长沙晚报全媒体评论员 山丘 白木 马年新春，气象万千。 正月初八，长沙以"新春第一会"锚定高质量发展航向；正月初九，"迎老乡 回故乡 建家乡"座谈会签约 260亿元落地实干。在"十五五"开局起跑节点，星城以战略之思、实干之举，完成的一次发展逻辑的系 统梳理与发展力量的全方位集结，奏响高质量发展开年强音，彰显出"大市挑大梁"的担当。 守初心笃行，以坚守强定力，让仪式感沉淀为发展确定性。 长沙连续6年以"新春第一会"聚焦高质量发展，这绝非惯例的简单重复，而是穿越经济周期的战略坚 守。不随短期指标波动改航向，不因外部环境变化调步调，这份"年年如是、层层加力"的坚持，正是于 不确定性中给予市场、企业和社会最珍贵的定心丸。 会上，40家企业轮番亮相电子屏，中联重科、三一集团的重工脊梁，蓝思科技、安克创新的智造活力， 鸣鸣很忙、颐而康的民生温度，共同汇成长沙发展的"英雄榜"。榜单清晰昭示：城市竞争的核心是产业 竞争，发展的主角永远是市场主体。当政府把聚光灯交给企业、把资源配置的指挥棒交给市场，便为城 市竞争力注入了不竭的源头活水，让高质量发展的定力，沉淀为扎根星城的发展信心。 谋发展实干，以部署促落地，让战略部署转化为硬 ...

惊天转向！印度官宣停购俄油，半世纪俄印能源同盟轰然生变 【Oilprice网 2月9日报道】 若印度切实履行上述承诺，此举不仅将直接冲击俄罗斯为数不多稳定的财政收入来源，亦将加速印度能源进口结构的战略性重 构，并向国际社会清晰传递其外交与能源政策协同转向的信号，地缘经济影响或将辐射到亚太及中东等广泛区域。 美印此次协议的核心在于一项简洁却影响深远的贸易置换：印度以停止进口俄油为交换条件，换取美国对印降税，即将印度商品 关税从50%大幅降至18%。与此同时，印方还承诺，未来将采购价值超过5000亿美元的美国能源、技术、农产品等各类商品，双 方商业合作规模将超越单纯的原油贸易范畴。这种转变已在各项数据中清晰显现：俄罗斯对印原油出口量从一年前的日均150万 桶骤降至今年1月的43.6万桶，同期美国对印原油出口稳步增加，中东海湾地区对印原油供应量更飙升至日均300万桶，印度炼油 商的供应链调整已全面铺开。 印度疏远俄油的决策之所以影响深远，核心在于这一举措动摇了数十年来支撑印度外交与能源政策最稳固支柱之一。长期以来， 俄罗斯对印度而言不仅是战略后盾，更是廉价原油、折扣成品油以及传统军用装备的主要供应来源。即便在乌克兰 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the transition into an "Asian Century," highlighting the decline of American dominance and the rise of China as a global power [1][2] - It emphasizes that while the U.S. is abandoning multilateralism, globalization's winners are primarily in Asia, with China and the U.S. now on equal footing in many areas [2][3] - The article notes that China's industrial strength and innovation capabilities have significantly increased, with statistics showing that from 2011 to 2013, China's cement consumption exceeded that of the U.S. for the entire 20th century [3] Group 2 - The article argues that the current global power structure is in a complex transition, where the rise of one power often leads to the decline of another, specifically pointing out Germany's diminishing role in the new order [4] - It highlights that the political mechanisms known since 1945 are becoming ineffective, and there is a need for European strategic autonomy in shaping a multipolar world [4] - The article suggests that the future political landscape should focus on resilience and managing decline with dignity, as the traditional narratives of progress may no longer hold true [4]

Core Insights - Geoeconomics has evolved from an academic concept to a significant topic in global economics and policy, shifting from cooperation in globalization to competition driven by economic means [2] - The analysis by CICC Research Institute and CICC Research Department explores the implications of geoeconomic competition on macroeconomic policies and frameworks [2] Group 1: Historical Context and Policy Shifts - Since the late 1970s, economic liberalism, centered around neoclassical economics, has dominated, leading to globalization and financialization [3] - The macroeconomic policy framework has focused on controlling inflation, with a combination of inflation targeting, floating exchange rates, and trade and financial liberalization [4] - The rise of financial crises and increasing wealth disparity have prompted reflections on neoclassical economics, leading to a shift towards protectionism and increased financial regulation post-2008 financial crisis [5] Group 2: Geoeconomic Competition and Macroeconomic Policy - Geoeconomic competition emphasizes the importance of economies of scale in international trade and global supply chains, challenging traditional trade theories [6] - Technological advancements have become a core area of competition among nations, necessitating increased government involvement in research and development [7] - The non-neutrality of money may manifest in new forms, affecting economic structures and necessitating responses to supply chain risks and trade protection measures [8] Group 3: Supply Constraints and Global Trade Dynamics - The increase in supply constraints has implications for long-term economic growth, with economies of scale being a key driver of global trade expansion [9] - Geoeconomic competition has led to the use of trade protectionism and technology export restrictions, impacting the efficiency of economies of scale [10] - The competition between the U.S. and China highlights the significance of economic scale, with China as a trade surplus nation and the U.S. focusing on enhancing its manufacturing capacity [11] Group 4: Technological and Economic Shifts - The transition to green energy and the rise of the digital economy are significant trends that promote economies of scale, contrasting with the constraints imposed by geoeconomic competition [12] - The dynamics of technological advancement and innovation are critical in understanding the evolving landscape of geoeconomic competition [13] Group 5: Geoeconomic and Technological Interplay - The emergence of "geoeconomic technology" reflects the growing importance of technology in geoeconomic competition, with nations vying for dominance in strategic technologies [14] - The U.S. and China are engaged in intense competition over high-tech resources, impacting global supply chains and economic structures [15] Group 6: Fiscal Policy and Financialization - The trend of de-financialization is evident in the increasing number of financial sanctions and the rising role of fiscal policy in the global economy [18] - U.S. fiscal deficits have risen significantly, impacting monetary supply and economic demand, with implications for inflation and trade balances [19][20] - The increase in defense spending among nations reflects a shift in fiscal priorities, influencing demand without directly enhancing supply capabilities [21] Group 7: Economic Scale and Global Competition - The competition between large economies emphasizes the importance of absolute economic scale, with smaller economies facing challenges in achieving economies of scale [23] - The future of geoeconomic competition will be primarily centered around the U.S. and China, with implications for manufacturing, digital economy, and monetary finance [24] - China's manufacturing sector benefits from economies of scale, while the U.S. leverages its consumer market to influence global trade dynamics [25] Group 8: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The interplay between supply capabilities and demand dynamics is crucial for understanding the ongoing geoeconomic competition, with both nations needing to address structural weaknesses [27] - Fiscal expansion is necessary for maintaining economic stability and supporting the transition to new growth drivers in the face of geoeconomic challenges [28]

在中国的最后一天，斯塔默在上海 C ity W alk ，逛了逛豫园的花灯展，在上海街头买了一盒蝴蝶酥，还颇有兴致地观赏上海大学生设计的花灯。 他非常喜欢其中一只马头灯饰，纹样是英国标志性的苏格兰红绿格纹。他曾向陪同的中国官员询问 "马年"的寓意，对方解释："马在中国文化中象 征着幸运与成功，寓意'马到成功、一马当先'。" 点击按钮▲立即收听 " 欧洲国家们从二战后持续 80 多年的、繁荣而优雅的梦境里醒了过来，开始审视自身的困境，并重新规划路线。 " 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 英国首相斯塔默结束了为期 4 天的访华行程。 这是英国首相时隔 8 年再次访华。路透社报道称，英国与中国将寻求重启 21 世纪初的两国关系，那时被称为中英关系的"黄金时代"。 英国商贸大臣凯尔则对中国媒体表示： "我认为我们已超越'黄金时代'的模式。我们曾陷于走走停停的误区，而如今中国与英国进入了以长远战略 视角推进双边关系的新阶段。" 中欧 "破冰"不止于此。这是多年未见的一幕：不到三个月的时间里，欧洲各国轮番出动，带着浩浩荡荡的代表团来到中国。 去年 11 月，西班牙国王费利佩六世携王后来华，这是西班牙国王时隔 18 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the shift in economic policy goals under the influence of geopolitical considerations, where resource allocation is increasingly influenced by geopolitical objectives rather than purely economic development [3][4][5] - The article discusses the historical context of resource allocation optimization, highlighting the negative consequences of policies driven by geopolitical motives, which can lead to long-term economic inefficiencies and reduced national competitiveness [4][5] - The current tariff war is identified as a significant aspect of geopolitical economics, with the U.S. implementing both universal tariffs and differential tariffs based on political and economic interests, which contradicts established international trade principles [7][8][10] Group 2 - The article critiques the U.S. approach to tariffs as a monetary policy tool aimed at addressing trade imbalances, noting that such measures can lead to resource misallocation and may provoke retaliatory actions from other countries [8][10] - It highlights the challenges faced by multilateral trade rules, particularly in the context of the WTO, which is currently hindered by U.S. opposition and limited progress in reform discussions [13][14] - The discussion includes the need for reforming the origin certification process in trade, suggesting that the current system is outdated and can lead to unintended consequences, advocating for a shift towards value-added methods for managing tariffs [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of geopolitical economics and its impact on economic policy objectives, emphasizing the need for a careful analysis of resource allocation and the potential long-term consequences of prioritizing geopolitical goals over economic efficiency [4][5][6]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economic Context - China is facing unprecedented external challenges due to rising unilateralism and protectionism, as highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the People's Bank of China, provided insights on the three key dimensions of geopolitical economics during a closed-door seminar, offering new perspectives on the current situation [4]. Group 2: Changes in Economic Policy Objectives - Economic policies have shifted from primarily focusing on development to incorporating geopolitical considerations, which may lead to suboptimal resource allocation [5]. - Historical examples, such as the Cold War, illustrate how prioritizing geopolitical goals can adversely affect a nation's economic strength in the long run [5][6]. Group 3: Resource Allocation and Economic Efficiency - The article presents a microeconomic example from China in the late 20th century, where tariff distortions led to overcapacity in the textile industry, demonstrating the importance of optimal resource allocation [6][7]. - Measures taken for geopolitical reasons, such as tariffs, can result in significant resource misallocation and long-term competitiveness issues [7][9]. Group 4: Current Tariff Wars - The U.S. tariff strategy includes both a general tariff rate and differential tariffs based on product or country, which contradicts established international trade rules [9][10]. - The imposition of tariffs can lead to resource misallocation and may provoke retaliatory measures from other countries, undermining overall economic efficiency [9][10]. Group 5: Multilateral Rules and Challenges - The article emphasizes the importance of multilateralism and the need to support reforms within the World Trade Organization (WTO) to address current challenges in international trade [12][13]. - The concept of origin certification is discussed, highlighting its limitations in the context of globalized supply chains and the need for reform to better reflect value addition [14][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the changing landscape of economic policy goals under the influence of geopolitical factors, where resource allocation is increasingly influenced by geopolitical considerations rather than purely economic development [3][4] - The article discusses the potential long-term economic impacts of prioritizing geopolitical goals over optimal resource allocation, suggesting that even a small decrease in resource allocation efficiency can have significant negative effects on a country's economic strength [5][6] - It highlights the historical context of resource misallocation due to geopolitical considerations, using examples from China's past to illustrate the consequences of such policies [5][6] Group 2 - The article analyzes the current tariff wars, particularly focusing on the U.S. approach to tariffs, which includes both universal tariffs and differentiated tariffs based on political and economic interests [7][8] - It argues that the imposition of a universal 15% tariff by the U.S. could be seen as a monetary policy tool aimed at addressing trade imbalances, but warns that it may lead to resource misallocation and retaliatory measures from other countries [8][10] - The discussion includes the limitations of relying on tariffs for fiscal balance, suggesting that such an approach reflects an outdated economic policy framework [10] Group 3 - The article addresses the challenges facing multilateral rules in the context of international trade, emphasizing the need for a rules-based international order and the importance of the WTO in maintaining these principles [11][12] - It points out the stagnation of the WTO's dispute resolution mechanism and the limited progress in new rule negotiations, particularly under the pressures of recent geopolitical tensions [11][12] - The article suggests that reforms to the rules governing origin certification could help mitigate the misuse of tariffs and promote a more equitable multilateral trading system [13][14] Group 4 - The article outlines the broader implications of geopolitical economics, noting that the current global economic environment is characterized by increased supply constraints and a shift towards fiscal expansion, which elevates the importance of tangible assets [17] - It highlights China's unique advantages in strategic sectors such as green industries and artificial intelligence, suggesting that these could play a crucial role in the global economic restructuring driven by geopolitical factors [17] - The book aims to provide a comprehensive framework for understanding the trends in geopolitical economic competition, offering policy recommendations for various stakeholders [17]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Risks - The World Economic Forum (WEF) 2026 Annual Meeting concluded with a consensus that the global economy is at a critical juncture, with artificial intelligence, green transition, and digital economy emerging as key growth engines [1] - The WEF's Global Risk Report 2026 identifies geopolitical economic confrontation as the primary global risk, followed by regional armed conflicts, extreme weather events, social polarization, and the spread of misinformation [2] - 53% of chief economists surveyed believe that the global economy will face multiple uncertainties in the coming year, with risks from asset revaluation volatility and debt accumulation intertwining with geopolitical economic restructuring and AI technology application [2] Group 2: Importance of Dialogue and Cooperation - The WEF emphasizes the necessity of dialogue to bridge divides and stabilize expectations, advocating for collaborative efforts to promote inclusive growth [3] - Experts express strong concerns about protectionism and unilateralism, stating that such policies undermine global innovation and exacerbate development imbalances, particularly affecting developing countries [3][4] - The WEF calls for enhanced global cooperation to address the challenges posed by fragmentation and to support institutions like the WEF, World Bank, and WTO in managing uncertainties [4] Group 3: Technological Advancements and Governance - The WEF's report on the future of the new economy highlights that technological progress and geopolitical dynamics will shape the global economy by 2030, necessitating collaborative governance to address new risks [5] - The rise of AI and geopolitical fragmentation is redefining global cybersecurity risks, requiring international cooperation to establish unified governance rules for new technologies [5][6] - Experts advocate for a global technology governance system to prevent misuse of new technologies and ensure equitable access to development opportunities [6]

Group 1 - The 56th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting will be held in Davos, Switzerland, from January 19 to 23, with the theme "Spirit of Dialogue" focusing on geopolitical games, AI governance, Greenland issues, and Ukraine peace progress [1] - The attendance at this year's forum is at a record high, with over 60 world leaders and approximately 3,000 representatives from over 130 countries, including ministers and central bank governors [1] - Key figures from the business sector include CEOs from Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Google DeepMind, and OpenAI, indicating strong corporate representation [1] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to request more weapons and security guarantees from Trump during the forum, as well as discuss the Ukrainian economic prosperity agreement [2] - Trump may also hold the inaugural meeting of the "Gaza Peace Committee," which has been criticized as a geopolitical tool attempting to create a "parallel United Nations" [2] - Discussions on technological advancements will focus on AI, including issues like low-quality content generation, the electricity gap, inclusive AI, quantum economy, and regulatory technology [2] Group 3 - The latest "Chief Economists Outlook" report from the World Economic Forum highlights rising asset valuations, increasing debt levels, adjustments in geopolitical economic patterns, and rapid AI deployment, which present both opportunities and risks [2] - The "Global Risks Report 2026" released before the forum indicates that geopolitical and economic risks are intensifying in the new competitive era, with geopolitical economic confrontation being the most severe risk in the short to medium term [2] - Other major risks identified for 2026 include armed conflict between nations, extreme weather, social polarization, and misinformation, with concerns over rising debt and potential asset bubbles exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts [3]