Group 1 - The issue of counterfeit gold is sensitive and has been highlighted by multiple authoritative media outlets, indicating a growing concern in the market [1][3][5] - A recent incident involved a customer purchasing a gold bar from a bank, which was later found to be fake upon inspection, raising questions about the integrity of the gold supply chain [1][3] - Banks are currently investigating the situation and will provide an official announcement, but the exact point of failure in the gold verification process remains unclear [3][6] Group 2 - Historical cases of counterfeit gold have emerged, including a mining company that used fake gold to defraud financial institutions, amounting to over 10 billion [5][6] - The gold market in China is heavily regulated, with strict laws governing the buying and selling of gold, including the requirement that individuals can only sell gold back to the central bank [12][22] - Despite the regulations, there are loopholes that allow for informal transactions, leading to potential legal risks for individuals and businesses holding gold [23][26] Group 3 - The current regulatory framework still imposes significant restrictions on gold transactions, with the 1984 Gold and Silver Management Regulations remaining in effect [14][15][16] - Individuals are advised to purchase gold through licensed institutions to ensure legality, as buying from private individuals is considered illegal [22][27] - For those looking to invest in gold, alternatives such as gold futures contracts or ETFs are recommended over physical gold due to lower transaction costs and risks of counterfeiting [28][30]

报告摘要 开年以来黄金的表现位列大类资产前列，近期波动加大。关于黄金定价，目前研究多基于基本面角度，比如供求关系、全球货币体系变化、主要经济体赤字率、实 际利率等，我们这里想要补充的一个视角是交易层面。我们从十个维度——黄金价格形态、期货持仓结构、库存及其衍生指标、交割前瞻、期现基差、黄金租赁成 本、期限结构、期权未平仓合约对比、隐含波动率、ETF持仓变动初步构建了一套实时监测金价位置的指标体系。 指标一 （价格形态）：COMEX黄金期货RSI。RSI是相对强弱指数，对金价变动相对最敏感的是日线级别的6日RSI。常用的判断标准是以20\80分别为超卖、超买 区间。在黄金基本面仍处"顺风"时，RSI在强势行情中可能回调幅度并不会很大，甚至可能长时间维持在50以上。3月28日COMEX黄金期货6日RSI突破80提示黄金 具有"超买风险"，此后"超买状态"维持4个交易日。COMEX黄金收盘价自4月2日的3190.3美元/盎司回调6.0%至8日的2998.3美元/盎司。与此同时，4月2-8日，6日 RSI自87.04快速回落至31.55。4月中下旬以来，随着金价的上扬，RSI（6日）再度接近80阈值（4月21日为82 ...