技术面与资金面信号警示风险。美元指数处于200日均线(99.66)下方，下行阻力小，跌破98.76及98.30支 撑或触发程序化抛售，下看97.81。12月3日美元期货成交量16434手大增，持仓量降至39825手，显示多 空博弈升温，资金正撤离美元。 机构对美元短期走势分歧。美银认为降息预期已定价，鹰派信号或推动指数反弹至100；高盛则称美元 对G10货币溢价3%-5%，反弹空间有限。中长期看，美元走势取决于美国经济相对增速：若美经济企稳 而欧英复苏滞后，美元或重拾避险属性；反之全球同步回升将开启美元贬值周期。 投资者需聚焦两大逻辑：一是美联储决议中"政策路径"表述而非仅利率变动；二是美经济数据与非美货 币联动性——若欧元、英镑续强，美元反弹或昙花一现。建议以98.8-99.2为操作锚点，结合PCE数据与 决议动态调整策略。 美国经济数据碎片化加剧波动。11月ISM制造业PMI录48.2不及预期，连续两月收缩，推升降息预期； 但同期物价指数升至58.5，显示通胀压力仍存。更关键的是，美国政府停摆导致10月CPI等数据"或无法 发布"，美联储需在信息不全下决策，放大美元波动率。 非美货币走强侧面压制美元。欧元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Argentina's regulatory actions aim to suppress the demand for US dollars in the financial market, reflecting the government's commitment to defend the peso amid ongoing economic challenges [1] Regulatory Actions - The Argentine National Securities Commission (CNV) recently clarified existing regulations, prohibiting brokers from selling local dollar-denominated financial instruments if they hold peso-denominated repurchase agreements (REPO) or other short-term loan positions [1] - This regulation effectively prevents market participants from using short-term peso financing to purchase US dollars, indicating a tightening of foreign exchange controls [1] Government Intervention - The government, under the leadership of Javier Milei, has increased its buying power in dollar futures and implemented measures to tighten market liquidity [1] - Despite these interventions, the peso approached the upper limit of its trading range on the following Monday, suggesting ongoing pressure on the currency [1] Economic Analysis - Economist Juan Manuel Trucco from Buenos Aires consulting firm Outlier described the recent regulatory changes as a clear tightening of foreign exchange controls [1]

Group 1: Forex Market Overview - The forex market is experiencing unpredictable volatility, with traders closely monitoring ongoing debates about the independence of the Federal Reserve and speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [1] - Speculators have increased their net short positions in the US dollar (USD) to approximately 61,000 contracts, marking a two-week high, while open interest has risen to nearly 315,000 contracts, the highest in four weeks [1] Group 2: Euro and Yen Positions - Speculative net long positions in the euro (EUR) have risen to a four-week high, slightly above 123,000 contracts, while non-commercial traders have increased their bearish positions, bringing their short positions close to 173,200 contracts [4] - Non-commercial traders have increased their net long positions in the Japanese yen (JPY) to nearly 84,500 contracts, the highest in four weeks, while institutional net short positions have climbed to approximately 90,100 contracts, the highest since late July [4] Group 3: British Pound and Australian Dollar - Speculators have increased their net short positions in the British pound (GBP) to a two-week high of about 31,300 contracts, with open interest rising for the third consecutive week to nearly 220,000 contracts, the first increase since early June [4] - The net short positions in the Australian dollar (AUD) have risen to the lowest level since April 2024, approximately 100,600 contracts, with open interest increasing for the fourth consecutive week to nearly 191,200 contracts [5] Group 4: Gold Market - Non-commercial net long positions in gold have rebounded to a two-week high of approximately 214,300 contracts, with open interest also showing a significant rebound, reaching about 443,800 contracts [5] - Gold prices are regaining strong upward momentum, challenging the $3,400 per ounce mark in the coming weeks [5]

Group 1 - The core CPI data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly impacts the foreign exchange market, causing dramatic fluctuations in the dollar index [1][3] - In June 2023, the core CPI increased by 4.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which led to a 1.2% rise in the dollar index within 90 seconds [1][3] - The market quickly recalibrates interest rate expectations using the "Taylor Rule," where a 0.1% increase in core CPI raises the implied probability of rate hikes by an average of 8 percentage points [3] Group 2 - Algorithmic trading systems rapidly reassess the positions of Federal Reserve officials based on CPI data, leading to significant market movements, such as a 15 basis point rise in two-year Treasury yields within 20 minutes following a CPI release [3] - The "interest rate differential arbitrage unwinding spiral" is triggered by CPI data, which strengthens rate hike expectations and increases the actual yield on dollar assets, prompting institutional investors to shift from negative-yielding eurozone bonds [3][4] - On the day of CPI announcements, there is a positive correlation of 0.7 between the deviation of the data and the inflow of funds into dollar money market funds [3] Group 3 - High-frequency trading algorithms initiate preset strategies immediately after CPI data is released, resulting in a trading volume for dollar futures that is 18 times the daily average within the first 50 milliseconds [4] - The liquidity supply from market makers shows significant asymmetry, with the bid-ask spread for euro-dollar widening 2.3 times more when data exceeds expectations compared to when it falls short [4] Group 4 - Doo Financial recommends investors to develop a three-dimensional analytical framework that includes inflation expectation disaggregation, interest rate sensitivity testing, and volatility transmission monitoring [5] - Historical data indicates that adjusting dollar exposure to a delta-neutral position 20 minutes before CPI announcements can reduce net value drawdowns by 42% during extreme volatility [5] - The macro event analysis model has identified a 73% certainty in the mid-term trend of the dollar index when core goods inflation diverges from housing inflation, validated across six CPI events from 2022 to June 2023 [5]

Group 1 - OPEC+ announced an unexpected production increase of 41,100 barrels per day on May 3, indicating a shift towards a low oil price strategy to manage overproduction from member countries like Kazakhstan and Iraq [3][4] - This production increase may help maintain long-term unity within OPEC+, but could also lead to oversupply, prompting traders to significantly reduce their positions [3][4] - WTI crude oil prices are expected to drop to $50 per barrel in Q4 2023, reflecting a 6.3% decrease from the previous month and a cumulative decline of 21.2% since the beginning of 2023 [4] Group 2 - The net long positions in copper futures decreased by 35.5% to 19,369 contracts as of the week ending May 2, despite stable copper prices during the same period, indicating increased bearish bets on copper imports [5] - The net positions in dollar futures shifted from a net long of 7,041 contracts to a net short of 449 contracts, reflecting growing investor concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and interest rate uncertainty [6][9]