中信证券：美联储7月降息的可能性小、年内最多降息两次 7月15日，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，为今年2月以来的最高水平。环比方 面，CPI上涨0.3%，符合预期。此外，美国6月核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，环比涨0.2%，连续第五个月低于 市场预期。 方正证券指出，6月CPI数据略有升温但总体并未太超市场预期，关税影响仍较为有限，很大程度源于 库存托底，但第三季度关税冲击或持续体现，滞胀压力或加大，其中经济下行压力大于通胀上行风险： 从6月份的非农和通胀数据看，美国经济尚未见到失速风险，通胀压力也相对可控，暂未出现市场预期 的滞胀风险。预计7月美联储将维持观望，9月或开启降息。 华泰证券：维持美联储9月和12月两次降息的判断 华泰证券表示，往前看，关税传导或进一步推高核心商品通胀，但考虑到就业市场后续或有所放缓，维 持美联储9月和12月两次降息的判断。6月CPI数据显示进口依赖度高的商品通胀已经有所回升，证伪了 海外出口商降价，关税不传导的说法。考虑到5月美国加权进口关税税率仅为8.7%，且部分企业通过消 耗库存推迟了价格的传导，往前看，预计关税对通胀的传导将进一步显现，短期或推高美 ...

周度报告-黄金 中东军事冲突升级，黄金价格走强 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 15 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 3.7%至 3432 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.4%，通胀预 期 2.29%，实际利率降至 2.11%，美元指数跌 1.01%至 98.2，标普 500 指数跌 0.39%，离岸人民币小幅升值，沪金溢价收窄。 贵 金 属 金价先抑后扬，突破 3400 美元关口，中美高层伦敦谈判，双方达 成贸易框架，并将汇报给领导人等待进展，贸易问题短期没有继 续升级。但随后中东地区地缘政治局势升温，以色列袭击伊朗引 发避险情绪增加，原油价格大涨，金价突破上行，短期市场交易 重点转为以色列和伊朗局势升级，对金价构成利多。且原油价格 大涨也在未来增加了美国的通胀压力，5 月美国 CPI 同比从 2.3% 回升至 2.4%，低于预期的 2.5%，环比增速仅 0.1%，核心 CPI 维 持在 2.8%，环比增速 0.1%，均低于预期，此前能源价格走弱导致 美国通胀下行，目前原油价格已经收复失地，且关税的影响也存 在滞后性，后续美国 ...

Key Points - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound last week, with London spot gold closing at $3,358 per ounce, a 4.9% increase, and domestic AU9999 gold at 776 yuan per gram, up 4.0% week-on-week [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion due to fluctuating US-EU tariff negotiations and geopolitical risks, allowing gold to regain the $3,300 level [1] - The recent tariff easing has led to a correction in the previously overheated gold market, with gold experiencing a maximum pullback of 8-10% from its peak of $3,500 [1] Group 1 - The easing of tariff tensions has been largely priced into gold, suggesting that the market has adjusted to the recent developments [1] - The ongoing inflationary pressures in the US economy, exacerbated by previous tariff disputes, may continue to challenge economic stability despite tariff reductions [2] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, despite delays, are expected to benefit gold as the market expects three rate cuts within the year [2] Group 2 - The weakening of US dollar credibility due to rising debt levels and high interest costs on government debt is driving central banks to increase gold purchases [2] - Global demand for gold ETFs has surged, with Q1 2025 demand nearly matching the record $111 billion set in Q4 2024, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase [2] - The demand for gold bars and coins remains robust, reaching 325 tons, which is 15% higher than the five-year quarterly average, with China being a key growth driver in this segment [2] Group 3 - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs in the upcoming week include US Q1 GDP and April PCE data, as well as any changes in tariff policies [3]

文/美国桥水投资公司创始人、首席投资官 瑞·达利欧 特朗普推出的"对等"关税， 在美国将引发显著的滞胀压力，而在被征税的国家则 导致通缩或衰退。 各国将动用政策工具（主要是金融与财政政策）实施重大调 整以抵消关税导致的负面影响。 中美可能达成某种协议例如通过汇率来降低贸 易冲突烈度。若此情景成真，中国将进而采取更为宽松的金融和/或财政政策。 关于平衡之道，建议投资者的投资组合应实现跨资产类别与地域的多元非相关 配置，并依据不同通胀与增长环境下资产的差异化表现进行动态调整。 关于"对等"关税以及几点核心事实 延续我本周早些时候发布的观点，结合昨日公布的关税政策，在我看来，这些政策的第一层面的后果将 是：在美国引发显著的滞胀压力，而在被征税的国家则导致通缩或衰退。 事关第二层面的后果：我们将看到 各国的应对措施——各国将动用政策工具（主要是金融与财政政 策）实施重大调整以抵消关税导致的负面影响。 第二层面的后果也包括美国会通过谈判来调整最终政 策。 来源 | 新经济学家智库 编辑丨王茅 责编丨兰银帆 第一，生产、贸易与资本失衡（尤其是债务问题）必须通过某种方式化解，因其在金融、经济与地缘政 治层面已危险地不可持续 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - range - bound; Medium - term - bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - short - term bonds narrow - range bound, long - term bonds poised for rebound; Medium - term - bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Copper**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 79000 - 81000; Medium - term - range between 66000 - 90000 [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level operation in the range of 9700 - 9900; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 9600 - 11000 [8] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 43000 - 44000; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 43000 - 47000 [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level oscillation in the range of 73500 - 74500; Medium - term - fluctuate around production cost in the range of 65000 - 85000 [12] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflow. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy expansion and high inflation in the US add uncertainties. The equity market will return to fundamentals, with short - term focus on positive performance expectations and medium - term continuation of domestic technology innovation theme [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Central bank's net capital withdrawal, policy focus on long - term bond yields, and weak economic fundamentals support long - term bond prices [2][3]. - **Copper**: Global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness, US tariff - induced demand front - loading, and reduced scrap copper exports boost copper prices, but high prices may suppress demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand lead to low - level operation [8][9]. - **Polysilicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand result in low - level operation [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: High production capacity, high inventory, and low - level spot prices are negative for lithium carbonate prices [13]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures**: - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio, hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Increase long positions in T2506 and TL2506 on dips [2] Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper**: - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish - biased trading approach; copper - using enterprises can buy for hedging on dips [4] - **Supply**: Codelco expects 2025 production to reach 137 - 140 million tons. Many companies have production changes in 2024 and plans for 2025 [5] - **Demand**: Q1 2025 domestic power grid data is strong, but some demand indicators show fluctuations [6][7] - **Inventory**: LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories have decreased [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2505 - C - 12000 and hold [8] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 16.04% year - on - year [8] - **Demand**: February 2025 polysilicon production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [9] - **Inventory**: As of March 21, 2025, social inventory is high [9] - **Polysilicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2505 - C - 47000 and hold [10] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [10] - **Demand**: February 2025 silicon wafer production decreased by 15.94% year - on - year [11] - **Inventory**: As of March 23, 2025, social inventory is high [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2505 - C - 90000 and hold [13] - **Supply**: February 2025 production capacity reached a 4 - year high, and production increased year - on - year [13] - **Inventory**: As of February 28, 2025, total inventory is at a high level [13]