Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities projects that the adjusted net profit of Hu Shang A Yi (02589) will reach 560 million, 640 million, and 760 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively, indicating a clear growth strategy and strong resilience against economic cycles [1][6]. Group 1: Company Growth and Strategy - Hu Shang A Yi has become the second brand in the mid-priced ready-to-drink tea segment to reach 10,000 stores since its establishment in 2013, benefiting from the takeout market starting in May 2025 [2][6]. - The company has improved its user acquisition and retention capabilities, with expectations for its main brand to maintain resilience in same-store performance [2][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Expansion - Hu Shang A Yi holds a significant market position in Northern China, with 4,784 stores by the end of 2024, which is approximately 1,900 more than the second-ranked brand, capturing 52.1% of the market share [7]. - The investment model is characterized by low initial costs for franchisees, with an average startup cost of 275,000 yuan, lower than the industry average of 350,000 yuan, leading to a 98% renewal rate among franchisees in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Product Innovation and Consumer Engagement - The company actively responds to consumer demands by launching 136 new products in the first half of 2025, achieving 15.8 million active members and a quarterly repurchase rate of 40.6% [8]. - In 2025, Hu Shang A Yi is restructuring its coffee product line, anticipating that coffee will contribute to same-store sales growth alongside baked goods [8]. Group 4: Tea Waterfall and International Expansion - The Tea Waterfall brand, priced below 10 yuan, has gained popularity in towns and universities, with over 1,000 signed and operating stores [11]. - Hu Shang A Yi has opened stores in the United States and South Korea, focusing on economically developed countries, with positive performance reported [11].

沪上阿姨是北方中价现制茶饮门店数最多品牌，截至24年底北方门店数4784家(23年比排名第二的品牌 多约1900家)，占比52.1%(其他中价TOP5品牌不超30%)。投资模型低投入、低成本，让加盟商能在合理 周期内回本，沪上阿姨门店初始投入约27.5万元，低于中价现制茶饮平均的35万元，24年加盟商续签率 98%，新开店中老加盟商开店比例为48.8%，侧面印证模型较为成功。 东方茶+西方咖覆盖全时段全饮品 公司把握消费者需求积极推新，25H1推出136款新品，季度活跃会员1580万人，季度复购率40.6%。拓 品类方面，25年公司重新梳理咖啡品类，沪上阿姨、茶瀑布菜单中均上新咖啡，该行预计咖啡有望结合 烘焙等品类贡献同店销售增量。 （原标题：广发证券：予沪上阿姨(02589)"买入"评级 合理价值121.32港元） 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，预计沪上阿姨(02589)25-27年经调整净利润分别为5.6/6.4/7.6 亿元。公司发展策略清晰，一体(沪上阿姨中国区)基本盘快速成长，拓店、同店均有空间，两翼(茶瀑 布、海外区)协同补充，覆盖更多客群，具备更强的抗周期能力。参考可比公司，给予公司2 ...

消息面上，沪上阿姨此前发布公告，将于2026年2月4日派发2025年中期股息每10股7.43755港元。国泰 海通证券发布研报称，沪上阿姨实施"一体两翼"战略，其中"一体"为"沪上阿姨"主品牌，测算国内开店 空间1.8万家；"两翼"分别为"茶瀑布"和海外市场，测算"茶瀑布"国内开店空间超5000家；海外目前进军 马来西亚和美国，处于发展初期，成长潜力较大。 沪上阿姨(02589)午后急升逾7%，截至发稿，涨3.03%，报95.25港元，成交额3685.74万港元。 ...

消息面上，沪上阿姨此前发布公告，将于2026年2月4日派发2025年中期股息每10股7.43755港元。国泰 海通证券发布研报称，沪上阿姨实施"一体两翼"战略，其中"一体"为"沪上阿姨"主品牌，测算国内开店 空间1.8万家；"两翼"分别为"茶瀑布"和海外市场，测算"茶瀑布"国内开店空间超5000家；海外目前进军 马来西亚和美国，处于发展初期，成长潜力较大。 智通财经APP获悉，沪上阿姨(02589)午后急升逾7%，截至发稿，涨3.03%，报95.25港元，成交额 3685.74万港元。 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the company, predicting revenues of 4.132 billion, 4.685 billion, and 5.354 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 26%, 13%, and 14% respectively [1] - The adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 556 million, 624 million, and 712 million RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 33%, 12%, and 14% respectively [1] - The company operates multiple brands, including "沪上阿姨" (Hushang Aunt), "茶瀑布" (Tea Waterfall), and "沪咖" (Hushang Coffee), targeting different consumer segments and price points [2] Group 2: Market Potential - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China has significant growth potential, with increasing consumption rates and a rising chain store penetration [2] - The company has a projected store opening potential of 18,000 for its main brand and over 5,000 for "茶瀑布" (Tea Waterfall), with international expansion into Malaysia and the USA [2] - The coffee segment is expected to enhance store efficiency as it integrates into the main brand [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The report highlights the increasing chain store advantage over independent tea shops, suggesting a trend towards consolidation in the tea beverage industry [2] - The report notes that the ready-to-drink beverage market is experiencing a surge in demand due to the growth of delivery services [2] - The digital RMB is positioned as a key driver for the internationalization of the RMB, with a projected transaction volume of 52.8 to 223.6 trillion RMB by 2030 [7] Group 4: Financial Insights - The company is valued at a target market cap of 12.2 billion HKD, with a target price of 116.56 HKD based on a 20x PE ratio for adjusted net profit in 2025 [1] - The report indicates that the digital RMB will benefit upstream technology support, midstream system adaptation, and downstream terminal deployment, suggesting broad growth potential across the industry [8]

中国人均现制饮品消费量提升潜力大，下沉市场是主要增长来源。外卖大战引爆短期需求，加快现制饮 品渗透率提升进程。中国现制茶饮行业竞争激烈，格局分散，沪上阿姨在北方市场领先。展望未来，连 锁品牌相比独立茶饮店更具规模、供应链、运营优势，茶饮行业连锁化率呈提升趋势，长尾品牌加速出 清。 多品牌扩大客群覆盖，咖啡品类提升店效 国泰海通证券发布研报称，首次覆盖给予沪上阿姨(02589)"增持"评级，目标价116.56港元，沪上阿姨旗 下拥有"沪上阿姨""茶瀑布"和"沪咖"三大品牌，形成覆盖不同价格带与消费群体的品牌矩阵。公司凭借 高效的研发与加盟模式快速拓展市场，尤其在北方具备优势。公司实施"一体两翼"战略，多品牌开店潜 力较大。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 现制饮品头部企业，打造品牌矩阵、通过加盟模式拓展全国市场 公司旗下有现制茶饮品牌"沪上阿姨"、"茶瀑布"与现磨咖啡品牌"沪咖"，定位不同品类、差异化价格 带，通过三大品牌概念构建了覆盖不同消费群体与市场层级的立体化产品矩阵。公司产品研发体系成 熟，上新频率行业领先，高效响应市场需求，引领更健康、更美味的现制饮品消费潮流。 现制饮品市场空间广阔，连锁化率持续提升 公 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Hu Shang A Yi (02589) has seen a significant stock price increase, rising over 20% and currently trading at 106.1 HKD with a transaction volume of 48.31 million HKD [1] - The company announced a ten-year H-share incentive plan, with a cap of 5% of the total share capital, aimed at incentivizing core talent through restricted stock [1] - As of now, Hu Shang A Yi has reached a total of 10,739 stores nationwide, successfully entering the "10,000-store club" [1] Group 2 - On October 17, the celebrity Mao Bu Yi became the spokesperson for Hu Shang A Yi's new tea brand, Cha Pu Bu [1] - The new brand "Cha Pu Bu" will officially launch in March 2024, targeting Generation Z and student demographics, focusing on products priced below 10 HKD, creating a distinct positioning from the main brand [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of the newly listed tea beverage company, Hu Shang A Yi, which reported a revenue of 1.818 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit of 203 million yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The company's gross profit margin for the first half of the year was 31.4%, showing no significant fluctuation compared to the same period last year [1] - Three out of four major expenses for the company decreased during the first half of the year, including a 4.9% decline in sales and marketing expenses, a 1.1% decrease in research and development expenses, and a 37.8% reduction in financial costs, indicating a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] Group 2 - As of the end of June, Hu Shang A Yi operated a total of 9,436 stores across its three brands, with 24 being directly operated stores and 9,412 franchise stores [1] - The growth in store numbers during the first half of the year was primarily driven by franchise stores, which net increased by 260 stores, while the number of directly operated stores remained unchanged [2] - The company has a limited international presence, with only one self-operated store opened in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in February 2024 [2] - The board of directors proposed a mid-term dividend of 6.76 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling a proposed distribution of 71.12 million yuan [2]