管涛 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 日前，国际货币基金组织（IMF）披露了最新全球外汇储备币种构成（COFER）数据。截至二季度末，在全球披露币种构成的外汇储备中，美元占比由上季 末的57.79%降至56.32%，回落1.47个百分点，其储备份额连续11个季度低于60%，进一步创30年来新低。尽管这与当季美元指数贬值7.1%的负估值效应有 关，但难掩国际储备货币体系加速多极化的发展趋势。 美元储备份额下降不仅是汇率估值损失 披露COFER数据当日，或许是为预防市场炒作，IMF配发了一篇文章，题为"经汇率调整后，美元储备份额在第二季度保持稳定"，副标题是"汇率因素几乎 贡献了美元储备份额的所有降幅"。 文中指出，今年上半年美元指数下跌超过10%，创下1973年以来的最大跌幅。如果保持汇率不变，第二季度，美元储备份额仅略有下降至57.67%，回落0.13 个百分点。文中还特别指明第二季度的最大赢家欧元有点"胜之不武"。原始数据显示，当季，欧元储备份额从3个月前的20%升至21.13%，上升了1.13个百 分点，但欧元当季对美元升值9%，汇率的正估值效应贡献了1.17个百分点。如果汇率保持稳定，欧元储备份额将下降0.04 ...

Core Points - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell by 10.8% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973, despite significant net capital inflows into the U.S. [1][2] - The decline in the dollar index is attributed to marginal changes in international capital flows rather than a direct correlation with foreign investment in U.S. securities [2][3] - New trade agreements initiated by the U.S. government are expected to reduce the attractiveness of U.S. securities for foreign investors, potentially undermining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1][12][14] Capital Flow Analysis - In the first half of the year, the U.S. attracted a net capital inflow of $767.7 billion, a 2.78-fold increase year-on-year, despite a significant drop in the dollar index [2][3] - The net inflow decreased by $200.8 billion (20.7%) compared to the second half of the previous year, primarily due to a reduction in private foreign investment [2][3] - Private foreign investment decreased by $325.8 billion, contributing to a 162.3% drop in net capital inflow, while official foreign investment shifted from a net outflow to a net inflow of $1.08 billion [2][3] Securities Investment Trends - Foreign investors did not significantly reduce their holdings of U.S. securities but instead decreased their cash holdings in dollars while increasing investments in foreign securities [3][4] - Foreign investors net purchased $941.9 billion in U.S. securities, a record high for the first half of the year, with a notable increase in U.S. Treasury purchases [3][4] - There was a marked decrease in purchases of U.S. corporate stocks, reflecting a reduced risk appetite among foreign investors due to U.S. economic and trade policy uncertainties [4][5] Official Foreign Investment Insights - Official foreign investment in U.S. Treasury securities saw a significant turnaround, moving from a net sell of $57.6 billion to a net buy of $115.9 billion [5][10] - The overall interest in U.S. Treasury securities among private and official foreign investors showed a stark contrast, with private investors reducing their net purchases [5][10] - The trend indicates that while official foreign investors are increasing their holdings in U.S. Treasuries, private investors are becoming more cautious, particularly regarding U.S. equities [5][10] Impact of Trade Policies - The new trade agreements aim to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, which could lead to a decrease in foreign investment inflows [12][14] - The U.S. government’s aggressive trade policies may negatively impact the dollar's reserve currency status, as effective deficit reduction could lead to reduced capital inflows [12][14] - The structural relationship between trade deficits and capital inflows suggests that a decrease in trade deficits may correlate with a decline in foreign investment in U.S. securities [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The rumors regarding foreign capital selling US Treasury bonds are unfounded, as data from the US Treasury's International Capital Movement report indicates that the turmoil in May was not caused by foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In May, global trade tensions eased, with the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy in a 90-day buffer period, leading to a 27.6% month-on-month decline in the US trade policy uncertainty index [1]. - The US government faced increasing criticism of the Federal Reserve, and Moody's downgraded the US's last AAA sovereign credit rating, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and the sustainability of US debt [1]. - The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields rose above 4.5% and 5.0%, respectively, with monthly increases of 24 and 26 basis points, resulting in a significant drop in Treasury prices [1]. Group 2: Capital Flows - In April, international capital experienced a net outflow of $146 billion, reversing a net inflow of $171.2 billion in March, coinciding with a 4.4% drop in the dollar index [2]. - In May, the US financial market rebounded, with the S&P 500 index rising 6.1%, leading to a net capital inflow of $311.1 billion, a month-on-month increase of $3.257 billion, marking the third-highest monthly inflow on record [2]. Group 3: Foreign Investment in US Securities - Foreign investors net purchased $318.5 billion in US long-term securities in May, a month-on-month increase of $369.1 billion, contributing 113.1% to the net capital inflow [3]. - Private foreign capital was the main contributor, with a net inflow of $333.2 billion, a month-on-month increase of $330.4 billion, marking the highest monthly net inflow on record [4]. Group 4: Types of Securities - Foreign investors significantly increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, with net purchases of $1.463 billion in May, a month-on-month increase of $1.871 billion, contributing 50.7% to the net purchases of long-term securities [5]. - Private foreign investors were the primary buyers of US long-term securities, shifting from a net sale of $50.6 billion to a net purchase of $318.5 billion in May [5][6]. Group 5: Country Contributions - Canada was the largest contributor to the net purchase of US long-term securities in May, with a net inflow of $146.7 billion, accounting for 39.7% of the total [9]. - Other significant contributors included the Cayman Islands, Singapore, China, and Japan, with China ending a 10-month streak of net sales to net purchase $3.2 billion in May [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis of cross-border securities investment between China and the U.S. reveals a significant decline in Chinese investments in U.S. long-term securities, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds, while investments in U.S. company stocks have increased, indicating a shift in investment strategy [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Chinese Investment in U.S. Long-term Securities - As of the end of 2024, Chinese investors held $1,309.3 billion in U.S. long-term securities, a decrease of $220.8 billion or 14.4% from the end of 2020, accounting for 4.1% of foreign holdings [2]. - The balance of Chinese holdings in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds was $698.6 billion, down $334 billion or 32.3%, contributing significantly to the overall decline in Chinese long-term securities investments [2][5]. - In contrast, Chinese holdings of U.S. company stocks increased to $375.1 billion, a rise of $113.9 billion or 43.6%, offsetting some of the declines in other areas [3]. Group 2: Changes in Specific Securities - Chinese holdings of U.S. government agency bonds remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of $4 billion or 1.9%, while holdings of U.S. corporate bonds decreased by $4.7 billion or 19.6% [4][6]. - The overall reduction in Chinese long-term securities was influenced by a net reduction of $1,722 billion in U.S. long-term securities, with non-transactional changes accounting for $692 billion [4][6]. Group 3: U.S. Investment in Chinese Securities - As of the end of 2024, U.S. investors held $246 billion in Chinese long-term securities, a decrease of $39.6 billion or 13.9% from the end of 2020, representing 1.6% of U.S. foreign long-term securities holdings [7]. - The primary reason for this decline was a reduction in U.S. holdings of Chinese company stocks, which fell by $21.3 billion or 8.5% [7][9]. - U.S. holdings of Chinese government bonds decreased significantly by $15.6 billion or 52.7%, contributing to the overall decline in U.S. investments in Chinese long-term securities [8][9]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis of Investment Trends - Despite the differences in scale, both Chinese and U.S. investments in their respective long-term securities show similar proportions, each around 2% of their total foreign securities investments [8]. - The data indicates that while U.S. investors have been reducing their exposure to Chinese securities, Chinese investors have been diversifying their investments, particularly increasing their stakes in U.S. equities [12][13].