Core Viewpoint - The spot gold price has surged, breaking the historical high of $4550.520 per ounce set on December 29, 2025, and reaching $4550.880 per ounce, reflecting a 0.93% increase [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic gold jewelry market has also seen an increase, with prices for Lao Miao Gold and Chow Sang Sang rising to 1429 CNY per gram, up by 22 CNY and 19 CNY respectively [1] - As of the end of December 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons), with a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons), marking 14 consecutive months of accumulation [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council reports that gold has performed strongly in 2025, with prices expected to rise by 15%-30% in 2026, driven by investment demand, particularly in gold ETFs, which will offset weak demand from the jewelry and technology sectors [3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, aimed at normalizing monetary policy amid easing core inflation, are expected to support metal prices, particularly precious metals and copper [5] - The outlook for 2026 indicates a high certainty of gold price increases, driven by expectations of U.S. monetary and fiscal easing, with a model predicting international gold prices could exceed $5100 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5] - The current gold market is in a favorable environment due to the resonance of policy and capital, with short-term fluctuations not altering the long-term upward trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant upward movement, with spot gold prices surpassing $4,400 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 and heightened geopolitical tensions that are fostering safe-haven demand [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold rose by 1.59% to $4,400.530 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.55% [1]. - The rise in gold prices is primarily attributed to the growing market anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 2: Upcoming Events and Data - Key upcoming events include the potential rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index from January 8 to 14, which may lead to technical adjustments in gold and silver positions, with estimated sell-off volumes potentially accounting for 9% of total silver holdings and 3% of total gold holdings [3]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll and unemployment data for December, set to be released on January 9, is expected to significantly impact gold prices [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, including military actions and diplomatic statements, are contributing to the rise in safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The situation is further complicated by ongoing drone attacks in Russia, attributed to Ukraine, which adds to the overall geopolitical uncertainty [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicate a 17.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January, with an 82.8% chance of maintaining current rates. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 44.1% [4]. - The dual influence of monetary policy expectations and safe-haven sentiment is expected to continue driving gold prices in the near term [4].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility at the start of 2026, with initial declines followed by a surge in demand due to geopolitical tensions, leading to expectations of a gap up in prices on the following trading day [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Price Decline - The decline in gold prices at the beginning of 2026 was driven by three main factors: a strengthening US dollar, a decrease in core inflation to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, and better-than-expected employment data, which reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [3]. - Global market risk sentiment improved, with Eurozone manufacturing data returning to expansion and signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy, leading some investors to shift funds from gold to riskier assets like stocks [3]. - Profit-taking by investors after a more than 10% increase in gold prices in Q4 2025 contributed to short-term selling pressure [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Events as Catalysts - Recent geopolitical events have heightened market tensions, typically leading to increased investment in gold as a safe-haven asset, especially if the events involve resource-rich countries, which can also affect inflation expectations through energy prices [4]. - Such events can also impact market confidence in the US dollar, providing indirect support for gold prices [4]. - The occurrence of these events during market closures led to expectations of a gap up in gold prices when trading resumed, with future price movements dependent on the clarity of the geopolitical situation [4]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Gold Price Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are expected to be influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, with potential upward movement towards previous highs of $4,550 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices may exceed 1,400 yuan per gram [5]. - If geopolitical tensions ease, the market focus may shift back to fundamentals, potentially leading to a decline towards the $4,300 support level [5]. - Long-term support for gold prices remains strong, with high demand from central banks expected to continue, and predictions suggest an average monthly purchase of several dozen tons in 2026 [6]. - The overall direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy remains conducive to gold, as further economic weakness may lead to more accommodative monetary policies, reducing the cost of holding gold [6]. - From an asset allocation perspective, there is still room for increased gold holdings in investment portfolios, which could serve as a long-term driver for gold prices [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its upcoming two-day policy meeting, with a probability of 90%, significantly up from 66% in November [1] - Analysts warn that this rate cut could be a "hawkish cut," indicating potential future tightening despite the current easing [1] - The meeting will focus on potential divisions in policy votes, updated economic forecasts, and how the Fed will manage its balance sheet to adjust market liquidity [3] Group 2 - There is a general expectation of two rate cuts next year, but the timing varies among institutions, with predictions ranging from January and April to March and June [3] - The leadership structure of the Federal Reserve may change next year, which could impact future monetary policy direction [3] - The gold market remains supported by ongoing central bank purchases, with some market participants viewing short-term price corrections as buying opportunities [3][4] Group 3 - Despite potential short-term pressures on gold prices from rising real interest rates, long-term demand for safe-haven assets and central bank purchases are expected to provide support [4] - Market views suggest that gold prices could challenge the historic level of $5,000 per ounce by the first quarter of 2026 [4] - Current gold prices are in a critical technical balance area, reflecting a cautious market weighing interest rate pressures against structural bullish factors [4]

Market Performance - On December 4, the three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly declining, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices experienced slight increases. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index recorded an increase on the same day [1]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have strengthened, with indications that a 25 basis point cut may be implemented in the upcoming meeting. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is nearing 90% according to the CME monitoring tool [3]. - There is greater uncertainty regarding the interest rate path for 2026, with some analysts suggesting that multiple policy factors could lead to accelerated economic growth in the U.S. by that year [3]. Gold Market Outlook - On December 5, gold prices fluctuated within a narrow range as market sentiment turned cautious ahead of key inflation data releases. If the data indicates easing inflationary pressures, it could provide upward momentum for gold prices [3]. - The latest employment data has exceeded expectations, alleviating some concerns regarding the labor market [3]. - Looking ahead to 2026, gold prices will continue to be influenced by a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with expectations of maintaining a range-bound trading pattern. However, the actual trajectory will depend on economic growth, interest rate changes, and policy effectiveness, with potential outcomes ranging from moderate increases to significant strength, as well as the possibility of pressure from unexpected economic growth and rising interest rates [3].

Group 1 - The core focus for investors when choosing an investment platform is safety and a good experience, with Bailihou integrating technology into service details to reshape the investment experience around safety, efficiency, and convenience [1] Group 2 - Technological iteration is the driving force behind Bailihou's service upgrades, with continuous optimization of the APP interface and functionality to create a user-friendly environment, enabling new investors to quickly familiarize themselves with the process [3] - The platform has achieved industry-leading speed in market data response, allowing investors to accurately capture rapidly changing market opportunities, which has earned Bailihou high recognition in the industry, including the "Best Forex Mobile Trading Platform" award in 2025 [3] - Bailihou seamlessly integrates the MT5 professional trading system with real-time financial news and in-depth market analysis, helping investors navigate complex markets [3] Group 3 - Safety is the lifeline of investment services, and Bailihou has established a multi-dimensional, systematic security guarantee system, employing multiple encryption technologies to ensure the security of user data transmission and transaction processes [5] - The platform is regulated by international authorities such as the Securities Commission of The Bahamas (SCB), adhering strictly to international regulatory standards [5] - Bailihou implements a client fund segregation policy, ensuring complete separation of client funds from operational funds, effectively eliminating the risk of fund misappropriation [5] Group 4 - Bailihou's development is centered around the core philosophy of "technology-driven," which is integrated into every aspect of security, trading efficiency, and service convenience, representing an innovation in industry standards and a commitment to reshaping the investment experience and protecting investor interests [7]