Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The short-term pressure on the liquor industry does not change its long-term value, and new consumption is expected to regain market prominence [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 0.6% from August 4 to August 8, ranking 23rd among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.6 percentage points [12][14] - The snack food sector, soft drinks, and meat products showed relatively strong performance with increases of 3.9%, 3.0%, and 2.7% respectively [12][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor sector faced significant challenges in Q2 due to the ongoing impact of the "ban on alcohol" and a struggling restaurant industry, leading to slower cash flow and increased inventory for liquor companies [4][12] - Market expectations for the liquor sector are currently low, with low valuations and a favorable chip structure, indicating potential for recovery post-Mid-Autumn Festival [4][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the broader market, with the index rising by 0.6% while the leading sub-sectors were snacks, soft drinks, and meat products [12][14] - Notable individual stock performances included ST Xifa, Ximai Food, and Jinzi Ham leading in gains, while *ST Yedao, Ketaobiology, and Beiyinmei faced declines [12][14] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of fresh milk at 3.0 CNY/kg, down 5.6% year-on-year, while pork prices were 20.4 CNY/kg, down 21.2% year-on-year [19][26] - The price of full-fat milk powder increased by 23.1% year-on-year, indicating a mixed trend in dairy prices [23] Liquor Industry News - The launch of the commemorative Maotai Five-Star trademark liquor sold out quickly, generating sales of 179 million CNY [40] - New product releases, such as the "Bull Market" super beer by Zhenjiu Lidu, highlight innovation in the liquor sector [39] Memorandum - Attention is drawn to the upcoming half-year report from Guizhou Maotai on August 13, which is expected to provide further insights into the company's performance [41][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor industry is gradually releasing pressure from distribution channels, indicating a potential for future growth. It suggests focusing on three main lines: leading brands, high-certainty regional liquors, and elastic stocks benefiting from recovery and increased risk appetite [1][2]. - The snack sector shows significant growth potential, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer being highlighted for their strong performance. The report emphasizes the importance of channel leadership and growth potential in selecting stocks [3][6]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report notes that the liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment, shifting from scale growth to high-quality development. It emphasizes the importance of brand strength and strategic initiatives to capture new consumer trends [2]. - The expected revenue for Zhenjiu Lidong in H1 2025 is projected to be between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% due to economic uncertainties and policy impacts [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The beer segment shows promising results, with Huiquan Brewery reporting a revenue of 351 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, and a net profit of 40 million yuan, up 25.52% [3]. - Unified Enterprises China achieved a revenue of 17.087 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a 10.6% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 1.287 billion yuan, up 33.2% [3]. Snack Sector - The snack sector is highlighted for its recovery in stock prices, with expectations for continued high growth due to new product launches and channel transformations. The report notes a narrowing decline in raw milk prices, which may positively impact the dairy segment [6].