Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's trade surplus for the first half of the year reached $19.48 billion, a 26% increase from $15.45 billion in the same period last year, driven by strong exports in June, particularly in palm oil and gold jewelry [1] Trade Performance - The trade surplus for January to June 2023 was $19.48 billion, up from $15.45 billion in the same period of 2022, marking a 26% growth [1] - June exports amounted to $23.44 billion, reflecting an 11.29% year-on-year increase [1] - Key contributors to the strong trade performance included a surge in palm oil and gold jewelry exports, as well as preemptive exports to the U.S. before tariff implementation [1] Export Dynamics - In June, Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to the U.S. increased by 33.5% year-on-year, with major products including electronic machinery, clothing, footwear, palm oil, rubber, and seafood [1] U.S.-Indonesia Trade Agreement - A recent agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia will reduce U.S. import tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19%, with potential further reductions on certain U.S. products lacking domestic production [1] - Indonesia has agreed to eliminate tariffs on 99% of U.S. industrial goods, food, and agricultural products, and has committed to purchasing more U.S. goods [1] Future Trade Outlook - Economists suggest that the new U.S. tariffs could pressure Indonesia's trade surplus, as increased imports may coincide with declining prices for major commodities like coal [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of unilateralism and trade protectionism poses challenges to global economic cooperation, while also presenting opportunities for China-Latin America (LAC) economic and trade collaboration [1] Group 1: Strengthening Mechanisms and Long-term Cooperation - Emphasizing the importance of multilateral trade mechanisms and enhancing the synergy between China's free trade zone construction and LAC's integration efforts [1] - Strengthening the role of the China-LAC Forum to address challenges posed by trade protectionism [1] - Promoting the upgrading of existing free trade agreements and increasing trade liberalization levels to support service trade and bilateral investments [1] Group 2: Expanding Market Boundaries and Trade Goods - Exploring the potential of bilateral trade by increasing the range of tradable goods, particularly focusing on agricultural products from LAC [2] - Encouraging LAC countries to utilize trade fairs to enhance their presence in China and stabilize trade [2] - Promoting the import of Chinese intermediate goods to strengthen LAC's supply chain resilience [2] Group 3: Optimizing Vertical Division of Labor - Encouraging cross-border industrial chain cooperation and bilateral investments to mitigate the impact of international market fluctuations [3] - Promoting local supply chain integration in LAC to create jobs and facilitate faster integration of investment enterprises into local economies [3] - Advocating for corporate social responsibility and adherence to local laws and cultural differences [3] Group 4: Enhancing Infrastructure Connectivity - Promoting comprehensive collaboration in infrastructure to create better conditions for economic cooperation [4] - Utilizing the Belt and Road Initiative to guide investments into infrastructure projects [4] - Addressing key bottlenecks in transportation and logistics to enhance trade efficiency [4] Group 5: Promoting Technological Applications and Innovative Cooperation - Leveraging advancements in technology, such as artificial intelligence, to create better platforms for LAC to benefit from technological dividends [5] - Encouraging various forms of technological innovation cooperation to increase the technological content of China-LAC economic relations [5] - Fostering cross-border e-commerce and cultural exchanges to enrich bilateral cooperation [5]

证券研究报告 宏观 中国对美关税上升下的进口与替代 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 21 日│中国内地 专题研究 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com 反制措施对中国整体物价水平的影响可能较为温和，然而，短期内自美进 口规模较大、以及对美进口依赖度较高的行业或面临局部"堵点"和阶段 性通胀压力。从绝对规模看，去年中国自美进口的电子机械、农产品、化工、 能源等产品规模均超过 1500 亿元；从相对规模看，中国进口的运输设备部 件（如发动机等）和精密仪器中约五分之一来自美国，尤其是仪表仪器、以 及铁路、船舶和航天制造业的自美进口规模分别占该行业营收的 6.5%、 4.3%，显示对美依赖度相对较高。对于一些核心技术产品而言，进口分流 或国产替代可能需要时间，短期内上述行业或将面临一定的价格上行压力。 结合中国自美进口商品结构，预计对美关税上升将加速农产品、半导体设 备、药品、飞机等领域的进口"分流"，以及化工、汽车、半导体等领域的 国产替代。 虽然进口多元化或国产替代将提供一定的缓冲，但中美这全球前两大经济 体间贸易大幅收缩对全球供应链的冲击、及其"蝴蝶效应"值得高度警惕。 2023 年中美两国货物进口与 G ...