格隆汇1月9日｜广期所：经研究决定，自2026年1月13日结算时起，铂、钯期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整 为16%，交易保证金标准调整为18%。如遇上述涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金标准与现行执行的涨跌停板 幅度、交易保证金标准不同时，则按两者中幅度大、标准高的执行。 ...

如遇上述涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金标准与现行执行的涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金标准不同时，则按两 者中幅度大、标准高的执行。 特此通知。 广期所公告〔2026〕2号 各会员单位： 经研究决定，自2026年1月13日结算时起，铂、钯期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为16%，交易保证金标准 调整为18%。 广州期货交易所 2026年1月9日 来源：广州期货交易所 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology has planned ten key tasks for 2026, including rectifying "involution - style" competition, supporting AI research, and launching the "Broadband Upgrade" project [2] - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met to discuss a proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", with a potential strong US - Ukraine security agreement under negotiation [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has provided compliance guidance on regulating price competition in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the price limit and margin standards for certain futures contracts during the 2026 New Year's Day holiday [2] - The dates for the 2026 National Two Sessions have been set, with the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference starting on March 4 and the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress starting on March 5 [3] 2. Plate Performance - **Key Focus**: Urea, Shanghai copper, Shanghai silver, crude oil, and lithium carbonate [4] - **Night - session Performance**: Different commodity futures sectors showed varying degrees of increase, with the precious metals sector having a 34.79% increase, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector at 25.43%, and the coal, coke, steel, and ore sector at 9.89% [4] 3. Plate Position - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, but specific data is not clearly presented in text [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: Most major stock indices showed positive daily, monthly, and annual returns, with the CSI 500 having a relatively high annual increase of 30.27% [6] - **Fixed - income**: Treasury futures generally had small daily increases but negative annual returns [6] - **Commodity**: There were significant differences in performance. For example, the London spot gold had an annual increase of 72.72%, while the CRB commodity index had an annual decrease of 20.88% [6] - **Others**: The US dollar index had a negative annual return of - 9.63%, and the CBOE volatility index also showed a significant annual decline [6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the exchange indicates adjustments to the price limits and margin standards for various futures contracts, effective from December 30, 2025, and January 5, 2026, reflecting changes in trading conditions for industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, platinum, and palladium futures [1]. Group 1: Futures Contract Adjustments - Industrial silicon futures contract price limits and margin standards will remain unchanged [1] - Polysilicon futures contract price limits will remain unchanged, while the speculative trading margin and hedging margin will be adjusted to 15% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures contract price limit will be adjusted to 10%, with speculative trading margin set to 12% and hedging margin to 11% [1] - Platinum and palladium futures contract price limits will be adjusted to 13%, with both speculative trading margin and hedging margin set to 15% [1] Group 2: Trading Resumption - Trading will resume on January 5, 2026, with the price limits and margin standards for industrial silicon futures remaining unchanged if there are no unilateral price limits on the contract with the largest open interest [1] - For polysilicon, platinum, and palladium futures, the price limits and margin standards will maintain the holiday period standards [1] - The price limits and margin standards for lithium carbonate futures will revert to pre-adjustment levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the price limit and margin standards for various futures contracts, effective around the New Year 2026, aimed at managing market risks and ensuring stability in trading [1] Group 1: Adjustments to Futures Contracts - From December 30, 2025, the price limit and margin standards for industrial silicon futures will remain unchanged [1] - For polysilicon futures, the price limit will remain unchanged, while the speculative trading margin and hedging margin will be adjusted to 15% [1] - The price limit for lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted to 10%, with the speculative trading margin set at 12% and the hedging margin at 11% [1] - The price limits for platinum and palladium futures will be adjusted to 13%, with both speculative and hedging margins set at 15% [1] Group 2: Resumption of Trading - Trading will resume on January 5, 2026, with the price limit and margin standards for industrial silicon futures remaining unchanged if there are no continuous quotes on the first trading day after the price limit is reached [1] - The price limits and margin standards for polysilicon, platinum, and palladium futures will remain at the holiday period standards [1] - The price limit and margin standards for lithium carbonate futures will revert to pre-adjustment levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced adjustments to the price limit and margin standards for various futures contracts, effective from December 30, 2025, and January 5, 2026, in accordance with its risk management regulations [1] Group 1: Adjustments to Futures Contracts - The price limit and margin standards for industrial silicon futures will remain unchanged [1] - For polysilicon futures, the price limit will remain unchanged, while the speculative trading margin and hedging margin will be adjusted to 15% [1] - The price limit for lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted to 10%, with the speculative trading margin set at 12% and the hedging margin at 11% [1] - The price limits for platinum and palladium futures will be adjusted to 13%, with both speculative and hedging margins set at 15% [1] Group 2: Resumption of Trading - Trading will resume on January 5, 2026, with the price limits and margin standards for industrial silicon futures remaining unchanged [1] - The price limits and margin standards for polysilicon, platinum, and palladium futures will maintain the holiday period standards [1] - The price limits and margin standards for lithium carbonate futures will revert to pre-adjustment levels [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum and palladium prices hit the daily limit across all contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on December 22, 2025, driven by domestic long - term funds. The prices have significant increases, and they are natural multi - allocation varieties under the influence of fundamentals and the macro - level [2]. - In the super bull cycle of precious metals, the high - to - low shift of funds gives platinum and palladium higher premiums. Their investment and consumption have great growth potential, and the price logic affects the supply - demand expectations of the fundamentals [3]. - The supply side is brittle, and the large - scale application prospects of hydrogen energy boost consumption expectations. There will be supply shortages for platinum and palladium in 2026 [4]. - The current precious metal and non - ferrous metal market is a re - balance of "money" and "resources". Platinum and palladium, with high import dependence in China, are suitable for multi - allocation [6]. - The large price difference between domestic and foreign platinum and palladium will attract arbitrage trading, and the price difference is expected to converge [7]. - In the long - term, platinum and palladium follow the super bull cycle of precious metals. In 2026, platinum is more likely to break through historical highs. In the short - term, they may achieve most of the annual increase, and the mid - term strategy is to allocate more on dips [8]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Higher Premiums for Platinum and Palladium due to High - to - Low Fund Shift in the Precious Metal Super Bull Cycle - In the context of the global situation, precious metals have allocation value. Gold and silver price increases provide higher premium space for platinum and palladium. The investment and consumption of platinum and palladium have great growth potential, and price and supply - demand expectations interact [3]. II. Brittle Supply Side and Boosted Consumption Expectations from Hydrogen Energy Application - The "15th Five - Year Plan" promotes the development of hydrogen energy. The supply of platinum and palladium is highly concentrated. It is expected that in 2026, platinum will face a supply shortage of about 23 tons, and palladium will have a supply shortage of about 3 tons [4]. III. Re - balance of "Money" and "Resources" - The current market is a re - balance of "money" and "resources". China has a high import dependence on platinum and palladium, so they are suitable for multi - allocation [6]. IV. Convergence of Domestic and Foreign Price Differences - Due to the high import dependence of platinum and palladium in China and relatively easy import procedures, the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets will attract arbitrage trading. Import merchants and speculative funds can lock in profits through cross - market arbitrage [7]. V. Market Outlook - Platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have reached new highs. Platinum is more likely to break through historical highs in 2026. They follow the precious metal bull cycle. In the short - term, they may achieve most of the annual increase, and the mid - term strategy is to allocate more on dips, while being vigilant against the "long - killing - long" market [8].

Core Insights - Platinum prices have surpassed $2000 per ounce for the first time since 2008, with a year-to-date increase of over 120% [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The significant rise in platinum prices is closely linked to changes in market supply and demand structures [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a supply shortage in the global platinum market for the third consecutive year in 2025, with a shortfall of approximately 22 tons [1] - South Africa, a major producer of platinum, faces structural challenges such as aging mines and power shortages, which limit production capacity [1] Industrial Demand - Platinum's industrial properties support its demand, particularly in automotive catalytic converters and the hydrogen energy sector [1] - The ongoing global green transition enhances the market's interest in platinum's applications in fuel cells and electrolysis for hydrogen production [1] - High gold prices this year have also increased platinum's attractiveness as an alternative precious metal [1] Market Developments - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange launched platinum and palladium futures contracts on November 27, which is seen as a move to improve the domestic derivatives system and provide risk management tools for industry chain enterprises [1]

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is focusing on enhancing its services for the Chinese market, which accounts for 30% of its trading volume, and is considering the introduction of the renminbi as a settlement currency in the future [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Strategy and Developments - LME has suspended non-USD denominated metal options trading to modernize its options market, as all actual trades are currently conducted in USD [3][4] - The exchange is actively working to improve the liquidity of its options market by introducing electronic trading and optimizing collateral services for renminbi [3][4] - A roadmap for the development of the options market has been released, aiming to enhance liquidity, transparency, and market participation by introducing electronic trading for monthly contracts by the end of 2026 [4] Group 2: Sustainability Initiatives - LME is exploring pricing mechanisms for "green metals" and has launched a roadmap for sustainable metal premiums, focusing on responsible sourcing and carbon footprint standards [5][6] - The exchange has implemented new regulations requiring aluminum producers to upload carbon emission data to facilitate compliance with the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) [6] Group 3: Market Observations and Trends - LME does not predict metal price trends but acknowledges the growing demand for copper in sectors like electric vehicles and AI data centers, which is attracting investor interest [8] - The exchange has noted the successful introduction of physical settlement contracts for lithium by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which LME is not currently pursuing due to the unique advantages of the region [8][9]

Core Insights - The launch of platinum and palladium futures and options contracts by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27 and 28, 2025, respectively, fills a gap in China's derivatives market for these metals and establishes an efficient pricing mechanism for domestic platinum and palladium [1][4] - The initial trading day saw palladium prices rise by 1.53% and platinum by 6.25%, indicating strong market participation and trading volume [1] - The demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive catalytic sector is significant, with platinum accounting for 40% and palladium for 80% of the demand in 2024 [1] Industry Impact - The introduction of these contracts aligns with China's industrial strategy and is expected to accelerate the development of the domestic supply chain [4] - The new products provide effective risk management and hedging tools for market participants, enhancing the capital market's focus on the investment attributes and price volatility of palladium and platinum [4] - The low abundance of platinum and palladium in the earth's crust, primarily concentrated in South Africa, Russia, and North America, highlights China's high dependency on imports, particularly from South Africa and Russia [1]