Core Viewpoint - Argentina's regulatory actions aim to suppress the demand for US dollars in the financial market, reflecting the government's commitment to defend the peso amid ongoing economic challenges [1] Regulatory Actions - The Argentine National Securities Commission (CNV) recently clarified existing regulations, prohibiting brokers from selling local dollar-denominated financial instruments if they hold peso-denominated repurchase agreements (REPO) or other short-term loan positions [1] - This regulation effectively prevents market participants from using short-term peso financing to purchase US dollars, indicating a tightening of foreign exchange controls [1] Government Intervention - The government, under the leadership of Javier Milei, has increased its buying power in dollar futures and implemented measures to tighten market liquidity [1] - Despite these interventions, the peso approached the upper limit of its trading range on the following Monday, suggesting ongoing pressure on the currency [1] Economic Analysis - Economist Juan Manuel Trucco from Buenos Aires consulting firm Outlier described the recent regulatory changes as a clear tightening of foreign exchange controls [1]

Group 1: Forex Market Overview - The forex market is experiencing unpredictable volatility, with traders closely monitoring ongoing debates about the independence of the Federal Reserve and speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [1] - Speculators have increased their net short positions in the US dollar (USD) to approximately 61,000 contracts, marking a two-week high, while open interest has risen to nearly 315,000 contracts, the highest in four weeks [1] Group 2: Euro and Yen Positions - Speculative net long positions in the euro (EUR) have risen to a four-week high, slightly above 123,000 contracts, while non-commercial traders have increased their bearish positions, bringing their short positions close to 173,200 contracts [4] - Non-commercial traders have increased their net long positions in the Japanese yen (JPY) to nearly 84,500 contracts, the highest in four weeks, while institutional net short positions have climbed to approximately 90,100 contracts, the highest since late July [4] Group 3: British Pound and Australian Dollar - Speculators have increased their net short positions in the British pound (GBP) to a two-week high of about 31,300 contracts, with open interest rising for the third consecutive week to nearly 220,000 contracts, the first increase since early June [4] - The net short positions in the Australian dollar (AUD) have risen to the lowest level since April 2024, approximately 100,600 contracts, with open interest increasing for the fourth consecutive week to nearly 191,200 contracts [5] Group 4: Gold Market - Non-commercial net long positions in gold have rebounded to a two-week high of approximately 214,300 contracts, with open interest also showing a significant rebound, reaching about 443,800 contracts [5] - Gold prices are regaining strong upward momentum, challenging the $3,400 per ounce mark in the coming weeks [5]

Group 1 - The core CPI data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly impacts the foreign exchange market, causing dramatic fluctuations in the dollar index [1][3] - In June 2023, the core CPI increased by 4.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which led to a 1.2% rise in the dollar index within 90 seconds [1][3] - The market quickly recalibrates interest rate expectations using the "Taylor Rule," where a 0.1% increase in core CPI raises the implied probability of rate hikes by an average of 8 percentage points [3] Group 2 - Algorithmic trading systems rapidly reassess the positions of Federal Reserve officials based on CPI data, leading to significant market movements, such as a 15 basis point rise in two-year Treasury yields within 20 minutes following a CPI release [3] - The "interest rate differential arbitrage unwinding spiral" is triggered by CPI data, which strengthens rate hike expectations and increases the actual yield on dollar assets, prompting institutional investors to shift from negative-yielding eurozone bonds [3][4] - On the day of CPI announcements, there is a positive correlation of 0.7 between the deviation of the data and the inflow of funds into dollar money market funds [3] Group 3 - High-frequency trading algorithms initiate preset strategies immediately after CPI data is released, resulting in a trading volume for dollar futures that is 18 times the daily average within the first 50 milliseconds [4] - The liquidity supply from market makers shows significant asymmetry, with the bid-ask spread for euro-dollar widening 2.3 times more when data exceeds expectations compared to when it falls short [4] Group 4 - Doo Financial recommends investors to develop a three-dimensional analytical framework that includes inflation expectation disaggregation, interest rate sensitivity testing, and volatility transmission monitoring [5] - Historical data indicates that adjusting dollar exposure to a delta-neutral position 20 minutes before CPI announcements can reduce net value drawdowns by 42% during extreme volatility [5] - The macro event analysis model has identified a 73% certainty in the mid-term trend of the dollar index when core goods inflation diverges from housing inflation, validated across six CPI events from 2022 to June 2023 [5]

本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN SW4BU6DWRGG0 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 伴随行业飞速发展、地缘政治博弈、供需天平摇摆…全球能源市场时刻处于动荡之中。彭博行 业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您及时传递行业动态，并基于高质量数据、模型与分析 助您解读市场变化，看见全局、看向前景。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博能源行业研究双周报 本期主题： OPEC+增产幅度超预期或扰动石油市场情绪 (彭博行业研究)——OPEC+于5月3日宣布增产4 1 . 1万桶/日，幅度超出预期，这标志着该组 织正转向低油价战略，以约束哈萨克斯坦和伊拉克等过度增产的成员国。此举可能有助于维 持OPEC+内部的长期团结，但由此引发的供应过剩可能促使石油交易员大幅削减敞口；从 CFTC原油期货投机性头寸的减少来看，这一趋势已经显现。我们预计WTI原油价格在今年 第四季度可能跌至每桶5 0美元的水平。 铜市看空押注的增加表明，交易员预计铜进口量将大幅下降。 数据来源：彭博行业研究 美元期货净头寸多转空 因利率走势存在不确定性 4月2 5日当周，美元指数期货净头寸继续处于净空头 ...