证券研究报告·公司点评报告·食品加工 仙乐健康（300791） 2025 年中报点评：拥抱新消费，经营韧性强 2025 年 08 月 27 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,582 | 4,211 | 4,572 | 5,092 | 5,664 | | 同比（%） | 42.87 | 17.56 | 8.58 | 11.38 | 11.22 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 281.04 | 325.06 | 366.85 | 459.03 | 527.04 | | 同比（%） | 32.39 | 15.66 | 12.86 | 25.13 | 14.82 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.91 | 1.06 | 1.19 | 1.49 | 1.71 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.34 | 24.51 | 21.71 | 17.35 | 15.11 | [Table_ ...

分剂型：25H1 软胶囊实现销售收入9.47 亿元，同比+6.47%，软糖实现销售收入5.17 亿元，同比 +6.35%，片剂实现销售收入1.89 亿元，同比+33.37%，饮品实现销售收入1.11 亿元，同比-20.84%，硬 胶囊实现销售收入1.08 亿元，同比+11.00%，粉剂实现销售收入0.91 亿元，同比-36.02%。 分地区：25H1 中国区实现销售收入8.18 亿元，同比-1.63%，美洲区实现销售收入7.60 亿元，同比 +4.26%，欧洲区实现销售收入3.59 亿元，同比+21.96%，其他地区实现销售收入1.05 亿元，同 比-22.91%。 具体来看：1）中国事业群：坚持大客户发展战略，全面发力新消费增量市场，直播/私域/跨境/跨 界/MT 等新赛道业务占比持续提升，25H1 新消费客户营收同比增速超40%，但受制于传统医药保健品 牌、直销、OTC 等赛道客户业绩下滑的影响，长青市场营收同比回落；2）美洲事业部：全力攻坚软糖 业务规模化，加大软糖业务开拓力度，当前已为25H2 及26 年储备销售商机，通过更加韧性的商业和运 营措施克服关税波动影响，聚焦拉美市场，突破巴西等国新客户；3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company experienced a narrowing decline in revenue in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% [2] - The company is expected to stabilize and improve in the second half of 2025, driven by product launches and optimized marketing strategies [12] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 35.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%, with a net profit of 7.4 billion yuan, down 17.3% [1] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 17.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.8 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 71.4% year-on-year [1][5] - Domestic and international revenue for H1 2025 was 28.4 billion yuan and 6.9 billion yuan, respectively, showing a decline of 28.2% and an increase of 5.3% year-on-year [3] Brand Performance - The main brands,汤臣倍健 and LSG, contributed significantly to revenue, with汤臣倍健 generating 18.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 28.3% year-on-year [4] - LSG brand revenue in H1 2025 was 5.3 billion yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in cross-border e-commerce and local markets [3][5] Channel Analysis - Revenue from offline and online channels in H1 2025 was 18.0 billion yuan and 16.8 billion yuan, respectively, with declines of 31.6% and 13.8% year-on-year [4] - In Q2 2025, offline and online channels generated 8.1 billion yuan and 9.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of 10.7% and 12.1% [11] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 68.6%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 21.6%, up 2.5 percentage points [11] - For Q2 2025, the gross margin was 68.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin rose to 17.1%, up 8.9 percentage points [11] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 62.9 billion yuan, 66.4 billion yuan, and 70.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with expected growth rates of -8.1%, +5.6%, and +5.5% [12] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 8.0 billion yuan, 9.3 billion yuan, and 10.6 billion yuan, with growth rates of +22.0%, +16.5%, and +14.6% [12]

Revenue and Profit - The total operating revenue for the company in the first half of 2025 was 3.532 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.43% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 737 million yuan, down 17.34% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 693 million yuan, a decrease of 16.59% [2] - In Q2, the operating revenue was 1.741 billion yuan, a decline of 11.51% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased to 282 million yuan, up 71.44% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 285 million yuan, an increase of 133.45% [2] Key Financial Indicators - Accounts receivable stood at 504 million yuan, representing 77.24% of the latest annual net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 9.51% [4] - Interest-bearing liabilities surged to 843 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6320.54% [4] - Gross margin was 68.55%, a slight decrease of 0.01% year-on-year, while net margin increased by 13.29% to 21.61% [9] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities was 0.38 yuan per share, an increase of 118.12% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced procurement and period expense payments [6] - The net cash flow from investing activities saw a change of 84.68%, mainly due to decreased expenditures on large time deposits and financial products [7] Business Composition - The revenue breakdown by product includes: Other products at 1.343 billion yuan (38.02% of total revenue, gross margin 61.24%), Capsules at 983 million yuan (27.84%, gross margin 68.33%), Tablets at 720 million yuan (20.38%, gross margin 78.23%), and Powders at 486 million yuan (13.76%, gross margin 74.84%) [10] - Revenue from domestic sales was 2.843 billion yuan, accounting for 80.50% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 69.46%, while overseas sales were 689 million yuan, making up 19.50% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 64.80% [10] Industry Outlook - The dietary supplement industry in China presents significant growth potential, and the company is enhancing its technological competitiveness through a "scientific nutrition" strategy while developing an omnichannel sales system [8] - Despite the decline in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, the company has made positive progress in technological innovation, brand building, and omnichannel business development [8]

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Xianle Health is 23.49 yuan, an increase of 0.34 yuan from the previous trading day, with an opening price of 23.23 yuan, a high of 23.58 yuan, a low of 23.10 yuan, a trading volume of 24,618 hands, and a transaction amount of 0.58 billion yuan [1] - Xianle Health operates in the food and beverage industry, focusing on the research, development, production, and sales of nutritional health foods, with products including gummies, tablets, and powders, serving global nutritional health food brands [1] - Recently, the company participated as a co-organizer in the first Shantou Health Industry Innovation Development Conference and Health Product Expo, showcasing innovative solutions in maternal and child nutrition, women's health, and probiotics, and signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Chinese Institute of Food Science and Technology to establish an innovation fund [1] Group 2 - The innovation fund will focus on supporting research and innovation in areas such as bionic enhancement and dosage form technology, as well as nutrition and health [1] - On August 11, Xianle Health saw a net inflow of 642,800 yuan in main funds, while over the past five trading days, there was a cumulative net outflow of 8.2576 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating report for Xianle Health Technology Co., Ltd. indicates a stable credit rating of AA- with a focus on the company's strong production capabilities and market position in the nutritional health food sector [3][6][11]. Company Overview - Xianle Health specializes in B-end business as a significant contract manufacturer of nutritional health foods, with a diverse product line including soft capsules, gummies, beverages, tablets, powders, and hard capsules [3][17]. - The company has established seven production bases and five R&D centers across China, Europe, and the United States, enhancing its manufacturing and research capabilities [5][17]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 42.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.56%, with a gross profit margin of 31.46% [5][22]. - Key financial metrics include total assets of 56.14 billion yuan and total liabilities of 16.19 billion yuan as of 2024 [3][22]. Market Position and Growth - The global nutritional health food market is projected to grow, with the Chinese market expected to reach 260.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.3% from 2019 to 2024 [11][12]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 60.56% of total revenue by the end of 2024, driven by sales growth in the Americas [22]. Product and R&D Capabilities - The company has over 6,000 mature nutritional health food formulations and has received multiple health food registration certificates, indicating strong product development capabilities [17][16]. - R&D expenses increased by 13.98% in 2024, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation and product development [16]. Debt and Financial Stability - The company's debt structure is considered reasonable, with a strong ability to generate cash flow from operations, and a good EBITDA interest coverage ratio [6][22]. - The company issued 10.25 billion yuan in convertible bonds to fund expansion projects, with a portion of the funds redirected to supplement working capital [8][9]. Industry Environment - The nutritional health food industry is supported by government policies promoting health management and the "Healthy China" initiative, which is expected to drive market growth [12][11]. - New consumption trends, including online and cross-border sales channels, are emerging, with a notable increase in the online penetration rate of nutritional health products [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating challenges in its operational performance and market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 6.838 billion yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year, with a net profit of 653 million yuan, down 63% [1]. - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 1.105 billion yuan, a decline of 32%, with a net loss of 216 million yuan compared to a loss of 155 million yuan in Q4 2023 [1]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.792 billion yuan, down 32%, with a net profit of 455 million yuan, a decrease of 37% [1]. Margin Analysis - Gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 decreased by 2 percentage points and 1 percentage point to 66.69% and 68.66%, respectively, primarily due to changes in product mix and reduced scale effects [1]. - The net profit margin decreased by 9 percentage points and 1 percentage point to 9.47% and 26.04%, respectively, with expectations of gradual improvement in profitability through better cost control [1]. Product Strategy - In 2024, revenue from tablets, powders, and capsules was 1.049 billion yuan, 625 million yuan, and 1.103 billion yuan, reflecting declines of 41%, 42%, and 26%, respectively [2]. - The company is piloting a new low-cost, high-volume model for its calcium product, which has exceeded expectations, with plans to launch new products under this model in Q2 2025 [2]. Channel Strategy - Revenue from online and offline channels in 2024 was 1.222 billion yuan and 3.125 billion yuan, down 28% and 32%, respectively [2]. - The company is enhancing the differentiation between online and offline products, focusing on consumer benefits and increasing the proportion of high-end online offerings [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company is adjusting its task allocation to smooth out quarterly fluctuations and expects gradual release of scale effects [3]. - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.46, 0.52, and 0.59 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 21, and 19 times [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 4.211 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.325 billion yuan, up 15.66% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 0.954 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.069 billion yuan, up 8.90% year-on-year [6] - The company is positioned as a leading CDMO in the health food industry, with a focus on product innovation and technological upgrades, supported by a global supply capability across China, the US, and Europe [9] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's performance in the last year shows a mixed trend, with a 1-month decline of 4.7% and a 12-month decline of 9.5% compared to the CSI 300 index [4] - As of April 25, 2025, the current stock price is 25.41 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 6.029 billion yuan [4] Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue by region was as follows: China 1.661 billion yuan (down 10.28%), Europe 0.604 billion yuan (up 14.25%), Americas 1.666 billion yuan (up 59.56%), and other regions 0.280 billion yuan (up 77.38%) [6] - The Chinese market showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with revenue stabilizing due to the company's efforts in expanding new consumer markets [6] Product Performance - In 2024, revenue by product type was: soft capsules 1.984 billion yuan (up 29.91%), tablets 0.326 billion yuan (down 10.05%), powders 0.232 billion yuan (down 20.90%), gummies 0.995 billion yuan (up 34.54%), beverages 0.248 billion yuan (down 41.22%), hard capsules 0.223 billion yuan (up 46.83%), and other forms 0.177 billion yuan (up 141.32%) [6] - The company has seen significant growth in high-margin products like gummies, which have increased their market share from approximately 5% in 2022 to nearly 10% in 2024 [6] Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 31.46%, improving to 33.09% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.19 percentage points and 2.47 percentage points respectively [6] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 7.72%, slightly decreasing to 7.19% in Q1 2025 [7] Financial Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 4.663 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.400 billion yuan, and EPS of 1.69 yuan [8] - The company expects a revenue growth rate of 11% in 2025, with a net profit growth rate of 23% [8] Competitive Position - The company is enhancing its competitive barriers through multi-dimensional capability improvements, including product innovation, supply chain optimization, and digital transformation [9] - The company’s innovative products contributed over 35% to sales in 2024, with higher gross margins than average [9]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that the Chinese technology industry is injecting stability into global assets, transitioning from "point breakthroughs" to "system evolution" in its innovation system, which is crucial for transforming into an innovation-driven economy [1][18] - The capital market is expected to continuously provide stable liquidity support for the technology industry, with "KOT estimates" likely to inject further stability into the revaluation of China's economic transformation [1][19] Fixed Income - The report analyzes the investment value of technology bonds, noting that despite increased trading sentiment, the market's growth rate is more significant, indicating ample trading space for technology bonds [3] - Technology bonds generally have a credit spread slightly higher than ordinary credit bonds of the same rating, with a notable advantage in the 3-5 year maturity range, suggesting a larger capital gain potential compared to ordinary credit bonds [3] - The valuation yield of technology bonds predominantly falls within the 2%-2.5% range, with longer maturities showing a significant upward trend, making them attractive for investors seeking stable returns [3] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for revaluation in various industries, particularly in high-tech, consumer, and emerging service sectors, suggesting that investors should explore valuation discrepancies in technology bonds from an industry perspective [5] - The computer industry is highlighted as a significant area for growth, driven by policy support and the emergence of a trillion-dollar market, indicating a multi-dimensional value opportunity [6] Environmental Industry - The report discusses the renewable energy subsidy projects released by the State Grid, focusing on the importance of stable operations and self-control in the environmental sector [7] - It suggests that defensive assets driven by domestic demand, such as solid waste and water services, are expected to see significant cash flow improvements and dividend increases [7] Company-Specific Analysis - The report provides a detailed analysis of Zhongwei Co., predicting a net profit of 18.6 billion yuan for 2025, with a target price of 44 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - For Qianhe Flavor Industry, the report adjusts revenue expectations downward due to strategic adjustments but anticipates profit growth driven by cost advantages [9] - China XD Electric is projected to achieve a net profit of 17.0 billion yuan by 2025, with a "buy" rating maintained due to strong performance in its transformer and switch businesses [11]