Summary of the Conference Call for Morning Glory Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Morning Glory Co., Ltd. (晨光股份) - **Industry**: Stationery and Office Supplies Key Points and Arguments Growth Strategy - Morning Glory is implementing an IP-driven and overseas expansion strategy, expecting a net profit of **1.69 billion** yuan in 2025, a **20%** year-on-year increase [2][5] - The target for IP-based stationery products has been raised from **7%-8%** to **15%-20%** to meet market demand and enhance retail business, aiming for double-digit growth [2][8] Market Potential - The IP stationery market is projected to reach approximately **5 billion** yuan in 2024, with a low penetration rate of **4%** but a growth rate exceeding **25%** [2][9] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the IP stationery market is expected to remain above **20%** over the next two to three years [2][9] Brand Performance - Morning Glory's sub-brand "Fun and Play" achieved over **200 million** yuan in revenue in 2024, a **150%** increase, with profits of **20 million** yuan, up **260%** [2][12] - The brand is testing entry into core Morning Glory stores, which could contribute an estimated **1 billion** yuan in revenue if it penetrates **50%** of the core stores [2][12] Overseas Expansion - The overseas distribution channel is rapidly growing, with a projected revenue of **600 million** yuan in 2024, a **50%** increase, primarily in Southeast Asia [2][13] - By 2025, the overseas distribution system is expected to reach **900 million** yuan, also a **50%** increase [2][13] - Morning Glory is actively expanding its headquarters lifestyle stores in Southeast Asia [2][13] Recent Changes and Collaborations - Morning Glory has launched new products for the summer marketing season and formed a strategic partnership with Tencent Video to introduce top anime IPs [3] - The new product launch exceeded market expectations, indicating the company's commitment to transformation [3] Inventory and Market Dynamics - Channel inventory is at a historical low of approximately **1.1 billion** yuan, down **20%-30%** from previous highs [4][16] - The stationery industry is transitioning to an information-based supply phase, with expectations for recovery in terminal sales [18] Challenges and Adjustments - The "Miscellaneous Store" business faced losses in 2024 due to misalignment with target demographics, but plans to refocus on high-margin products in 2025 [4][19] - The impact of the "Double Reduction" policy has led to a **15%-20%** decrease in demand for stationery among higher-grade students [17] Competitive Landscape - Traditional local brands are being phased out, while emerging brands are rapidly gaining market share by integrating popular IP elements [10][11] - Japanese brands are losing competitive edge due to high pricing, while domestic products are improving in quality and cost-effectiveness [11] Future Directions - Morning Glory plans to expand its IP matrix, focusing on domestic and Japanese anime, and aims to enhance its product offerings through strategic partnerships [21][22] - The company is also exploring the introduction of new IPs to diversify its product range and appeal to consumer preferences [21][25] Conclusion - Morning Glory is poised for growth through strategic IP integration, overseas expansion, and a focus on retail, with a strong outlook for profitability and market share increase in the stationery industry [2][8][15]

Core Insights - The 7th GH Shanghai Gift Expo will be held from July 17-19, 2025, at the Shanghai New International Expo Center, focusing on the gift and home industry in East China [1] - The expo aims to create a comprehensive gift ecosystem by gathering global suppliers and addressing corporate gift procurement, brand marketing, and supply chain upgrades [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The expo will cover an area of 50,000 square meters, featuring 1,500 exhibitors and showcasing 100,000 trendy products [2] - It will focus on four major consumer hotspots: Mid-Autumn gifts, fragrances, designer brands, and emerging brands, attracting various professional buyers from East China and nationwide [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The rise of the Z generation's purchasing power has made IP culture and trendy products key growth drivers in the gift industry [3] - The expo will feature over a thousand new products from leading IP licensors and independent design brands, targeting the young consumer market [3] Group 3: Customization and Services - The expo will provide full-category customization services and one-stop procurement solutions to meet the increasing demand for corporate customization [4] - Advanced technologies such as 3D printing and digital laser engraving will be demonstrated to enhance customization capabilities [4] Group 4: Industry Connectivity - The expo aims to connect the entire industry chain, facilitating supply-demand matching between manufacturers, gift companies, and e-commerce platforms [5][6] - It will feature a diverse range of exhibitors, including full-service providers, independent creative brands, and source factories, to support various business needs [6] Group 5: Future Growth - The GH Shanghai Gift Expo serves as a platform for product display and industry trend insights, aiming to help businesses overcome homogenization and explore new market opportunities [7] - The event invites global buyers to witness the evolving landscape of the gift industry, emphasizing the theme "Everything Can Be a Gift" [7]

Investment Rating - The report rates the investment in the collectible card industry as positive, highlighting the leading position of the company in this sector [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the company is a pioneer in China's collectible card business, holding significant market shares in both the broader entertainment product and toy industries, with shares of 13.3%, 21.5%, and 71.1% respectively [8][39]. - The company has a strong competitive advantage due to its integrated "production-research-sales" model, robust IP operation capabilities, and nationwide sales network, which allows for quick responses to market demands [8][46]. - The collectible card industry in China is still in its early development stages, with substantial potential for per capita spending growth compared to markets in Europe, America, and Japan [50][53]. - The company has a diverse IP matrix, including 70 IPs, and has seen significant revenue contributions from its top five IP products, which accounted for 98.4%, 89.9%, and 86.1% of total revenue in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [39][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leader in the collectible card industry in China, with a focus on expanding its product categories to include stationery and toys [8][39]. - The company has received investments from major firms like Sequoia China and Tencent, which have facilitated its product diversification [8][39]. 2. Core Business - The company has a deep production supply chain and sales channel layout, launching numerous toy series and expanding into stationery products [17][27]. - The revenue from collectible cards has shown volatility, while non-card products have steadily increased, indicating a healthier revenue structure [63][67]. 3. Brand Power and IP Licensing - The company benefits from a strong brand and IP licensing cycle, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from non-exclusive IP arrangements [39][44]. - The company’s IP matrix includes popular franchises, contributing to high gross margins and revenue stability [39][45]. 4. Industry Overview - The collectible card market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, reaching a market size of RMB 263 billion [50][52]. - Comparatively, per capita spending on collectible cards in China is significantly lower than in Japan and the USA, indicating room for growth [53][54]. 5. Financial Performance - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a notable increase from RMB 26.62 billion in 2023 to RMB 100.57 billion in 2024, driven by successful product launches [63][64]. - The revenue structure is becoming more balanced, with a decreasing reliance on collectible card sales as the company diversifies its product offerings [63][67].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the "Guziko Economy" in the two-dimensional cultural peripheral economy is highlighted, with the Chinese pan-entertainment product industry expected to reach a market size of 1,741 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% from 2019 to 2024, and projected to reach 3,358 billion yuan by 2029 [2] Company Overview - Card Game Co., Ltd. (KAYOU) is a leading player in the collectible card game sector, initiating its IPO process again after an unsuccessful attempt in January 2024, with a new prospectus submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 14, 2025 [2][4] - The company has received investments from Sequoia Capital and Tencent, with revenue surpassing 10 billion yuan in 2024 [4][10] Financial Performance - KAYOU's revenue for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 was approximately 41.31 billion yuan, 26.62 billion yuan, and 100.57 billion yuan respectively, with a significant year-on-year growth of 277.8% in 2024 after a decline of 35.6% in 2023 [11][12] - The company reported net profits of -296 million yuan in 2022, 449.5 million yuan in 2023, and -1.2415 billion yuan in 2024, with adjusted net profits of 1.62 billion yuan, 934 million yuan, and 4.466 billion yuan respectively [12] Market Position - KAYOU holds the top market share in the pan-entertainment product and toy sectors, with respective shares of 13.3% and 21.5%, and dominates the collectible card game market with a share of 71.1% [10] - The company has expanded its product offerings beyond collectible cards to include badges, stickers, dolls, and stationery, although the majority of revenue still comes from collectible cards [10][13] IP Dependency - KAYOU's business model heavily relies on IP licensing, with 70 IPs as of 2024, of which 69 are licensed and 1 is proprietary [11] - The company faces potential risks as over half of its IP licenses are set to expire in the coming years, with 38 licenses expiring by 2025 and 39 by 2026 [15][17] Social Responsibility and Regulatory Challenges - KAYOU has faced scrutiny regarding its sales practices to minors, particularly concerning blind box products, which have led to significant financial expenditures by children [19][21] - The company has been reported to have violated regulations regarding the sale of blind boxes to minors, raising concerns about its commitment to consumer protection [21]

Company Overview - KAYOU Limited is a leading company in the pan-entertainment product sector, focusing on IP-based physical products such as toys and stationery [2] - The company has a diverse product range, with collectible card games being its core offering, and is expanding into other categories like figurines and stationery [2] Financial Performance - KAYOU's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with figures of 4.131 billion, 2.662 billion, and 10.057 billion RMB for the years 2022 to 2024, respectively, crossing the 10 billion RMB mark [2] - Operating profits for the same period are expected to be 1.803 billion, 0.831 billion, and 3.707 billion RMB, while net profits show a fluctuation with losses in 2022 and 2024 [2][3] - Adjusted net profits under non-IFRS measures are forecasted to be 1.620 billion, 0.934 billion, and 4.466 billion RMB for 2022 to 2024 [3] Market Position - KAYOU holds a leading market share in the pan-entertainment product industry, with 13.3% overall and 21.5% in the pan-entertainment toy sector, and dominates the collectible card game market with a 71.1% share [2] - The company is also the top player in the pan-entertainment stationery market with a 24.3% share [2] Industry Growth - The pan-entertainment product market in China is expected to grow from 91.9 billion RMB in 2019 to 174.1 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% [4] - The collectible card game segment is projected to grow at a remarkable CAGR of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, representing 25.8% of the overall pan-entertainment toy market by 2024 [4] IP Dependency - KAYOU has a diverse IP matrix consisting of 70 IPs, but only one is proprietary, raising concerns about reliance on licensed IPs [5][6] - A significant portion of revenue comes from non-exclusive IP arrangements, with 96.0%, 82.3%, and 88.0% of total revenue derived from such products from 2022 to 2024 [6] - The company faces potential risks as 38 IP licensing agreements are set to expire by 2025, necessitating negotiations for renewals [6] Business Structure - The stationery segment has shown impressive growth, increasing from 20.9 million RMB to over 500 million RMB from 2022 to 2024, but remains a small part of overall revenue [7] - KAYOU's performance is heavily reliant on the collectible card game segment, indicating a risk associated with dependence on a single product line [7]