12月30日早间，华为官方公众号发布了轮值董事长孟晚舟的新年致辞。致辞以极具诗意的笔触，温情的回顾了华为在2025年忙碌与奔赴的奋斗历程。在娓 娓道来的叙事中，穿插着关于华为战略布局、技术突破与生态构建的诸多关键信息。 1、2025年，华为助力运营商建设5G-A网络，为6000万用户提供极速网络联接体验。 4、2025年，鲲鹏已发展6800多家合作伙伴、380万开发者。昇腾已发展3000多家合作伙伴、400万开发者。 5、2026年华为将发挥的"大杂烩"优势，助力千行百业智能化转型。 6、持续构建开源开放的鲲鹏昇腾生态，推动集群与超节点技术普惠。 轮值董事长 孟晚舟 时光的潮水正漫过2025的岸线，回望这一年的忙碌与奔赴，那些深浅不一的足迹，正是我们奋力向前的最好见证： 在撒哈拉沙漠南缘，网优工程师穿梭在44℃高温、红土飞扬的街头，厘清网络症结； 在大西洋的七级风浪中，光网专家克服严重晕船，和客户一起定位故障、恢复通信； 在海拔4300米的雪域高原，服务团队缺氧不缺精神，冒着零下15℃的严寒调试光储系统，把绿色电源送入千家万户； 在凌晨4:30的客户机房，抓住业务流量最小的间隙，研发团队奋战30天的技术方案紧 ...

就在刚过去的11 月，鸿蒙智行以 8.18 万辆的纪录登顶新势力榜首，成功点燃市场热情之际，亮眼成绩单背后却藏着"价格屠夫"尚界 H5 的尴尬境地。 这点儿价差，换800V高压平台、双 激光雷达 ，还有大空间。"这样，算下来不如直接上 R7 划算。"李生坦言，原本觉得两款车价差不小，真到终端算完 才发现，"不如多花几万，把体验拉满了"。 华为 体验中心的销售说，这样的场景每天都在发生。11月以来，到店看尚界H5的客户里，超过4成都会对比智界 R7，光我们这个门店一半人最后会选择 后者。"15万 华为 智驾的口号，确实拉来不少人，但只要客户愿意多聊两句，算一算成本和预算，最后再试驾对比一下，很容易倾向R7。" 作为鸿蒙智行旗下首款下探至 15 万元级的规模化产品，尚界无疑替鸿蒙"五界"的矩阵开辟出了一套"技术赋能+成本控制"的全新协作模式。以至于尚界 H5自今年9月上市起便被各方寄予厚望。 明明试图要以击穿智能电动车价格地板的姿态入市，却从诞生至今未能实现规模放量的目标。以至于让一场声势浩大"低价换量"打法，终究与市场预期严 重脱节。 近期就在蜂鸣出行终端走访时发现，即便经历'1月3降、柔性让利'，尚界H5的销 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Doubao mobile assistant by ByteDance represents a significant step towards the realization of system-level AI agents, challenging the dominance of super apps like WeChat and Alipay in the mobile ecosystem [2][14][27] Group 1: Doubao Mobile Assistant Launch - On December 1, ByteDance's Doubao team released a technical preview of the Doubao mobile assistant, which collaborates deeply with phone manufacturers at the operating system level to enable cross-application automation [2] - The initial batch of 30,000 units sold out instantly, but within two days, major super apps like WeChat, Alipay, Taobao, and Meituan blocked the Doubao mobile assistant [3] Group 2: AI Agent Development - The Doubao mobile assistant demonstrates the feasibility of GUI agents, completing a closed-loop attempt for AI phones, but raises questions about its practical utility in real-world scenarios [5] - The evolution of AI agents has transitioned from fixed scripts and rule engines to a stage where GUI intelligent agents can understand and operate across applications, as seen with advancements from companies like Microsoft and Anthropic [6][7] Group 3: System-Level Agent vs. Super Apps - The system-level agent can understand user intent and orchestrate multiple apps, moving the focus from an app-centric model to a user-intent-centric model [8][10] - The core advantages of system-level agents include the ability to organize tasks across multiple apps and theoretical platform neutrality, alleviating long-standing issues like fragmented cross-app processes [11][12] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Conflicts - The emergence of the Doubao mobile assistant has highlighted the conflict between system-level agents and super apps, with super apps responding defensively to protect their user entry points [14][15] - The long-term outcome may not be the elimination of one model over the other, but rather a redefinition of power boundaries and responsibilities between system-level agents and super apps [17] Group 5: Manufacturer Strategies - Different manufacturers are adopting varied strategies regarding AI agents, with Huawei integrating agents into its operating system, Xiaomi focusing on ecosystem integration, and Apple maintaining a single official agent [19][23][24] - The competitive landscape suggests a future where multiple agents coexist in the Android ecosystem, while iOS maintains a clearer structure with one official agent and several plugins [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - Huawei is advancing its internal operations towards a fully integrated HarmonyOS ecosystem, aiming to enhance digitalization and intelligence within the company [1][2]. Group 1: Internal Implementation of HarmonyOS - Huawei has initiated a comprehensive push for HarmonyOS integration, with a decision made by the company's board to prioritize internal applications supporting HarmonyOS [1]. - The company has over 1 million devices, including mobile phones, PCs, and tablets, and more than 50,000 applications, making the transition to a new operating system complex [1]. - The internal implementation of HarmonyOS is seen as more complex than previous ERP system replacements, with a broad impact across the organization [1]. Group 2: Progress and Achievements - As of now, Huawei's mobile and tablet devices have fully transitioned to HarmonyOS, with significant capabilities achieved in document handling, meetings, emails, images, and videos [2]. - The company has developed strategies for internal HarmonyOS implementation, including optimizing applications and leveraging cloud-edge collaboration to reduce complexity [4]. Group 3: New Product Launches - Huawei introduced the new commercial computer, the Huawei Qingyun HM740, designed for government and enterprise markets, featuring a 2.8K OLED screen and a 21-hour battery life [5]. - The HarmonyOS Professional Edition has been released, providing enhanced IT management and security solutions for enterprises [5]. Group 4: Market Position and Competition - The launch of HarmonyOS-based products raises questions about Huawei's entry into the domestic "Xinchuang" market, where it previously used other operating systems [7]. - If HarmonyOS enters the Xinchuang market, it will compete with existing domestic operating systems like Tongxin and Kirin, potentially disrupting the current market landscape [9]. Group 5: Ecosystem Development - The success of HarmonyOS in broader markets hinges on building a robust ecosystem, with partnerships established with various companies to support HarmonyOS applications [11]. - As of December, over 1,500 devices, including keyboards and mice, have been adapted to support HarmonyOS, indicating a growing ecosystem [11].

Core Viewpoint - Huawei is set to launch the new dual-foldable flagship Mate X7, featuring the new Kirin 9030 chip, marking a significant advancement in the high-end smartphone market and indicating a potential reshaping of market dynamics [1][12]. Group 1: Product and Technology Advancements - The Mate X7 represents not just an iteration of the X series but a technological declaration, showcasing breakthroughs in screen and system experience [1]. - The Kirin 9030 chip signifies Huawei's transition from "technical experimentation" to "mass production practicality," enhancing the user experience in foldable devices [3]. - The self-developed Kirin chip allows for tailored performance and power management, addressing user pain points related to high performance and battery life [6]. Group 2: Ecosystem and User Experience - The integration of the Kirin 9030 chip with HarmonyOS ensures a seamless ecosystem experience, enhancing connectivity and interaction across Huawei devices [6]. - As of September 2025, the number of native HarmonyOS applications is expected to exceed 20,000, with major apps like WeChat and Douyin optimizing for foldable screens [7]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Strategic Positioning - The self-developed chip provides Huawei with supply chain security, allowing for greater control over technology iteration and production [9]. - The launch of the Kirin 9030 chip is anticipated to stimulate advancements in domestic supply chains, benefiting upstream suppliers [9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The introduction of the Mate X7 is expected to shift the foldable smartphone market from superficial competition based on specifications to a focus on core technological capabilities [11]. - Huawei is redefining the standards for high-end foldable devices, emphasizing chip autonomy, ecosystem synergy, and unique user experiences [11][12]. - The strategic significance of the Mate X7 extends beyond a single device, symbolizing Huawei's return to chip autonomy and a milestone in the evolution of foldable technology [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Seres, is accelerating its Hong Kong listing process and is on the verge of becoming the first "A+H" listed new energy vehicle company, following the successful IPO of Chery Automobile in September 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Position - The AITO brand, particularly the Wenjie series, has become the main revenue driver for Seres, with sales projected to grow from 78,000 units in 2022 to 389,000 units by 2024 [5][6]. - In 2022, Wenjie accounted for 60% of Seres' revenue, and by 2024, this is expected to exceed 90%, indicating a heavy reliance on this single brand [6][8]. - Seres' market capitalization in A-shares exceeds 250 billion RMB, and if the Hong Kong listing is successful, it may surpass Chery's market cap of 176.2 billion HKD, making it the largest automotive IPO in Hong Kong for the year [2]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Risks - Seres has a deep partnership with Huawei, which has significantly contributed to its transformation and product development since 2019 [13][14]. - In 2024, Seres is expected to pay 42 billion RMB to Huawei, which will account for approximately 30% of its total procurement, highlighting a growing dependency on this partnership [16][15]. - The company faces risks associated with high dependency on the Wenjie brand and its relationship with Huawei, as any disruption could adversely affect its business and financial performance [14][17]. Group 3: Expansion and Diversification - Seres is diversifying its operations by acquiring Dragon Energy for 8.164 billion RMB, which will enhance its production capabilities and reduce rental costs for its digital factory [20]. - The company is also expanding its charging network, with over 12,000 charging stations established nationwide, contributing to a second growth curve [20]. - A partnership with ByteDance's Volcano Engine aims to integrate artificial intelligence into its operations, enhancing its technological edge in the automotive sector [21]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Perception - Analysts project a 31x PE ratio for Seres by 2025, significantly higher than the traditional automotive parts sector's 15x PE, reflecting its potential for higher valuation due to its innovative approach [22]. - The company's ability to maintain stable sales of the Wenjie series while exploring new business avenues will be crucial for its valuation transition [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic IT services sector and a deep partner of Huawei, with over 40% of its revenue coming from Huawei [4][6] - The cloud intelligence business is experiencing significant growth, and the initial completion of the HarmonyOS ecosystem is expected to benefit the company as its collaboration with Huawei Cloud deepens [4][5] - The report has adjusted the profit forecast for 2025 and introduced forecasts for 2026-2027, estimating net profits of 564 million, 628 million, and 708 million yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [4][7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2000, the company has been a strategic partner of Huawei since 2009 and has evolved into a leading comprehensive software and IT service provider in China [15][16] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 17.17 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, while net profit was 513 million yuan, down 28.1% [7][20] - The gross margin has been under pressure, dropping from 29.20% in 2020 to 22.07% in 2024, but there are efforts to improve margins through high-value projects and AI product deployment [22][27] Business Segments - The core ICT services business has seen a decline in revenue from 133.87 billion yuan in 2022 to 96.36 billion yuan in 2024, while the cloud intelligence business has grown from 2 billion yuan in 2019 to 73.15 billion yuan in 2024 [27][28] - The company aims to transition from a traditional outsourcing model to an AI technology service provider, leveraging its partnership with Huawei [31][54] Strategic Partnerships - The company is a key partner in Huawei's cloud strategy, benefiting from the growth of the HarmonyOS ecosystem and the increasing demand for AI-driven solutions [6][60] - The collaboration with Huawei has allowed the company to expand its customer base and enhance its service offerings, particularly in sectors like energy, finance, and government [41][42] Market Outlook - The IT services market in China is projected to grow steadily, with a total market size expected to reach 525.6 billion USD in 2024, driven by digital transformation across various sectors [32][36] - The cloud computing market in China is anticipated to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2027, with significant contributions from AI and big data applications [61][69]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for hard disk drives (HDD) in the Chinese market is increasing, leading to a 1% rise in bulk trading prices from Q2 to Q3. This price increase is attributed to rising component costs and strong procurement demand from data centers, with expectations for continued price growth in large-capacity HDDs [1][4]. Group 1: HDD Price Trends - HDD prices for 3.5-inch 1TB drives used in desktop computers and surveillance cameras reached approximately $51.0 each in Q3, marking a 1% increase from the previous quarter. Similarly, 2.5-inch 1TB drives for laptops also saw a 1% rise, priced at about $48.4 each. Both products have experienced price increases for two consecutive quarters, maintaining high price levels [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Demand - The surge in demand from China is driven by government policies encouraging the purchase of domestic computers, with specific needs arising from educational computers. There are indications that HDDs are being used in computers equipped with Huawei's HarmonyOS [6]. - A major HDD manufacturer reported receiving orders from Chinese clients that exceeded production capacity before the Golden Week, particularly for 3.5-inch products, indicating a notable shortage [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite expectations that the rise of solid-state drives (SSD) would reduce HDD usage in computers, the current price increase is a result of declining HDD shipments, rising component costs, and unique demand from China. There is uncertainty about whether prices will continue to rise after Q4 [6]. - For nearline data center applications, demand for large-capacity HDDs remains strong. In Q2, global shipments of nearline HDDs increased by 1.86 million units (12.7%) compared to the previous quarter, reaching 16.47 million units [6].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's subsidiary, Zhibo Zhixing, is preparing for an IPO despite significant losses, raising questions about its long-term viability and strategic direction [1][6][9] Group 1: Company Background - Zhibo Zhixing was established in 2015 as a joint venture between Alibaba and SAIC, benefiting from both technological and industrial resources [1] - The company has faced challenges due to its high dependency on a limited number of clients, particularly SAIC, which accounted for 54.7% of its revenue in 2022 [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Over the past three and a half years, Zhibo Zhixing has accumulated losses exceeding 4.1 billion yuan, with annual losses consistently high [6][9] - The company's revenue has remained stagnant around 800 million yuan, while R&D expenses have significantly outpaced revenue, totaling over 3.2 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [7][9] Group 3: Market Position and Competition - Zhibo Zhixing's market share in the central control operating system segment has declined from 1.99% in 2021 to 0.95% in 2024, indicating increasing competition from rivals like Huawei [4][12] - The automotive industry is shifting towards in-house software development, posing a challenge for Zhibo Zhixing to attract new clients beyond its existing major partners [4][5] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is attempting to pivot towards AI with the launch of its new AI brand, "Yuan Shen AI," aiming to enhance its product offerings and market appeal [10][11] - Zhibo Zhixing has secured a significant partnership with BMW, marking a critical step in diversifying its client base and validating its AI technology [11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The transition to AI-driven services presents both opportunities and challenges, as the company seeks to shift from one-time sales to recurring revenue models [10][11] - The need for substantial ongoing investment in R&D raises concerns about the company's cash flow sustainability, especially as it aims to achieve profitability [8][9][12]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of AI commercialization and the ongoing innovation in large models, with significant advancements in model intelligence, efficiency, and multimodal capabilities [3][6] - The AI Agent market is projected to grow substantially, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.8% globally from 2024 to 2030, and a staggering 72.7% CAGR in China from 2023 to 2028 [3][19] Model Sector - Continuous upgrades in large models are observed, with OpenAI's GPT-4o and Google's Gemini 2.5 series showcasing enhanced capabilities in processing and understanding [3][6] - The SuperCLUE benchmark results indicate that leading models are achieving high scores in various categories, reflecting the competitive landscape in AI model development [6] Computing Power Sector - Capital expenditures for AI infrastructure are on the rise, with major companies like Microsoft and Amazon significantly increasing their investments [14] - AI inference demand is expected to surpass training demand, with projections indicating that inference will account for over 70% of total AI computing needs by 2027 [14] Application Sector - Major tech companies are rapidly advancing AI Agent commercialization, with significant investments and product launches aimed at both B2B and B2C markets [19] - The introduction of the MCP protocol by Anthropic is expected to lower development barriers and expand the application of AI Agents [19] Domestic Innovation - The report highlights the push for self-sufficiency in technology, driven by government policies and market dynamics, particularly in the context of the Sino-US tech competition [20][22] - The domestic market for trusted information technology is projected to reach 26,559 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 17% from 2021 to 2026 [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in computing power, AI data centers, and AI applications, including firms like Huafeng Technology, Cambricon, and Kingsoft Office [24]