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高市早苗的闹剧,让日本经济先中了“回旋镖”|京酿馆
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-11-20 08:29
打开百度APP畅享高清图片 ▲日本内阁府公布三季度GDP,按年率计算下降1.8%。图/IC photo 近期高市早苗的一番闹剧式表演,让日本经济挂上了新一层寒霜。 据经济日报报道,11月17日,日本内阁府公布三季度GDP,按年率计算下降1.8%,为六个季度以来首 次萎缩。日本金融市场出现股债汇"三杀",20年期国债收益率创1999年以来最高水平。 11月18日,日本金融市场再现股债汇"三杀"。日经225指数暴跌3.22%,日元对美元汇率当天一度下跌至 1美元兑换155.38日元,创今年1月以来最低水平。30年期国债收益率升至3.28%。 11月19日,东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌,日经股指累计下跌2700多点。 日本金融市场的震荡,是日本国内经济低迷,高市早苗财政刺激和货币宽松计划引发市场抛售美元,美 国金融市场抛售科技股、加密货币和黄金等多重因素叠加的结果。其中,高市早苗的妄语妄行毒化了中 日关系,也是新生的市场重大风险。 11月20日早盘,日本金融市场止跌反弹,但是这并不代表高市早苗给日本经济造成的风险溢出效应会逐 渐消失。 这场作空日元的盛宴已经开了十几年。即使今年1月24日,日本央行将基准利率从 ...
高市早苗的闹剧,让日本经济先中了“回旋镖”
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-11-20 08:17
11月20日早盘,日本金融市场止跌反弹,但是这并不代表高市早苗给日本经济造成的风险溢出效应会逐 渐消失。 在美国金融市场重大调整的时间点,高市早苗轻率挑衅中国这个日本最大贸易伙伴、第一大进口来源 国、第二大出口目的地和第二大债权国,势必让日本付出更大的经济代价。 近期高市早苗的一番闹剧式表演,让日本经济挂上了新一层寒霜。 据经济日报报道,11月17日,日本内阁府公布三季度GDP,按年率计算下降1.8%,为六个季度以来首 次萎缩。日本金融市场出现股债汇"三杀",20年期国债收益率创1999年以来最高水平。 11月18日,日本金融市场再现股债汇"三杀"。日经225指数暴跌3.22%,日元对美元汇率当天一度下跌至 1美元兑换155.38日元,创今年1月以来最低水平。30年期国债收益率升至3.28%。 11月19日,东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌,日经股指累计下跌2700多点。 日本金融市场的震荡,是日本国内经济低迷,高市早苗财政刺激和货币宽松计划引发市场抛售美元,美 国金融市场抛售科技股、加密货币和黄金等多重因素叠加的结果。其中,高市早苗的妄语妄行毒化了中 日关系,也是新生的市场重大风险。 高市早苗是在做空日元 ...
高市早苗的闹剧,让日本经济先中了“回旋镖” | 京酿馆
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 08:16
Economic Overview - Japan's GDP for the third quarter has decreased by an annualized rate of 1.8%, marking the first contraction in six quarters [2] - The financial market in Japan has experienced significant turmoil, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 3.22% and the yen falling to its lowest level against the dollar since January [2][3] - The decline in the stock market has been compounded by a sell-off in bonds and currency, leading to the highest 20-year bond yield since 1999 [2] Government Policy Impact - Prime Minister Kishi's aggressive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing policies have contributed to market sell-offs, particularly affecting the yen's value [2][4] - The current debt level in Japan is approximately 263% of GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies and potential increases in long-term interest rates [5] - The government's push for military expansion and fiscal stimulus is seen as providing new momentum for short-selling the yen [4] Trade Relations and Risks - Tensions with China, Japan's largest trading partner, have escalated due to provocative statements from Kishi, potentially leading to greater economic repercussions for Japan [3][6] - Japan's reliance on imports from China is significant, with over 50% of certain product categories sourced from China, highlighting the vulnerability of Japan's economy to trade disruptions [6][7] - A reduction in Chinese tourists could lead to a GDP decrease of 0.36%, equating to an economic loss of approximately 2.2 trillion yen [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict continued economic decline in Japan for the fourth quarter due to existing structural issues and rising uncertainties [8] - There is a call for Kishi to retract controversial statements to mitigate risks to the economy, although it remains uncertain whether this will occur [8][9]