美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在2025年11月7日去了南卡罗来纳州萨姆特的eVAC Magnetics工厂视察，这 地方刚投产，出了第一块钕铁硼永磁体，这种东西用在电动车、风力发电机和F-35战斗机上。eVAC是 德国Vacuumschmelze公司的美国子公司，工厂建在波科塔利戈工业园区，占地85亩左右，从2023年动 工，到2025年秋天开始运营。 国防部给了国防生产法第三标题的资助，还有1.119亿美元的合格先进能源项目税收抵免，帮助工厂搞 大规模生产。南卡州官员说，运营起来后能多出几百个岗位。贝森特在那儿说，这块磁铁是25年来美国 本土产的第一块，标志着供应链开始摆脱依赖。 他还把这事跟整体经济复苏和就业拉上关系，说制造 业会在2026年和2027年继续起飞。贝森特提到了特朗普的稀土资源行政命令，说这命令帮了大忙，南卡 州长亨利·麦克马斯特也功不可没，因为州审批只用了八周就搞定。 工厂的生产线主要是做钕铁硼磁体最后的成型步骤，这一步在美国已经中断了25年。之前，美国在稀土 磁体制造上基本靠进口，尤其是从中国那边。中国控制了全球大部分稀土供应和加工，美国国防和工业 部门一直担心供应链被卡住。eVAC的工厂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of China's dual circulation economy under new geopolitical conditions, highlighting the interplay between internal and external cycles, with a focus on innovation and domestic demand as key drivers for economic growth [3][4]. Internal Circulation - The financial cycle is in a downward phase, characterized by weak demand relative to supply, leading to increased savings. This situation is exacerbated by real estate adjustments and debt tightening, which have resulted in a decline in rental and cost pressures, thereby improving supply in the real economy [9][10]. - The stock market's rise in China is primarily attributed to a decrease in risk premiums, reflecting improved market expectations, while corporate profit growth has contributed less significantly [3][4]. - The current debt burden is a significant drag on demand, necessitating external support, such as fiscal expansion, to stimulate economic activity and break the deadlock caused by deleveraging [10][39]. Scale Economy and Innovation - The article emphasizes the need for China to reassess its innovation capabilities, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence (AI). The breakthrough of DeepSeek is highlighted as a pivotal moment that has enhanced investor confidence in China's overall innovation capacity [5][15]. - The concept of scale economy is crucial, as it suggests that the development of AI models is currently experiencing diminishing returns, and the ability to generate increasing returns on a broader scale will be key for future advancements [4][21]. - The article posits that technological progress, particularly in AI, is essential for improving productivity and addressing social welfare needs, thereby creating a favorable environment for innovation and consumption [41]. External Circulation - The article notes a significant shift in China's export patterns, with a 25.7% decrease in exports to the U.S. following new tariff policies, while overall export growth remains at 6.4%. This indicates a structural change rather than a total decline in trade [25][26]. - China's exports are increasingly directed towards emerging markets and Belt and Road countries, focusing on capital goods and intermediate products rather than consumer goods, reflecting a strategic pivot in trade relationships [26][30]. - The article suggests that a new model of external circulation is emerging, where China is investing in local markets through loans and direct investments, particularly in green industries, which is expected to be accelerated by the U.S. tariff increases in 2025 [37][38]. Key to Internal Circulation: Stimulating Consumption and Deleveraging - The article argues that stimulating domestic consumption is critical for achieving macroeconomic balance and fostering innovation. Fiscal expansion, particularly in areas related to social welfare, is seen as a vital tool for enhancing consumption demand [39][41]. - The potential implementation of personal credit relief policies is highlighted as a significant step towards alleviating individual debt burdens, which could enhance consumer resilience against economic shocks [40][41].

地缘经济观察暨新书分享会 20251024 摘要 地缘经济形成背后有两个深层次原因。首先是数字时代的全球化，这降低了不 同地理空间之间的信息交互成本，使各国之间的距离拉近，形成了密集的全球 产业链和价值链，各国间依赖关系增强，从而使得使用经济手段变得更加有效。 例如，美国对中国实施关税，中国立刻感受到影响，这说明两国间的相互作用 比几十年前更强。其次，在全球化之后，国家间最突出的问题往往是与经济相 关，而不是领土问题，例如欧洲脱欧、美国工业空心化等。这些因素导致了地 缘经济在未来可能持续发挥重要作用。 如何分类和理解国家使用的各种地缘经济手段？ 国家使用的地缘经济手段可以按照其目标和干预方式分为四大类：进攻、防御、 激励诱导、惩罚措施。进攻指的是削弱对方的能力，如关税制裁；防御则是增 强自身实力并抵御外部干涉；激励诱导通过提供产业政策或补贴吸引合作；惩 罚措施包括长臂管辖或出口管制等。这些手段丰富多样，中国政府也在不断寻 找制衡美国的方法。 地缘经济框架更适用于理解当前全球政治经济环境，其形成源于数字时 代的全球化和经济相关问题的突出，未来可能持续发挥重要作用。 国家使用的地缘经济手段可分为进攻、防御、激励诱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global green transition is facing challenges due to the dual impact of demand and supply side factors, particularly influenced by the Trump 2.0 energy policy, which may lead to a 6.3%-8% decline in cumulative global green product demand from 2025 to 2030 compared to baseline scenarios [2][3]. Group 1: Global Green Competition - The competition in the global green economy is characterized by two main aspects: the competition between fossil and green economies, and the competition among countries in the green industry [4][5]. - The Biden administration's policies are expected to accelerate the re-industrialization process in the U.S., posing new challenges for China's green industry [3][5]. Group 2: Global Green Demand - The Trump 2.0 policy is projected to directly impact U.S. green demand, which constitutes 5%-25% of global demand, potentially leading to a 17% decline in U.S. wind, solar, and storage demand by 2030 [8][11]. - The external spillover effects of the Trump 2.0 policy may weaken other countries' support for clean energy, particularly in nations with high fossil fuel self-sufficiency [11][14]. Group 3: Challenges for China's Green Supply - China's green industry faces increased trade barriers, including tariffs and non-tariff barriers, which may hinder its export capabilities [24][25]. - Investment restrictions in developed economies are tightening, making it more difficult for Chinese companies to invest abroad, particularly in the green technology sector [26][27]. Group 4: Impact on Key Green Industries - The negative impact on China's exports is expected to be most severe for electric vehicles, followed by lithium batteries and solar products, due to tariffs and declining demand in key markets [32][33]. - The shift from mergers and acquisitions to joint ventures and technology licensing may increase the risk of technology spillover, affecting China's competitive edge in green technologies [35][36]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - To stimulate domestic green demand, policies should focus on enhancing the consumption of green products and improving the infrastructure for renewable energy integration [44][45]. - Expanding regional trade cooperation and promoting green exports to developing countries can help mitigate the impact of geopolitical tensions [45][46]. - Strengthening intellectual property protection is crucial for maintaining China's leadership in green technology innovation [47].

Core Insights - The seminar hosted by CICC focused on the theme of "New Changes in Geoeconomics," featuring discussions on digital finance, energy transition, strategic industries, and technological development [3][10] - The event attracted nearly 380 participants from government, industry, academia, and investment sectors, highlighting the importance of geoeconomic restructuring [2][10] Summary by Sections Opening Remarks - The seminar commenced with opening remarks from CICC Chairman Chen Liang, setting the stage for discussions on the new geoeconomic landscape [3][5] Keynote Speakers - Notable speakers included former Governor of the People's Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan, Columbia University Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs, and Zheng Yongnian, Dean of the School of Public Policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) [5][7] Research Publication - CICC released a joint report titled "Geoeconomics: Changes and Restructuring," analyzing the implications of geoeconomic competition and potential policy responses, which received positive feedback from attendees [7][10] Expert Discussions - The afternoon sessions featured experts from various prestigious institutions, including the University of Chicago, Fudan University, and MIT, discussing trends in geoeconomics [9][10] CICC Global Institute - CICC Global Institute aims to serve as a new think tank for public policy research and international discussions, focusing on long-term development issues in the Chinese and global economy [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of international competition from traditional geopolitical dynamics to geoeconomic strategies, emphasizing the strategic use of economic tools to influence global relations and decision-making among nations [2][3]. Group 1: Transition from Globalization to Geoeconomic Competition - The rise of geoeconomics reflects a shift where economic tools are increasingly used to achieve national strategic goals, particularly evident in U.S. policies under the "America First" framework [4][6]. - Economic sanctions and trade barriers have become more prevalent, with a notable increase in their use since 2017, surpassing traditional military interventions [4][6]. - Geoeconomics provides a new analytical perspective that integrates international relations and economics, focusing on the strategic use of economic tools [3][6]. Group 2: Asymmetric Dependence in Economic Globalization - The article highlights that globalization has led to unprecedented economic interdependence among nations, characterized by asymmetrical dependencies that create opportunities for economic competition [7][10]. - The U.S. maintains a dominant position in the global financial system, leveraging its control over the dollar to influence international economic relations [10][12]. - Emerging economies, particularly China, are increasingly becoming critical players in global supply chains, reducing their dependency on traditional economic powers [18][19]. Group 3: Characteristics of Geoeconomic Competition - Geoeconomic competition is likely to become a new norm due to the changing nature of international conflicts, where economic tools are preferred over military options [19][20]. - Economic measures are flexible and controllable, allowing governments to adjust their strategies without escalating conflicts unnecessarily [19][20]. - The effectiveness of geoeconomic tools is contingent upon the nature of the issues at stake and the ability of nations to adapt to changing dependencies [20][21]. Group 4: Economic Tools and Their Classification - Economic tools in geoeconomic competition can be categorized based on strategic intent (offensive vs. defensive) and intervention methods (inducement vs. sanctions) [22][23]. - The classification framework helps in understanding how nations utilize economic resources to influence others' behaviors or capabilities [22][23]. Group 5: Sources of Economic Power - Economic power is derived from a nation's resource endowment and its control over key nodes in the global economic network [27][30]. - A country's ability to exert economic pressure is fundamentally linked to its economic endowment, including natural resources, capital, and technological capabilities [28][30]. - Control over critical nodes in global supply chains enhances a nation's influence, allowing it to leverage its economic advantages effectively [30][31]. Group 6: Quantitative Analysis of Geoeconomic Power - The article proposes a framework for quantifying economic power based on input-output networks, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economies [32][33]. - Key industries and their roles in the global economy are analyzed to identify critical nodes that hold significant leverage in geoeconomic competition [33][36]. - The evolution of supply and demand networks from 2000 to 2023 illustrates shifts in economic power dynamics among major economies, particularly the rise of China as a regional center [44][47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant changes in the global macroeconomic landscape and how China can seize new opportunities while facing challenges in this evolving environment [2][4]. - The rise of geopolitical economics and the trend of global fragmentation are identified as two important phenomena impacting the global economy [2][4]. - China's share in global exports continues to rise, influencing its foreign direct investment (FDI) strategies, particularly towards countries like South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam [4][6]. Group 2 - The concept of "centrality" in global supply chains is discussed, highlighting the importance of connectivity with key partners and China's pivotal role in manufacturing [4][5]. - The article notes that the future of trade is shifting from traditional goods to service trade, with China maintaining a central position in the global manufacturing chain [4][7]. - Companies that master intellectual property and service export capabilities are deemed to have the strongest resilience against shocks [7]. Group 3 - The article suggests that diversification of risks at both enterprise and national levels is essential in the context of rising geopolitical economics [6][7]. - It advocates for a transition from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in China," emphasizing the need for technological upgrades and self-sufficiency in critical sectors [7]. - The future competitive focus will shift towards defining technological pathways, setting standards, controlling financial channels, and gaining support, rather than merely increasing production [7].

Group 1 - The trade volume between China and Europe is nearly 800 billion euros annually, covering a wide range of sectors from consumer goods to industrial equipment [5] - Major German automotive companies generate over 30% of their global revenue from sales in China, indicating a significant dependency on the Chinese market [5] - If Europe follows the U.S. in imposing new sanctions on China, it could lead to a 1.2% decline in GDP for Europe next year, exacerbating the economic recovery from the energy crisis [5] Group 2 - The EU is experiencing severe internal divisions regarding its economic strategy towards China, as evidenced by differing stances on tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [5] - Countries like France, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Ireland supported tariffs, while Germany and Hungary opposed them, highlighting varying levels of economic dependence on China [5] - The geopolitical tension and potential trade friction initiated by Trump's commands could lead to a fragmented global supply chain, impacting technological advancements in sectors like renewable energy and artificial intelligence [9] Group 3 - China's Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into EU-origin pork and related products, implementing temporary anti-dumping measures with deposit rates ranging from 15.6% to 62.4% starting September 10 [9] - The EU is at a critical juncture, needing to decide whether to continue relying on external powers or to pursue strategic autonomy in its foreign, security, and economic policies [11] - The decisions made by the EU will not only affect its own prosperity and stability but will also significantly shape the future global landscape [11]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen defended the decision to impose tariffs on India while not sanctioning China, highlighting India's significant increase in oil imports from Russia, which rose from less than 1% before 2022 to 42% [2] - Bessen pointed out that India has profited $16 billion from reselling Russian oil, labeling it as "unacceptable opportunistic arbitrage" [2] - In 2024, India imported $53 billion worth of oil and crude from Russia, while China's imports were higher at $62.6 billion, but this aligns with China's larger economic scale [2] Group 2 - China is currently the largest buyer of Russian crude oil, importing 57.71 million tons valued at $29.48 billion from January to July 2024, which constitutes only 13.5% of China's total imports [2] - The trade volume between the U.S. and China far exceeds that of the U.S. and India, with U.S.-India trade estimated at $128.8 billion in 2024 compared to several hundred billion for U.S.-China trade, leading to a cautious approach from the U.S. regarding sanctions on China [4] - India's government temporarily exempted cotton import tariffs to support its textile industry against U.S. tariffs, while Chinese refineries increased their Russian oil purchases, with Urals crude imports nearly doubling to 75,000 barrels per day in August [4] Group 3 - Bessen's remarks indicate that in the balance of geopolitical economics, power remains the most significant leverage, suggesting that China's strength influenced the U.S. decision-making process [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the shift in global trade dynamics, with China becoming the largest bilateral trading partner for almost all countries, surpassing the US [3][5][17] - The US's unilateral tariff policies, particularly under the Trump administration, have led to significant trade disruptions, with tariffs as high as 35% imposed on allies, while China has opened its market to 53 African countries with zero tariffs [5][13][19] - The imposition of tariffs has resulted in a decline in exports from US allies, such as Japan and South Korea, with Japan's exports to the US dropping by 11.4% and South Korea's by 8.1% [9][11][17] Group 2 - China's strategic response to US tariffs includes implementing zero tariffs for African nations, significantly boosting imports of African goods, such as coffee, which saw a 129.5% increase in the first half of the year [13][15][21] - The US's trade policies have adversely affected American companies, with Tesla facing increased costs due to tariffs on Chinese auto parts, leading to price hikes and job cuts [19][25] - European nations are reevaluating their security frameworks and trade relationships with the US, as seen in the coordination of nuclear arsenals between the UK and France, indicating a shift towards independent security strategies [11][25]