相关研究 证券分析师 2025 年 12 月 01 日 扬帆出海，2026 关注哪些方向？ 2026 年出海展望 陆灏川 A0230520080001 luhc@swsresearch.com 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 周文远 ...

Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 78.2 billion CNY, a significant increase of 12% year-on-year [2] - The net profit for the same period was approximately 6 billion CNY, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 5.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 210% [2] - International revenue amounted to 37.6 billion CNY, up 17% year-on-year, while domestic revenue reached 40.6 billion CNY, growing by 7% [2] Market Outlook - The company expects industry exports to maintain over 10% growth in the second half of the year, driven by global expansion, technological innovation, and emerging market development [3] - Domestic sales are anticipated to recover due to policy benefits, renewal cycles, and the integration of new energy and intelligent technologies [3] - The overall target for 2025 is to achieve over 10% growth in operating revenue [3] Profitability and Cost Management - The company is implementing measures to stabilize prices and reduce costs across procurement, research and development, and production [3] - Future projections indicate that the company's gross profit margin will continue to grow annually [3] Investor Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, committing to a cash dividend totaling no less than 40% of the distributable profits for each year from 2025 to 2027 [3] - The controlling shareholder has pledged to implement annual share buybacks, reflecting confidence in the company's future [3] International Expansion - The company has a comprehensive global marketing network covering over 190 countries and regions, with strong international expansion capabilities [4] - Key export regions include Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Africa, South America, Europe, North America, and the Middle East [4] - The company anticipates continued growth in overseas markets, supported by the increasing demand for domestic brands and improved product quality [4] Mining Machinery Development - The company aims to enhance its mining machinery segment, targeting over 40 billion CNY by 2030, driven by stable growth in global mineral resource development and ongoing equipment upgrades [5] - The integration of various mining products is expected to provide comprehensive solutions for global mining customers [5]

Core Viewpoint - XuGong Machinery reported a significant increase in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a rise in overseas sales and effective risk management strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, XuGong Machinery achieved operating revenue of 78.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.61% [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.977 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 11.67% compared to the previous year [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 5.692 billion yuan, showing a substantial increase of 210.47% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company recorded operating revenue of 23.349 billion yuan, up 20.99% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.619 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.21% [1]. Business Strategy and Market Position - XuGong Machinery is focusing on developing a product lineup led by excavators, cranes, and mining machinery, aligning with industry recovery and its growth plans [2]. - The mining machinery sector is identified as a new emerging industry, with the company increasing its overseas project development in response to domestic market challenges [2]. - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Xugong Nanjing Automotive, which will enhance its capabilities in the mining vehicle sector, particularly in wide-body trucks [2]. - XuGong Machinery aims to achieve over 40 billion yuan in revenue from its mining machinery segment by 2030, with the segment currently contributing 8.64% to total revenue [2]. Industry Outlook - The global demand for mineral resources is expected to grow, driven by the increasing need for new energy minerals [3]. - There is a continuous demand for upgrading mining equipment, indicating a peak period for mining machinery updates [3]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of over 10% year-on-year for 2025, supported by global expansion, technological innovation, and emerging market development [3]. - The industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10% in exports in the second half of the year, with domestic sales also projected to recover [3].

Summary of XCMG Machinery Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: XCMG Machinery - **Industry**: Construction Machinery Key Points Industry and Market Performance - XCMG Machinery benefited from domestic sales growth in earthmoving equipment and an upturn in some non-earthmoving crane businesses, achieving positive growth for the first time in three years in the first half of 2025, with excavator sales turning positive indicating the start of a domestic demand renewal cycle [2][5][13] - Major infrastructure projects such as the Yajiang Hydropower Station and the reconstruction of 300,000 kilometers of roads provided strong support for domestic demand, with expectations for continued positive sales throughout the year [5][13] - The overseas market saw a revenue growth rate of 16.6%, with clear signs of recovery in the European and American markets, as evidenced by Caterpillar's positive sales and inventory replenishment [2][6] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, XCMG's domestic revenue achieved positive growth for the first time in three years, driven by a sustained increase in earthmoving machinery sales and improvements in non-earthmoving machinery sales [2][13] - The company's overall revenue growth rate was approximately 10%, with profit growth nearing 18%, indicating strong resilience in overseas business despite high baseline comparisons [10][16] Mining Machinery Segment - The mining machinery segment is a key area for XCMG, with exports maintaining a growth rate of about 6% from January to July 2025, despite challenges in the Russian market [7][8] - XCMG's large-scale mining products are comparable to those of Caterpillar and Komatsu, with expectations for over 30% growth in this segment from 2025 to 2027 [8][24] Corporate Reforms and Management Efficiency - XCMG has made significant progress in state-owned enterprise reforms and mixed-ownership reforms, enhancing profitability and management efficiency [3][11] - The company has implemented measures such as market-oriented compensation and executive stock incentives, resulting in a 6 percentage point improvement in overall profitability from 2021 to the first half of 2025 [3][12] Future Outlook - The outlook for XCMG's engineering machinery segment is optimistic, with excavator domestic sales expected to maintain steady growth, projecting an annual demand of over 200,000 units by 2027-2028 [4][14] - The company is expected to achieve net profit margins of 7.9% to 9.8% from 2025 to 2027, driven by improved risk exposure and net profit rate [9][27] International Market Dynamics - The North American market shows signs of recovery, with Caterpillar's inventory and retail data indicating a bottoming out, and expectations for demand to gradually release post-2024 elections [19] - The European market has also entered an upward phase, with positive growth in machinery exports observed since June 2025 [20][21] - Southeast Asia and other traditional markets are expected to experience growth, supported by infrastructure projects and high demand for construction machinery [22] Technological Advancements - XCMG is enhancing its market share through core technology benchmarking and product improvements, particularly in the mining machinery sector, where it is gradually entering the core supplier list of foreign companies [24][25] Risk Management and Profitability - XCMG has successfully reduced risk exposure and improved asset quality, with a significant decrease in off-balance-sheet guarantees [9][28] - The company anticipates a decrease in depreciation and amortization ratios, which will further enhance profit margins [28] Conclusion - XCMG is positioned for strong growth in both domestic and international markets, with a focus on innovation, efficiency, and strategic reforms, making it a favorable investment opportunity in the construction machinery sector [23][29]

Core Viewpoint - XCMG Machinery has engaged in a targeted investor survey with five institutions, discussing key topics such as equity incentives, mining machinery product planning, overseas market expansion, and demand outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Equity Incentive Plan - The equity incentive plan aims to consolidate the achievements of mixed-ownership reform, balancing challenge and feasibility. The performance assessment indicators include ROE and net profit, which are designed to enhance the company's competitiveness and motivate core employees [3]. Group 2: Mining Machinery Product Planning - The company plans to develop a complete solution for open-pit mining machinery, targeting a market goal of over 40 billion by 2030. The integration of wide-body trucks with other products like two-bridge mining trucks and excavators will create a comprehensive offering in the industry [4]. Group 3: Overseas Market Expansion - XCMG's marketing network spans over 190 countries and regions, with a positive outlook for export growth. Factors contributing to this growth include increased demand for domestic brands, improved product quality, enhanced channels and services, and the acceleration of global expansion by domestic enterprises [5]. Group 4: Domestic and International Demand Outlook - Domestic demand is expected to recover due to increased infrastructure investment and optimized real estate policies, while international demand remains positive [6].

Group 1: Equity Incentive Plan - The equity incentive plan is designed to align with the company's "two-step" development blueprint, ensuring shared responsibility and outcomes among stakeholders [2] - Key performance indicators for the incentive plan include ROE, net profit, and net cash flow from operating activities, aimed at enhancing competitiveness and motivating core employees [3] Group 2: Mining Machinery Product Structure - The integration of wide-body trucks into XCMG's product line aims to create a comprehensive solution for open-pit mining machinery, enhancing competitiveness [3] - XCMG's mining machinery sector is positioned as a leading player domestically and among the top five globally, with a target of exceeding 40 billion by 2030 [4] Group 3: International Market Expansion - XCMG has a global marketing network covering over 190 countries, facilitating comprehensive product marketing and service solutions [4] - The company anticipates continued growth in export revenue, driven by increasing demand for domestic brands in overseas markets [5] Group 4: Domestic and International Demand Outlook - The industry is expected to maintain over 10% growth in exports in the second half of the year, supported by policy benefits and technological advancements [6] - Domestic sales are projected to recover due to overlapping factors such as policy incentives and the renewal cycle [6]

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 54.8 billion CNY, with a net profit of 4.417 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.39% [2] - The attributable net profit was 4.36 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [2] - The non-recurring attributable net profit reached 4.467 billion CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 35.57% [2] - Operating cash flow was 3.73 billion CNY, up 108% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 22%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points [2] Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is entering a deep transformation period, with new policies and projects expected to accelerate recovery [2] - The company anticipates a sustained growth of over 10% in exports for the second half of the year, driven by policy benefits and market recovery [3] - The demand for mining machinery is expected to grow due to stable increases in global mineral resource development and ongoing equipment upgrades [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on stabilizing prices and reducing costs through various measures, including procurement and production cost reductions [3] - A comprehensive product series for open-pit mining machinery is being developed, positioning the company as a leading competitor globally [3] - The company has established a complete industrial chain for new energy products, achieving an 18% penetration rate in the new energy sector [5] Market Expansion - The company has a global marketing network covering over 190 countries, with expectations for continued growth in overseas markets [4] - The export revenue is projected to maintain a positive growth trend, supported by improved product quality and competitive pricing [5] - The company has maintained a leading position in various machinery categories, including cranes and concrete machinery, with significant market shares [5] Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes investor returns, with a commitment to distribute at least 40% of the annual distributable profits as cash dividends over the next three years (2025-2027) [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 10.56 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 8.90 CNY as of April 18, 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The company is planning to acquire a 51% stake in Xuzhou Xugong Heavy Vehicle Co., Ltd. for 821 million CNY and to acquire and increase capital in Xuzhou Xugong Mining Machinery Co., Ltd. for a total of 9.07 billion CNY and 686 million CNY respectively, aiming to enhance its mining machinery business [1][2]. - The acquisition of heavy vehicles is expected to strengthen the company's competitive advantage in the mining machinery sector, contributing to the establishment of a complete product line and supporting the company's goal of becoming a top player in the global open-pit mining equipment industry [2][3]. - The financial performance of the heavy vehicle segment is projected to be stable, with expected revenues of 2.309 billion CNY in 2022, 2.616 billion CNY in 2023, and 2.288 billion CNY in 2024, alongside net profits of 113 million CNY, 82 million CNY, and 129 million CNY respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Plans - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Xuzhou Heavy Vehicles for 821 million CNY and to directly hold 100% of Xugong Mining Machinery after a 9.07 billion CNY acquisition and a 686 million CNY capital increase [1][2]. Business Expansion - The acquisition will enhance the company's mining machinery capabilities, focusing on the production of non-road wide-body dump trucks and other vehicles, which are essential for open-pit mining operations [2]. - The company aims to create a comprehensive series of mining machinery products, establishing a new growth driver and targeting a strategic goal of reaching a 10 billion CNY industry scale [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 94.08 billion CNY, 101.69 billion CNY, and 113.04 billion CNY, with net profits expected to be 6.01 billion CNY, 7.76 billion CNY, and 9.69 billion CNY respectively [10][12]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position, benefiting from both domestic and international demand for mining machinery [9][10].