明年周期板块如何展望？20251228 摘要 近期，北京出台了一系列放松限购的细则，主要包括以下几个方面：一是五环 内多子女家庭可以多购买一套房产；二是非京籍人群的社保年限要求下调一年； 三是不再区分首套和二套房贷利率，统一执行标准。这些政策是在中央经济工 作会议后地方响应中央号召而出台的。8 月份，北京先行放松限购，随后上海 和深圳跟进，但力度更大。目前来看，不同一线城市之间的政策力度基本拉平。 从市场效果来看，这些政策对中高端房产影响不大，但对于总价较低、位于市 区外环的刚需住房需求支撑显著。以上海为例，8 月放松限购后，低总价二手 房成交量持续改善，库存规模明显下降。因此，我们认为这些政策对市场有一 定促进作用。 九峰能源海南商业航天特燃特气配套项目一期已基本建成，服务多次火 箭发射任务，二期计划扩产以匹配海南商业航天新增工位及长期规划， 商业航天地位稳固且业务发展前景良好。 PX 和 PTA 价格上涨，PX 未来一年新增供应有限，PTA 今年进入投产真 空期，下游需求拉动明显，2026 年整体供需改善预期较强。涤纶长丝 行业自律机制成熟，大厂联合减产，价格显著回升，中长期格局良好， 关注桐昆股份、新凤 ...

展望2026年，汤戈表示，A股盈利增速和ROE水平有望延续修复态势，业绩的增长也将消化一部分估 值，股票投资有望继续成为配置优选。期待居民储蓄能够更显著地向股市转移。 从产业角度，汤戈持续看好锂电池、电力设备、PCB、半导体存储等方向，尤其是以固态电池为代表的 新质生产力赛道。这些领域或受益于AI技术迭代，或得益于能源领域的需求和政策变化，均是大行业 中有明确驱动的方向。同时，其认为2026年市场投资机会将进一步扩大，并将继续秉持深度研究、精选 个股的思路，积极把握结构性机遇。 本报讯(记者昌校宇)2026年即将到来，如何为来年市场做好布局？12月26日，以"变局创新"为主题的方 正富邦基金2026年投资策略会在北京举行。方正富邦基金首席投资官汤戈在会上发表题为《温故求新， 探知2026》的主旨演讲时表示，以产业趋势的视角探寻2026年投资机会。 ...

可能有朋友会问，帮主，这是不是全球科技股要凉的信号？别急，做了20年财经记者，我最清楚一点：短期波动就像天气变化，时而晴时而雨，但中长线投 资看的是"气候趋势"。你看，就在美股科技股跌跌不休的时候，谷歌直接扔出了王炸——最强大的AI模型Gemini 3，不仅推理能力大突破，还当天就装进了 谷歌搜索里，编程、图像生成样样在行。百度也不示弱，第三季度AI云稳健增长，萝卜快跑都跑到瑞士去了，智能体和数字人还赚了不少真金白银。这说 明啥？科技股的波动是暂时的，但AI技术迭代的浪潮是挡不住的，短期的恐慌抛售，反而可能给中长线投资者留了"捡漏"的窗口。 再看咱们国内的消息，也有不少让人安心的信号。北京12部门联合出台了金融支持消费的方案，要从信贷、债券、股权融资多方面发力，支持住宿餐饮、文 旅体育、养老这些领域，目标是到2030年建成多元化消费金融服务体系。可能有朋友觉得这是"远水"，但中长线投资看的就是政策托底的方向——消费是经 济的压舱石，现在政策加码，那些真正有竞争力的消费类企业，未来的成长空间肯定错不了。还有个大亮点，小米汽车首次实现单季盈利，赚了7个亿，智 能电动汽车收入同比暴涨超199%，眼看就要完成全年交付 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of various commodity prices in October, highlighting the resilience of the non-ferrous metals sector amid macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply disruptions from Indonesia [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The BPI index recorded 870 points as of October 30, reflecting a 0.6% increase from the end of September, with energy prices down 0.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 2.2% month-on-month [1][4]. - In the domestic market, prices of thermal coal and coking coal futures saw significant increases of 9.2% and 19.1% respectively, while chemical products, cement, and glass prices showed notable declines of -1.9%, -3.1%, and -10.6% respectively [8][10]. - The South China comprehensive index remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year average decrease of 0.3% compared to a previous increase of 6.0% [8]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index in major cities continued to adjust, with declines of -1.2%, -0.7%, -1.7%, and -0.9% in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen respectively as of October 20 [10]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - Prices in emerging sectors such as storage chips and lithium carbonate remained strong, while the photovoltaic industry saw a price decline, with the photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) down 0.5% month-on-month [2][11]. - The DXI index, representing the semiconductor (DRAM) industry, surged by 93.5% month-on-month, indicating a robust outlook for the memory sector [2][11]. Group 4: Shipping and Logistics - In the export shipping sector, the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) fell by 6.1% month-on-month, while the WCID container freight indices for routes to Los Angeles and New York increased by 5.5% and 8.9% respectively [13]. - The average value of the road logistics price index showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, indicating a gradual decline from the peak observed in June [15]. Group 5: Food Prices - Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with the average wholesale price of pork declining by 7.8% and key vegetable prices rising by 13.6% month-on-month [3][15].

Group 1 - Power generation data for coal-fired plants showed a significant year-on-year decline of 14.8% as of September 11, marking the lowest level of the year, compared to a decline of 1.3% in August [1][6][7] - Industrial operating rates exhibited mixed trends, with the overall change being relatively stable compared to August; the operating rate for blast furnaces increased by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate for coke enterprises rose by 7.5 percentage points [2][8] - Key steel production from major steel mills showed a slight month-on-month decline, with rebar production averaging 2.153 million tons per day, down 1.1% month-on-month [3][9] Group 2 - Infrastructure funding availability stabilized, with the funding rate for construction sites reaching 59.39% as of September 16, a month-on-month increase of 0.17 percentage points [4][11] - High temperatures led to a relative decline in residents' mobility, with metro passenger volume in major cities averaging 60.24 million trips, down 3.5% month-on-month [5][12] - Real estate sales remained weak on a month-on-month basis, but showed improvement year-on-year, with average daily transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 6.3% compared to the same period last year [6][15][16] Group 3 - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year decline of 4% from September 1 to 14, while wholesale sales also decreased by 3% [7][19] - Home appliance sales growth slowed down significantly, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing declines of 33.9% to 0.3% year-on-year [8][20] - Container throughput at domestic ports increased by 11.7% year-on-year from September 1 to 14, indicating strong export resilience [9][21]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yao Wang Technology, has terminated two major fundraising projects totaling nearly 1.3 billion yuan after four years of progress, citing the rapid evolution of AI technology as a reason for the shift in business focus [1][2]. Fundraising and Project Termination - On September 9, Yao Wang Technology announced the termination of the "YOWANT Digital Marketing Cloud Platform Construction" and "Innovation Technology Research Institute Construction" projects, reallocating the remaining 766 million yuan to supplement working capital [1][2]. - In October 2021, the company raised 2.972 billion yuan through a private placement, with 839 million yuan allocated for working capital and loan repayment, 906 million yuan for the YOWANT project, 791 million yuan for social e-commerce ecosystem construction, and 385 million yuan for the research institute [2]. Financial Performance and Losses - From 2021 to 2024, the company reported continuous significant losses, with a total loss of 3.269 billion yuan over four and a half years [9]. - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 36.32% year-on-year, with a net loss of 253 million yuan, marking a 15.60% increase in losses compared to the previous year [8]. Project Investment Details - As of August 31, 2025, the YOWANT project had received a cumulative investment of 418 million yuan, while the research institute project had received 127 million yuan, primarily for infrastructure and equipment [5][8]. - The company indicated that the original hardware and software plans for the terminated projects became obsolete due to advancements in AI algorithms and computing architecture [3][5]. Business Transformation Challenges - Yao Wang Technology, originally a traditional women's shoe company, has struggled with its transformation into the social e-commerce sector, failing to achieve profitability since the transition [8][9]. - The company has indicated a shift in strategy, moving towards a holding or equity participation model for innovative businesses while optimizing organizational efficiency through AI technology [8].