通信行业点评 姚院士在浦江论坛对量子提出了怎样的期待？ 2025 年 09 月 23 日 ➢ 2025 年 9 月 21 日浦江创新论坛上，姚院士就量子计算+A 开展演讲，认 为两者可"相互赋能"。"将量子与 AI 这两项颠覆性技术结合，或许能推动人类 突破现有知识极限，实现系统能力的跃升。"在姚期智院士看来，二者的融合不是 简单叠加，而是相互赋能的"化学反应"。大会同时宣布成立上海量子人工智能联 合体、上海量子科技装备产业创新联盟，发布上海量子计算十大应用场景，标志 上海量子科技与产业发展迈入崭新发展阶段。 ➢ 我国 AI 量子：基础扎实潜力无限。大会上指出，当前我国在量子纠错、AI 赋能量子等领域紧跟国际前沿，最新研究进展在部分方向上已经具备了"并跑"， 甚至局部"领跑"的可能。中国科学院院士俞大鹏指出，中国在量子计算领域已 取得显著突破。在上海，复旦大学成功研制出中性原子量子计算系统，制定高效 并行量子计算指令集；开发 ai+量子调控方案，实现了大规模原子系统的自动校 准、优化，为量子计算增效提速；自研物镜的性能也已支撑万比特级中性原子量 子计算；近期在量子优化算法上又取得新突破，大幅提升 NP 难问题 ...

Industry Insights - The Shanghai Quantum Artificial Intelligence Consortium and the Shanghai Quantum Technology Equipment Industry Innovation Alliance were established, focusing on interdisciplinary research in quantum artificial intelligence over the next five years [1] - The global quantum computing industry is expected to grow from $5.04 billion in 2024 to $21.998 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 87.64% [1] - Various hardware technology routes for quantum computing are developing concurrently, with superconducting quantum computing being the most favored [2] Company Developments - Geer Software has invested in Shanghai Hongge Post-Quantum Technology Co., which is engaged in research, standard formulation, and product development in the field of post-quantum cryptography, with applications in government, finance, and military sectors [3] - Jida Zhengyuan has made progress in research on post-quantum cryptographic algorithms, achieving an algorithm for post-quantum signatures [4]

Core Viewpoint - The quantum computing industry in China is expected to rapidly expand due to the combined effects of US-China competition, policy emphasis, and equity cooperation, with a significant increase in orders and revenue for core companies indicating a turning point in the sector's prosperity [1] Group 1: Quantum Computing Landscape - Quantum computing is anticipated to break the computational bottleneck, with major companies like Google and IBM investing heavily and planning to increase the number of quantum bits to millions by around 2030 [2] - Superconducting technology is the mainstream route for quantum computers, accounting for 36% of the global market, with key players including IBM, Google, and domestic firms like GuoDun Quantum and Benyuan Quantum [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Growth Projections - The global quantum computing market is projected to grow from $5.04 billion in 2024 to $21.998 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 87.64% [3] - The shift in major shareholders of GuoDun Quantum to China Telecom Quantum Group is expected to accelerate the commercialization of quantum computing in China [3] Group 3: Domestic Development and Policy Impact - The current landscape shows a tripartite competition among the US, China, and Europe, with market shares of 29.7%, 28.8%, and 25.3% respectively, and US restrictions on exporting quantum information technology to China [3] - Domestic quantum computing technology is increasingly aligning with international standards, supported by government policies emphasizing self-sufficiency in quantum technology [3] Group 4: Sector Performance and Investment Focus - The quantum computing sector is showing signs of a turning point, with significant revenue growth reported by key companies such as Liangxi Technology and GuoDun Quantum, with increases of 284% year-on-year [4] - The upstream segment, which includes critical hardware like dilution refrigerators and measurement control systems, constitutes 40% of the total market, indicating a focus for potential investment [4] - Domestic dilution refrigerators are achieving competitive performance levels, providing ultra-low temperature environments essential for quantum chips, while measurement control systems are capable of managing up to 1,000 quantum bits, aligning with international standards [4]

Core Viewpoint - The quantum computing industry is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase from $5.04 billion in 2024 to $21.998 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 87.64% [1][3]. Industry Overview - Quantum computing is poised to break through computational bottlenecks, attracting major companies like Google and IBM, which are investing heavily to enhance quantum bit counts to millions by around 2030 [2]. - The mainstream technology route for quantum computing is superconducting technology, which is favored for its ease of device integration and scalability, currently holding a 36% market share [2]. Market Dynamics - The quantum computing sector is entering a critical application demonstration phase, with leading products achieving hundreds of quantum bits, indicating readiness for specific applications [3]. - The market is currently divided among the US, China, and Europe, with respective market shares of 29.7%, 28.8%, and 25.3% [3]. Supply Chain Insights - The upstream segment of the quantum computing industry, which includes key hardware components, accounts for 40% of the total market size [5]. - Key components such as dilution refrigerators and measurement control systems are critical for quantum computing, with domestic manufacturers making significant strides in performance and capability [5]. Company Performance - Core companies in the quantum computing sector, such as Liangxi Technology and Guoshun Quantum, have reported rapid revenue growth, with increases of 284% and nearing previous year's total revenue, respectively [5]. - The shift in major shareholder of Guoshun Quantum to China Telecom Quantum Group is expected to accelerate the commercialization of quantum computing in China [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The ongoing US-China competition, policy support, and strategic partnerships are expected to drive the growth of China's quantum computing industry, with a focus on upstream core equipment like dilution refrigerators and measurement control systems [6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the quantum computing industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by domestic capabilities and international competition [3]. Core Insights - Quantum computing is positioned to break through computational bottlenecks, with major companies like Google and IBM planning to scale quantum bits to millions by 2030 [5][21]. - The industry is entering a critical application demonstration phase, with a shift in control among leading companies facilitating commercialization [27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upstream core devices, particularly dilution refrigerators and measurement control systems, as key areas for investment [3][39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Quantum Computing, The Future is Coming - Quantum computing is expected to overcome computational limitations, with hardware comprising multiple layers including quantum data and measurement control [11]. - The principle of quantum superposition allows quantum bits to represent multiple states simultaneously, enhancing computational power exponentially [19][20]. Section 2: Quantum Computing as a Battleground Between China and the US - The global quantum computing market is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 87.64% from 2024 to 2030, reaching $21.998 billion [26]. - The US has imposed restrictions on the export of quantum information products to China, making self-sufficiency in quantum technology essential for China [34][36]. Section 3: Industry Sentiment is Turning, Focus on Dilution Refrigerators and Measurement Control Systems - The upstream segment of the quantum computing industry accounts for 40% of the market, with significant growth expected in measurement control systems and dilution refrigerators [42]. - Key companies in the quantum computing sector have shown rapid revenue growth, indicating a turning point in industry sentiment [52]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies like Guandun Quantum and Hexin Instruments are highlighted as key players in the quantum computing landscape, with strategic moves to enhance their market positions [3][39].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the quantum computing industry. Core Insights - The quantum computing industry is rapidly evolving, with significant advancements in technology and increasing market demand driven by artificial intelligence and computational needs. The global quantum computing market is projected to grow from approximately $800 million in 2021 to $5 billion by 2024, representing a substantial increase in market size [22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Quantum Computing Industry - Quantum computing differs significantly from classical computing, utilizing quantum mechanics to solve problems more efficiently. This technology has the potential to revolutionize various fields due to its unique properties such as superposition and entanglement [7][8]. 2. Global Development Status - North America leads the global quantum computing market, followed closely by Europe and China. By 2024, the market shares are expected to be 29.8% for North America, 28.8% for Europe, and 25.2% for China [25]. 3. Market Size and Growth - The global quantum computing market is expected to expand rapidly, with a projected size of $5 billion by 2024, accounting for 63% of the total quantum information industry [22][23]. In China, the quantum computing industry is anticipated to reach 9.04 billion yuan (approximately $1.4 billion) in 2024, reflecting an 82.1% year-on-year growth [51]. 4. Key Enterprises in the Industry - Major companies in the quantum computing sector include IBM, Google, and startups like Quantinuum and PsiQuantum, which are making significant strides in various quantum technologies [32][33]. 5. Industry Policies and Support - Governments worldwide, particularly in the U.S. and China, are increasingly recognizing the strategic importance of quantum computing, leading to substantial investments and supportive policies aimed at fostering innovation and development in this field [28][46]. 6. Investment and Financing Trends - The quantum computing sector has seen a surge in investment, with financing in China reaching 2.93 billion yuan (approximately $450 million) in 2024. The focus is primarily on superconducting quantum computing and ion trap technologies, which are attracting significant capital [56][63].

Core Insights - The dilution refrigerator market is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing demand in quantum computing applications, with a projected global market size of $354 million by 2024 [7][9][11] - The market is primarily concentrated in Europe, North America, and China, with respective market sizes of approximately $147 million, $115 million, and $58 million in 2024, accounting for 41.4%, 32.4%, and 16.3% of the total market [9][11] - Domestic companies in China are rapidly developing dilution refrigerator technology to replace imports, following export restrictions from the U.S. and allies, leading to significant advancements in local manufacturing capabilities [19][21][23] Market Overview - The dilution refrigerator is a low-temperature device that uses a mixture of helium isotopes to cool objects to millikelvin ranges, essential for fields like condensed matter physics and astronomical detection [1][2] - Since the first prototype was built in 1965, the technology has evolved from theoretical research to commercial applications, with a notable shift towards dry dilution refrigerators since the 1990s [5][7] Market Size and Growth - The global dilution refrigerator market is expected to grow to $354 million in 2024, reflecting a robust demand driven by advancements in quantum computing [7][9] - The market for dilution refrigerators used in quantum computing is projected to account for 53.36% of the total market by 2024, with expectations to exceed 90% by 2035 [11] Application Landscape - Currently, dilution refrigerators are primarily utilized in quantum computing, catering to the low-temperature requirements of superconducting, semiconductor, and ion trap quantum computers [11] - The rapid development of quantum computing technology has created a stable demand for dilution refrigerators, with the Chinese quantum computing industry projected to reach 9.04 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 82.1% [17] Drivers of Development in China - National policies are actively promoting the quantum computing industry, with specific initiatives aimed at developing dilution refrigerators as a core component [14][16] - The U.S. export restrictions on dilution refrigerators and related components have accelerated the domestic development of these technologies in China, providing opportunities for local companies to innovate and fill the supply gap [19][21] Competitive Landscape - The domestic market for dilution refrigerators has seen significant advancements, with companies like Liangxi Technology, Hefei Zhiling, and others achieving breakthroughs in low-temperature technology [23][25] - The competitive landscape is characterized by high barriers to entry, with a few key players dominating the market, each holding over 10% market share [23][25] Future Development Directions - The future of dilution refrigerators is expected to focus on enhancing performance, integration with other quantum computing components, and the development of smart control systems for improved efficiency [27][30] - There is also a push towards energy-efficient and environmentally friendly refrigerants to reduce reliance on traditional helium-3, which is subject to high costs and import dependencies [31]

Core Viewpoint - HeXin Instruments reported a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, but managed to reduce net losses through organizational optimization and cost control [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, HeXin Instruments achieved revenue of 0.53 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 48.9%. However, net losses narrowed to 17.46 million, a year-on-year reduction of 20.86% [1][2]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 21.44 million, down 62.7% year-on-year and 33.2% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 10.39 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 47.6% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 47.0% [2]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating a major asset restructuring, planning to acquire 56% of Shanghai Liangxi Technology to expand its industrial chain and enter new fields such as food safety and healthcare [2][4]. - The acquisition of Liangxi Technology, which specializes in quantum computing patents and low-temperature signal measurement devices, is expected to enhance HeXin's capabilities in advanced scientific instruments [4]. Group 3: Diversification Efforts - HeXin Instruments is focusing on environmental monitoring, particularly in PM2.5, VOCs, and ozone monitoring, while also launching new products for water quality monitoring and agricultural testing [5]. - The company aims to expand into the medical health sector with microbiological detection mass spectrometers, addressing clinical diagnostic needs [5]. - The chairman emphasized a three-pronged approach of expanding business, enhancing capabilities, and simplifying management to tackle challenges in a market dominated by international giants [5].

Core Viewpoint - HeXin Instruments reported a significant narrowing of losses in its traditional business while advancing into quantum computing, leading to an "accumulate" rating from Minsheng Securities [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, HeXin Instruments achieved revenue of 53 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 48.9%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 17.65 million yuan, which is a 20.9% improvement compared to the same period last year [2] - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 21.44 million yuan, down 62.7% year-on-year and 33.2% quarter-on-quarter; the net loss attributable to shareholders was 10.39 million yuan, a decrease of 47.6% year-on-year and 47.0% quarter-on-quarter [2] Investment in Quantum Computing - The company plans to acquire a 56% stake in Shanghai Liangxi Technology Co., which specializes in quantum computing patents and low-temperature measurement equipment [3] - Liangxi Technology generated revenue of 70.8 million yuan in the first half of 2025, nearing its total revenue of 74.35 million yuan for 2024, with a gross margin of 62.1%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from 2024 [3] - Research and development expenses for Liangxi Technology in the first half of 2025 were 4.21 million yuan, 10.66 million yuan, and 5.55 million yuan, representing 15.72%, 14.33%, and 7.85% of revenue, respectively [3] - Liangxi Technology achieved a net profit of 28.15 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [3] Industry Trends - Major global players are increasing investments in quantum computing, with Microsoft’s CEO stating that quantum computing will be a significant accelerator in cloud services [4] - NVIDIA's CEO indicated that the quantum computing sector is at a historic turning point, predicting that the next generation of supercomputers will integrate quantum processing units (QPU) with GPUs [4] - Amazon has launched a new 54-qubit superconducting quantum processor on its Amazon Braket platform [4] Future Outlook - Without considering the acquisition, the company is expected to achieve revenues of 210 million yuan, 230 million yuan, and 240 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 37x, 34x, and 32x based on the closing price on May 30, 2025 [5] - The company is anticipated to benefit from strong product capabilities and potential policy support, with its core product, the dilution refrigerator, expected to break the overseas monopoly [5] - The overall competitive advantage and resource reserves of the company are expected to accelerate its development in the quantum computing sector [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's traditional main business has significantly reduced its losses, while it is advancing into the quantum computing sector [1]. - The company plans to acquire a 56% stake in Shanghai Liangxi Technology Co., which specializes in quantum computing patents and products [2]. - Major overseas companies are increasing their investments in quantum computing, indicating a growing trend in the industry [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 210 million, 230 million, and 240 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/S ratios of 37x, 34x, and 32x [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 53 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 48.9%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 17.65 million yuan, which is a 20.9% improvement compared to the same period last year [1]. - For the second quarter of 2025, revenues were 21.44 million yuan, down 62.7% year-on-year and 33.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 10.39 million yuan, a decrease of 47.6% year-on-year and 47.0% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Investment in Quantum Computing - The acquisition of Liangxi Technology is aimed at enhancing the company's capabilities in quantum computing, particularly in providing ultra-low temperature and weak signal measurement equipment [2]. - Liangxi Technology achieved revenues of 70.8 million yuan in the first half of 2025, nearing its total revenue of 74.35 million yuan for 2024, with a gross margin of 62.1% [2]. Industry Trends - Major players like Microsoft and NVIDIA are emphasizing the importance of quantum computing, with predictions of significant advancements in the field [3]. - The report highlights that the quantum computing sector is expected to grow, benefiting companies like the one under review [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 213 million, 228 million, and 244 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a growth rate of 5.1%, 7.3%, and 6.9% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 19 million yuan in 2025 to a loss of 13 million yuan in 2027 [5].