Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported a stable performance in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [2] Financial Performance - The revenue from Moutai liquor reached 75.589 billion yuan, while series liquor generated 13.763 billion yuan [3] - Direct sales and wholesale agents contributed 40.009 billion yuan and 49.343 billion yuan to revenue, respectively [3] Market Dynamics - Guizhou Moutai is navigating a dual challenge of macroeconomic cycles and industry adjustments, but believes favorable factors outweigh the challenges [2] - The company has increased its domestic distributors by 137, totaling 2,280, while foreign distributors rose by 11, reaching 115 [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on transforming from a product-centered to a consumer-centered approach, emphasizing the importance of service alongside product offerings [3][4] - Guizhou Moutai is enhancing its marketing strategies by conducting market research and optimizing its operational systems to boost market confidence [2] Product Development - The launch of the 70th anniversary commemorative product on the iMoutai platform sold out quickly, generating sales of 179 million yuan from 25,568 bottles [5] - The company is leveraging its cultural IP products to enhance brand value and sales performance, appealing to younger consumers and diversifying its market approach [5]

Core Insights - The launch of Moutai's Five-Star Trademark Commemorative Liquor has generated significant market attention due to its rising prices and limited availability [1][2] Pricing and Market Dynamics - Since its launch on August 8, the market circulation price of Moutai's Five-Star Trademark Commemorative Liquor has increased daily by 500 to 1200 yuan per bottle, reaching 11,000 yuan per bottle on August 12 [1] - On August 12, the market circulation price was reported at 8,800 yuan per bottle, an increase of 700 yuan from the previous day [1] - The initial retail price set by Moutai was 7,000 yuan per bottle, with a limited release of 25,568 bottles, corresponding to the 70-year anniversary of the trademark [1] Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - There is a high demand for the liquor, with many consumers willing to pay above the retail price, but actual transactions are limited due to the unique identity codes assigned to each bottle [2] - Some resellers, referred to as "scalpers," are attempting to sell the liquor at prices between 11,500 and 12,000 yuan per bottle, but are struggling to find buyers [2] - The disparity between high asking prices and low transaction volumes indicates a speculative market environment, despite the perceived popularity of the product [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The short-term pressure on the liquor industry does not change its long-term value, and new consumption is expected to regain market prominence [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 0.6% from August 4 to August 8, ranking 23rd among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.6 percentage points [12][14] - The snack food sector, soft drinks, and meat products showed relatively strong performance with increases of 3.9%, 3.0%, and 2.7% respectively [12][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor sector faced significant challenges in Q2 due to the ongoing impact of the "ban on alcohol" and a struggling restaurant industry, leading to slower cash flow and increased inventory for liquor companies [4][12] - Market expectations for the liquor sector are currently low, with low valuations and a favorable chip structure, indicating potential for recovery post-Mid-Autumn Festival [4][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the broader market, with the index rising by 0.6% while the leading sub-sectors were snacks, soft drinks, and meat products [12][14] - Notable individual stock performances included ST Xifa, Ximai Food, and Jinzi Ham leading in gains, while *ST Yedao, Ketaobiology, and Beiyinmei faced declines [12][14] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of fresh milk at 3.0 CNY/kg, down 5.6% year-on-year, while pork prices were 20.4 CNY/kg, down 21.2% year-on-year [19][26] - The price of full-fat milk powder increased by 23.1% year-on-year, indicating a mixed trend in dairy prices [23] Liquor Industry News - The launch of the commemorative Maotai Five-Star trademark liquor sold out quickly, generating sales of 179 million CNY [40] - New product releases, such as the "Bull Market" super beer by Zhenjiu Lidu, highlight innovation in the liquor sector [39] Memorandum - Attention is drawn to the upcoming half-year report from Guizhou Maotai on August 13, which is expected to provide further insights into the company's performance [41][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor industry is gradually releasing pressure from distribution channels, indicating a potential for future growth. It suggests focusing on three main lines: leading brands, high-certainty regional liquors, and elastic stocks benefiting from recovery and increased risk appetite [1][2]. - The snack sector shows significant growth potential, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer being highlighted for their strong performance. The report emphasizes the importance of channel leadership and growth potential in selecting stocks [3][6]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report notes that the liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment, shifting from scale growth to high-quality development. It emphasizes the importance of brand strength and strategic initiatives to capture new consumer trends [2]. - The expected revenue for Zhenjiu Lidong in H1 2025 is projected to be between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% due to economic uncertainties and policy impacts [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The beer segment shows promising results, with Huiquan Brewery reporting a revenue of 351 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, and a net profit of 40 million yuan, up 25.52% [3]. - Unified Enterprises China achieved a revenue of 17.087 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a 10.6% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 1.287 billion yuan, up 33.2% [3]. Snack Sector - The snack sector is highlighted for its recovery in stock prices, with expectations for continued high growth due to new product launches and channel transformations. The report notes a narrowing decline in raw milk prices, which may positively impact the dairy segment [6].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai announced the launch of a limited edition Moutai Five-Star trademark commemorative liquor, set to go live on the iMoutai platform on August 8, with significant interest from resellers [1][4]. Group 1 - The commemorative liquor is limited to 25,568 bottles, marking the 70th anniversary of the "Five-Star" trademark, with each bottle featuring a unique identity code corresponding to the days from May 1, 1954, to April 30, 2024 [4]. - The expected price for the Moutai Five-Star commemorative liquor is around 7,000 yuan per bottle [4]. - Resellers anticipate potential profit margins, with speculation that prices could exceed 10,000 yuan if demand surges, although prices may eventually decline [6]. Group 2 - Previous limited edition Moutai products, such as the scattered flower flying Moutai, initially priced at 2,699 yuan, saw market prices peak at 15,000 yuan before falling below 3,000 yuan due to increased supply [6]. - The overall sentiment in the white liquor market is currently low, with expectations for the Moutai Five-Star commemorative liquor not being particularly high due to decreased collector interest [6]. - Current prices for other Moutai products on the iMoutai platform are lower than official prices, indicating a trend of declining market values [6].