铂钯金期货日报 2025/12/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 527.55 | 34.50↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 455.15 | +29.75↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 497.89 | 26.57↑ 长江钯金现货价 | 406.00 | 21.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -29.66 | -7.93↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -49.15 | -8.75↓ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 9966.00 | -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 3003.00 | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum and palladium futures main contracts fluctuated weakly in intraday trading, with platinum's decline greater than palladium's. In the short - term, the realization of the interest - rate cut expectation may continue the price correction. In the long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectation, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the long - term expansion of hydrogen economy demand. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of electric vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price. The current low price of palladium may make it a cost - effective choice again, and there may be a follow - up catch - up rally. The London platinum spot is expected to face resistance at $1750 per ounce and support at $1500 per ounce; the London palladium spot may encounter resistance at $1500 per ounce and support at $1350 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 436.40 yuan/gram, down 5.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 380.45 yuan/gram, down 1.80 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10,387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3,179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 431.08 yuan/gram, down 4.22 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 376.50 yuan/gram, up 16.50 yuan. The platinum main contract basis was - 5.32 yuan/gram, up 1.53 yuan; the palladium main contract basis was - 3.95 yuan/gram, up 18.30 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.11, up 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.91%, up 0.03%. The VIX volatility index was 16.66, up 1.25 [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed is scheduled to hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9th and 10th, and the market generally expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Japan's Q3 real GDP was revised down to a 0.6% quarterly contraction and a 2.3% annual contraction. Japan's nominal wages rose 2.6% year - on - year in October, but real wages after inflation fell for the tenth consecutive month. The European Central Bank's hawkish Executive Board member Schnabel believes that economic and inflation risks are skewed upwards and is satisfied with the market's bet on the ECB's next rate hike [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On December 9th at 19:00, the US November NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; at 23:00, the US October JOLTs Job Openings (in millions). On December 11th at 03:00, the Fed will announce the December FOMC meeting interest - rate decision [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Driven by interest - rate cut news, the precious - metal market is generally strong, leading to significant price increases for platinum and palladium futures. The platinum 2606 main contract rose 3.98% to 451.6 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 main contract rose 2.44% to 382.35 yuan/gram [2]. - For platinum, in 2025, the global market is expected to have a supply gap of about 692,000 ounces. With the continuous consumption of above - ground inventory, the physical spot market is in a long - term tight situation. In the short term, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate upward; in the medium - to - long term, they may maintain a strong trend, but there may be some profit - taking sentiment [2]. - For palladium, in the medium - to - short term, supply is affected by South Africa's power supply and Russia's geopolitical situation. Demand is under downward pressure due to the "platinum replacing palladium" trend. The market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus, but the warm trading sentiment in precious metals may support prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 451.60, up 9.10; palladium main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 382.35 [2]. - Platinum main - contract position (daily, lots): 10,624.00, up 2,576.00; palladium main - contract position (daily, lots): 3,028.00, up 478.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 438.00, up 24.00; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 384.50, up 22.00 [2]. - Platinum main - contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): 6.80, up; palladium main - contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 13.60, up 12.90 [2]. - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9,966.00, down 243.00; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3,003.00, down 342.00 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00 [2]. - Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - Dollar index: 99.44, down 0.12; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 0.02, up [2]. - VIX volatility index: 16.35, down 0.86 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Market expectations are that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December with a probability of about 85% - 86% according to the market pricing, and 87.4% according to CME's "FedWatch". The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 12.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.5%, the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged is 9.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.2% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - November 11 US ISM manufacturing PMI on December 1 [2]. - US JOLTS job - opening data on December 2 [2]. - US ADP private - sector employment data on December 3 [2]. - US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2].