Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are expected to remain stable above the 20 - day moving average, fluctuating within the range of $5000 - 5250 with narrowing volatility. Short - term out - of - the - money call options above 1200 yuan can be held [1]. - Silver prices continue to be weakly volatile under multiple factors, testing the support of the 60 - day moving average. The silver price range is $80 - 90, and out - of - the money call options above 23000 yuan can be held [1]. - Platinum and palladium prices are suppressed by the reversal of macro - financial attributes and demand expectations. They generally follow the weak volatility of gold and silver. Platinum prices fluctuate within the range of $2000 - 2200, and palladium prices fluctuate within the range of $1590 - 1690 [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1148.10 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - AG2606 contract closed at 22062 yuan/kilogram on March 12, down 0.87% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 564.65 on March 12, down 0.16% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 416.60 yuan/gram on March 12, down 1.80% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5084.10 on March 12, down 1.93% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 83.96 on March 12, down 2.28% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2130.70 dollars/ounce on March 12, down 1.96% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1638.00 on March 12, down 0.64% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 5077.94 on March 12, down 2.02% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 83.78 on March 12, down 2.27% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2150.00 dollars/ounce on March 12, down 2.49% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1618.90 on March 12, down 0.86% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1146.26 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.35% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 21851 yuan/kilogram on March 12, down 0.67% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 553 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.69% from the previous day [1]. Spreads - The spread of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.84 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 46.10% [1]. - The spread of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 211 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 60.60% [1]. - The spread of London gold - COMEX gold was - 9.13 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 75.60% [1]. - The spread of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.37 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 21.70% [1]. Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 60.56 on March 12, up 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 52.04 on March 12, up 0.54% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.30 on March 12, down 1.33% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium was 1.36 on March 12, up 1.67% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.27 on March 12, up 1.4% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.76 on March 12, up 3.3% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.89 on March 12, up 2.2% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 99.74 on March 12, up 0.48% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8821 on March 12, up 0.08% from the previous day [1]. Inventories - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105420 on March 12, up 0.49% from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 309974 (in ten thousand) on March 12, up 23.07% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 32656407 on March 12, down 0.20% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 344324824 on March 12, down 0.06% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipt was 16697449 on March 12, down 0.17% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipt was 78610869 on March 12, up 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF holding was 1076 on March 12, down 0.13% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF holding was 15539 on March 12, with no change from the previous day [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Gold's support level at $5000 on the 20-day moving average is crucial. It's advisable to wait for a clear trend before taking action. Observe the volatility of the target to see if it declines. In the short term, sell out-of-the-money call options above 1170 yuan [1] - Silver prices may still face downward pressure due to multiple factors. Pay attention to the support of the 60-day moving average. When volatility converges, the operating range is between $80 - $90. Sell out-of-the-money call options to earn time value [1] - Platinum and palladium will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Platinum prices seek support around 550 yuan, and palladium may decline to around 410 yuan. Roll and sell out-of-the-money call options [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1140.80 yuan/g, down 11.20 yuan or -0.97% from the previous day [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 21740 yuan/ten pieces, up 101 yuan or 0.47% [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 560.50 yuan/g, down 3.45 yuan or -0.61% [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 421.50 yuan, down 6.50 yuan or -1.52% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at $5181.30, up $88.00 or 1.73% [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at $84.70, up $2.18 or 2.64% [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $2151.80 per ounce, up $23.60 or 1.11% [1] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at $1657.00, up $7.00 or 0.42% [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at $5168.01, up $83.32 or 1.64% [1] - London silver was at $84.48, up $2.22 or 2.70% [1] - Spot platinum was at $2109.00, down $40.00 or -1.86% [1] - Spot palladium was at $1626.00, down $19.00 or -1.16% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D was at 1138.46 yuan/g, down 10.10 yuan or -0.88% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T+D was at 21350 yuan/ten pieces, up 282 yuan or 1.34% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 552 yuan/g, down 2 yuan or -0.41% [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was -2.34, up 1.10, with a 1-year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was -390, up 181, with a 1-year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold basis was -13.29, down 4.68, with a 1-year historical quantile of 58.30% [1] - London silver - COMEX silver basis was -0.22, up 0.04, with a 1-year historical quantile of 34.60% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 61.18, down 0.55 or -0.88% [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 52.47, down 0.76 or -1.43% [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.30, up 0.01 or 0.68% [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.33, up 0.01 or 0.92% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, up 0.02 percentage points or 0.5% [1] - 2-year US Treasury yield was 3.56%, down 0.01 percentage points or -0.3% [1] - 10-year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.80%, down 0.02 percentage points or -1.1% [1] - US dollar index was 98.96, down 0.09 or -0.09% [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9093, down 0.0091 or -0.13% [1] Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105033, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 255952 kg, down 16769 kg or -6.15% [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 33081878, down 18415 or -0.06% [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 349145895 ounces, down 2196030 ounces or -0.63% [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16899870, down 103591 or -0.61% [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 81733733, up 498427 or 0.61% [1] - SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1073, down 2.57 or -0.24% [1] - SLV silver ETF holdings were 15762, down 47.90 or -0.30% [1]

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - In January 2026, international gold prices experienced significant volatility, starting at $4500/oz and peaking at $5598.75/oz, marking a monthly increase of over 24% before a sharp decline [1] - The price dropped dramatically at the end of January, with a single-day decline of 9%, the largest since 1980, reaching a low of $4440/oz [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Young investors have become the main force in gold purchases, driven by social media trends and the allure of high returns [3] - Some investors are using credit cards and personal loans to buy gold, which poses significant financial risks [3][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Retail gold jewelry prices have surged, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook reaching prices of approximately 1039 CNY per gram [3] - The international gold futures price has doubled over 30 months, compared to $1636.4/oz in October 2022 [3] Group 4: Regulatory Concerns - Regulatory bodies have issued warnings about the overheating market, advising investors to manage risks and control positions [5][10] - Several banks have reiterated the importance of risk awareness in precious metal investments, especially in light of increased geopolitical risks [5][10] Group 5: Illegal Activities - Illegal trading platforms are exploiting the gold rush, luring investors with promises of high returns while posing significant risks [7] - Common scams include gold custody schemes and virtual investment frauds, which mislead investors into believing they are participating in legitimate transactions [7] Group 6: Market Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices could approach $5000/oz or even $6000/oz, supported by macroeconomic factors and central bank demand [11][13] - The global demand for gold investment reached a record 2175 tons in 2025, with significant inflows into gold ETFs [13] Group 7: Geopolitical Influences - Recent geopolitical developments have affected market sentiment, with easing tensions potentially leading to a shift of funds from gold to equity markets [15] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has emphasized the need for risk control amid increased price volatility [15]

Group 1: Adjustments in Futures Trading - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced adjustments to the trading margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts, effective from February 9 [3] - Specific adjustments include a 10% price fluctuation limit and an 11% margin ratio for copper (CU2702), aluminum (AL2702), lead (PB2702), zinc (ZN2702), and alumina (AO2702) contracts [3] - Other contracts such as nickel (NI2702) and tin (SN2702) will have a 12% price fluctuation limit and a 13% margin ratio [3] Group 2: Spring Festival Trading Schedule - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will not conduct night trading on February 13, 2026, and will be closed from February 14 to February 23, 2026 [6] - Trading will resume on February 24, 2026, with a collection auction for all futures and options contracts from 08:55 to 09:00 [6] Group 3: Gold and Silver Margin Adjustments - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced an increase in margin ratios for gold and silver contracts starting from February 11, 2026 [10][12] - The margin ratio for gold contracts will rise from 18% to 21%, while the fluctuation limit will increase from 17% to 20% [13] - For silver contracts, the margin ratio will increase from 24% to 27%, with the fluctuation limit rising from 23% to 26% [13] Group 4: Market Trends and Analysis - Spot gold has returned to the $5,000 mark, with a recent price of $5,011.59 per ounce, while spot silver saw a significant increase of 6% [17][18] - Analysts from Dongfang Securities suggest that the long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact despite recent volatility, as the fundamental issues in the U.S. debt situation have not been resolved [20] - Ping An Securities indicates a favorable supply-demand dynamic for copper, predicting a steady increase in copper prices due to global industrial upgrades and infrastructure developments [20]

Market Updates - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges announced the holiday schedule for the 2026 Spring Festival, with a break from February 15 to February 23, resuming trading on February 24 [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the price limits and margin requirements for various futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, and gold, effective from February 9 [2] Company News - Runze Technology announced plans to issue convertible bonds to acquire assets, with trading suspended from February 6 for up to 10 trading days [4] - Tianqi Model is planning a major asset restructuring through the issuance of shares and cash to acquire equity in Dongshi Automotive Technology Group, with trading suspended from February 6 [5] - *ST Cube reported a significant stock price increase of 314.93% from January 20 to February 5, leading to a trading suspension for verification due to potential market volatility [5] - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire control of Beijing Kaide Quartz Co., with trading resuming on February 6 [6] - JinkoSolar clarified that it has not engaged in any business with SpaceX and has no current orders related to "space photovoltaics," which has not impacted its financial performance [8] - Jinfu Technology intends to acquire 51% stakes in two companies for a total consideration of up to 714 million yuan, with a share transfer agreement in place [9] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities reported that the automotive industry may face profit margin pressures in Q1 2026 due to rising costs of storage and battery materials, with potential impacts from lithium carbonate price increases [10] - Galaxy Securities highlighted that AI's benefits are primarily seen in improved efficiency and cost reduction across platforms and content production, suggesting a focus on internet and AI-related stocks [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment information, financial news, and stock market trends. It shows that the macro - economy has certain fluctuations, the commodity market has policy - induced changes and price movements, and the financial and stock markets are also affected by multiple factors such as policies, market supply and demand, and international situations. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q4 2025 grew 4.5% year - on - year, lower than 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1] - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, up from 49.0% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1] - In December 2025, social financing scale was 22,075 billion yuan, lower than 35,299 billion yuan in the previous month and 28,537 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The "14th" central No. 1 document on "Three Rural Issues" was released, aiming at rural revitalization [2] - Multiple exchanges adjusted margin ratios and price limit ranges of various commodity futures contracts [2][3] - On February 3, 2026, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis and 30 had negative basis [3] - CME's average daily contract trading volume in January increased 15% year - on - year to a record 29.6 million contracts [3] 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 6.83% and COMEX silver up 10.27% [5] - Global alumina production in 2025 reached 144.98 million tons, up 5.1% from 2024 [6] - Chile's copper production is expected to grow 3.7% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027, with the average price in 2026 expected to be $4.95 per pound [7] 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel and Minerals - Indonesian miners suspended thermal coal spot exports after the government proposed to cut coal production [9] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On February 3, 2026, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices were raised by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [10] - Four public fund companies warned of significant premiums in the secondary market trading prices of their crude oil and petroleum - themed funds [10] - The U.S. plans to issue licenses for companies to exploit Venezuelan oil [10] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Ukraine's white sugar production in 2025 dropped to 1.72 million tons, a 4% decrease [11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 3, the central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan [13] - On February 4, the central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan [13] - In January 2026, the central bank's MLF had a net injection of 700 billion yuan, and PSL had a net injection of 174.4 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Important News - The 2026 central No. 1 document focused on rural revitalization, including financial support policies [15] - Rumors about VAT rate adjustments in the game and financial industries were untrue [15][16] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the development of strategic emerging industries [16] - The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank called for promoting the reasonable growth and balanced distribution of credit [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was mainly volatile, with treasury bond futures mostly rising [22] - The exchange bond market had mixed performances, with some bonds rising and some falling [22][23] - The中证 Convertible Bond Index rose 2.63% [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 151 points, and the RMB central parity rate was raised 87 points [27] - The US dollar index fell 0.22%, and most non - US currencies rose [27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - income said to focus on the expansion of free - trade offshore bonds and the possibility of using dim - sum bonds to take over free - trade bonds [28] - CITIC Securities expected that dividend insurance products and incremental funds from bank deposits would support 2026 premium income [28] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On February 4, 158 bonds will be listed, 163 bonds will be issued, 127 bonds will make payments, and 55 bonds will pay principal and interest [30] 3.4 Stock Market News - On Tuesday, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.29% [31] - The Hong Kong stock market's main indexes recovered, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.22% [31] - The CSRC chairman met with the head of the UK's FCA to discuss regulatory cooperation [31] - In January, the number of new A - share accounts reached 4.9158 million, a 15 - month high [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Silver prices may fluctuate greatly in the range of $70 - 110 due to factors such as regulatory restrictions and macro - news sentiment. Before the holiday, institutional ETFs continued to reduce positions and wait and see, leading to a decline in liquidity. It is recommended to wait for market volatility to fall and use methods such as selling options for unilateral positions to lock in risks [1] - Platinum prices will enter a consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait for the market to adjust in place before trying to buy or conduct short - term high - selling and low - buying operations [1] - Due to short - term news and capital sentiment, the volatility risk is relatively large. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. Gold can be allocated to buy at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options instead of going long after the market stabilizes. Light - position participation in long gold - silver ratio arbitrage is also recommended [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1161.42 yuan/gram on January 30, down 87.70 yuan or 7.02% from January 29 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 27941 yuan/kg on January 30, down 2950 yuan or 9.55% from January 29 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 714.10 on January 30, up 19.30 or 2.78% from January 29 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 526.60 yuan/gram on January 30, up 22.60 or 4.48% from January 29 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at 4907.50 on January 30, down 503.30 or 9.30% from January 29 [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at 85.25 on January 30, down 30.54 or 26.37% from January 29 [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2178.20 dollars/ounce on January 30, down 458.70 or 17.40% from January 29 [1] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at 1701.00 on January 30, down 334.00 or 16.41% from January 29 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4880.03 on January 30, down 497.13 or 9.25% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 85.26 on January 30, down 30.61 or 26.42% from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 2300.00 dollars/ounce on January 30, down 492.00 or 17.62% from the previous value [1] - Spot rhodium was at 1820.00 on January 30, down 286.00 or 13.58% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1163.99 yuan/gram on January 30, down 79.41 or 6.39% from January 29 [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 27530 yuan/kg on January 30, down 2468 or 8.23% from January 29 [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 638 yuan/gram on January 30, down 9.31% from the previous value [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 2.57, up 8.29 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 411, up 482 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 27.47, up 6.17 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.01, down 0.07 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 74.10% [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 57.57 on January 30, up 10.83 or 23.18% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of SHFE gold/silver was 41.57 on January 30, up 1.13 or 2.80% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.28 on January 30, down 0.02 or - 1.18% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of GZFE platinum/rhodium was 1.36 on January 30, down 0.02 or - 1.63% from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26% on January 30, up 0.02 or 0.5% from the previous value [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.52% on January 30, down 0.01 or - 0.3% from the previous value [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.90% on January 30, up 0.01 or 0.5% from the previous value [1] - The US dollar index was 97.12 on January 30, up 0.95 or 0.99% from the previous value [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9589 on January 30, up 0.0107 or 0.15% from the previous value [1] Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 103029 on January 30, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The SHFE silver inventory was 455068 (in ten - grams) on January 30, down 26940 or - 5.59% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 35748596 on January 30, down 128604 or - 0.36% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 405886807 on January 30, down 2366533 or - 0.58% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19038541 ounces on January 30, up 253295 or 1.35% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 104879945 on January 30, down 3277493 or - 3.03% from the previous value [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1087 tons on January 30, up 0.57 or 0.05% from the previous value [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15523 on January 30, unchanged from the previous value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced extreme volatility on February 1, 2026, with international gold prices dropping over 9% in a single day, raising questions about whether this marks the beginning of a market crash or the onset of a new historical trend [1][3]. Market Performance - International London gold opened at $4820 per ounce, peaked at $4880, and closed at approximately $4765, reflecting a 9.2% decline [3]. - Domestic gold T D contracts opened at 1100 yuan per gram, closing at 1090 yuan, while retail prices for gold jewelry saw a drastic drop from 1625 yuan to 1455 yuan per gram, a decrease of 170 yuan [1][3]. Historical Context - Historical data indicates that similar price fluctuations often occur at trend reversal points, such as before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and during the early rebound after the 2008 financial crisis [1]. - Significant upward movements in gold prices historically require three driving factors: monetary policy shifts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. federal debt surpassed $38 trillion in early 2026, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 130%, raising concerns about the dollar's credibility [5]. - The global central bank gold purchasing trend remains strong, with a net purchase of 1050 tons in 2025, and 95% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months [5]. Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Greenland sovereignty dispute and ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts, have heightened global demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. - Historical patterns suggest that during periods of turmoil, gold often serves as a preferred investment, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [6]. Monetary Policy Impact - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supports gold prices, as lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [8]. - As of February 1, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 3.5%, with inflation expectations at 2.8%, resulting in a real interest rate of approximately 0.7% [8]. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The gold futures market showed a high level of optimism at the end of January 2026, leading to a significant sell-off on February 1, which triggered stop-loss orders and exacerbated the price drop [9]. - Retail gold prices remain inflated, with jewelry prices significantly higher than investment-grade gold, indicating a potential risk of correction in the retail market [9]. Comparison with Historical Bull Markets - Current geopolitical tensions differ from the Cold War era, suggesting that gold price increases may be more gradual rather than replicating the sharp spikes seen in the past [11]. - The average annual increase in gold prices during the 1970s was over 30%, while the increase in 2025 was around 15%, indicating a more stable market environment [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term news and capital sentiment have a significant impact on the volatility risk of precious metals. Gold long positions should take profit on rallies, and one can buy at dips for at - the - money options. [1] - Silver price volatility remains high, institutional ETFs continue to reduce positions and stay on the sidelines. It is recommended to pay attention to risk control measures of exchanges and maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions. [1] - The easing of the supply tightness in the London palladium spot market may limit its upside space, so short - term observation is advisable. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Price - The AU2604 contract closed at 1249.12 on January 29, up 62.92 (5.30%) from January 28. [1] - The AG2604 contract closed at 30891 on January 29, up 1672 (5.72%) from January 28. [1] - The PT2606 contract closed at 714.10 on January 29, up 19.30 (2.78%) from January 28. [1] - The PD2606 contract closed at 526.60 on January 29, up 22.60 (4.48%) from January 28. [1] Foreign Futures Closing Price - The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5410.80 on January 29, down 0.20 (0.00%) from January 28. [1] - The COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 115.79 on January 29, down 0.84 (-0.72%) from January 28. [1] - The NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2636.90 on January 29, down 68.20 (-2.52%) from January 28. [1] - The NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 2035.00 on January 29, down 60.50 (-2.89%) from January 28. [1] Spot Price - London gold was at 5377.16, down 36.65 (-0.68%) from the previous value. [1] - London silver was at 115.87, down 0.74 (-0.63%) from the previous value. [1] - Spot palladium was at 2792.00, up 121.00 (4.53%) from the previous value. [1] - Another spot palladium was at 2106.00, up 92.00 (4.57%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1243.40, up 20.36 (5.01%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 29998, up 688 (2.35%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 704, up 33 (4.99%) from the previous value. [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 5.72, down 3.56 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10%. [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 893, down 984 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60%. [1] - Another basis was 5.08, up 6.87 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.60%. [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was not provided, and the basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.02, down 0.10 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00%. [1] Price Ratio - COMEX gold/silver was 46.73, up 0.33 (0.72%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver was 40.44, down 0.16 (-0.40%) from the previous value. [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.30, up 0.00 (0.38%) from the previous value. [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium was 1.36, down 0.02 (-1.63%) from the previous value. [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24, down 0.02 (-0.5%) from the previous value. [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.53, down 0.03 (-0.8%) from the previous value. [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.89, down 0.01 (-0.5%) from the previous value. [1] - The US dollar index was 96.16, down 0.19 (-0.19%) from the previous value. [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9482, up 0.0049 (0.07%) from the previous value. [1] Inventory and Position - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 103029, unchanged (0.00%) from the previous value. [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 482008, down 26360 (-5.19%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 35877200, unchanged (0.00%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 408253340, down 3431295 (-0.83%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18785246, down 47826 (-0.25%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 108157437, up 482886 (0.45%) from the previous value. [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1087, down 3.43 (-0.31%) from the previous value. [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15523, down 112.76 (-0.72%) from the previous value. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in spot gold prices, which broke through $5,500 per ounce on January 29, reflects significant market dynamics driven by various factors, including monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has been a primary driver of gold price increases, as a loose monetary policy typically leads to a weaker dollar, thereby supporting gold prices [4]. - Historical data indicates that during periods of Fed policy easing, the dollar index tends to decline, which in turn boosts gold as a dollar-denominated asset [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. President Trump's comments regarding Iran, have heightened market risk aversion, further propelling gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [4]. - The warning from Iran about potential strikes on Israel intensified these fears, contributing to a rapid increase in gold prices over a short period [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, reinforcing the structural demand for gold as a stable asset amid challenges to dollar credibility [6]. - This long-term demand shift is expected to provide a solid foundation for ongoing increases in gold prices [6]. Group 4: Market Predictions and Volatility - Some institutions have set a price target of $6,600 for gold, suggesting that if geopolitical tensions persist and the Fed hints at potential rate cuts, gold could challenge the $6,000 mark [6]. - Despite the bullish outlook, the rapid increase of $500 in just four days raises concerns about potential volatility and the risk of a market correction [8]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - The current political and economic uncertainties globally are revitalizing gold's status as a timeless "hard currency," with market participants eagerly anticipating new price milestones following the breach of the $5,500 level [8].