美元兑瑞士法郎在连续两个交易日回落后，于亚洲时段徘徊在0.7670附近。 瑞士方面呈现出截然不同的宏观环境。市场等待瑞士1月通胀数据，分析师预计年度通胀率将维持在0.1%的低位。在主要经济体中，这一水平显得格外温 和。 瑞士国家银行董事长马丁·施莱格尔指出，持续低通胀与0%的政策利率构成现实挑战，传统政策工具空间受限。瑞士央行的目标仍是将通胀维持在0–2%的区 间内，这种区间管理框架强调价格稳定的优先地位。 美元的表现还与美国经济节奏和政策前景的再评估同步展开。本周美国数据发布密集，关键数据落地前，风险偏好有所回暖，但美元并未获得明显支撑，更 多呈现观望与重新定价的特征。市场对美联储利率路径的预期仍是核心变量。 当前定价显示，三月会议维持利率不变的预期占据主导，首次降息时间被放在六月，九月可能出现后续动作。这一时间线反映出市场在通胀放缓迹象与经济 韧性之间寻找平衡点。 通胀预期的变化提供了更具体的观察窗口。美国1月中位未来一年通胀预期降至3.1%，创下六个月低点，显示居民对价格压力的感知有所缓解。食品价格预 期仍维持在5.7%，说明结构性价格压力尚未完全消退。三年与五年的通胀预期稳定在3%，中长期预期的相对稳 ...

货币政策分化是美瑞短期波动的核心。美联储官员近期释放鹰派信号，强调通胀粘性，2026年大概率维 持高利率、暂缓降息，曾为美元提供支撑，但美瑞反弹动能不足。 2月4日亚市盘中，美元兑瑞士法郎窄幅震荡，截至发稿交投于0.7758，日内微涨0.12%，波动区间 0.7746-0.7765。2026年初以来，美瑞持续弱势震荡，核心受瑞郎避险属性、美联储政策预期及美瑞利差 主导，市场观望情绪浓厚。 瑞士凭借政治中立、经常账户盈余、低外债等优势，是全球避险资金核心配置地，长期压制美瑞走势。 当前全球地缘局势仍存不确定性，区域冲突、经济复苏不均等问题未缓解，避险资金持续流入瑞郎，为 其提供稳固支撑。 资金流向显示，近期全球避险ETF持仓攀升，瑞郎相关资产持仓占比环比提升，避险需求未降温。业内 认为，若全球风险偏好未持续回暖，瑞郎避险溢价将长期存在，美瑞上行空间受限。 短线支撑位0.7735(近期震荡下沿)，守住则维持窄幅震荡，跌破将下探0.7680；阻力位0.7825(20日均线 处)，突破有望扭转弱势，冲击0.7900关口。 瑞士央行退出负利率后收紧节奏偏缓，1月CPI同比约1%，远低于欧美，为稳健政策提供空间。尽管市 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses various currency pairs and their respective support and resistance levels across different time frames, indicating potential trading strategies based on these levels [1][2][3][5][7][9][11]. Group 2 - Key economic data and events to watch include China's December trade balance, OPEC's monthly oil report, and various U.S. economic indicators such as retail sales and PPI [13][14].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed analysis of various currency pairs, highlighting key support and resistance levels across different time frames, indicating potential trading strategies based on market signals. Currency Analysis US Dollar Index (DXY) - Monthly outlook is bearish with resistance at 101.70 - Weekly focus on closing resistance at 99 - Daily resistance noted at 98.25 - Short-term critical level between 98.40-50, maintaining a bullish stance until reversal signals appear [1][9] USD/JPY - Monthly outlook is bullish with support at 151 - Weekly support at 154.90 - Daily resistance at 156.30 - Short-term critical level between 156.70-80, maintaining a bullish stance until reversal signals appear [1][9] USD/CAD - Monthly outlook is bearish with resistance at 1.3990 - Weekly resistance at 1.3900 - Daily support at 1.3730 - Short-term critical level between 1.3720-30, maintaining a bullish stance until reversal signals appear [3][9] USD/CHF - Monthly outlook is bearish with support at 0.8320 - Weekly resistance at 0.7980 - Daily support at 0.7920 - Short-term critical level between 0.7920-30, maintaining a bullish stance until reversal signals appear [10][11] EUR/USD - Monthly outlook is bullish with support at 1.1270 - Weekly support at 1.1640 - Daily resistance at 1.1745 - Short-term critical level between 1.1720-30, maintaining a bearish stance until reversal signals appear [11] GBP/USD - Monthly outlook is bullish with support at 1.3170 - Weekly support at 1.3310 - Daily resistance at 1.3345 - Short-term critical level between 1.3345-55, maintaining a bearish stance until reversal signals appear [11][12] AUD/USD - Monthly outlook is bullish with support at 0.6450 - Weekly resistance at 0.6570 - Daily resistance at 0.6660 - Short-term critical level at 0.6690, maintaining a bearish stance until reversal signals appear [12][13] NZD/USD - Monthly outlook is bullish with support at 0.6450 - Short-term critical level at 0.6690, maintaining a bearish stance until reversal signals appear [13] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be monitored on January 5, 2026, includes: 1. China's December RatingDog Services PMI at 09:45 2. Switzerland's November Actual Retail Sales Year-on-Year at 15:30 3. Eurozone's January Sentix Investor Confidence Index at 17:30 4. UK's November Bank of England Mortgage Approvals at 17:30 5. US's December ISM Manufacturing PMI at 23:00 6. Emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council at 23:00 [16][17]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index shows a long-term bearish trend with resistance levels at 101.70 (monthly), 98.90 (weekly), and 98.70 (daily) [1][12] - The USD/JPY pair indicates a long-term bullish trend with support at 150.40 (monthly) and 153.8 (weekly), while resistance is at 155.80 (daily) [1][13] - The USD/CAD pair has a critical support zone between 1.3775-1.3855, maintaining a bullish outlook until a reversal signal appears [2][13] Group 2 - The EUR/USD pair shows a long-term bullish trend with support at 1.1180 (monthly) and resistance at 1.1640 (weekly) [3][17] - The GBP/USD pair has a long-term bullish outlook with support at 1.3100 (monthly) and resistance at 1.3300 (weekly) [6][18] - The AUD/USD pair indicates a long-term bullish trend with support at 0.6430 (monthly) and resistance at 0.6550 (weekly) [22] Group 3 - The NZD/USD pair has a critical resistance level at 0.6630, maintaining a bearish outlook until a reversal signal appears [21] - The USD/CHF pair shows a long-term bearish trend with support at 0.8390 (monthly) [13] - The economic data to be monitored includes China's one-year loan market quotation rate and the UK's Q3 GDP final value [11][23]

Core Viewpoint - The news outlines key support and resistance levels for various currency pairs, indicating potential trading strategies based on market movements. Currency Analysis - **USDJPY**: Monthly resistance at 102.10, weekly support at 98.30, daily resistance at 99.30, and a critical short-term range between 100.10-20 [1][2] - **USDCAD**: Monthly support at 1.4030, weekly support at 1.3890, daily resistance at 1.4020, with a short-term critical range at 1570-80 [5][6] - **USDCHF**: Monthly support at 1.4100-1.4110, with no reversal signal indicating a bearish outlook [7] - **EURUSD**: Weekly support at 0.8000, daily resistance at 0.8000, and a critical range at 0.8090-0.8100 [9] - **GBPUSD**: Monthly support at 1.1120, weekly resistance at 1.1670, daily resistance at 1.1575, with a critical range at 1.1485-1.1495 [11] - **AUDUSD**: Monthly support at 1.3070, weekly resistance at 1.3415, daily resistance at 1.3220, with a critical range at 1.3040-50 [13] - **NZDUSD**: Weekly resistance at 0.6540, daily resistance at 0.6520, and a critical range at 0.6490-0.6500 [15] - **General Market Sentiment**: The analysis suggests a cautious approach, waiting for reversal signals before making significant trades [2][7][9][11][13][15] Economic Events - Key economic events to watch include Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, Germany's industrial output, Switzerland's unemployment rate, Eurozone retail sales, and the Bank of England's interest rate decision [17]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a significant sell-off despite thin liquidity, indicating a loss of confidence in the U.S. economic plan, which is undermining the dollar's long-standing core position in the global financial system [1] Currency Movements - The EUR/USD exchange rate has risen above 1.15, marking the first time since November 2021, with an intraday increase of over 1% [1] - The dollar has depreciated against other currencies, with notable declines including the dollar's drop against the Swiss franc, which has broken an 8-day consolidation range to reach a 10-year low [1]