2026年02月25日 证券研究报告 | 悦己消费产业链研究之银发经济 关注运动产业和适老化产品企业机会 行业研究 · 行业快评 纺织服饰 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：丁诗洁 证券分析师：刘佳琪 0755-81981391 010-88005446 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn S0980520040004 S0980523070003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 事项：随着中国正步入深度老龄化社会，老龄化既带来劳动力供给趋紧等社会挑战，也蕴含巨大的银发族的消费市场新 机遇。相关企业积极布局有望迎来发展新机遇。 • 国信纺服观点：随着中国老龄化程度逐步加深，银发经济正成为消费市场的重要增长引擎。老龄化虽带来劳动力供给趋 紧等挑战，但同时也孕育着消费新机遇，如健康意识的提升推动大众运动产业蓬勃发展，老年人口对医疗护理、适老用 品的需求持续扩容等。具体来看： 1）运动服饰：日本老龄化社会运动鞋服消费坚挺，大众运动产业逆势增长。参照日本经验，经济低迷与老龄化背景 ...

Core Insights - The outdoor products market in China has reached a scale of over 100 billion, with continuous double-digit growth for several years, driven by a shift towards "lightweight outdoor" activities that are more accessible and social [3][4] - The outdoor industry is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2025, influenced by policies promoting health, rural revitalization, and consumption upgrades [3] - The report emphasizes the need for brands to focus on creating experiences rather than just selling equipment, fostering community among users, and becoming partners in a lifestyle rather than mere sellers [6][7][8] Group 1: Industry Insights - Many consumers engage in outdoor activities primarily for social media validation rather than genuine interest, leading to low retention rates for brands that focus solely on attracting new customers [6] - Emotional value is becoming more important than the actual value of equipment, with consumers willing to pay for experiences that provide emotional satisfaction [9] - Social media plays a crucial role in generating demand for outdoor products, as many consumers are inspired by content rather than pre-existing needs [10][12] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Outdoor activities are becoming a new form of social interaction, with shared experiences in nature fostering deeper connections among participants [14] - The silver-haired population and families with children are emerging as significant consumer groups, showing stable and substantial purchasing power [15] - Successful outdoor stores are transforming into community hubs rather than mere warehouses, offering unique experiences that cannot be replicated online [17] Group 3: Brand Strategies - Brands must prioritize sustainability and environmental responsibility as a fundamental requirement for survival in the outdoor industry [18] - The rise of rental models for outdoor equipment reflects a shift in consumer attitudes towards ownership, emphasizing access and experience over possession [19][20] - Brands should focus on storytelling and community engagement rather than relying solely on celebrity endorsements or influencer marketing [31][32] Group 4: Market Trends - The demand for high-quality materials is increasing, but brands must differentiate themselves beyond just using premium fabrics [21][22] - The trend towards lightweight outdoor gear can lead to compromises in safety and durability, which brands must avoid [22] - The outdoor market is seeing a growing interest in innovative technologies, such as electric-assisted bicycles and solar power, which are reshaping consumer experiences [43]

Group 1: Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo showcased a "health new wind" in the consumer goods sector, highlighting innovations in scientific weight loss, nutritional intervention, and fitness, integrating sports, medicine, nutrition, and technology into a personalized health management network [1] Group 2: Company Innovations - Qiaoshan Health Technology introduced the "AI Weight Management" concept, offering a complete home fitness ecosystem that includes health assessments, personalized fitness plans, and customized dietary advice, aiming to transition from a traditional fitness equipment supplier to a health solutions provider [2] - Asics transformed its booth into an interactive experience space, utilizing AI to provide customized sports reports and offering free guidance on sports equipment and dynamic posture assessments in multiple cities, positioning itself as a "health station" for citizens [2] - Novo Nordisk created an immersive experience space focused on obesity management, using AI technology to enhance public awareness of obesity and its health risks [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Sports consumption is increasingly recognized as a key driver for economic development and consumer spending, with companies like Adidas and Lululemon emphasizing their commitment to the Chinese market and the potential for growth in health-conscious consumer behavior [4] - Nike highlighted the societal trend towards a "healthy lifestyle" in China, viewing it as an opportunity for sustainable development and encouraging individuals to engage in their preferred forms of exercise [4] - Skechers expressed appreciation for the opportunities presented by the Import Expo, emphasizing the value of policy communication and industry collaboration in the Chinese market [4]

Core Insights - The global fashion and luxury goods industry is experiencing significant divergence, with strong recovery in North America and China driving growth for some brands while others face structural challenges [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Canada Goose reported a 20% year-on-year revenue increase in the Asia-Pacific market, with strong double-digit growth in mainland China, driven by direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels [2] - Ralph Lauren's global revenue grew by 17% to $2 billion, with over 30% growth in the Chinese market, reflecting a successful high-end strategy [3][4] - Brooks, a professional running shoe brand, achieved a 17% increase in global revenue, with an impressive 82% growth in the Asia-Pacific market [11][12] Group 2: Structural Challenges - Coty Group's net revenue fell by 6% to $1.577 billion, with all business segments and markets declining, raising concerns about its position in the global beauty market [5] - Hugo Boss reported a 4% decline in total sales, particularly struggling in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating a lack of local brand resonance [10] - Michael Kors showed signs of stabilization with a slight revenue decline of 1.8%, marking a potential recovery phase after several quarters of negative growth [9] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Olivier Rousteing's departure from Balmain marks a new phase for the brand as it seeks to reshape its creative and commercial strategies [6] - LVMH showcased its commitment to sustainable fashion at the China International Import Expo, highlighting its ongoing relationship with the Chinese market [7] - The luxury brands are shifting from price-driven strategies to experience-driven competition, as evidenced by the pricing strategies of Louis Vuitton and Gucci in China and the U.S. [16] Group 4: Legal and Regulatory Developments - Shanghai police arrested 22 individuals involved in a major counterfeit luxury goods operation, reflecting increasing protection for brands and intellectual property in China [14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the retail industry in China [1]. Core Insights - Offline retail performance in South China was under pressure during Q3 2025 and the first three days of Golden Week, with significant year-on-year declines in sales for many brands [10][11]. - International cosmetics brands experienced weak sales, while domestic brand MAOGEPING showed strong performance during the same period [12]. - Sports brands Li-Ning and Anta outperformed NIKE and ADIDAS, achieving double-digit growth, while the latter two saw declines [13]. - Outdoor brands maintained resilient sales, with higher discount levels compared to sports brands, although overall discount levels remained stable year-on-year [14]. Summary by Sections Offline Retail Performance - In Q3 2025, offline retail sales in Guangzhou showed a double-digit decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a slight recovery in sales during the first three days of Golden Week [10]. - The average retail transaction value declined year-on-year, particularly for high-value products and cosmetics, while mid-to-low priced products remained stable [10]. Dining Performance - Dining performance during Golden Week showed divergence, with traditional Cantonese cuisine performing strongly, while Western and Japanese cuisines faced declines [11]. Cosmetics Sales - 70% of international cosmetics brands reported year-on-year sales declines, with DIOR experiencing a double-digit drop, while domestic brand MAOGEPING performed exceptionally well due to strong promotions [12]. Sports Brand Performance - In Q3 2025, NIKE and ADIDAS saw modest growth, while Li-Ning and Anta achieved double-digit growth, attributed to their participation in promotional activities during Golden Week [13]. Outdoor Brand Performance - Sales growth for outdoor brands was led by The North Face and Jack Wolfskin, both achieving double-digit growth, while other brands like Columbia saw mid-to-high single-digit growth [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile and apparel industry is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The textile manufacturing sector shows growth while the apparel and home textile sectors face performance pressure. In the first half of 2025, textile manufacturing and apparel/home textile revenues grew by 7.8% and declined by 6.4% year-on-year, respectively. The gross margin for textile manufacturing remained stable at 19.4%, with a net margin increase of 2.2% to 8.5%. In contrast, the apparel/home textile sector saw a slight gross margin increase of 0.1% to 46.1%, but a net margin decline of 1.1% to 8.5% [3][12][15] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Summary: Textile Manufacturing Growth, Apparel/Home Textile Performance Pressure - In the first half of 2025, textile manufacturing revenue increased by 7.8% while apparel/home textile revenue decreased by 6.4%. The gross margin for textile manufacturing was 19.4%, and the net margin improved to 8.5%. The apparel/home textile sector's gross margin was 46.1%, with a net margin of 8.5% [3][12][15] 2. Sports Apparel: Industry Maintains Growth, Brand Differentiation - Sports brands continued to see revenue growth around 10%, while non-sports apparel brands mostly experienced revenue declines. The online channel outperformed offline, with some brands maintaining growth in direct sales [3][5] 3. Casual Home Textiles: Demand Under Pressure, Online Channels and New Business Models Leading Growth - The casual home textile sector continues to face demand pressure, but online channels and new business models are driving some growth [3][5] 4. Contract Manufacturing: Revenue Steady Amid Tariff Policy Impact, Profitability Stable - The textile manufacturing sector maintained steady revenue growth despite tariff policy disruptions. Major contract manufacturers like Huayi and Shenzhou reported full orders, with revenue growth exceeding 10% [3][5][20] 5. Textile Materials: Tariff Policy Affects Client Order Caution, Profitability Varies - The textile materials sector is experiencing varied profitability due to cautious ordering from clients influenced by tariff policies [3][5] 6. Q3 Report Outlook: Brand Trends Stabilizing, Manufacturing Order and Shipment Improvement - The apparel/home textile sector is expected to see improved revenue growth in Q3 compared to Q2, while the textile manufacturing sector anticipates better order and shipment performance following tariff policy stabilization [3][5] 7. Investment Recommendations - Focus on fundamentally sound, undervalued leaders in the market. For sports apparel, brands like Anta Sports, Xtep International, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees are recommended. In textile manufacturing, companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group are highlighted for their resilience and potential for profit improvement [5][6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant transformation in China's sports and outdoor industry, driven by changing social structures, health awareness, and the impact of the pandemic, marking what is perceived as a "golden decade" for the sector [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sports and outdoor market in China is seen as a reflection of consumption upgrades and a window into social cultural transformations [2] - By the end of 2024, the number of sports venues in China is expected to exceed 4.84 million, with per capita sports venue area reaching 3.0 square meters, surpassing the "14th Five-Year Plan" target [3] - The "National Fitness Plan (2021-2025)" aims for 38.5% of the population to engage in regular physical activity by 2025, with the current participation rate at 37.2% as of September 2024 [3] Group 2: Consumer Segmentation - Consumers in the sports market are categorized into four segments: Passionate Participants, Active Engagers, Exploratory Tryouts, and Casual Participants [4][5][6] - Passionate Participants, making up over half of the market, are highly engaged and demand professional gear and cultural recognition [4] - Active Engagers, accounting for about 30%, show potential for deeper engagement, while Exploratory Tryouts and Casual Participants represent opportunities for brands to expand their offerings [5][6] Group 3: Lifestyle Integration - Sports have become an integral part of daily life, with walking and jogging participation rates reaching 94% [7] - The blurring of boundaries between sports venues and everyday environments necessitates brands to provide adaptable gear for various settings [8] - Social dynamics are reshaping consumer behavior, with 57% of consumers participating in offline sports community activities, emphasizing the importance of community for brand loyalty [8] Group 4: Market Growth and Trends - The Chinese sports footwear and apparel market is projected to reach 542.5 billion yuan by 2024, growing at 10% year-on-year [9] - Domestic brands like Anta and Li Ning are gaining traction through cultural narratives and technological innovation, while international brands are focusing on localization [9] - Functionality remains the primary consideration for consumers, with 95% prioritizing performance features in their purchases [9] Group 5: Consumer Preferences and Values - 61% of consumers prefer domestic brands, valuing technological innovation and cultural narratives over mere status symbols [10] - The shift in consumer mindset indicates that national confidence is becoming a significant market driver, with local brands focusing on quality and values as a long-term strategy [10] - Future growth in the sports and outdoor market is expected to come from lower-tier cities and the aging population, with specific product needs emerging for these demographics [10] Group 6: Future Directions - The article identifies three key future directions for sports and outdoor brands: balancing functionality with fashion, resonating with consumer values, and expanding into diverse demographics and scenarios [11] - The evolution from "national fitness" to "lifestyle integration" signifies a broader cultural and industrial transformation, where brands must find equilibrium between functionality, culture, and social engagement [11]

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a revenue increase of 3.3% year-on-year for H1 2025, but net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 11% [1] - The company declared a dividend of 33.59 cents per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 50% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 reached 14.817 billion RMB, with wholesale revenue growing by 5.0% to 6.481 billion RMB, while direct sales revenue fell by 4.3% to 3.234 billion RMB [1] - E-commerce revenue increased by 6.5% to 5.102 billion RMB, maintaining good growth [1] - Gross margin for H1 2025 was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations of further pressure on gross margin due to increased discounts [1] Product Category Performance - Growth was primarily driven by running and training categories, both achieving a 15% increase in revenue [2] - Sales of professional running shoes exceeded 14 million pairs, with core series sales surpassing 5.26 million pairs [2] - The sports lifestyle category declined by 7%, and the basketball category saw a 20% revenue drop, indicating ongoing adjustments [2] Store and Channel Strategy - As of June 30, the total number of stores was 6,099, with a net decrease of 18 stores since the beginning of the year [2] - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a focus on planned new store openings [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to face pressure from the consumer environment, but H1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 [3] - The target price for 2025 is set at 22.6 HKD, based on a 22 times PE ratio [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a 3% revenue growth but an 11% decline in profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on optimizing channel structure and investing in marketing resources for events like the Olympics, while maintaining a target for stable revenue and high single-digit net profit margin by 2025 [1][3] Revenue and Profit Performance - The company's revenue increased by 3.3% year-on-year to 14.817 billion, while net profit decreased by 11% to 1.737 billion; the board proposed an interim dividend of 0.3359 per share, with a payout ratio of 50% [1][3] Category Performance - In the first half of 2025, the running and training categories achieved a 15% growth, with professional running shoes sales exceeding 14 million pairs; however, basketball sales declined by 20% [1][2] Channel Performance - E-commerce revenue grew by 7% to 4.3 billion (29% of total), while offline direct sales fell by 3% to 3.4 billion (23% of total); franchise revenue increased by 4% to 6.9 billion (47% of total) [2] Store Performance - As of June 2025, the total number of stores was 7,534, a decrease of 143 stores year-on-year; the average store size for flagship stores was 242 square meters, with an average monthly sales of 300,000, slightly down from 310,000 in the first half of 2024 [2] Inventory Management - The company's channel inventory grew at a low single-digit rate year-on-year, maintaining a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio of 4 months, with 82% of channel inventory being new products within 6 months [2] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50%, while the management and sales expense ratio fell by 0.7 percentage points to 34.2%; the operating profit margin also declined by 0.2 percentage points to 16.5% [3] Future Projections - The management maintains a target for stable revenue by 2025, with projected revenues of 28.74 billion, 29.96 billion, and 31.11 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 0%, 4%, and 4% respectively; net profit projections are 2.38 billion, 2.53 billion, and 2.72 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 7%, and 7% [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 22.6 for 2025, reflecting a 22x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's revenue for the first half of 2025 increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching RMB 148.17 billion. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11% [1][2]. - The company declared a dividend of RMB 0.3359 per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 50% [1][4]. - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by the running and training categories, which saw a 15% increase in sales. In contrast, the basketball category experienced a 20% decline [3][4]. Revenue Performance - The wholesale business recorded a 5.0% increase in revenue to RMB 64.81 billion, while direct sales revenue fell by 4.3% to RMB 32.34 billion. E-commerce revenue grew by 6.5% to RMB 51.02 billion, indicating strong performance in online sales [2][3]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased discounting pressures in both online and offline channels [2][4]. Product Category Analysis - The running and training categories led growth, with professional running shoe sales exceeding 14 million pairs in the first half of the year. The three core series—Ultra Light, Red Rabbit, and Flying Electric—together sold over 5.26 million pairs [3][4]. - The sports lifestyle category saw a decline of 7%, while the basketball category is undergoing adjustments, with expectations of future growth following the signing of a new brand ambassador [3][4]. Store and Channel Strategy - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of Li Ning's retail stores was 6,099, reflecting a net decrease of 18 stores since the beginning of the year. The company continues to optimize its channel structure and plans to expand new store layouts as per its strategy [3][4]. Financial Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be RMB 0.94, RMB 1.07, and RMB 1.18, respectively, with an upward revision from previous estimates [1][4][5]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 0.2% for 2025, 6.3% for 2026, and 4.7% for 2027, indicating a cautious outlook [5][10].