"上半年经济实现5.3%的增速，全年经济目标实现压力不大。"中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长 章俊近日接受记者专访时表示。 具体看有以下四大优势： 超大规模市场优势。中国拥有14亿人口的庞大消费群体，为内需增长提供强劲支撑。这不仅能缓冲外部 需求波动，还能通过扩大内需战略激活经济潜力。 完整的产业体系优势。作为全球唯一拥有联合国所有工业门类的国家，中国具备高度配套的产业链和供 应链，这极大地降低了生产成本、增强了抵御风险的能力，并通过产业集群效应促进了新质生产力发 展。 上半年经济数据公布后，多家国际机构上调了对中国经济增长的预期，其中，摩根士丹利和巴克莱将中 国今年GDP增速预测上调至近5%，澳新银行则将中国今年GDP增速预测上调至5.1%。 四大优势构筑中国经济内生驱动力 章俊指出，全球经济放缓，与其他经济体相比，中国经济最大的优势在于综合性的内生驱动力，主要体 现在超大规模市场、完整的产业体系、科技创新人才红利以及政策稳定性与连续性的协同效应。 科技创新与人才红利优势。中国积累了庞大的科研人才和工程师队伍，研发投入位居世界前列，推动了 基础研究和应用技术的突破。这为经济增长注入新动能，并提升全球竞争 ...

中国经济"半年报"即将发布之际，外资机构密集公布下半年经济展望。在对中国经济相关展望中，"上 调预期""韧性充足"成为高频词汇。 近期，高盛、德意志银行、摩根士丹利等国际机构纷纷上调2025年中国经济增速预测。回暖的数字，彰 显着中国经济的韧性与活力，同时也是政策效果、市场表现与增长潜力的综合反映。 经济增长韧性充足 一段时间以来，国际机构纷纷上调中国经济预期。高盛日前在北京举行宏观和股票策略分享会时表示， 中国经济短期增长韧性仍足，预计今年上半年中国GDP增速有望达到5.2%，且仍有上行空间。5月中 旬，高盛曾上调了二季度和下半年的中国GDP环比增速预测，并将2025年全年GDP增速预测上调了0.6 个百分点。 高盛中国经济学家王立升表示，出口与部分制造业投资是今年宏观经济增长超预期的部分；同时，在消 费品以旧换新等政策带动下，宏观经济增长动能从出口拉动向政策驱动的内需转换已显示出一定信号， 这一趋势在下半年或将更明显。 摩根士丹利研究部近日发布中国经济和股市年中展望报告，分别将今明两年的中国经济增速上调0.3个 百分点和0.2个百分点。德意志银行集团研究团队将2025年中国GDP增长预测上调0.2个百分点 ...

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 张智 北京报道 5月份，经济运行呈现总体平稳、稳中有进的发展态势。 "5月，规模以上工业增加值、服务业生产指数、社会消费品零售总额等指标增速基本上保持总体稳定，显示出生 产需求总体稳定。从就业情况来看，5月份全国城镇调查失业率为5%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。从物价情况看， 受到国际输入性因素和部分食品价格下降影响，5月份CPI同比小幅下降，但降幅与上月持平；从扣除食品和能源 的核心CPI来看，涨幅比上月有所扩大，显示出市场供求关系基本稳定。从上述情况看，都表现出5月份经济运行 总体平稳。"国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖6月16日在国新办发布会上表示。 不过，远东资信首席宏观研究员张林对《华夏时报》记者表示，5月宏观经济运行喜忧参半，尽管存在不少亮点， 但仍有出口扰动、透支效应、"低价"拖累等问题需要警惕。 "我们预计，二季度经济相较一季度将有所回落，全年可能呈现前高中低的走势，需要重点关注经济的波动。"浙 商证券首席经济学家李超表示。 宏观经济部分指标继续改善 5月份，在各项政策支持下，企业积极调整应变，促进了工业生产较快增长。 ...

Core Insights - The e-commerce logistics index in China rose to 111.6 points in May, indicating a steady increase in both supply and demand [1][2] - The total business volume index for e-commerce logistics reached 130.2 points, marking a 0.8 point increase from the previous month [1] - The rural e-commerce logistics business volume index also increased to 129.6 points, reflecting a 0.6 point rise [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand sides showed steady growth, with the total business volume index and rural business volume index hitting new highs for the year [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy boosted demand for home appliances and communication equipment [2] - Companies are enhancing their supply capabilities in anticipation of mid-year promotional activities, as indicated by a 0.2 point increase in the personnel index [1] Logistics Efficiency - The logistics timeliness index rose to 101.2 points, surpassing 100 for the first time this year, indicating improved service efficiency among e-commerce logistics companies [1] - The inventory turnover rate index increased by 0.2 points, suggesting faster inventory turnover as demand rises [1] - The market feedback remains positive, with a 0.4 point increase in the satisfaction index [1] Future Outlook - The easing of monetary policy is expected to provide significant support for the implementation of consumption-promoting policies, enhancing the vitality of the e-commerce market [2] - With major e-commerce platforms preparing for mid-year shopping promotions, the logistics index in June is anticipated to rise further [2]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 对于 4 月以来的经济情况，重点总结两方面的内容。 1 、经济的不变之处来自政策的"补"与出口的"抢" ，包括 4 个方面。投资端 1-4 月设备购置对全部投资增 长的贡献率为 64.5% ；消费端 4 月份家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类、通讯器材类、建 筑及装潢材料类商品零售额对社零的贡献率为 27.4% ；生产端 4 月装备制造业对全部规模以上工业生产增 长的贡献率达 55.9% 。贸易端 4 月贸易顺差增速为 33.6% ，略低于 1 季度，但依然处于偏高水平。 1 季 度，贸易顺差对 GDP 的贡献率为 39.5% 。 2 、经济的变化之处来自地产与制造业 。 对于地产，自去年 9 月政治局会议以来，最强的五个城市（ 70 大中城市内，以二手住宅价格上涨月数和幅度为标准）二手住宅量价动能有所趋缓。对于制造业，其内部 物价压力较大的原材料业（本轮 PPI 自 2022 年 5 月以来，原材料加工业下跌幅度较大），其投资增速快 速放缓， 1-4 ...

Economic Growth - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 6.0%, indicating strong economic growth despite external pressures [1][2] - The overall economic performance in April reflects a stable growth trajectory, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and diversifying exports [1][3] Export Performance - Despite a 21% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in April, China's total exports in dollar terms grew by 8.1%, exceeding market expectations [1][3] - The increase in exports is attributed to a "grab export" phenomenon to markets outside the U.S., resilient external demand, and the timing of U.S. tariff implementations [3][6] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The consumption upgrade policy, particularly the "old-for-new" program, has significantly boosted retail sales in categories such as home appliances and furniture, with growth rates of 38.8% and 26.9% respectively [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year in April, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [2][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment maintained a growth rate of 4% in the first four months, supported by infrastructure investment, while manufacturing investment grew by 8.8% [4] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 10.3%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector, despite overall stability in the real estate market [8][9] Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, aiming for sustained economic growth [1][7] - There is a call for expanding consumption policies to include service consumption and products transitioning from export to domestic sales [7][8]

Economic Recovery - The economic recovery in China is supported by a solid foundation, with retail sales and service production indices growing by 4.7% and 5.9% respectively from January to April, showing a slight acceleration compared to the previous quarter [1] - Exports increased by 7.5% and industrial added value grew by 6.4% during the same period, indicating overall stability despite external shocks [1] Policy Support - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has intensified, with significant contributions from equipment investment, which rose by 18.2% year-on-year from January to April, accounting for 64.5% of total investment growth [2] - Recent measures include reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, along with the establishment of new policy financial tools to support technological innovation and consumption [2] Consumer Potential - Various regions and departments are actively promoting consumption through special initiatives, with retail sales in categories related to home appliances and cultural products contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall retail growth [2] - Service retail sales grew by 5.1% in the first four months, with domestic travel during the "May Day" holiday increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a strengthening consumer demand [2] Innovation and Industry Growth - There is a strong push for the integration of technological and industrial innovation, with high-tech manufacturing value added growing by 10% in April, outpacing overall industrial growth [3] - The production of smart drones surged by 74.2% and new energy vehicle output increased by 38.9%, reflecting advancements in key technology sectors [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Supported by multiple favorable factors, China's economy is expected to maintain a stable and progressive development trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the effects of policies aimed at boosting consumption are becoming evident, leading to a sustained increase in consumption's contribution to economic growth [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Effects - Various regions and departments are actively implementing the Central Committee's decisions to boost consumption through special actions and the "two new" policies [1] - The innovation of diverse consumption scenarios and the active expansion of service consumption are showing positive results [1] Group 2: Consumption Data - In April, the retail sales of home appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, communication equipment, and construction materials collectively contributed 1.4 percentage points to the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods [1] - From January to April, service retail sales grew by 5.1%, accelerating for two consecutive months [1] - During the "May Day" holiday, the number of domestic travelers increased by 6.4% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - As the effects of policies continue to manifest and consumption momentum strengthens, the contribution of consumption to economic growth is expected to enhance further [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the positive momentum in China's key engineering projects and overall economic performance in the first quarter of 2025, driven by increased investment and innovation in various sectors [1][2][3]. Investment and Project Development - In the first quarter, the number of engineering projects reported for work injury insurance reached 39,000, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with a total project cost of 1.9 trillion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [1]. - March saw a significant acceleration in project construction, with 18,000 projects reported, accounting for 46.5% of the quarterly total, and a total cost of 800 billion yuan, representing 43.9% of the quarterly total [3]. Innovation and High-Technology Growth - High-tech industry sales revenue grew by 13.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, with digital product manufacturing and digital technology application sectors seeing increases of 12% and 11.6%, respectively [1]. - The report emphasizes the role of tax incentives in supporting technological innovation and the development of new productive forces [2]. Consumer Market Dynamics - The health consumption sector experienced significant growth, with sales revenue from elderly care services increasing by 65.5% and nursing institution services by 23.9% year-on-year [3]. - The "May Day" holiday period saw a 15.2% year-on-year increase in sales revenue across consumer-related industries, driven by policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods [3]. Manufacturing Sector Performance - Manufacturing sales revenue rose by 4.8% year-on-year, accounting for 29.1% of total national sales, with equipment manufacturing growing by 9.7% [4]. - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sales increased by 12.1% and 9.7%, respectively, indicating a shift towards high-end and digital transformation in the manufacturing sector [4][5]. Tax Policy and Support Measures - The tax authorities are committed to implementing tax and fee support policies to enhance service levels and promote high-quality economic development [4][5]. - The report indicates that the tax department will continue to optimize tax payment services and respond to the needs of manufacturing enterprises, facilitating their transition to high-end, intelligent, and green development [5].