晨 会 纪 要 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 [2025]第 184 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 10 月 10 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡 萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾 华昊 整理记录：张智珑 1.1 房地产行业（张智珑） 北京：根据 Wind 数据，受国庆假期影响，北京近一周（9.27-10.3）新房、二手房日均 成交同比小幅回落，其中二手住宅日均成交 392 套，同比增长 0.9%；新房日均成交 135 套， 同比下降 4.8%。从 8 月新政效果看，近一周新房日均成交套数较 8 月 8 日前一周增长 88%， 近一周二手房日均成交套数较新政前一周增长 4.8%，主要是国庆前三天假期网签数据下降 较多。 上海：根据 Wind 数据，上海近一周（9.27-10.3）二手房日均成交 477 套，同比增长 12%；新房日均成交 224 套，同比增长 6%，涨幅均有收窄。从新政效果来看，近一周新房 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨房地产 [Table_Title] 止跌回稳压力加大，政策阈值逐步临近 ——2025 年 1-8 月统计局房地产数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 8 月房地产开发和销售各项指标累计同比降幅均扩大，核心城市二手房价压力依旧较大，自下 而上的新一轮政策宽松逐步启动，8 月以来北京、上海、深圳陆续放松限购，后续常规政策仍 有空间，超常规政策也有较大回旋余地。标的层面，基本面主线首选库存压力小且产品力相对 突出的优质房企，弹性主线可适当下沉至边际改善型和债务重组型房企；低利率和资产端匮乏 等背景下，具备稳定现金流和潜在高股息的商业地产、物业管理和经纪等领域的龙头企业，仍 是中长线配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490522080002 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 止跌回稳压力加大，政策阈值逐步临近 2] ——2025 年 1-8 月统计局房地产数据点评 [Ta ...

Group 1 - Shenzhen has announced further relaxation of housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible residents to buy unlimited properties in specific districts, while limiting external residents to two properties without proof of one year of social insurance or tax payments [1] - The mortgage interest rates will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, indicating a more uniform approach to housing finance [1] - The city plans to adjust the housing provident fund policy, adding six new scenarios for down payment withdrawals [1] Group 2 - Huafu Securities recently released a report indicating that the Central Political Bureau's meeting in September 2024 emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, with policies such as lowering existing mortgage rates and transaction taxes being implemented [3] - The report suggests that after three consecutive years of decline in commodity housing sales area from the peak in 2021, the industry is gradually entering a bottoming phase, with increased sensitivity to policy easing [3] - There are expectations for new policies related to urban renewal monetization and land reserve, reflecting the government's commitment to stabilize transaction volumes and housing prices [3]

8月25日开始，上海放开外环外限购，并释放公积金利好，买新房可以提取作为首付，提升一定贷款额度等。 终于，上海紧跟北京步伐，开启了楼市近一年的最大政策宽松。 而在825新政出台的十天前，上海二手市场还有一个变化，上海链家悄悄的隐藏了其外网二手历史成交价格，意味着，客户在上海买卖二手将无法从这里 获得成交价参考，无法知道其最低价格。 大家普遍认为，825新政主要利好新房，对外环外的二手市场是一次不小的打击，而链家在此时隐藏了成交价或许也是为此提前埋下的伏笔。 因此，从此无法查看的二手成交价+825新政，让本就有点乱的上海外环外楼市，此时又更加扑朔迷离了。 此时的上海外环外楼市，正在发生着什么，政策真实的影响着哪类人群的决策？ 我选择外环外这三种完全不同的房源，作为市调样本实地市调，看看政策这把火，是否烧的足够火，还是温水煮青蛙... 01 现在上海外环外房子大致有这三类：那些房龄较老的动迁房和老破小为主流、次新房、一手商品房。其中最难卖的要数郊区的那些老房子了，它们要不是 动迁房，要不就是老破小、老公房，面积小，社区已经折旧，和周边次新及一手，明显不是同一个时代的产品了。 先来看看它们分别的体量，截至8月上海外 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The recent policy relaxation in Shanghai is slightly stronger than that in Beijing, which includes measures such as unlimited purchase quotas for residents outside the outer ring, equal purchase limits for single/divorced adults and families, and increased public housing fund loan limits [1][2] - The policy is expected to stimulate demand, particularly benefiting first-time buyers and non-local buyers, thereby improving market performance [2][3] - The government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market is evident, with expectations for further supportive policies if current measures do not yield satisfactory results [3] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - Shanghai's new policies include: 1) Unlimited purchase quotas for residents outside the outer ring 2) Equal purchase limits for single and divorced individuals 3) No distinction between first and second home loan interest rates 4) Increased public housing fund loan limits and the ability to use these funds for down payments without affecting loan limits 5) Temporary exemption from property tax for non-local families purchasing their first home [1][2] Market Impact - The policy changes are expected to enhance market activity, particularly for non-local buyers and the new housing market, as they lower barriers to entry [2] - High-frequency data shows that the new and second-hand housing markets are still under pressure, with significant year-on-year declines in transaction volumes [2] Future Outlook - The report indicates a clear direction for the industry to stabilize and recover, with the recent policies serving as a positive signal to the market [3] - The recommendation includes focusing on leading companies in the second-hand housing transaction sector and quality real estate firms, suggesting a strategic adjustment based on the effectiveness of the new policies [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and release improvement demand through urban renewal and the renovation of old housing [1] - It anticipates a new round of policy easing in the real estate sector due to increased downward pressure on housing prices in core cities and a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's stance [1] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are reversing their difficulties, such as China Vanke and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition intensity [1] Sales Review (8.16-8.22) - The total number of transactions in 32 monitored cities reached 14,498 units, a week-on-week increase of 20.4%; cumulative transactions for 2025 are 521,000 units, down 6.7% year-on-year [2][14] - In first-tier cities, transactions totaled 3,626 units, up 7.7% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 148,000 units for 2025, down 0.5% year-on-year [2][15] - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 9,303 units, a week-on-week increase of 29.5%, with a cumulative total of 312,000 units for 2025, down 9.4% year-on-year [2][15] - Third-tier cities recorded 1,569 transactions, up 5.1% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 61,000 units for 2025, down 6.7% year-on-year [2][15] Land Supply (8.11-8.17) - The planned construction area for residential land supply in 100 cities is 7.45 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 14.368 million square meters for 2025, down 15.6% year-on-year [3][39] - The average floor price for land supply in 100 cities is 3,519 yuan per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 4,165 yuan per square meter, down 12.4% month-on-month and 15.6% year-on-year [3][41] Land Transactions (8.11-8.17) - The planned construction area for residential land transactions in 100 cities is 3.92 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 12.213 million square meters for 2025, up 4.2% year-on-year [4][64] - The average transaction floor price for residential land in 100 cities is 5,465 yuan per square meter, up 15.2% month-on-month and 18.6% year-on-year, with an overall premium rate of 11.7% [4][66]

近日，碧桂园发布公告，公司就境外债务重组建议已与银行协调委员会协定主要条款，协调委员会占现 有银团贷款本金总额的49%，其成员已加入重组支持协议，或正履行内部程序以取得加入批准。碧桂园 同时表示，已获得持有大量现有债务的债权人大力支持，公司正与项目小组及协调委员会就正式文件紧 密合作，力争在2025年年底前完成建议重组。 进入下半年，多家房企的债务重组取得积极进展。据中指研究院的统计，截至2025年8月，完成境内及 境外债重组的企业有融创、富力、奥园、远洋、时代中国、龙光等房企。境外债重组获批的企业有旭 辉、佳兆业、禹洲地产、世茂、碧桂园等。截至2025年8月，共有20家出险房企债务重组或重整计划获 批准，化债总规模突破1.2万亿元。 8月22日，碧桂园在港交所公告，预计截至2025年6月30日止半年度的期内亏损介乎约185亿元至215亿 元，预计期内亏损主要是由于房地产开发项目结算规模下降，毛利率仍处低位以及物业项目的资产减值 增加所致。 据悉，集团保持生产经营稳定，通过执行极限收支的策略，高效利用资源，并建立多样化的动态机制， 强化计划运营管理体系。在报告期内，本集团连同其合资企业和联营公司累计完成交付房 ...

近段时间，房企财报季进入高峰期。 8月22日，碧桂园在港交所公告，预计截至2025年6月30日止半年度的期内亏损介乎约185亿元至215亿元， 预计期内亏损主要是由于房地产开发项目结算规模下降，毛利率仍处低位以及物业项目的资产减值增加所 致。 据悉，集团保持生产经营稳定，通过执行极限收支的策略，高效利用资源，并建立多样化的动态机制，强化 计划运营管理体系。在报告期内，本集团连同其合资企业和联营公司累计完成交付房屋约7.4万套。同时，公 司高度重视债务风险化解，通过积极主动与各利益相关方沟通，推动包括境外债务的整体重组、债务期限的 合理延长以及融资成本的适度降低等多种主动债务管理举措，致力于逐步搭建长期及可持续的健康的资本结 构。 近日，碧桂园发布公告，公司就境外债务重组建议已与银行协调委员会协定主要条款，协调委员会占现有银 团贷款本金总额的49%，其成员已加入重组支持协议，或正履行内部程序以取得加入批准。碧桂园同时表 示，已获得持有大量现有债务的债权人大力支持，公司正与项目小组及协调委员会就正式文件紧密合作，力 争在2025年年底前完成建议重组。 进入下半年，多家房企的债务重组取得积极进展。据中指研究院的统计 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - Since Q2 of this year, the pressure on second-hand housing prices in core cities has increased, while first-hand housing prices and the land market remain relatively hot, leading to a significant disparity between the first and second-hand markets. The report highlights three main points: 1) Core cities face substantial downward pressure on second-hand housing prices 2) The process of price recovery for new homes in core areas is not yet over 3) The pressure to stabilize prices is increasing, with a new round of policy easing expected [2][5][9] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 3.53% this week, with an excess return of +1.16% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 7th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 4.96%, with an excess return of -1.83% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 26th out of 32 [6][16] Policy Updates - Recent policy optimizations include a unified down payment ratio of 15% for housing provident fund loans in Suzhou and Tianjin, and Hainan's initiative to acquire existing homes for affordable housing and relocation purposes [7][20] Sales Data - The sales data indicates a significant seasonal decline, but the year-on-year performance for second-hand transactions remains relatively stable due to a low base. For instance, the new home transaction area in 37 cities saw a four-week rolling year-on-year decline of 17.9%, while second-hand homes showed a slight year-on-year change of 0.0% [8][21] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the contrasting trends in first and second-hand housing prices, emphasizing that core cities are experiencing a potential correction in second-hand prices, while new homes are expected to see a price recovery due to previously strict price controls [9][10]

Group 1: Debt Restructuring Progress - Several real estate companies have made positive progress in debt restructuring, with Country Garden agreeing to key restructuring conditions requested by bank creditors [1] - Country Garden has reached an agreement with a bondholder special committee on a compensation payment of $178 million to the bank coordination committee, which consists of seven banks holding 48% of the existing syndicated loans [1] - As of June 30, over 75% of the holders of existing public notes have joined the restructuring support agreement, indicating strong creditor backing for the restructuring efforts [1] Group 2: Industry Trends and Financing Environment - The debt restructuring process for distressed real estate companies is shifting from extension to accelerated debt reduction, with over ten companies, including Sunac and R&F, having received approval for debt restructuring or reorganization [2] - The total scale of overseas debt for real estate companies has significantly decreased from its peak, with over 100 billion yuan remaining due by 2025, indicating a reduction in overseas debt risk [2] - Despite favorable policies easing liquidity pressure for real estate companies, financing remains concentrated among leading firms, necessitating faster policy implementation and market-driven solutions for distressed companies [2] Group 3: Sales and Financing Outlook - Real estate companies are expected to face significant sales pressure in the second half of the year, with potential improvements contingent on stronger policy support [3] - The financing environment for real estate companies is expected to remain stable in the second half, with no further deterioration, although substantial growth in financing scale is unlikely [3]