日本众议院选举将于本周日（2月8日）举行，这场提前选举不仅决定着日本首相高市早苗的政治命运， 更引发金融市场显著波动。 随着投票日临近，日本政治局势趋于白热化。高市早苗领导的执政党自民党正寻求巩固其统治地位，民 调结果却呈现复杂态势。多项民调显示，高市内阁支持率已从高位回落，不同机构的调查结果存在些许 差异。 共同社近期民调显示，高市内阁的支持率保持在63.6%，与上次调查基本持平，但不支持率为25.6%。 《日经新闻》与东京电视台的联合调查则显示，高市早苗的支持率已从去年12月的75%降至现在的 67%，这是她上任以来首次跌破70%。值得注意的是，56%的受访者认为政府缓解物价的经济刺激方案 不会产生积极效果。 《每日新闻》的调查结果更为严峻，高市内阁支持率已跌至57%，首次跌破60%大关；不支持率则上升 至29%，较上月增加7个百分点。 随着选举临近，对冲基金正在重启做空日元的押注。 据彭博社2月4日援引存管信托与清算公司数据，2月3日价值1亿美元或以上的美元兑日元看涨期权交易 量超过了同等规模的看跌期权。随着看涨期权需求回升，未来一个月对冲美元兑日元下行风险相对上行 风险的溢价已降至近两周最低水平。 支 ...

日本众议院选举将于本周日（2月8日）举行，这场提前选举不仅决定着日本首相高市早苗的政治命 运，更引发金融市场显著波动。 随着选举临近，对冲基金正在重启做空日元的押注。 共同社近期民调显示，高市内阁的支持率保持在63.6%，与上次调查基本持平，但不支持率为 25.6%。 《日经新闻》与东京电视台的联合调查则显示，高市早苗的支持率已从去年12月的75%降至现在的 67%，这是她上任以来首次跌破70%。值得注意的是，56%的受访者认为政府缓解物价的经济刺激方案 不会产生积极效果。 《每日新闻》的调查结果更为严峻，高市内阁支持率已跌至57%，首次跌破60%大关；不支持率则 上升至29%，较上月增加7个百分点。 政治动荡引发投资者紧张情绪。野村新加坡资深跨资产策略师须田义隆指出："投资者充满了怀疑 和不安。"截至上周五，日经225指数的隐含波动率已升至30.6%，超过2024年下议院选举前的28.4%， 成为过去十年选举期间的最高水平。 目前，自民党与日本维新会组成的执政联盟在众议院465个席位中占据233席，仅比过半数多出一 席，根基相当脆弱。高市早苗在1月26日的党首辩论中表示，若执政党阵营未能获得过半数议席，她将 ...

美国财政部的一句话，正在削弱日元最后一道"心理防线"。 据追风交易台，野村在最新外汇策略报告中指出，美国财政部长贝森特公开否认美方正在进行外汇干预，等于间接拆掉了此前压在美元/日元上的"干预预期 锚"，令市场在做空日元时，少了一层顾忌。 从市场反应看，这一表态并非象征性。1月28日贝森特在CNBC直言"Absolutely not"之后，美元/日元迅速反弹，从152.7附近拉升至153.8一线，几乎抹去此前 因"纽约联储查价"传闻引发的跌幅。 真正被击穿的，并不是点位，而是"干预预期" 此前一周，美元/日元从160附近快速回落，很大程度并非基本面逆转，而是市场高度警惕两件事： 美方是否已通过纽约联储"查价"，为联合干预铺路 日本财务省（MOF）是否已悄然入场买入日元 另一条防线来自日本自身。 但野村强调，贝森特的表态实质上弱化了第一条假设。即便纽约联储确实进行过查价，那也只是流程性动作，并不等同于已经、或即将干预。 结果是：美元/日元的"政策风险溢价"被迅速压缩，做空日元重新变成一笔"性价比更高"的交易。 日本是否已经干预？数据给出的答案是：证据不足 野村通过日本央行每日资金账户数据估算发现，在美元/日元大幅 ...

打开百度APP畅享高清图片 ▲日本内阁府公布三季度GDP，按年率计算下降1.8%。图/IC photo 近期高市早苗的一番闹剧式表演，让日本经济挂上了新一层寒霜。 据经济日报报道，11月17日，日本内阁府公布三季度GDP，按年率计算下降1.8%，为六个季度以来首 次萎缩。日本金融市场出现股债汇"三杀"，20年期国债收益率创1999年以来最高水平。 11月18日，日本金融市场再现股债汇"三杀"。日经225指数暴跌3.22%，日元对美元汇率当天一度下跌至 1美元兑换155.38日元，创今年1月以来最低水平。30年期国债收益率升至3.28%。 11月19日，东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌，日经股指累计下跌2700多点。 日本金融市场的震荡，是日本国内经济低迷，高市早苗财政刺激和货币宽松计划引发市场抛售美元，美 国金融市场抛售科技股、加密货币和黄金等多重因素叠加的结果。其中，高市早苗的妄语妄行毒化了中 日关系，也是新生的市场重大风险。 11月20日早盘，日本金融市场止跌反弹，但是这并不代表高市早苗给日本经济造成的风险溢出效应会逐 渐消失。 这场作空日元的盛宴已经开了十几年。即使今年1月24日，日本央行将基准利率从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic turmoil in Japan, marked by a 1.8% annualized decline in GDP for Q3, is attributed to a combination of internal economic stagnation and external geopolitical tensions, particularly involving China [1][6]. Economic Performance - Japan's Q3 GDP contracted by 1.8%, marking the first decline in six quarters [1]. - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 3.22%, and the yen depreciated to 155.38 against the dollar, the lowest since January [1]. - The 30-year government bond yield rose to 3.28%, the highest level since 1999 [1]. Market Reactions - The Japanese financial market experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currency, leading to significant sell-offs [1]. - The Tokyo stock market indices fell for four consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of over 2700 points [1]. Geopolitical Factors - The tensions between Japan and China, exacerbated by Prime Minister Kishi's provocative statements, have led to increased market volatility and investor caution [1][4]. - Japan's reliance on China for imports is significant, with over 50% of certain product categories sourced from China [4]. Investment Climate - The ongoing depreciation of the yen is seen as a result of high fiscal stimulus and military expansion policies under Kishi, which are viewed as contradictory and unsustainable [3]. - International investors have been shorting the yen, taking advantage of the interest rate differentials between Japan and the U.S. [2]. Economic Dependencies - Chinese tourists are crucial to Japan's economy, contributing approximately 30% to tourism revenue; a decline in their visits could significantly impact GDP [5]. - Japan's economic structure is heavily reliant on imports from China, with critical goods such as electronics and fertilizers being predominantly sourced from there [4]. Risk Mitigation - Analysts suggest that Kishi should retract her controversial statements to mitigate economic risks and stabilize market conditions [6]. - The potential for further economic decline in Japan is anticipated in Q4 due to existing structural issues and geopolitical uncertainties [6].

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP for the third quarter has decreased by an annualized rate of 1.8%, marking the first contraction in six quarters [2] - The financial market in Japan has experienced significant turmoil, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 3.22% and the yen falling to its lowest level against the dollar since January [2][3] - The decline in the stock market has been compounded by a sell-off in bonds and currency, leading to the highest 20-year bond yield since 1999 [2] Government Policy Impact - Prime Minister Kishi's aggressive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing policies have contributed to market sell-offs, particularly affecting the yen's value [2][4] - The current debt level in Japan is approximately 263% of GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies and potential increases in long-term interest rates [5] - The government's push for military expansion and fiscal stimulus is seen as providing new momentum for short-selling the yen [4] Trade Relations and Risks - Tensions with China, Japan's largest trading partner, have escalated due to provocative statements from Kishi, potentially leading to greater economic repercussions for Japan [3][6] - Japan's reliance on imports from China is significant, with over 50% of certain product categories sourced from China, highlighting the vulnerability of Japan's economy to trade disruptions [6][7] - A reduction in Chinese tourists could lead to a GDP decrease of 0.36%, equating to an economic loss of approximately 2.2 trillion yen [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict continued economic decline in Japan for the fourth quarter due to existing structural issues and rising uncertainties [8] - There is a call for Kishi to retract controversial statements to mitigate risks to the economy, although it remains uncertain whether this will occur [8][9]