广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 10月生意社BPI小幅回升。有色金属的产业"叙事"仍在延续，叠加美联储降息和印尼供给扰动，有色 指数表现相对偏强。截至10月30日，生意社BPI指数录得870点，相较9月末环比回升0.6%。其中能源、有 色价格（月环比）分别为-0.6%、2.2%。 第二， 10月内需定价大宗商品涨跌互现。其中动力煤、焦煤期货价涨幅靠前，月环比涨幅分别录得9.2%、 19.1%； 螺 纹 钢 期 货 价 格 环 比 上 涨 0.3%； 化 工 产 品 、 水 泥 、 玻 璃 价 格 指 数 仍 明 显 偏 弱 ， 月 环 比-1.9%、-3.1%、-10.6%。南华综合指数月末值环比持平；月均值同比录得-0.3%（前值6.0%）。 第三， 一线城市房价多数延续调整。截至10月20日（最新数据），四大一线城市二手房挂牌价格指数相较9 月最后一周环比录得-1.2%、-0.7%、-1.7%、-0.9% 。 第四， 存储芯片、碳酸锂等新兴产业链价格偏强，光伏行业价格回落。10月光伏行业综合指数（SPI）环比 回 落 0.5% （ ...

Group 1 - Power generation data for coal-fired plants showed a significant year-on-year decline of 14.8% as of September 11, marking the lowest level of the year, compared to a decline of 1.3% in August [1][6][7] - Industrial operating rates exhibited mixed trends, with the overall change being relatively stable compared to August; the operating rate for blast furnaces increased by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate for coke enterprises rose by 7.5 percentage points [2][8] - Key steel production from major steel mills showed a slight month-on-month decline, with rebar production averaging 2.153 million tons per day, down 1.1% month-on-month [3][9] Group 2 - Infrastructure funding availability stabilized, with the funding rate for construction sites reaching 59.39% as of September 16, a month-on-month increase of 0.17 percentage points [4][11] - High temperatures led to a relative decline in residents' mobility, with metro passenger volume in major cities averaging 60.24 million trips, down 3.5% month-on-month [5][12] - Real estate sales remained weak on a month-on-month basis, but showed improvement year-on-year, with average daily transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 6.3% compared to the same period last year [6][15][16] Group 3 - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year decline of 4% from September 1 to 14, while wholesale sales also decreased by 3% [7][19] - Home appliance sales growth slowed down significantly, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing declines of 33.9% to 0.3% year-on-year [8][20] - Container throughput at domestic ports increased by 11.7% year-on-year from September 1 to 14, indicating strong export resilience [9][21]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yao Wang Technology, has terminated two major fundraising projects totaling nearly 1.3 billion yuan after four years of progress, citing the rapid evolution of AI technology as a reason for the shift in business focus [1][2]. Fundraising and Project Termination - On September 9, Yao Wang Technology announced the termination of the "YOWANT Digital Marketing Cloud Platform Construction" and "Innovation Technology Research Institute Construction" projects, reallocating the remaining 766 million yuan to supplement working capital [1][2]. - In October 2021, the company raised 2.972 billion yuan through a private placement, with 839 million yuan allocated for working capital and loan repayment, 906 million yuan for the YOWANT project, 791 million yuan for social e-commerce ecosystem construction, and 385 million yuan for the research institute [2]. Financial Performance and Losses - From 2021 to 2024, the company reported continuous significant losses, with a total loss of 3.269 billion yuan over four and a half years [9]. - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 36.32% year-on-year, with a net loss of 253 million yuan, marking a 15.60% increase in losses compared to the previous year [8]. Project Investment Details - As of August 31, 2025, the YOWANT project had received a cumulative investment of 418 million yuan, while the research institute project had received 127 million yuan, primarily for infrastructure and equipment [5][8]. - The company indicated that the original hardware and software plans for the terminated projects became obsolete due to advancements in AI algorithms and computing architecture [3][5]. Business Transformation Challenges - Yao Wang Technology, originally a traditional women's shoe company, has struggled with its transformation into the social e-commerce sector, failing to achieve profitability since the transition [8][9]. - The company has indicated a shift in strategy, moving towards a holding or equity participation model for innovative businesses while optimizing organizational efficiency through AI technology [8].