Economic Performance - In May, the economic growth rate is estimated to be around 5.5%, consistent with the previous month[11] - Demand improvement is primarily driven by consumption, while investment and exports show marginal slowdown[11] - The supply side shows marginal improvement mainly due to a recovery in service production[11] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and benefiting from holiday effects and consumption policies[13] - Policy-driven consumption categories, such as home appliances and communication equipment, showed significant growth rates of 53% and 33% respectively[17] - The optimization of the tax refund policy for outbound tourists led to a 116% increase in tax refund applications in the first month of implementation[20] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to May is 3.7%, below expectations, with real estate investment declining by 10.7%[23] - Manufacturing investment growth in May was 8.5%, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[36] - Real estate sales area decreased by 3.62% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market[26] External Factors - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to impact market sentiment and investment decisions[2] - If the 90-day tariff exemption ends without further negotiations, the tariff rate could rise to 54%, exacerbating external demand shocks[5] - The potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could create new investment opportunities in the capital market[2]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 增长无惧外部环境变化，未来波动预计小 于预期——5 月经济数据点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 出口并未失速，且后续新出口订单仍值得 期待——5 月进出口点评 2025-06-12 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 5 月半数时间未被《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》所覆盖，因此市场对经济数据 的预期偏低，同时考虑到未来国际环境变化，下半年预期更弱，但我们认为，不仅 5 月增长数据具有韧性，且结构亮点显著，内需与科技升级能够支撑全年经济达到 目标： ⚫ 生产数据有下行但不多， ...