile. The spot price index increased slightly. As of December 12, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, unchanged from the previous week. The global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season was slightly adjusted downwards [13]. - **Strategy**: Although the previous peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad. With the commodity market's rebound, short - term capital inflows may push up cotton prices, but a unilateral trend is unlikely [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were mostly stable over the weekend, with some areas showing weakness. The laying hen inventory remains high, and short - term demand is unlikely to increase [17]. - **Strategy**: The futures market's near - month contracts may squeeze the premium, and long - term attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose over the weekend. Snow in the north affected pig sales, and consumption in both the north and south increased due to the cold weather [20]. - **Strategy**: With the approaching consumption peak, the spot market is warming up, and the futures market is stabilizing. However, due to high supply in the near - month, the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short after the consumption - driven rebound, and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far - month contracts [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The corn market is in a state of shock. The futures price of the 2603 contract stabilized at the support of the 20 - day moving average, and the near - month 2601 contract continued to reduce positions with funds shifting to the March contract. The spot price in the Northeast is slightly weak, and the purchase and sales activity in the market is not high. Technically, the 3 - and 5 - month contracts face price pressure, and short - term technical adjustments are required. It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions with a light position, and the medium - term trend continues to face the pressure of the previous high on the weekly chart [2]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans fluctuated little due to weak export data and a slight downward adjustment of the Brazilian soybean production forecast by some institutions. The domestic protein meal continued to rebound, with a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The increase of soybean meal exceeded that of rapeseed meal. There is news that the customs will extend the clearance time of imported soybeans, which drives the price of soybean meal up. The strategy is mainly short - term [2]. - Oils: BMD palm oil rose slightly, following the strength of the surrounding market. High - frequency data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 10 decreased by 15% month - on - month, but the yield increased by 6.87% month - on - month. The decline in the production reduction expectation restricted the increase of the Malaysian palm oil price. The US soybean oil declined, following the decline of crude oil. In the domestic market, the oils continued to recover, with rapeseed oil leading the rise. The terminal demand for oils is weak. The strategy is to sell call options and participate in the futures market short - term [2]. - Eggs: The egg futures fluctuated and adjusted. The supply is sufficient, which limits the rebound of the egg price. The short - term futures price fluctuates and adjusts. It is recommended to wait and see for future operation opportunities, and continuously pay attention to the impact of the breeding end's replenishment and elimination willingness on production capacity [2][3]. - Pigs: The futures price of pigs is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The near - month contracts are affected by factors such as the spot price and pig diseases, and the price hits a new low. The 7 - and 9 - month contracts in the long - term have limited declines. The spot pig price is strong in the north and weak in the south. Technically, the long - term contracts of pigs show a relatively strong performance, and it is judged that the long - term contracts of pigs will continue to rebound with light - position long orders [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Research Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs on Thursday, December 12, 2025, including futures price trends, spot price changes, and supply - demand situations, and gives corresponding investment strategies [2][3]. Market Information - The US 2025/2026 annual soybean export net sales are 69.6 tons, and the 2026/2027 annual soybean net sales are 0 tons [4]. - US private exporters reported selling 26.4 tons of soybeans to China and 18.6 tons of corn and 22.6 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 year [4]. - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the 2025/26 annual soybean production will reach 1.771236 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the sown area will reach 48.9356 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [4]. - The China National Grain Reserves Corporation will conduct central reserve frozen pork rotation and outbound auction transactions on December 15, 16, and 17, with 20,500 tons, 21,500 tons, and 4,500 tons respectively [5]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various variety spreads, including contract spreads (such as corn 1 - 5 spread, soybean meal 1 - 5 spread, etc.) and contract basis (such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc.) through multiple charts [6][7][8][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed trend, with hog prices rising sharply and soybean meal prices falling significantly. The hog market is in a situation of strong supply and demand, and the soybean meal market is under pressure from abundant imports and high inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Hog prices have risen sharply as the year - end approaches, with the hog market entering a period of strong supply and demand. The demand for sausage - making in the north and bacon - curing in the south is increasing, and hog futures prices have rebounded strongly from low levels and may continue to strengthen. Soybean meal prices have fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and a rebound in soybean meal inventory to over one million tons, and its futures prices have entered a downward trend [1]. 3.2. Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1. Hogs - Focus: The main contract 2603 of hogs has risen sharply, boosted by improved demand. Supply is abundant in December as large - scale pig enterprises increase their出栏. Demand has increased with the arrival of winter, and the开工 rate of slaughtering enterprises has rebounded. The futures price has broken through the 20 - day moving average and entered an upward trend. The strategy is to close short positions and hold light long positions [2]. 3.2.2. Soybean Meal - Focus: The main contract 2605 of soybean meal has fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans and high inventory pressure. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a 13.4% year - on - year increase. The total soybean imports in the first 11 months reached 103.79 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. The inventory has rebounded to about 1.2 million tons. The futures price has broken through the moving average system and entered a downward trend. The strategy is to continue to look for resistance levels to short lightly [3]. 3.2.3. Palm Oil - Focus: The main contract 2605 of Dalian palm oil has oscillated and declined. The market is cautious before the release of the MPOB report, and some long positions have been liquidated. The futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions, conduct short - term trading, and wait for important data to enter trend positions [5]. 3.2.4. Red Dates - Focus: The main contract 2605 of red dates has first risen and then declined, with limited rebound. The peak consumption season is in conflict with high supply and inventory, leading to large price fluctuations. The acquisition progress in the main production areas of Xinjiang is about 90%, and the price of new dates has stabilized. However, the concentrated listing of new dates and high inventory of old dates limit the rebound space. The strategy is short - term trading [8]. 3.2.5. Apples - Focus: The main contract 2605 of apples has oscillated and declined from a high position. The inventory in production areas is relatively low, but the market trading speed is slow, and the sales volume is average. Citrus competing fruits also impact apple consumption. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [9][11]. 3.2.6. Eggs - Focus: The main contract 2601 of eggs has rebounded from a low position as the market anticipates improved demand at the end of the year. The egg - laying hen inventory is still high, but the market expects better demand. The latest data shows a decline in the number of old hens sold. The futures price has rebounded and oscillated, standing above the 5 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [12]. 3.2.7. Sugar - Focus: The main contract 2601 of Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded from a low position due to technical correction and short - covering. However, the supply pressure of new sugar is still large as the sugar - cane crushing progress in Guangxi and Yunnan continues, with 50 sugar mills in operation. The futures price is still below the moving averages, and the downward trend has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions [14]. 3.2.8. Cotton - Focus: The main contract 2601 of cotton has oscillated and closed up, with high - level operation. The sales rate of Xinjiang cotton is high, and the demand has significantly increased. The textile enterprises in Xinjiang have a high operating rate, and the orders are sufficient. The transportation cost of cotton has increased. The market confidence of the textile industry has been boosted. The futures price has recovered the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to hold long positions [17]. 3.2.9. Peanuts - Focus: The main contract 2603 of peanuts has fallen significantly, with a weakening trend. The supply in various production areas is limited, and the demand is also weak. Food factories have only rigid demand, and the trading activity in the domestic market is low. Oil mills have a low operating rate, strictly control quality, and continue to lower purchase prices. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to short lightly [18][20].