固定收益月报 货币增强新方向与两会前后日历效应 核心结论二：回顾临近两会的日历效应，春节至两会期间通常在信贷发力、 政策预期升温等因素影响下为传统的债市调整窗口；两会期间市场多进入震 荡；两会结束后至4月政治局会议通常为经济数据验证期，叠加信贷"开门红" 结束后配债力量回归，债市通常走强。但仍需注意在流动性收紧（2025）、 极致资产荒（2024）等影响下，日历效应可能失效，需以当年宏观主线为准。 今年两会需重点关注：财政与地产政策预期差、宽货币预期的再校准、银行 季末负债稳定性与配债持续性。 3月展望：央行公开市场投放或将继续保持积极，利率高位磨顶阶段建议逢调 整适度拉长久期。 资金面看，2月资金利率低位运行，央行月内重启14D逆回购、全月公开市场 操作净投放近8000亿元，全月银行体系资金面合理充裕、大型银行资金融出 量保持高位；预计在"财政金融协同支持扩内需"与"引导短期货币市场利 率更好围绕央行政策利率平稳运行"的政策指引下央行公开市场投放或继续 保持积极，资金利率将保持低位运行。此外，考虑到当前多只30Y老券税后 利率超过了个人住房贷款利率的税后值，30Y-10Y国债利差向上逼近50BP， 超长债性 ...

来源：市场资讯 货币ETF及债券ETF均为假期稳健收益之选 （来源：东北证券金融世界） Q9 资金过节怎么办？看懂货币与债券ETF的春节收益 A 根据国务院办公厅发布的通知，2026年春节将拥有一个为期9天的悠长假期（2月15日至2月23日）。这个来得稍晚的马年新春，不仅适合享受团聚，也为 投资者提供了一个规划资金的契机——如何让资产在春节休市期间依然创造收益？实现这一点的关键，在于理解货币ETF和债券ETF的"假日收益"特性。 即便在春节休市期间，这些ETF所持有的资产仍会持续计息，使得基金净值在假期中依然能够增长，真正做到"人闲钱不闲"。 | | | | 2026-2月休市安排 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周一 | 周二 | 周三 | 周四 | 周五 | 周六 | 周 日 | | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | । રે | | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | | 简单来说，收益来自于它们投资的底层资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that investors with idle funds and a willingness to accept some volatility should consider purchasing the National Development Bank Bond ETF (国开债券ETF) or corporate bond ETFs before the holiday, as it may provide better returns compared to other short-term cash management options [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to buy the National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) as it offers better returns than reverse repos, especially since buying on February 13 allows them to enjoy 8 days of interest during the holiday [1] - The National Development Bank Bond ETF has lower holding fees (20 basis points) compared to the average 40 basis points for money market ETFs, making it a more cost-effective option for investors looking to buy before the holiday [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of February 12, 2026, the National Development Bank Bond ETF has increased by 0.01%, with a one-year cumulative increase of 1.19% [2] - The ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, with an increase of 20.67 million yuan over the past week [3] - The ETF's maximum drawdown this year is 0.04%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.03% [3] Group 3: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The National Development Bank Bond ETF has a trading volume of 1.67 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [2] - The average daily trading volume over the past year is 274 million yuan [2] Group 4: Fee Structure - The management fee for the National Development Bank Bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4] Group 5: Tracking Accuracy - The ETF has a tracking error of 0.009% over the past three months, closely following the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various investment strategies using ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) tailored to different life stages and financial needs, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation based on individual circumstances and market conditions. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - Asset allocation should be adjusted according to different life stages, considering factors like age, income, and risk tolerance [1][2]. - For daily expenses, liquidity and safety are paramount, suggesting the use of money ETFs for such funds [4][5]. - Fixed expenses require a balance of safety and liquidity, recommending bond ETFs, particularly government bond ETFs, for stable returns [5][6]. - Long-term investments should focus on wealth preservation and growth, allowing for a mix of stock ETFs, bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, and potentially cross-border ETFs [5][6]. Group 2: Life Cycle Considerations - The life cycle is divided into three main phases: education (under 20), career (20-60), and retirement (60 and above), with income typically being lower than expenses in the first and last phases [6][8]. - During the career phase, individuals should focus on preparing for retirement while managing family expenses and debts [6][8]. - Investment strategies should evolve with age, with younger investors (20-30) having a higher risk tolerance and older investors (60+) needing to prioritize safety and income [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Strategies by Age Group - Young investors (20-30) are advised to allocate 70% to stock ETFs and 30% to bond ETFs, adjusting based on personal financial needs [8][9]. - Middle-aged investors (30-60) should reduce stock ETF allocations and increase bond ETF investments as financial responsibilities grow [9][10]. - Older investors (60+) should keep stock ETF investments below 40% and increase bond ETF investments to over 55%, maintaining some liquidity with money ETFs [10][11]. Group 4: Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy - The dollar-cost averaging strategy involves regular, fixed-amount investments in ETFs to mitigate market volatility and emotional decision-making [11][12]. - This strategy simplifies investment decisions and encourages disciplined saving habits, making it suitable for new and busy investors [18][19]. - Regular assessments of the investment plan are necessary to adapt to market conditions and personal financial situations [20][21].

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth and development of the ETF market in 2025, driven by various government policies aimed at enhancing market efficiency and attracting long-term capital [1][2][3] Global ETF Development Overview - By the end of 2025, the global ETF market reached an asset size of over $19.7 trillion, marking a 31% increase from the previous year [6][10] - The U.S. ETF market accounted for approximately $13.5 trillion, representing about 68% of the global market [10][11] - Stock ETFs dominated the asset categories, comprising about 77.7% of the total ETF market [7][9] Domestic ETF Market Development - The domestic ETF market in China surpassed ¥6 trillion by the end of 2025, becoming the largest ETF market in Asia [1][18] - The number of listed ETFs in China reached 1,381, a 35.7% increase from 2024 [18] - The net inflow of funds into domestic ETFs exceeded ¥1.16 trillion, with bond ETFs attracting the highest net inflow of ¥552.7 billion [18][19] Shanghai Stock Exchange ETF Development - The Shanghai Stock Exchange ETF market saw its size grow from ¥2.72 trillion to ¥4.22 trillion, a 55% increase [21][22] - The number of new ETF products listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange doubled compared to 2024, with significant contributions from broad-based ETFs [22][25] - Institutional investors held 65% of the ETF market by the end of 2025, indicating a shift towards more stable, long-term investment strategies [22][32] Product Innovation and Market Structure - The report emphasizes the continuous innovation in ETF products, including the introduction of 355 new ETFs in 2025, with a focus on broad-based and thematic ETFs [19][26] - The development of green ETFs and products related to state-owned enterprises reflects a strategic alignment with national priorities [29][27] Future Outlook for the ETF Market - The ETF market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on enhancing product offerings and improving market mechanisms to attract long-term capital [35][36] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to strengthen its international presence and regulatory framework to support the sustainable development of the ETF market [41][40]

Group 1 - The current trading fee for ETFs among major brokerages is generally around 0.03% with a minimum charge of 5 yuan, but this rate can vary, and some brokerages may offer fees as low as 0.005% [1] - Investors do not need to open a separate account to trade ETFs; they can trade ETFs with an existing A-share securities account, similar to trading stocks [1] - The minimum trading unit for ETFs is 1 lot, which equals 100 fund shares, and the minimum price fluctuation is 0.001 yuan [1] Group 2 - Stock ETFs combine the advantages of both funds and stocks, providing investors with a convenient, flexible, and low-cost investment channel [2] - Investing in stock ETFs allows investors to invest in a basket of stocks with a single transaction, reducing risk compared to investing in individual stocks [2] - The price movement of stock ETFs generally aligns with the stock market, allowing investors to focus on market trends rather than individual stock analysis [2] Group 3 - The trading rules for ETFs include specific trading hours, with trading sessions on weekdays from 9:30 to 11:30 and 13:00 to 15:00, and T+1 settlement for stock ETFs, while money/bond/cross-border ETFs allow T+0 trading [3] - The minimum trading unit for ETFs is 1 lot (100 shares), and the price can change by 0.001 yuan, with potential larger spreads for less liquid ETFs [3] - There are limits on price fluctuations, with main board ETFs capped at ±10%, and ChiNext/STAR Market ETFs at ±20%, while cross-border and commodity ETFs have no limits [3]

ETF Industry News - The three major indices mostly rose, with several ETFs in the power equipment sector leading the gains. The grid equipment ETF (159326.SZ) rose by 7.76%, the grid ETF (561380.SH) by 7.18%, and another grid ETF (159320.SZ) by 7.03%. In contrast, several ETFs in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector declined, with the Sci-Tech Pharmaceutical ETF (588130.SH) down by 2.21% and the Innovative Drug ETF (517110.SH) down by 2.17% [1] ETF Market Highlights - In the first two weeks of 2026, two ETFs reached the "trillion" mark in size, specifically those managed by Huaxia Fund and the cross-border ETF. This indicates a significant scale in the ETF market, which has accumulated over 6 trillion in assets over 20 years with nearly 60 managers. Major players like Huaxia and E-Fund continue to grow due to scale advantages, while smaller firms leverage differentiated strategies [2] - The number of ETFs included in the "ETF Connect" has expanded to 364, with 98 ETFs officially added to the Northbound Stock Connect. This represents a more than 30% increase from the previous total of 273. A total of 29 fund companies had products included, with Huaxia Fund leading with 14 new ETFs [3] - Recent market dynamics show a significant internal shift in ETF funds, with large redemptions in low-risk products like broad-based ETFs, bond ETFs, and money market ETFs. Conversely, commodity ETFs, cross-border ETFs, and narrow-based ETFs have become key areas for fund inflows, reflecting a shift in investor preferences [4] Market Performance Overview - On January 19, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to 4114.0 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.09% to 14294.05 points. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.7% to 3337.61 points [5] - In terms of sector performance, the basic chemical, oil and petrochemical, and power equipment sectors led the gains with daily increases of 2.7%, 2.08%, and 1.84%, respectively. In contrast, the computer, communication, and banking sectors lagged behind with declines of -1.55%, -0.96%, and -0.6% [8] ETF Market Overview - The average performance of various ETF categories indicates that commodity ETFs performed the best with an average increase of 1.21%, while cross-border ETFs had the worst performance with an average decline of -1.14% [11] Top Performing ETFs - The top five ETFs in different categories include: - Stock ETFs: Grid Equipment ETF (159326.SZ), Grid ETF (561380.SH), and others [14] - Bond ETFs: Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH), Shanghai Composite Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH), and others [14] - Commodity ETFs: Gold ETF (159834.SZ), Gold ETF (518850.SH), and others [14] - Cross-border ETFs: Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (520660.SH), Sino-Korean Semiconductor ETF (513310.SH), and others [15] Trading Volume Statistics - The top three stock ETFs by trading volume were A500 ETF (563360.SH) with 14.083 billion, CSI 300 ETF (510300.SH) with 13.793 billion, and A500 ETF Fund (512050.SH) with 12.891 billion [16][17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant internal shift in the ETF market, with funds moving away from broad-based ETFs to narrower, high-volatility products [1][2][5] - Year-to-date, over 200 billion yuan has been withdrawn from broad-based ETFs, with 14 ETFs experiencing a net outflow exceeding 30 billion yuan, all of which are broad-based ETFs [2][4] - The largest stock ETF in China has seen its scale drop from 400 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan, while the second-largest has decreased from 300 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - In contrast, narrow-based ETFs, cross-border ETFs, and commodity ETFs have attracted significant inflows, with cross-border ETFs growing by 746.32 billion yuan, surpassing the 1 trillion yuan mark for the first time [4][6] - The South China Nonferrous ETF has become the only product to receive over 10 billion yuan in net inflows this year, driven by rising base metal prices [6][8] - The active trading environment in the A-share market and the structural differentiation in performance have led to increased demand for high-elasticity assets, further supporting the inflow into narrow-based ETFs [7][9] Group 3 - Fund companies focusing on narrow-based ETFs are experiencing significant growth, with companies like GF Fund and Yongying Fund expanding their ETF scales rapidly [7][8] - The current market dynamics suggest that narrow-based ETFs are becoming a key driver of growth in the ETF sector, especially for smaller fund companies looking to compete against larger institutions [9][10] - There is a concern that narrow-based ETFs may be used as speculative tools rather than for long-term asset allocation, which could lead to increased trading costs and volatility for investors [10]

Market Overview - The market opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending flat, marking ten consecutive days of gains. The total trading volume for the day was 2.1 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day, while over 3,400 stocks declined [1] - The robotics sector saw a collective surge, with nearly 20 stocks, including Boke Co. and Sanhua Intelligent Control, hitting the daily limit. The liquid-cooled server concept also rose, with Unification Holdings reaching the limit and Dingtong Technology increasing by over 10%. The AI agent concept was active, with Kute Intelligent and Nanxing Co. also hitting the limit. Conversely, the Hainan Free Trade Zone concept fell, with Junda Co. dropping over 7%, and the commercial aerospace concept adjusted, with the leading stock Shenjian Co. hitting the limit down [1] Fund Flow - Main funds focused on sectors such as automotive parts, advertising marketing, and general equipment, with notable net inflows into stocks like Shanzi Gaoke, China Satellite Communications, and Shuo Beid [2] Key News - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized the need to enhance grain production capacity, aiming for a new round of actions to increase grain output by a billion jin. It highlighted the importance of agricultural modernization and improving food supply capabilities [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology called for accelerated development of national new-type internet exchange centers, supporting their establishment in regions with strong demand and good infrastructure to enhance efficient cross-regional and cross-industry data flow [4] - Multiple currency ETFs experienced unusual market activity, prompting fund companies to issue risk alerts regarding premium risks, particularly as year-end demand for cash management tools increases [5] Market Outlook - Dongfang Securities noted that the market is gradually building upward momentum, with the "cross-year" rally expected to continue. The Shanghai Composite Index has shown significant rebound trends, and the strong performance of leading stocks suggests a strategic bullish outlook [6] - Guotou Securities indicated that the probability of market fluctuations is higher than that of accelerated increases, as the recent gains have been modest compared to previous streaks, and trading volume has not significantly expanded [7]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced increased volatility due to a combination of domestic and international negative factors, leading to declines across major indices, with small-cap indices like the North Securities 50 and CSI 2000 dropping over 5% for the week [1][4] - The average daily trading volume decreased compared to the previous week, totaling 9.23 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of approximately 1.84 trillion yuan, indicating potential challenges for a short-term market recovery [4] Sector Performance - The Shenwan first-level industry indices all fell, with the power equipment sector leading the decline at -10.54%, while basic chemicals, retail, and steel sectors also saw declines exceeding 5% [4] - The banking sector was the most resilient, showing the least decline among various sectors [4] Global Market Trends - Internationally, markets such as the KOSPI 200, Nikkei 255, and NASDAQ 100 also faced significant declines, with weekly drops of 4.09%, 3.47%, and 3.07% respectively, marking their worst performances in recent times [7] - The downturn was attributed to hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which reduced December rate cut expectations from 50% to 30%-40%, tightening risk appetite and impacting risk assets like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which fell over 10% [7] ETF Market Activity - Contrasting the overall market trend, the ETF market saw a net inflow of over 86.1 billion yuan for the week, with stock ETFs being the primary focus, attracting approximately 58.2 billion yuan [7][8] - The total ETF shares reached 30,672.98 billion, an increase of 51.55 billion shares from the previous week, indicating a strong interest in ETFs despite broader market declines [8] Notable ETF Performance - Among the ETFs, several tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Internet Index saw significant inflows, with four ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index collectively gaining over 11 billion shares [8] - Only two out of 1,258 stock ETFs managed to close in the green, both tracking foreign indices, highlighting the challenging environment for domestic ETFs [9] Technical Analysis and Outlook - Major indices have broken below key support levels, indicating a bearish market sentiment, with the potential for further declines if trading volumes and margin financing continue to decrease [7][10] - Despite the recent downturn, there is a suggestion of strong support within the 3,800-point range for the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a possible base for future upward movement [10]