免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅 为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限 公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） -34.10↓ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 705.70 | | 523.00 | -11.10↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 10387.00 | | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 685.70 | -47.55↓ 长江钯金现货平均价 | 480. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The parabolic rise in the prices of platinum and palladium recently may intensify the risk of a high - level decline. Short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] - In the short term, the platinum and palladium market may enter a high - level volatile consolidation phase, but the previous squeeze - out pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot situation may support the price for a pulse - like rebound [2] - In the long term, the price of platinum may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continued supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium - to - long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. The demand for palladium is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by the interest rate cut expectation may give some support to the price [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) decreased by 70.45 to 634.35, and the closing price of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) decreased by 54.90 to 494.10 [2] - The main contract position of platinum (daily, lots) decreased by 277 to 10387, and that of palladium (daily, lots) increased by 90 to 3179 [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 25 to 637.15, and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium increased by 60 to 488 [2] - The basis of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) increased by 45.45 to 2.80, and the basis of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) increased by 114.90 to - 6.10 [2] - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly, contracts) decreased by 243 to 9966, and those of palladium (weekly, contracts) decreased by 342 [2] 3.3. Supply and Demand Situation - The total supply of platinum (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 0.80 in 2025, and the total supply of palladium (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 5 to 220.40 in 2025 [2] - The total demand for platinum (annual, tons) is expected to increase by 25.60 in 2025, and the total demand for palladium (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 27 to 261.60 in 2025 [2] 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index increased by 0.12 to 98.03, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained unchanged at 1.91% [2] - The VIX volatility index increased by 0.13 to 13.60 [2] 3.5. Industry News - The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 18.8%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 81.2%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 46.9%, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 44.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.5% [2] - Affected by the long - position profit - taking, the main contracts of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange tumbled in the afternoon and hit the daily limit [2] 3.6. Key Points to Follow - On December 30, 2025, at 22:00, the year - on - year US FHFA housing price index; on January 1, 2026, at 21:45, the US Markit manufacturing PMI [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Platinum prices may be supported in the medium to long term by expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural deficit in supply and demand, and expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the spread of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may support prices. The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline, and short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 657.65 yuan/gram, up 43.00 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 578.45 yuan/gram, up 37.80 yuan. The main contract position of platinum is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the main contract position of palladium is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 606.99 yuan/gram, up 45.38 yuan; the spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River is 458.00 yuan/gram, up 23.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract is - 50.66 yuan/gram, up 2.38 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 120.45 yuan/gram, down 14.80 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.90, down 0.36; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index is 14.00, down 0.08 [2] Industry News - The US Q3 real GDP initial value annualized quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%. US President Trump hopes the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and market perform well. Gold has risen over 71% this year, and silver has risen about 147%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.7% [2] Key Points to Watch - The number of initial jobless claims in the US at 21:30 on December 24 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest non - farm report shows that the US labor market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rebounding sharply in November. The expectation of an FOMC rate cut in March next year has increased, and the main platinum and palladium futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continue to rise strongly [2]. - The recent price increase of platinum and palladium is mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The tightening of physical supply and the increase in palladium ETF holdings exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction, and high basis and spreads stimulate arbitrage motives [2]. - In the medium and long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium - to - long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by rate - cut expectations may support prices, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again [2]. - Due to the recent large increase in the precious metal market, short - term correction risks should be noted. Specific price ranges for different contracts and spot prices are provided [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price (daily, yuan/g): 527.55, up 34.50; Palladium main contract closing price (daily, yuan/g): 455.15, up 29.75. - Main contract positions: Platinum (daily, lots): 10387.00, down 277.00; Palladium (daily, lots): 3179.00, up 90.00 [2] 3.2现货市场 - SGE platinum spot price (Pt9995): 497.89, up 26.57; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 406.00, up 21.00. - Platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/g): - 29.66, down 7.93; Palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/g): - 49.15, down 8.75 [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9966.00, down 243.00; Palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3003.00, down 342.00. - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; Total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00. - Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; Total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2] 3.4 Macro Data - US dollar index: 98.22, down 0.02; VIX volatility index: 16.48, down 0.06; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 1.92, down 0.01. - In November, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In October, non - farm payrolls decreased by 105,000, far more than the expected 25,000. The data for August and September were also revised down by a total of 33,000. The average hourly wage in November increased by 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021. - In October, US retail sales were flat month - on - month, slightly lower than the expected 0.1% growth, mainly dragged down by a 1.6% decline in auto sales. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations. - The preliminary value of the US S & P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a 5 - month low. The preliminary value of the Services PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI dropped to 53, all at 6 - month lows. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the US economic outlook, expecting the full - year GDP growth rate in 2025 to reach 3.5%, and Trump will announce the candidate for the Fed Chairman in early January next year [2] 3.5 Key Points to Follow - On December 17 at 21:30, pay attention to the year - on - year change of US retail sales (%); on December 18 at 21:30, pay attention to the month - on - month change of US core CPI (%) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum and palladium futures main contracts fluctuated weakly in intraday trading, with platinum's decline greater than palladium's. In the short - term, the realization of the interest - rate cut expectation may continue the price correction. In the long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectation, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the long - term expansion of hydrogen economy demand. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of electric vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price. The current low price of palladium may make it a cost - effective choice again, and there may be a follow - up catch - up rally. The London platinum spot is expected to face resistance at $1750 per ounce and support at $1500 per ounce; the London palladium spot may encounter resistance at $1500 per ounce and support at $1350 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 436.40 yuan/gram, down 5.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 380.45 yuan/gram, down 1.80 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10,387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3,179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 431.08 yuan/gram, down 4.22 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 376.50 yuan/gram, up 16.50 yuan. The platinum main contract basis was - 5.32 yuan/gram, up 1.53 yuan; the palladium main contract basis was - 3.95 yuan/gram, up 18.30 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.11, up 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.91%, up 0.03%. The VIX volatility index was 16.66, up 1.25 [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed is scheduled to hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9th and 10th, and the market generally expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Japan's Q3 real GDP was revised down to a 0.6% quarterly contraction and a 2.3% annual contraction. Japan's nominal wages rose 2.6% year - on - year in October, but real wages after inflation fell for the tenth consecutive month. The European Central Bank's hawkish Executive Board member Schnabel believes that economic and inflation risks are skewed upwards and is satisfied with the market's bet on the ECB's next rate hike [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On December 9th at 19:00, the US November NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; at 23:00, the US October JOLTs Job Openings (in millions). On December 11th at 03:00, the Fed will announce the December FOMC meeting interest - rate decision [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Driven by interest - rate cut news, the precious - metal market is generally strong, leading to significant price increases for platinum and palladium futures. The platinum 2606 main contract rose 3.98% to 451.6 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 main contract rose 2.44% to 382.35 yuan/gram [2]. - For platinum, in 2025, the global market is expected to have a supply gap of about 692,000 ounces. With the continuous consumption of above - ground inventory, the physical spot market is in a long - term tight situation. In the short term, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate upward; in the medium - to - long term, they may maintain a strong trend, but there may be some profit - taking sentiment [2]. - For palladium, in the medium - to - short term, supply is affected by South Africa's power supply and Russia's geopolitical situation. Demand is under downward pressure due to the "platinum replacing palladium" trend. The market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus, but the warm trading sentiment in precious metals may support prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 451.60, up 9.10; palladium main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 382.35 [2]. - Platinum main - contract position (daily, lots): 10,624.00, up 2,576.00; palladium main - contract position (daily, lots): 3,028.00, up 478.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 438.00, up 24.00; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 384.50, up 22.00 [2]. - Platinum main - contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): 6.80, up; palladium main - contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 13.60, up 12.90 [2]. - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9,966.00, down 243.00; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3,003.00, down 342.00 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00 [2]. - Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - Dollar index: 99.44, down 0.12; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 0.02, up [2]. - VIX volatility index: 16.35, down 0.86 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Market expectations are that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December with a probability of about 85% - 86% according to the market pricing, and 87.4% according to CME's "FedWatch". The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 12.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.5%, the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged is 9.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.2% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - November 11 US ISM manufacturing PMI on December 1 [2]. - US JOLTS job - opening data on December 2 [2]. - US ADP private - sector employment data on December 3 [2]. - US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2].