美联储货币政策转向不仅影响短期资本流动，更将深刻改变国际货币体系的运行逻辑和全球金融治理的 架构设计。根据国际货币体系演进理论，美元流动性条件的改变将影响新兴市场和发展中经济体的融资 成本和融资渠道，可能推动国际货币体系多元化进程加速。 全球金融体系正迎来一个深刻变革与重构的历史性时刻。美联储于2025年9月18日宣布下调联邦基金利 率，将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%至4.50%下调25个基点至4.00%至4.25%，这是美联储2025年以来 首次降息；10月29日，美联储进一步将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间，也 是自去年9月开启降息周期以来的第五次降息，本年度累计降幅已达50个基点，不仅标志着其货币政策 周期的重要转折，更意味着全球货币政策协调机制、资本流动格局与金融治理体系将进入新一轮调整与 重塑阶段。这一转变既源于美国国内经济周期演进与结构变迁的内生要求，也是应对全球经济增速放 缓、通胀动态演变与金融环境变化的必然选择。正如习近平总书记所指出的"全球治理体系正处于调整 变革的关键时期，我们要积极参与国际规则制定，做全球治理变革进程的参与者、推动者、引领 者。"在这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Future Rate Outlook - The recent rate cut was fully anticipated by the market, with expectations for a continued easing cycle in the future [2]. - Discrepancies within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate paths have widened, with upcoming decisions heavily reliant on delayed economic data due to the U.S. government shutdown [2]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from over 90% to around 70% [2]. Group 2: Impact on Global Asset Prices - The rate cut is expected to have profound effects on global asset prices, with U.S. equities likely to experience short-term volatility but long-term dependence on economic fundamentals [3]. - U.S. Treasury yields may rise in the short term but are expected to trend downward in the medium term as the easing cycle progresses [3]. - The dollar index may find short-term support but has limited upside potential, while gold could benefit from improved liquidity conditions [3]. Group 3: A-shares and Bond Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its positive momentum, supported by the easing of capital outflow pressures from emerging markets and a favorable liquidity environment [6]. - The bond market is anticipated to remain strong, with the potential for further rate cuts in China, alleviating pressure from the U.S.-China interest rate differential [6]. - The easing of monetary policy in both the U.S. and China is likely to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese bonds, potentially drawing in more allocation funds [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1][2] - The decision aligns with market expectations, and there is potential for continued rate cuts in the future, with estimates suggesting up to three additional cuts over the next 12 months [2][4] - The current rate remains above the neutral rate of 3.5%, indicating room for further policy easing depending on employment and inflation targets [2] Group 2 - The impact of the rate cut is expected to be significant on global asset prices, with U.S. equities likely to experience short-term volatility but long-term dependence on economic fundamentals [3][4] - U.S. Treasury yields may rise in the short term but are expected to trend downward in the medium term, leading to potential increases in bond prices [3][4] - The dollar index may face limited upward movement, while gold could benefit from improved liquidity conditions, although its appeal as a safe-haven asset may be temporarily suppressed [3] Group 3 - The A-share market is anticipated to continue its positive momentum, supported by the Fed's rate cut and a favorable liquidity environment [5][6] - The bond market is expected to remain strong, with the potential for capital inflows into Chinese bonds as the Fed's actions alleviate pressure on the RMB exchange rate [6] - The easing of monetary policy in both the U.S. and China is likely to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese bonds, with expectations of further rate cuts domestically [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves, highlighting a trend towards a multipolar international reserve currency system, with the dollar's share dropping to a 30-year low of 56.32% as of the second quarter of this year [1][11]. Group 1: Dollar Reserve Share Dynamics - As of the end of Q2, the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell from 57.79% to 56.32%, a decrease of 1.47 percentage points, marking the 11th consecutive quarter below 60% [1]. - The decline in the dollar's share is attributed to a 7.1% depreciation of the dollar index during the same period, indicating a negative valuation effect [1][3]. - The IMF's article on the same day emphasized that the dollar's reserve share remained stable when adjusted for exchange rates, suggesting that the decline was primarily due to valuation losses rather than a fundamental shift in reserve preferences [3]. Group 2: Euro and Other Currencies - The euro's reserve share increased from 20% to 21.13%, a rise of 1.13 percentage points, but this was largely due to a 9% appreciation against the dollar, which masked a potential decline in its reserve share if exchange rates had remained stable [3][4]. - The article argues that the focus on exchange rate effects overlooks the positive impact of asset price revaluation on the dollar's reserve share [4]. Group 3: US Long-term Securities and Foreign Holdings - As of June, foreign official holdings of US long-term securities (excluding international organizations) amounted to $67,395 billion, closely aligning with the IMF's reported global dollar reserves of $67,733 billion [4]. - The TIC report indicates that foreign official investors held $38,191 billion in US Treasury securities, $5,078 billion in agency debt, $2,185 billion in corporate bonds, and $21,941 billion in US equities, with equities representing over 30% of total holdings [4]. Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Behavior - The US stock market experienced significant volatility, with a 4.8% decline in Q1 followed by an 11% rebound in Q2, impacting the valuation of US equities held by foreign officials [6]. - In Q1, foreign official holdings recorded a valuation loss of $197 billion, while Q2 saw a valuation gain of $2,152 billion, indicating the substantial influence of market fluctuations on reserve valuations [6][8]. - In Q2, net purchases of US long-term securities by foreign officials fell to $51 billion, a 94.4% decrease from the previous quarter, highlighting a shift in investment strategy towards equities and away from safer assets like US Treasuries [8]. Group 5: Trends in Global Reserve Currency System - The article notes a continuing trend towards the diversification of the international reserve currency system, often associated with "de-dollarization," which refers to reducing reliance on the dollar in international trade and finance [12][20]. - Despite the decline in the dollar's share, the article suggests that the dollar's dominance remains resilient, as evidenced by its continued high percentage in global foreign exchange transactions [21].

Core Insights - As of September 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $333.87 billion, an increase of $16.5 billion from the end of August, marking a 0.5% rise [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and expectations from major economies, alongside a general rise in global financial asset prices [1][2] - The current foreign exchange reserve level is the highest since December 2015, indicating improved capacity to mitigate various shocks [2] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves are expected to remain stable, with a current level slightly above $3 trillion deemed adequate [2] - The stability of reserves is supported by a steady economic performance and high-quality development outcomes [2] - Adequate foreign exchange reserves will help maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium and act as a buffer against potential external shocks [2] Group 2: Gold Reserves - As of September, China's gold reserves stood at 7.406 million ounces, with an increase of 40,000 ounces, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [3] - The pace of gold accumulation has slightly decreased compared to previous months, indicating a balance between optimizing reserve structure and controlling acquisition costs [3] - International gold prices have been on the rise, with a significant increase of over 10% in September, the largest monthly gain in 14 years [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has indicated a potential interest rate cut after prolonged negotiations with the U.S. government, marking a strategic shift in response to economic downturn risks, which may lead to significant adjustments in global capital markets [1][2] - Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, suggested that despite inflation risks, the Fed may need to adjust its monetary policy stance in the coming months, with market expectations for a September rate cut exceeding 90% following his remarks [1][2] - The U.S. financial markets reacted positively to Powell's speech, with major stock indices rising over 1%, the dollar index falling by 0.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by more than 7.5 basis points to 4.256% [1] Group 2 - Historically, Fed rate cuts have led to cross-border capital reallocation and asset price reevaluation, but current global economic conditions and geopolitical tensions may complicate this process, posing various risks [2][3] - A Fed rate cut could weaken the relative returns on dollar-denominated assets, prompting capital to flow towards high-growth emerging markets, which may alleviate local financing pressures but also create structural vulnerabilities [2][3] - The dollar index has fallen below the 100 mark, and if a rate cut occurs in September, further depreciation of the dollar could impact global trade differently, benefiting resource-importing countries while challenging export-oriented economies [2] Group 3 - The initiation of rate cuts amidst a core inflation rate of 3.1% may undermine the long-term value of the dollar, potentially accelerating the global trend of "de-dollarization" [3][4] - The liquidity expansion from rate cuts is expected to increase risk asset prices, with varying impacts across markets; U.S. equities, particularly tech stocks, may face valuation bubbles, while emerging market equities could see valuation recovery due to foreign capital inflows [3][4] - A record high of 91% of surveyed fund managers believe that U.S. stock valuations are excessive, indicating a growing concern over financial fragility in the market [3] Group 4 - The Fed's independence is facing unprecedented challenges, with political pressure from the U.S. President potentially distorting policy timing and increasing market volatility [4][5] - Debt risks in both emerging markets and the U.S. may be temporarily masked during the rate cut cycle, but could resurface if interest rate paths deviate from market expectations, leading to refinancing pressures and potential localized debt crises [4][5] - The dual nature of rate cuts presents both recovery potential for the economy and structural risks, highlighting the need for careful consideration of the implications of monetary easing [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has indicated a potential interest rate cut in response to economic downturn risks, marking a significant shift in strategy for both the U.S. and global capital markets [1][2] - Following Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, market expectations for a September rate cut surged above 90%, leading to notable market reactions including a rise in U.S. stock indices and a decline in the dollar index [1][2] - Historically, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have led to cross-border capital reallocation and asset price reevaluation, but current global economic conditions present unique risks that may not follow past patterns [2][3] Group 2 - A rate cut could weaken the relative returns on dollar-denominated assets, prompting capital to flow towards emerging markets with higher growth potential, although this influx may create structural vulnerabilities in those markets [2][3] - The dollar index has fallen below the 100 mark, and further declines could impact global trade differently, benefiting resource-importing countries while challenging export-oriented economies [2][3] - The potential for a weakening dollar and the expansion of liquidity may inflate risk asset prices, but the effects will vary across markets, with U.S. equities, particularly tech stocks, already showing signs of overvaluation [3][4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates amidst persistent core inflation raises concerns about the long-term value of the dollar and may accelerate the process of "de-dollarization" globally [3][4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under unprecedented pressure, with political influences potentially distorting policy decisions and increasing market volatility [4][5] - While rate cuts can stimulate economic recovery, they also introduce structural risks that could lead to debt crises if refinancing pressures arise due to unexpected shifts in interest rate trajectories [4][5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has hinted at a possible interest rate cut in response to economic downturn risks, marking a significant shift in strategy for the U.S. and global capital markets [1] - Following Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, market expectations for a September rate cut surged above 90%, leading to notable market reactions including a rise in U.S. stock indices and a decline in the dollar index [1][2] - Historically, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have led to capital reallocation and asset price reevaluation, but the current global economic landscape presents unique risks that may not replicate past liquidity booms [2] Group 2 - A potential rate cut could weaken the relative returns on dollar-denominated assets, prompting capital to flow towards high-growth emerging markets, which may alleviate local financing pressures but also create structural vulnerabilities [2][3] - The dollar index has fallen below the 100 mark, and further declines could impact global trade differently, benefiting resource-importing countries while challenging export-oriented economies [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates amidst persistent core inflation raises concerns about the long-term value of the dollar and may accelerate the process of de-dollarization globally [3] Group 3 - The expansion of liquidity from rate cuts is expected to increase risk asset prices, but the effects will vary across markets, with U.S. equities, particularly tech stocks, already showing signs of overvaluation [3][4] - The current rate cut cycle faces unprecedented challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, with political pressures potentially distorting policy decisions and increasing market volatility [4] - While rate cuts can stimulate economic recovery, they also mask underlying debt risks that could lead to crises if interest rate paths deviate from market expectations [4][5]