明年周期板块如何展望？20251228 摘要 近期，北京出台了一系列放松限购的细则，主要包括以下几个方面：一是五环 内多子女家庭可以多购买一套房产；二是非京籍人群的社保年限要求下调一年； 三是不再区分首套和二套房贷利率，统一执行标准。这些政策是在中央经济工 作会议后地方响应中央号召而出台的。8 月份，北京先行放松限购，随后上海 和深圳跟进，但力度更大。目前来看，不同一线城市之间的政策力度基本拉平。 从市场效果来看，这些政策对中高端房产影响不大，但对于总价较低、位于市 区外环的刚需住房需求支撑显著。以上海为例，8 月放松限购后，低总价二手 房成交量持续改善，库存规模明显下降。因此，我们认为这些政策对市场有一 定促进作用。 九峰能源海南商业航天特燃特气配套项目一期已基本建成，服务多次火 箭发射任务，二期计划扩产以匹配海南商业航天新增工位及长期规划， 商业航天地位稳固且业务发展前景良好。 PX 和 PTA 价格上涨，PX 未来一年新增供应有限，PTA 今年进入投产真 空期，下游需求拉动明显，2026 年整体供需改善预期较强。涤纶长丝 行业自律机制成熟，大厂联合减产，价格显著回升，中长期格局良好， 关注桐昆股份、新凤 ...

证券研究报告 九丰能源 (605090 CH) 商业航天二期项目扩产巩固先发优势 华泰研究 公告点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 43.90 王玮嘉 研究员 SAC No. S0570517050002 SFC No. BEB090 黄波 研究员 huangbo@htsc.com SAC No. S0570519090003 SFC No. BQR122 李雅琳 研究员 SAC No. S0570523050003 SFC No. BTC420 2025 年 12 月 24 日│中国内地 燃气及分销 胡知* 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120002 huzhi019072@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 康琪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070105 kangqi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 12 月 23 日) | 36.70 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 25,515 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 322.52 | | 5 ...

智通财经APP讯，九丰能源(605090.SH)发布公告，为进一步保障海南商业航天发射场新增工位(三号、 四号工位)和中长期航天发射规划，并匹配后续常态化、高密度发射的潜在需求，同时满足海南文昌星 箭产业园(卫星超级工厂)的新增需求，公司积极实施海南商业航天发射场特燃特气配套项目扩能计划(本 项目二期)。公司已与文昌国际航天城管理局、文昌市人民政府签署《海南商业航天发射场特燃特气配 套项目(二期)产业投资协议书》，预计总投资约3亿元。根据相关需求情况，扩能计划拟包括液氮、液 氧、绿氢、氦气、氪气、氙气、轻烃、航天煤油等相关特燃特气生产及储运装置，进一步提高本项目特 燃特气配套供应能力，以满足快速增长的潜在市场需求。截至目前，公司正积极推进本项目(二期)所涉 及的项目用地规划与选址工作，其他相关工作同步筹备。 截至目前，公司多次与上海航天设备制造总厂有限公司(隶属中国航天科技集团有限公司第八研究院)签 署相关协议，双方在液态甲烷、液氧、液氮、氦气、氮气等产品方面达成合作，服务实施地为山东海阳 东方航天港;公司多次与中国航天科技集团商业火箭有限公司(隶属中国航天科技集团有限公司)签署相关 协议，双方在液氧、液氮、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of the commercial aerospace industry in China is becoming a significant force in building a strong aerospace nation, with over 600 companies currently in operation and a projected industry scale of 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025 [1]. Geographical and Policy Advantages - Wenchang, located in northeastern Hainan Province, is uniquely positioned as the only city in China with both "low latitude and coastal launch" characteristics, providing a significant geographical advantage for commercial aerospace development [2]. - The low latitude of the Hainan launch site can enhance rocket payload capacity by 15%, directly impacting economic benefits and market competitiveness [2]. - The coastal location facilitates the transportation of large-diameter rockets, which is a limitation for inland launch sites due to railway constraints [2]. - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port has introduced favorable policies, including zero tariffs and low tax rates, which lower operational costs and attract quality enterprises and talent [3]. Industry Growth and Projections - By 2027, the Wenchang International Aerospace City aims to achieve an operating income of 10 billion yuan, reflecting government support and market confidence in the commercial aerospace sector [4]. - The Wenchang International Aerospace City has over 700 aerospace-related enterprises, forming a complete industrial chain from rocket manufacturing to satellite development and data application [4]. Infrastructure and Technological Innovations - The Hainan commercial aerospace launch site was built in just 878 days, showcasing China's efficiency in establishing infrastructure [6]. - The launch site has achieved a high frequency of launches, with three launches occurring within 30 days, indicating a robust operational capacity [6]. - The second launch pad is designed to accommodate over 20 rocket models, with plans for additional launch pads to increase annual launch capacity to over 60 by the end of 2026 [6]. - The innovative three-plane measurement launch mode enhances launch efficiency and reduces costs [7]. Future Development and Integration - The Hainan Star Glory Aerospace company is developing a reusable rocket, the "Double Curve Three," which aims to significantly reduce launch costs through advanced technologies [9]. - The establishment of a specialized factory for rocket assembly and testing marks a significant advancement in China's commercial aerospace manufacturing capabilities [7]. - The integration of aerospace with tourism is being explored to enhance the social impact of the aerospace industry and stimulate local economic growth [10].

Core Insights - Jiufeng Energy has signed an investment agreement for the second phase of the special fuel and gas supporting project at the Wenchang International Space City [1] - The second phase expansion plan includes the production and storage of liquid nitrogen, liquid oxygen, green hydrogen, helium, krypton, xenon, light hydrocarbons, and aerospace kerosene [1] - The company aims to enhance its supply capacity for special fuels and gases to meet the rapidly growing potential market demand [1] - Jiufeng Energy is actively advancing the land approval and related preparatory work for the projects involved in the second phase expansion plan [1]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a significant period for energy transition in China, achieving notable accomplishments despite various challenges, with a focus on optimizing industrial layout and enhancing system resilience for high-quality energy development in the future [1] Group 1: Achievements in Energy Development - Energy supply capacity has been significantly enhanced, with oil production expected to reach approximately 213 million tons by 2024, and natural gas production projected to hit 246.4 billion cubic meters [2] - Coal supply security has improved, with major coal supply bases established, and over 300 million kilowatts of coal power units have undergone flexibility upgrades [2] - The total installed power generation capacity reached 3.65 billion kilowatts by mid-2025, with China leading globally in power infrastructure [3] Group 2: Acceleration of Green Energy Transition - Renewable energy has become the mainstay of power generation, with total installed capacity reaching 2.159 billion kilowatts, accounting for 59.2% of the total [4] - Nuclear power development has progressed steadily, with operational capacity reaching 60.91 million kilowatts, making China the world leader in nuclear power [4] - The ability of the power system to accommodate high proportions of renewable energy has significantly improved, with new storage capacity reaching 73.76 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [4] Group 3: Optimization of Energy Layout - Key regional energy projects have been advanced, including large-scale wind and solar bases in the northern regions and distributed photovoltaic development in eastern load centers [7] - Cross-regional energy transmission channels have been established, enhancing the capacity for clean energy transmission to eastern regions [7] - Rural energy transformation initiatives have been implemented, with over 83,000 village-level photovoltaic assistance stations established [8] Group 4: Strengthening Energy Technology Innovation - The efficiency of clean coal utilization has improved, with a 40% increase in the added value of coal conversion [9] - Breakthroughs in deep-sea oil and gas resource development have been achieved, including the construction of the world's first 100,000-ton deep-water semi-submersible production platform [9] - Significant advancements in high-voltage transmission technology have been made, with full domestic production of key equipment [9] Group 5: International Energy Cooperation - Energy cooperation with regions such as Russia and the Middle East has been deepened, enhancing energy supply security and infrastructure connectivity [10] - China's photovoltaic products have captured approximately 85% of the global market share, with numerous international renewable energy projects established [10] - Active participation in global energy governance and cooperation platforms has been emphasized, promoting collaborative efforts in addressing climate change [10]