证券研究报告 金工 黄金超买风险或得到一定的释放 2025 年 11 月 23 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 期限结构模拟组合创新高，近期持仓做多工业金属板块 商品融合策略近两周上涨 0.97%，今年以来上涨 3.16%。在三个子策略中， 商品期限结构模拟组合近期表现较好，近两周上涨 2.31%，今年以来上涨 7.46%，并于上周五（2025-11-24）创下回测以来的净值新高。期限结构模 拟组合中，近两周收益贡献靠前的品种是玻璃、甲醇、PVC，收益贡献分别 为 0.46%、0.25%、0.16%，近期玻璃跌幅较大，期限结构组合因做空玻璃 而获得较多正收益；近两周收益贡献靠后的品种是橡胶、白糖、乙二醇，收 益贡献分别为-0.08%、-0.09%、-0.17%。期限结构模拟组合最新持仓中， 主要做多工业金属板块，主要做空能源化工板块，和前期持仓相比，工业金 属的多头仓位和能源化工的空头仓位均有所上升。具体品种看，截面仓单模 拟组合在铁矿石、菜油、玉米、沪铜、沪铝上配置了较高比例的多头仓位， 而在橡胶、螺纹钢、PTA、塑料上配置了较高的空头仓位。 黄金周度 RSI 指标回落至 70 以下，超买风险或得到一定的释放 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have fluctuated, recently trading below $4,000 per ounce due to a strong dollar and reduced chances of a U.S. interest rate cut, impacting demand for bullion [1] - In October, gold futures reached $4,000 per ounce for the first time, with year-to-date returns around 50%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, which is up about 15% [2] - Gold's performance in 2025 follows a strong 2024, where it recorded a 26% annual increase, the best since 2010 [3] Tax Implications - Investment profits from physical gold and gold-tracking funds are taxed differently than traditional assets, potentially leading to higher tax bills for investors in top brackets [3][4] - Long-term capital gains on collectibles, including physical gold, are taxed at a top rate of 28%, which is higher than the 20% rate for long-term capital gains on stocks [5][6] - Gold futures contracts have a different tax structure, with a top federal tax rate of 26.8%, calculated as 60% of profits taxed at 20% and 40% at 37% [7][12] Investment Considerations - Investors should be aware that not all gold ETFs are taxed the same, and those holding physical gold or collectibles face higher tax rates [6][8] - Holding gold in a taxable brokerage account incurs these tax implications, while gold held in tax-preferred retirement accounts like IRAs is exempt from these rules [9] - The complexity of tax filings for gold futures funds, which often require K-1 forms, may deter some investors despite potential tax advantages [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are seen as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, with analysts maintaining a long-term optimistic outlook on gold as a valuable asset in uncertain macroeconomic conditions [1][3][9]. Market Performance - Since 2025, international gold prices have consistently broken historical highs, leading to a surge in gold bar sales in China, with consumption reaching 264.24 tons in the first half of the year, a 23.69% increase year-on-year [2]. - As of October 31, the London gold spot price hovered around $4,000 per ounce, down approximately 8% from its monthly peak [3]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange reported that the gold futures market in October exhibited healthier performance compared to previous periods, with significant trading activity and new positions being established despite volatility [6][7]. Investor Behavior - Retail investors are increasingly returning to the gold market, with trading volumes for micro gold contracts and one-ounce futures contracts more than doubling [7]. - The current market dynamics show a rare phenomenon where both the stock market and gold prices are rising simultaneously, attracting diverse market participants [7]. Economic Factors - Analysts attribute the recent gold price adjustments to several factors, including a rapid previous increase in prices, rising dollar rates, and easing geopolitical tensions [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent policy decisions, including a 25 basis point rate cut, have influenced market sentiment, although a hawkish tone from the Fed has tempered expectations for ongoing monetary easing [4][5]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts believe that while short-term risks exist, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with the potential for gold to serve as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [9][10]. - The role of gold in asset allocation is evolving, with it increasingly seen as a substitute for sovereign debt in risk management strategies [8][10].

Report on Stock Index Futures Price Difference Core Information - On October 27, 2025, the report presented data on stock index futures price differences, including price differences between futures and spot, across different periods, and among different varieties [1]. - For price differences between futures and spot, the IF was -0.34, the IH was 2.78, the IC was -98.73, and the IM was -121.24 [1]. - Regarding cross - period price differences, there were various values for different combinations such as “next month - current month”, “far month - current month” etc. For example, the “next month - current month” of F was -13.60 [1]. - In terms of cross - variety ratios, IC/IF was 1.5448, IC/IH was 2.3486, etc. [1]. Report on Bond Futures Basis and Price Difference Core Information - On October 24, 2025, the report provided data on bond futures basis, cross - period price differences, and cross - variety price differences [2]. - For basis, the TS was 1.2902, the TF was 1.5400, the T was 1.6139, and the TL was 1.7674 [2]. - Regarding cross - period price differences, different combinations like “current quarter - next quarter” had specific values. For example, the “current quarter - next quarter” of TS was 0.0780 [2]. - In terms of cross - variety price differences, TS - TF was -3.2830, TS - T was -5.6730, etc. [2]. Report on Precious Metals Futures and Spot Core Information - On October 24, 2025, the report included data on domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [3]. - Domestic futures closing prices: the AU2512 contract was 938.10, and the AG2512 contract was 11332 [3]. - Foreign futures closing prices: the COMEX gold主力合约 was 4126.90, and the COMEX silver主力合约 was 48.41 [3]. - Spot prices: London gold was 4111.56, and London silver was 48.62 [3]. - Basis: “gold TD - Shanghai gold主力” was -2.77, “silver TD - Shanghai silver主力” was -15, etc. [3]. - Price ratios: COMEX gold/silver was 85.25, and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 82.78 [3]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Futures and Spot Core Information - On October 27, 2025, the report covered spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [4]. - Spot quotes: MAERSK Maersk was 2364 dollars/FEU, CMA CGM was 3425 dollars/FEU, etc. [4]. - Container shipping indices: SCFIS (European route) was 1140.38 points, SCFIS (US West route) was 863.46 points, etc. [4]. - Futures prices: EC2602 was 1601.0, EC2604 was 1179.6, etc. [4]. - Fundamental data: global container shipping capacity supply was 3327.99 million TEU, port on - time rate in Shanghai was 42.77%, etc. [4].

策略师们认为，今年黄金ETF的买盘热潮，不能完全用"贬值交易"（因担忧美元走弱而转向黄金）这一热门逻辑来解释。 "传统意义上的'贬值交易'并不包含'对冲股票风险'这一动机，但今年这一动机尤为明显——散户投资者同时买入股票与黄金，却避开了 长期债券（即传统上用于对冲股票风险的资产）。"帕尼吉佐格鲁及其团队称。 策略师们指出，2023年及2024年大部分时间里，散户投资者纷纷涌入长期债券（很可能是为对冲股价上涨风险），但今年即便股市持续 攀升，他们也未重现这一行为。相反，正如图表所示，黄金成为了他们的新选择。 对于厌倦了人工智能争议的人来说，本周黄金价格的大幅暴跌至少改变了讨论话题。 自周二黄金遭遇十多年来最大单日跌幅后，市场争论的焦点围绕"金价是否会重整旗鼓、再度冲高"展开。以高盛为例，该行仍坚持2026 年底金价达到每盎司4900美元的目标，并认为各国央行及机构投资者的需求将为金价带来上行风险。 "近期ETF资金流入速度及客户反馈显示，包括主权财富基金、各国央行、养老基金、私人财富管理机构及资产管理公司在内的众多长期 资本配置者，正计划增加黄金持仓，将其作为投资组合的战略性分散工具。"分析师莉娜·托马斯（Li ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic data shows a complex picture with some indicators rising and others falling, which may impact different industries differently. For example, GDP growth slowed slightly, while exports and imports showed positive growth [1]. - In the commodity market, there are significant fluctuations in metals, energy, and agricultural products. Gold prices dropped sharply, while oil prices rose due to various factors such as sanctions and inventory changes [3][9]. - The bond market is in a state of narrow - range consolidation, and the stock market shows a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling [22][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, up from 49.4% last month [1]. - Social financing scale in September 2025 was 35296 billion yuan, compared with 25660 billion yuan last year [1]. - M1 growth in September 2025 was 7.2% year - on - year, a significant increase from - 3.3% last year [1]. - CPI fell 0.3% year - on - year in September 2025, while PPI dropped 2.3% [1]. - Export and import values in September 2025 increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1]. Commodity Investment Metals - International gold prices tumbled over 6% on October 21, 2025, leading domestic gold retailers to cut prices [3]. - Some banks raised the investment threshold for gold accumulation products [4]. - Global physical gold ETFs had record inflows in Q3 2025, with total AUM reaching 4720 billion dollars [4]. - Citi expects copper prices to reach $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026 [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Vale's Q3 iron ore production was 9440 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase [8]. Energy and Chemicals - US oil and Brent crude prices rose due to expected sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US EIA crude inventory [9]. - Russia's oil company is increasing diesel and gasoline production [9]. - South Korea will reduce fuel tax relief from November [9]. Agricultural Products - The US government launched a plan to boost domestic beef production [11]. - India and the US are close to a trade deal that may lower US tariffs on Indian goods [12]. Financial News Open Market - The central bank conducted 1382 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 22, with a net injection of 947 billion yuan [13]. Key News - The China Fund Association is about to release a draft on public fund performance benchmarks [14]. - 11 provinces had per - capita disposable income over 30,000 yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with two new additions compared to last year [15]. - The central bank is expected to use various tools to adjust liquidity in Q4, and new policy - based financial instruments will support the economy [16]. - Hong Kong is promoting multiple financial initiatives, such as including REITs in the Stock Connect and expanding offshore RMB business [16][17]. Bond Market - The Chinese bond market was in narrow - range consolidation, with some bond prices rising and others falling [22]. - European and US bond yields showed different trends, with most European yields rising and US yields falling [25][26]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1245 on October 23, down 74 points from the previous day [27]. Research Reports - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the new policy - based financial tools can support infrastructure investment in the short term and promote economic transformation in the long term [28]. - Dongwu Fixed Income points out that the expansion of the Sci - tech Bond ETF creates opportunities for component bonds [28]. Stock Market - A - shares showed a mixed performance, with some sectors like real estate and banks rising, while others like electrolytes and gold falling [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.94%, with pharmaceutical and tech stocks generally declining [31].

Core Viewpoint - The new chairman of the London Bullion Market Association, Peter Zoellner, calls for the UK to restart gold futures trading, despite previous unsuccessful attempts in establishing derivative contracts in this $35 trillion global physical gold trading center [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global gold market would benefit from having "two or three well-liquid trading centers" [1]. - Previous attempts to launch gold futures contracts in London were deemed premature, but the current market conditions may be more favorable [1]. - Concerns among market participants regarding trading on U.S. exchanges have increased due to uncertainties stemming from fluctuating tariff policies [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - The London Metal Exchange launched a gold futures contract in 2017, which was closed five years later due to low trading volumes [2]. - Earlier attempts at establishing a "London Gold Futures Market" from 1982 to 1985 also failed due to insufficient trading activity [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Transparency - The London Bullion Market Association plays a crucial role in determining which gold meets the "good delivery" standards for delivery to London member vaults [2]. - The association is considering whether to disclose more pricing data, including forward contracts and real-time price data, to enhance market transparency [2]. - The association has been collecting forward contract price data and has been publishing the "Gofo" gold forward rate curve for the past 12 years [2]. Group 4: Current Market Trends - Gold prices have surged by 57% this year, currently hovering around $4,100 per ounce [2]. - Central bank purchases of gold are expected to continue driving prices upward, with limited alternative options available [2]. - Concerns regarding government bond markets and trade wars are influencing factors in the gold market [2][3]. Group 5: Market Perception and Innovation - There is a growing concern over the fiscal policies of major economies, with public debt rising dramatically [3]. - The perception of political alliances, trade policies, and fiscal and monetary policies is shifting globally, which may lead to price volatility [3]. - The gold market is defended against claims of being outdated, emphasizing its focus on safety and credibility over convenience [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced adjustments to the trading limits and margin requirements for gold and silver futures contracts, effective from October 21, 2025 [1] Group 1: Trading Limits - The price fluctuation limit for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 14% [1] - The adjustment aims to enhance market stability and risk management [1] Group 2: Margin Requirements - The margin requirement for holding positions will be set at 15% for hedging positions and 16% for general positions [1] - These changes are part of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's risk control management measures [1] Group 3: Regulatory Framework - Any further adjustments to margin requirements and trading limits will be based on the provisions outlined in the Shanghai Futures Exchange's risk control management regulations [1]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased the price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts to 14% and adjusted the margin requirements due to rising market sentiment and volatility in precious metals [1][5][6] - Gold has become the most crowded trade according to a recent Bank of America survey, with over 150 billion yuan in capital locked in the domestic commodity futures market [3][6] - Recent price movements in gold and silver have been unprecedented, with gold prices reaching a historical high of 4,378 USD/ounce and a year-to-date increase of nearly 65%, while silver prices have surged over 85% this year [5][6] Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice on October 17, requiring an increase in the price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts to 14% and adjusting the general margin requirement to 16% [1][5] - The exchange's actions are a response to complex international situations and increased uncertainty due to geopolitical factors, prompting a call for investors to exercise caution [5][6] Group 2 - The total capital in the precious metals futures market reached 154.75 billion yuan on October 17, with a daily inflow of 4.725 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in precious metals [6] - The significant accumulation of funds in the precious metals market suggests a potential bubble risk, but the exchange's margin adjustments serve as a protective measure for investors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices has led to an increase in fraudulent schemes, with various cases of scams reported as investors seek to capitalize on the rising market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge and Investor Behavior - As of October 17, the London spot gold price surpassed $4,350 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 66% [1]. - The rising gold prices have heightened investor enthusiasm, which has been exploited by illegal actors to set up scams [2][4]. Group 2: Types of Scams - Three prevalent types of scams identified include gold custody scams, rental rebate scams, and virtual investment scams [6][7]. - Gold custody scams involve jewelry stores enticing consumers to store gold with them, promising high returns, but often lack the necessary regulatory qualifications [6]. - Rental rebate scams lure consumers into leasing gold jewelry with promises of fixed rental returns, but these are typically Ponzi schemes [6]. - Virtual investment scams utilize fake trading platforms to promise high returns, manipulating data to create a false sense of profitability [7]. Group 3: Government Warnings and Legal Actions - Multiple local governments have issued warnings about the risks associated with gold investments, highlighting the need for public vigilance against high-yield traps [2][4]. - A notable case involved a company in Qingdao that illegally raised over 4 billion yuan through fraudulent gold investment schemes, resulting in significant losses for investors [9]. Group 4: Guidelines for Investors - Regulatory bodies have provided guidelines to help the public avoid scams, emphasizing the importance of verifying institutional qualifications and using legitimate investment channels [11]. - Legitimate gold investment options include purchasing physical gold from authorized dealers, investing in gold accumulation products through banks, and trading gold ETFs or futures through licensed firms [11].