Group 1: Company Overview - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the company, predicting revenues of 4.132 billion, 4.685 billion, and 5.354 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 26%, 13%, and 14% respectively [1] - The adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 556 million, 624 million, and 712 million RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 33%, 12%, and 14% respectively [1] - The company operates multiple brands, including "沪上阿姨" (Hushang Aunt), "茶瀑布" (Tea Waterfall), and "沪咖" (Hushang Coffee), targeting different consumer segments and price points [2] Group 2: Market Potential - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China has significant growth potential, with increasing consumption rates and a rising chain store penetration [2] - The company has a projected store opening potential of 18,000 for its main brand and over 5,000 for "茶瀑布" (Tea Waterfall), with international expansion into Malaysia and the USA [2] - The coffee segment is expected to enhance store efficiency as it integrates into the main brand [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The report highlights the increasing chain store advantage over independent tea shops, suggesting a trend towards consolidation in the tea beverage industry [2] - The report notes that the ready-to-drink beverage market is experiencing a surge in demand due to the growth of delivery services [2] - The digital RMB is positioned as a key driver for the internationalization of the RMB, with a projected transaction volume of 52.8 to 223.6 trillion RMB by 2030 [7] Group 4: Financial Insights - The company is valued at a target market cap of 12.2 billion HKD, with a target price of 116.56 HKD based on a 20x PE ratio for adjusted net profit in 2025 [1] - The report indicates that the digital RMB will benefit upstream technology support, midstream system adaptation, and downstream terminal deployment, suggesting broad growth potential across the industry [8]

中国人均现制饮品消费量提升潜力大，下沉市场是主要增长来源。外卖大战引爆短期需求，加快现制饮 品渗透率提升进程。中国现制茶饮行业竞争激烈，格局分散，沪上阿姨在北方市场领先。展望未来，连 锁品牌相比独立茶饮店更具规模、供应链、运营优势，茶饮行业连锁化率呈提升趋势，长尾品牌加速出 清。 多品牌扩大客群覆盖，咖啡品类提升店效 国泰海通证券发布研报称，首次覆盖给予沪上阿姨(02589)"增持"评级，目标价116.56港元，沪上阿姨旗 下拥有"沪上阿姨""茶瀑布"和"沪咖"三大品牌，形成覆盖不同价格带与消费群体的品牌矩阵。公司凭借 高效的研发与加盟模式快速拓展市场，尤其在北方具备优势。公司实施"一体两翼"战略，多品牌开店潜 力较大。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 现制饮品头部企业，打造品牌矩阵、通过加盟模式拓展全国市场 公司旗下有现制茶饮品牌"沪上阿姨"、"茶瀑布"与现磨咖啡品牌"沪咖"，定位不同品类、差异化价格 带，通过三大品牌概念构建了覆盖不同消费群体与市场层级的立体化产品矩阵。公司产品研发体系成 熟，上新频率行业领先，高效响应市场需求，引领更健康、更美味的现制饮品消费潮流。 现制饮品市场空间广阔，连锁化率持续提升 公 ...

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.818 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [2] - Gross profit reached 572 million yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year [2] - Net profit for the period was 203 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.9% [2] - Adjusted net profit stood at 244 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.0% [2] - Basic earnings per share were 1.97 yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.4% [2] - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a distribution of approximately 71.12 million yuan [2] Market Strategy - The company has successfully implemented a down-market strategy, with 51.1% of its stores located in third-tier and below cities [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of stores reached 9,436, an increase of nearly 1,000 stores year-on-year [3] - The down-market strategy has allowed the company to achieve stable growth despite industry uncertainties [3] Supply Chain and Franchise Model - The company has established a robust supply chain network, including 13 logistics bases, 4 equipment warehouses, 7 fresh produce warehouses, and 14 cold chain warehouses [4] - The supply chain supports the growing store network and ensures product quality and service stability [4] - The company has 5,706 franchisees operating 9,412 franchise stores, benefiting from a standardized and digitalized management system [4] - As of June 30, 2025, the company had 131.4 million registered members on its WeChat mini-program, with an average quarterly active membership of 15.8 million and a quarterly repurchase rate of 40.6% [4] Brand and Product Innovation - The company has developed a multi-brand strategy, including three main brands to enhance market reach and risk resilience [5][6] - The main brand "沪上阿姨" targets consumers in third-tier and below cities with cost-effective beverages, while "茶瀑布" focuses on a lower price range [5] - The introduction of "沪咖" in 2022 marks the company's entry into the coffee market, catering to diverse consumer needs [6] - The company launched 136 new products in the first half of 2025, maintaining a rapid pace of innovation [6] Market Recognition - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, indicating strong market recognition of its business performance and value [7] - The solid performance in the semi-annual report further strengthens the company's position among leading players in the new tea beverage industry [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of the newly listed tea beverage company, Hu Shang A Yi, which reported a revenue of 1.818 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit of 203 million yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The company's gross profit margin for the first half of the year was 31.4%, showing no significant fluctuation compared to the same period last year [1] - Three out of four major expenses for the company decreased during the first half of the year, including a 4.9% decline in sales and marketing expenses, a 1.1% decrease in research and development expenses, and a 37.8% reduction in financial costs, indicating a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] Group 2 - As of the end of June, Hu Shang A Yi operated a total of 9,436 stores across its three brands, with 24 being directly operated stores and 9,412 franchise stores [1] - The growth in store numbers during the first half of the year was primarily driven by franchise stores, which net increased by 260 stores, while the number of directly operated stores remained unchanged [2] - The company has a limited international presence, with only one self-operated store opened in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in February 2024 [2] - The board of directors proposed a mid-term dividend of 6.76 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling a proposed distribution of 71.12 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hu Shang A Yi, reported its first financial results post-IPO, showcasing solid revenue growth and profitability, while also being included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, indicating strong market recognition and potential for future growth [1][5]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.818 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.7% - Gross profit reached 572 million RMB, up 10.4% year-on-year - Net profit for the period was 203 million RMB, reflecting a 20.9% increase year-on-year - Adjusted net profit stood at 244 million RMB, a 14.0% year-on-year growth - Basic earnings per share were 1.97 RMB, marking a 19.4% increase year-on-year - The company proposed a mid-term dividend of 6.76 RMB per ten shares, totaling approximately 71.12 million RMB, pending shareholder approval [1]. Market Strategy - The company has successfully expanded its store network to 9,436 locations as of June 30, 2025, with nearly 1,000 new stores added year-on-year - Stores in third-tier and lower cities account for 51.1% of the total, reflecting a strategic focus on underdeveloped markets with high growth potential [2]. Supply Chain and Franchise System - The company operates a robust supply chain network consisting of 13 logistics bases, 4 equipment warehouses, 7 fresh produce warehouses, and 14 cold chain warehouses - It has established a mutually beneficial partnership with 5,706 franchisees, operating 9,412 franchise stores, enhancing operational efficiency and brand loyalty - The company has 131.4 million registered members on its WeChat mini-program, with an average quarterly active user count of 15.8 million and a quarterly repurchase rate of 40.6% [3]. Brand and Product Innovation - The company has developed a multi-brand strategy with three main brands: Hu Shang A Yi, Cha Pu Bu, and Hu Ka, targeting different market segments and price points - In the first half of 2025, the company launched 136 new products, focusing on health-oriented offerings that appeal to younger consumers - Marketing efforts have generated significant attention, with new product launches achieving high sales volumes and online exposure [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage industry has seen a wave of listings, with the successful IPO of "沪上阿姨" marking a significant milestone, indicating a competitive landscape that is far from over [4][22][23]. Company Overview - "沪上阿姨" officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 8, 2025, becoming the fourth new tea beverage company to go public after "古茗", "蜜雪冰城", and "霸王茶姬" [4][22]. - The initial offering price was HKD 113.12 per share, with the stock price surging by 68% at one point, closing at HKD 158.4, giving it a market capitalization of HKD 166.07 billion [4][5]. Business Model and Expansion - The company has rapidly expanded from 3,000 stores in early 2021 to an expected 9,176 stores by the end of 2024, primarily through a franchise model [7][17]. - As of the end of 2024, 99.7% of its stores are franchises, contributing significantly to its revenue, which was reported at RMB 32.85 billion for the year [17][19]. Revenue Structure - The majority of revenue comes from franchise-related income, which accounted for 96.5% of total revenue in 2024, with sales to franchisees being the largest contributor [17][19]. - The company operates three brand concepts: "沪上阿姨", "沪咖", and "轻享版", with the main brand generating the bulk of the income [12][19]. Market Positioning - "沪上阿姨" has strategically focused on the northern market, with over 50% of its stores located in northern China, capitalizing on the popularity of its hot five-grain tea products during colder months [20][21]. - The brand has established itself as a leader in the mid-priced tea beverage segment in northern China [20]. Future Outlook - The successful IPO provides "沪上阿姨" with additional capital for expansion and operational improvements, including supply chain upgrades and digital transformation [23][25][26]. - The new tea beverage industry is expected to continue evolving, with companies likely to pursue international expansion and enhance their supply chain capabilities [24][26].

Core Insights - The new tea beverage brand "沪上阿姨" (Hushang Ayi) has successfully launched on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking it as the fourth new tea beverage company to go public since 2025 [1][2] - The company reported impressive sales figures, with an average daily sale of approximately 1.64 million cups and a total revenue of 3.285 billion yuan for 2024 [1][5] Company Overview - Founded in July 2013 by couple Dan Weijun and Zhou Rongrong, "沪上阿姨" started with a unique product offering of "five-grain milk tea" and quickly gained popularity [3][4] - The company has expanded its store network significantly, reaching 9,176 stores by the end of 2024, with a focus on franchise operations [5][6] Financial Performance - For the year 2024, "沪上阿姨" reported a revenue of 3.285 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of about 329 million yuan, down 15.2% from the previous year [6][7] - The company's gross merchandise volume (GMV) for 2024 was 10.736 billion yuan, with franchise-related income accounting for over 96% of total revenue [6][7] Market Position and Competition - "沪上阿姨" is among the top five ready-to-drink tea brands in China, alongside competitors like "蜜雪冰城" (Mixue), "古茗" (Guming), and "茶百道" (Chabaidao) [2][7] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a decline in average single-store GMV from 1.559 million yuan in 2023 to 1.37 million yuan in 2024 due to increased market saturation [7] Future Plans - The company aims to enhance its digital capabilities, develop new products, and expand its store network, with plans to enter overseas markets in Malaysia, the Philippines, and North America [8] - "沪上阿姨" has initiated a "10,000 store plan" to increase its store count, although it currently has only 9,176 stores [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage brand "Hushang Ayi" is set to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the fifth new tea brand to list after successful IPOs of competitors like Nayuki and Mixue Ice City, with market attention focused on its performance amid previous listing challenges in the sector [1][2]. Expansion Strategy - Hushang Ayi has rapidly expanded its store network from 5,307 at the end of 2022 to an expected 9,176 by the end of 2024, with 99.7% of these stores operated by franchisees, indicating a light-asset operational model that facilitates market penetration [1][6]. - The brand strategically targets lower-tier markets, claiming a strong market position in mid-priced tea beverage stores across over 300 cities in China, with a significant number of stores located in third-tier and below cities [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a shift towards stock competition, with Hushang Ayi aiming to capture market share through a multi-brand strategy and low-price model, particularly in underdeveloped markets [3][9]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with numerous brands lacking significant differentiation, leading to potential challenges in maintaining market share [9]. Financial Performance - Hushang Ayi's average single-store GMV decreased from RMB 1.6 million in 2023 to RMB 1.4 million in 2024, with total revenue slightly declining by 1.9% to RMB 3.285 billion, attributed to reduced income from franchise-related and self-operated stores [6][8]. - Despite the decline in average GMV, approximately 48.8% of new stores in 2024 were opened by existing franchisees, indicating a strong willingness to reinvest within the franchise system [6]. Franchise Model - The franchise model has allowed Hushang Ayi to expand rapidly, with 96.5% of its revenue coming from franchise operations, but it also poses risks related to quality control and operational oversight [6][7]. - The company mandates that franchisees source most ingredients from its centralized procurement platform, which includes a comprehensive supply chain network [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that 2025 will mark a critical juncture for the tea and coffee sectors, with increasing competition and a focus on supply chain efficiency and product differentiation becoming essential for sustainable growth [8][9]. - Hushang Ayi has begun exploring international markets, although it currently operates only one overseas store, highlighting the potential for future expansion [8].