证券研究报告 工程机械 行业深度报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 02 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 工程机械行业深度报告 投资评级： 看好（首次） ——七十年艰苦奋斗路，两周期寰宇立潮头 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 图表目录 工程机械的行业逻辑是怎样的？工程机械是国民经济建设的重要支柱产业，2024 年 全球工程机械行业规模达 2135 亿美元，其中中国市场规模为 234 亿美元，占比 11%。 挖掘机械、装载机、起重机械产品价值量分列前三，占行业整体超 60%份额。上游 成本中原材料占比最高，液压系统是价值核心。行业根本需求逻辑或来自国内下游 新增 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for XCMG Machinery (徐工机械) as a first coverage [1]. Core Views - XCMG Machinery is recognized as a leading player in the Chinese construction machinery industry, leveraging mixed ownership reform, globalization, and diversification to drive performance growth [7][13]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a local state-owned enterprise to a globally competitive modern listed company, maintaining a leading position in traditional sectors while expanding into emerging strategic areas such as aerial work machinery and mining machinery [7][13]. - The report highlights the expected recovery in both domestic and international markets, with a focus on the resurgence of overseas industry demand [7][43]. - Mining machinery is identified as a second growth curve for the company, with advancements in electrification and globalization creating competitive advantages [7][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - XCMG Machinery has evolved into a global leader in the construction machinery sector, with a comprehensive product range including cranes, earth-moving machinery, and concrete machinery [13][15]. - The company has a clear ownership structure that combines state control with market-driven mechanisms, enhancing operational vitality [29]. 2. Market Dynamics - The construction machinery industry is entering a new cycle, with exports becoming a core growth driver, expected to account for 50% of total sales by 2025 [43][47]. - Domestic excavator demand is projected to grow significantly, with an expected average annual increase of over 20% from 2025 to 2028 [7][50]. 3. Financial Performance - The report forecasts XCMG's total revenue to reach 134.84 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.64% from 2025 to 2027 [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 70 billion yuan in 2025 to 119 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting strong earnings potential [1]. 4. Competitive Advantages - XCMG's mining machinery segment is positioned as a new growth point, with a focus on high-margin aftermarket services and a complete solution approach [7][43]. - The company is advancing in electrification, achieving a closed-loop supply chain for battery systems, which enhances its market penetration in new energy products [7][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Heavy Industry [1] Core Views - SANY Heavy Industry is positioned as a global leader in the construction machinery sector, benefiting from both cyclical recovery and systemic advantages [1] - The company is expected to fully benefit from the current industry recovery cycle, with projected net profits of 85 billion, 111 billion, and 127 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 25, 19, and 17 [1] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic and International Resonance - The construction machinery industry is entering a new cycle, with exports becoming a core driver of growth, expected to account for 50% of total sales by 2025 [13][14] - Domestic excavator sales are projected to recover moderately, with a peak expected in 2028 at 250,000 units, indicating significant growth potential [17][21] - The overseas market is anticipated to enter a new upward cycle in 2026, aligning with domestic recovery [35] 2. Global Leadership and Multi-Category Development - SANY Heavy Industry has established a diversified product system centered around excavators, maintaining a leading position in key categories [1] - The company benefits from a stable shareholding structure and strong control by the founding team, which enhances operational stability [1] 3. Integrated Product, Channel, and Service Strategy - SANY focuses on high-margin core categories, enhancing product competitiveness through significant R&D investment and technological advancements [1] - The company has developed a robust sales network through a shareholding dealer model, improving market penetration and resilience [1] 4. Valuation Rationality - The report suggests that SANY's valuation is reasonable, with expectations for steady upward movement as overseas expansion continues [1] - The company's operational quality is improving, with significant enhancements in profit margins and cash flow metrics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of over 30% from 2025 to 2028, with peak sales projected to reach 250,000 units by 2028, although actual sales in 2025 may fall short due to funding availability issues [1][2] Domestic Market Summary - In the first ten months of 2025, domestic excavator sales increased by 19.6% year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement compared to 2024, marking a comprehensive recovery in the domestic construction machinery sector [1] - The sales of small excavators are expected to dominate in 2025, driven by ample central special government bonds, while the performance of medium and large excavators is hindered by poor local bond funding [1][2] - The overall trend indicates a mild recovery phase characterized by a lower slope but a longer cycle due to funding disruptions [2] Export Market Summary - Overseas excavator sales have been in decline since peaking in 2021, with a continuous drop expected from 2022 to 2025, primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle [1][2] - A new upward cycle in overseas demand is anticipated to begin in 2026 as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting phase, potentially creating a resonance effect with domestic demand [2] Profitability and Cost Efficiency - The construction machinery sector is experiencing improved profitability due to increased capacity utilization and ongoing cost reduction efforts, with notable increases in net profit margins for major companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG [2] - For instance, in the first three quarters of 2025, Sany Heavy Industry's net profit margin increased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Investment Recommendations - The construction machinery sector is identified as being at the beginning of an upward cycle, with projected profit growth of over 20% in the next 2-3 years, and core stocks are currently valued at only 10-16 times their projected profits for 2026, suggesting a strong investment opportunity [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.207 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.919 billion yuan, up 48.18% year-on-year [2][6]. - The domestic industry is recovering from excavators to non-excavators, with Q3 domestic revenue expected to maintain good growth. The overseas emerging markets continue to show strong demand, and European markets may improve, leading to rapid growth in overseas revenue [2][12]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is 28.01%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points year-on-year, indicating an upward trend in profitability [2][12]. - The successful listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange is expected to enhance the company's global competitiveness, with a positive outlook for market share growth and breakthroughs in high-end markets [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 65.741 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.56%, and a net profit of 7.136 billion yuan, up 46.58% year-on-year [6]. - The Q3 performance specifically showed a revenue of 21.207 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.919 billion yuan [6]. Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic excavator industry saw a year-on-year sales increase of 18% in Q3 2025, driven by equipment upgrades and policy catalysts. Non-excavator equipment also showed significant recovery, with sales of truck cranes, crawler cranes, and truck-mounted cranes increasing by 24.4%, 62.5%, and 20.7% respectively [12]. International Market Analysis - The overall export value of China's construction machinery industry increased by 21.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with emerging markets like Africa and Central Asia showing growth rates of 64% and 60% respectively. The company is expected to maintain good growth in emerging markets while European demand is anticipated to improve due to infrastructure spending [12]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's net profit margin for Q3 2025 is 9.05%, an increase of 2.29 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cash flow for the first three quarters reached 14.5 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow performance [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the domestic construction machinery industry and the anticipated growth in overseas markets. The forecasted net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 8.571 billion yuan and 11.086 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24 times and 18 times [12].