贵金属周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 美白银交割风险再现，银价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格震荡上行，国际金价再度站上4250美元/ 盎司，白银价格在上周五再创历史新高，国际银价因COMEX 白银交割风险上攻至57美元/盎司上方，再创历史新高， 国内白银价格也再创新高，站上13000元/千克。上周四国 内铂、钯期货上市首日波动剧烈，第二个交易日波动收窄。 ⚫ 近期，越来越多的美联储官员发布言论纷纷支持12月降 息。美联储主席选拔进入最后阶段，贝森特称，特朗普预 计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Due to the stronger-than-expected US September non-farm payroll data and hawkish statements from multiple Fed officials, the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut is about 50%, and precious metal prices continue to adjust. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end-point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. With the influence of Trump on the Fed's independence emerging and the slowdown of the US employment situation, although Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, the Fed officials have expressed hawkish views, and the October meeting minutes show that further interest rate cuts are not guaranteed. Given the weakening trend of US economic data and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, it is expected that precious metal prices will still be supported in the medium term but remain in an adjustment state in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Gold**: The US September non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected, and multiple Fed officials made hawkish statements, causing the price of US gold to fluctuate and adjust. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4,063 per ounce, down 0.5% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,150, and the lower support level is $3,950 [6]. - **Silver**: The US September non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected, and multiple Fed officials made hawkish statements, leading to a fluctuating adjustment in the price of US silver. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.1%, closing at $50.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $48.5, and the upper resistance level is $51.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The precious metal prices continue to adjust due to the strong non-farm payroll data and hawkish Fed statements. There is uncertainty about the December interest rate cut, and the expected end-point of the interest rate cut has been lowered. The US economic data is weakening, and concerns about the fiscal situation and Fed independence support the medium-term precious metal prices, but they are in short-term adjustment [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Multiple charts are presented, including the US dollar index, euro-to-US dollar and pound-to-US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates (10-year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10-year and 2-year), yield spreads (10Y - 2Y), Fed balance sheet size and its weekly changes, gold-silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [15][17][19][21]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - **US September Non-farm Payrolls**: The seasonally adjusted change in non-farm employment was 1.19 million, higher than the expected 0.5 million and the previous value of 0.22 million. - **US September Unemployment Rate**: It was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.7% and the previous value of 3.7% [24]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson said that as monetary policy gradually approaches a level that will not put downward pressure on inflation, the Fed needs to "proceed with caution" in further interest rate cuts. He believes that the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points last month was appropriate considering the rising risks in the job market and the recent "easing" of inflation. - US employment growth accelerated in September, but the labor market remained weak, unable to keep up with the pace of new job seekers. Employers are dealing with the impact of import tariffs and introducing artificial intelligence into some positions. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest in four years. Non-farm payrolls increased by 1.19 million, far higher than the economists' forecast of 0.5 million, and the August data was revised down to a decrease of 4,000 jobs, highlighting the weakness of the labor market [25]. 3.6 Inventory - **Gold**: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 19,233.59 kg to 1,143,494.71 kg, while the SHFE inventory remained unchanged at 90,426 kg. - **Silver**: This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 465,546.71 kg to 14,329,462.14 kg, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 57,623 kg to 519,271 kg [13][28]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of October 7, the CFTC speculative fund net long positions for gold were 225,202 contracts, a decrease of 22,879 contracts from the previous week; for silver, they were 43,722 contracts, a decrease of 4,363 contracts from the previous week [13][33]. 3.8 This Week's Focus - On Wednesday, November 26, at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29 will be released [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. With market divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude and a downward - adjusted expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts, and under the support of interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪, precious metal prices are expected to remain supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Affected by factors such as the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, the price of US gold continued to be strong, closing at $4,268 per ounce last Friday, up 5.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,400, and the lower support level is $4,100 [6]. - Similarly, due to the above factors and the tightness of London silver spot, the price of US silver continued to be strong, with a weekly increase of 6.5%, closing at $50.6 per ounce. The lower support level is $48.5, and the upper resistance level is $52 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - With the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. The market has a divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts is lower than before. Fed meeting minutes show that most officials think further policy relaxation this year may be appropriate. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be sustained. With the US economic data trending weaker, and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported under the interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators No specific analysis content provided, only some data charts such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and bond yields are presented. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The Eurozone October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7, down from the previous value of 26.1 [25]. - The US October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was - 12.8, far lower than the expected 9 and the previous value of 23.2 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Fed Governor Milan said that the resurgence of Sino - US trade tensions has brought new downward risks to the economic outlook, making it more important for the Fed to cut the target interest rate. He believes it is more urgent to take a more neutral policy stance [26]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 25,926.98 kg to 1,216,367.63 kg, while the SHFE inventory increased by 13,878 kg to 84,606 kg [13]. - For silver, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 404,484.72 kg to 15,845,968 kg, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 248,958 kg to 920,103 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week [13]. - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday (October 20), at 20:30, the US September non - farm payrolls change seasonally adjusted and the US September unemployment rate will be released [37]. - On Friday (October 24), at 20:30, the US September CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released [37].

Report Overview - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - Report Date: September 1, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Guodong - Industry: Precious Metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is emerging, and Powell's dovish remarks have increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices [6][9][11]. - The results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries have been finalized, with the tariff increase generally lower than market expectations, raising optimistic expectations for a trade agreement between the US and Europe [11]. - The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell indicated that changing economic risks provide a stronger reason for the Fed to cut interest rates [11]. - US tariff policies are basically finalized, but the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, so precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is emerging, and Powell's dovish remarks have increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut, causing the prices of both US gold and silver to rebound [6][9]. - As of last Friday, US gold closed at $3516 per ounce, up 2.9% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3560, and the lower support level is $3450 [6]. - US silver had a weekly increase of 3.5%, closing at $40.8 per ounce. The lower support level is $38.9, and the upper resistance level is $41.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - Precious metal prices are expected to continue to rebound due to increased expectations of a September interest rate cut. The results of US trade negotiations have raised optimism about a US - Europe trade agreement [11]. - The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell said that economic risks give the Fed more reason to cut interest rates [11]. - US tariff policies are basically finalized, and the market's concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects are expected to support precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US August non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [11]. - Strategy suggestion: Buy on dips after the price correction. Refer to the operating range of 775 - 820 for the Shanghai Gold 10 contract and 9000 - 9800 for the Shanghai Silver 10 contract [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, US Treasury yields, gold - silver ratio, yield spreads, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices [15][16][18]. 3.4 Current Week's Important Economic Data - US July PCE price index annual rate was 2.6%, in line with expectations and the previous value [28]. - US July personal spending monthly rate was 0.5%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.3% [28]. - The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the US was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3% [28]. - The revised annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the second quarter of the US was 2.5%, lower than the expected 2.6% and in line with the previous value [28]. 3.5 Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - Fed Governor Cook sued, claiming that President Trump has no right to remove her from office, which may reshape the long - established norms of the Fed's independence. European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn said that the weakening of the Fed's independence will lead to rising inflation [29]. - The US July personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slowing down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to a 1.7% decline in the cost of gasoline and other energy commodities. Year - on - year, it increased by 2.6%, the same as in June. The core PCE price index increased by 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and the year - on - year growth accelerated to 2.9%, the highest level since February [29]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, COMEX gold inventory increased by 11,260.73 kg to 1,210,730.26 kg, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,169 kg to 39,624 kg [13]. - This week, COMEX silver inventory increased by 303,116.99 kg to 16,118,840.21 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 86,873 kg to 1,195,996 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of August 26, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 209,730 contracts, an increase of 7,860 contracts from last week [13][37]. - As of August 26, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 43,930 contracts, an increase of 705 contracts from last week [13][37]. 3.8 This Week's Focus - On Tuesday (September 2), at 22:00, the US August ISM manufacturing PMI will be released [39]. - On Thursday (September 4), at 20:15, the change in the US August ADP employment number will be released [39]. - On Friday (September 5), at 20:30, the seasonally adjusted change in the US August non - farm payrolls and the US August unemployment rate will be released [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Powell's dovish speech at the central bank summit increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut. The weak July US non - farm payrolls data and the outcome of US trade negotiations led to a rebound in precious metal prices. With the US tariff policy mostly settled, concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook support the prices of precious metals. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the annual rate of the US July PCE price index [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to Powell's dovish speech at the central bank summit and increased expectations of a September interest rate cut, the price of US gold rebounded. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $3417 per ounce, up 1.05% for the week, with an upper resistance level of $3470 and a lower support level of $3350. US silver also rebounded, with a weekly gain of 3.6%, closing at $39.4 per ounce, with a lower support level of $37.7 and an upper resistance level of $40.5 [6]. 3.2 Weekly View - Powell's dovish remarks, weak July US non - farm payrolls data, and the outcome of trade negotiations contributed to the rebound in precious metal prices. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The US tariff policy is mostly settled, and concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook support precious metal prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the annual rate of the US July PCE price index [10]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yields), US Treasury yields (10 - year and 2 - year), inflation expectations, currency exchange rates (euro - dollar, pound - dollar), the US dollar index, the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields, the gold - silver ratio, the Fed's balance sheet size and its weekly changes, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but does not provide specific analyses [14][15][17][18][20][21][23][24]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, higher than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was 23.5 million, higher than the expected 22.5 million and the previous value of 22.4 million. The preliminary value of the eurozone consumer confidence index in August was - 15.5, lower than the expected - 14.9 and the previous value of - 14.7 [27]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Powell's dovish speech at the central bank summit signaled a possible 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. He also suggested that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices might be a one - time shock. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, while the service PMI slightly declined. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased to 23.5 million, the highest since June, and the number of continuing jobless claims reached 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [29]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, COMEX inventory decreased by 2,255.64 kg to 1,199,469.53 kg this week, while SHFE inventory increased by 1,110 kg to 37,455 kg. For silver, COMEX inventory increased by 29,102.81 kg to 15,815,723.22 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 32,432 kg to 1,109,123 kg [12]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of August 19, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 201,870 contracts, a decrease of 18,673 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 43,225 contracts, an increase of 1,529 contracts from last week [12][38]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday, August 26, at 20:30, the preliminary monthly rate of US durable goods orders for July will be released. On Thursday, August 28, at 20:30, the revised annualized quarterly rate of the US real GDP for the second quarter and the revised annualized quarterly rate of the US core PCE price index for the second quarter will be announced. On Friday, August 29, at 20:30, the annual rate of the US PCE price index for July and the monthly rate of US personal spending for July will be released [40].