兴业期货表示，黄金方面，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克突然宣布将于明年2预定底退休，其降息主 张偏中性。美联储换届在即，白宫施加影响的概率正在上升。黄金金融属性与货币属性强化的中长期逻 辑未变，维持黄金多头思路。策略上，沪金02合约前多继续持有，新单仍可逢回调加仓。白银方面，中 美两国将白银列入战略金属，储备需求增加。国内上海黄金交易所和上期所白银库存降至历史低位。白 银商品属性得到强化。此外，美联储与白宫关于降息的博弈继续，白银金融、货币属性强化的中长期逻 辑也未发生变化。维持白银多头思路不变。 分析指出，矿业板块的持续走强主要受益于两大核心因素。供给端，全球主要有色金属品种面临矿山品 位下降、资本开支不足等长期约束，而地缘政治因素进一步加剧了供应不确定性。需求端，新能源产业 快速发展带动锂、钴等战略金属需求增长，同时制造业复苏推动小金属需求回升。政策面上，国家对战 略性矿产资源的重视程度不断提升，为行业发展创造了有利环境。 11月13日，有色矿业板块盘初放量冲高。截至9时39分，表征板块的矿业ETF(159690)放量涨2.17%，今 年以来累计涨85.01%；成分股兴业银锡、白银有色领涨。 矿业ETF(1 ...

Group 1 - The resource sector is showing strong performance, with the mining ETF (159690) rising by 2.27% during trading, led by companies such as Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and Shengxin Lithium Energy [1] - The current strength of the sector is supported by solid supply and demand fundamentals, with supply constraints due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, alongside geopolitical factors increasing supply uncertainty [3] - The rapid development of the new energy industry is driving demand for strategic metals like lithium and cobalt, while a manufacturing recovery is boosting demand for minor metals [3] Group 2 - Multiple institutions are optimistic about the resource sector, with Citic Securities recommending an increase in positions in cyclical industries, citing a favorable risk-reward ratio [4] - According to招商证券, 2026 will see a cyclical resonance between China and the US, making non-ferrous metals a key focus for investment [4] - The mining ETF (159690) is highlighted as an effective investment tool, covering various strategic resources and demonstrating significant price elasticity during rises in non-ferrous metal prices, often outperforming the underlying commodities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal mining sector continues to show strong performance, with significant gains in lithium-related stocks driven by positive industry fundamentals and robust earnings support [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 30, the mining ETF (159690) surged over 2%, with a year-to-date increase of 88.93% [1]. - The ETF recorded a half-day trading volume of 9.3016 million yuan, indicating active trading [1]. Group 2: Lithium Sector Highlights - Lithium-related stocks are leading the gains, with companies like Yongxing Materials reaching a 60-day high, and Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, and Shengxin Lithium Energy also showing significant increases [3]. - Ganfeng Lithium reported a 364% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, reaching 557 million yuan [3]. - Tianqi Lithium successfully turned a profit in the first half of the year, while Yongxing Materials maintained stable profitability due to its cost advantages [3]. Group 3: Price and Supply Dynamics - There are signs of a rebound in lithium prices, with the carbon lithium futures price rising by 4.17% to 79,940 yuan/ton on October 23 [3]. - The lithium industry is transitioning from an expansion phase to a stage where capacity is gradually being cleared, with a shift in downstream purchasing sentiment from "de-stocking" to "safety stock replenishment" [3]. - Factors such as growing energy storage demand and seasonal supply disruptions are providing short-term support for lithium prices [3].

Group 1 - The expectation for interest rate cuts has increased due to weaker labor market data and moderate inflation, with market pricing indicating a potential 75 basis points cut by the end of the year [3] - The mining ETF (159690) experienced a decline of 1.87%, while component stocks such as Xingye Silver, Shandong Gold International, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Hunan Gold saw significant gains [1] - The metal sector is anticipated to benefit from increased liquidity, a weaker dollar, and improved economic expectations, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals [3] Group 2 - In August, the U.S. PPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, both below expectations, while the CPI matched expectations at 2.9% year-on-year [3] - The copper market is facing tight supply, with stable demand from the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors, although attention should be paid to inventory levels and demand realization [3] - The rare earth supply remains tight in the short term, with limited increases in scrap recycling, but strong demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" season is expected to support prices [3]