铂钯金期货日报 2026/1/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 13.60↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 714.10 | 526.60 | +15.10↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 10387.00 | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） 33.45↑ 长江钯金现货平均价 | 703.90 | 502.00 | 42.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) 19.85↑ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -10.20 | -24.60 | 26.90↑ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 9966.00 -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 3003.00 | | | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 -0.80↓ ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅 为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限 公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） -34.10↓ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 705.70 | | 523.00 | -11.10↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 10387.00 | | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 685.70 | -47.55↓ 长江钯金现货平均价 | 480. ...

| 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月22日 | | | | 叶得己 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月21日 | 1月20日 | 张跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2604合约 | 1092.30 | 1060.16 | 32.14 | 3.03% | 元/兄 | | AG2604合约 | 23131 | 23062 | ୧୦ | 0.30% | | | | 628.50 | 619.35 | 9.15 | 1.48% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | | | | | 元/完 | | PD2606合约 | 485.80 | 490.00 | -4.20 | -0.86% | | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月21日 | 1月20日 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4836.20 | 4769.10 | 67.10 | 1.4 ...

铂钯金期货日报 2026/1/21 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅 为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限 公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 2.65↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 619.35 | | | 490.00 | +9.45↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 10387.00 | | | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） 7.36↑ 长江 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may be more affected by the impact of US economic data on the Fed's policy expectations and geopolitical situation disturbances. In the short - term, the influence of news is weakening, the market maintains a relatively strong shock but the volatility declines. For gold, those holding long positions above the 20 - day moving average can continue to hold, and selling out - of - the - money put options can earn time value [1]. - For silver, the cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates by the country after April 1 may bring the "rush to export" effect again, advancing the demand for silver powder and intensifying the supply - structural shortage. Short - term fluctuations are still volatile, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions, while long positions should lock in profits in time when the price is high [1]. - For platinum and palladium, due to their strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and the fact that their prices are still undervalued compared to gold, capital promotes value reshaping. It is expected to continue to rise in the medium - and long - term. In the short - term, market speculative sentiment weakens, the volatility narrows, but it still follows the relatively strong shock of gold. It is recommended to buy platinum on dips with light positions around the 20 - day moving average [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1035.20 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.52% from the previous day [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 22665 yuan/kilogram on January 15, down 0.43% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram on January 15, down 2.21% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 478.60 yuan/gram on January 15, down 5.25% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4620.50 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.29% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 92.21 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 1.05% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2415.80 dollars/ounce on January 15, up 0.55% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1865.50 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.90% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4615.52 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 92.40 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.65% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2408.00 dollars/ounce on January 15, up 0.46% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1812.00 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 1.79% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1033.92 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 22684 yuan/kilogram on January 15, down 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 597 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.34% from the previous day [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.28, up 1.73 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 19, up 17 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 4.98, up 2.82 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 87.80% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.19, up 0.37 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.00% [1]. Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 50.11 on January 15, up 0.77% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 45.67 on January 15, down 0.09% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.29 on January 15, up 1.46% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium was 1.27 on January 15, up 3.21% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.17% on January 15, up 0.5% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56% on January 15, up 1.4% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.88% on January 15, up 1.1% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 99.34 on January 15, up 0.27% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9631 on January 15, down 0.12% from the previous day [1]. Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 100152 kilograms on January 15, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 638399 kilograms on January 15, up 1.54% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36132901 ounces on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 433382110 ounces on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18838070 ounces on January 15, down 2.31% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 122741960 ounces on January 15, down 0.20% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1075 tons on January 15, up 0.05% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16062 tons on January 15, down 1.11% from the previous day [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues its strong trend. The silver squeeze has spread to other precious and non - ferrous metals, with high short - term volatility. The supply shortage of platinum provides key support to its price, while the demand for palladium is weakening, turning the market from short of supply to surplus. In the short - term, the situation between the US and Venezuela may support platinum and palladium prices. In the long - run, the "platinum strong, palladium weak" trend may continue. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 622.80 yuan/gram, up 27.70 yuan; palladium's is 505.10 yuan/gram, up 17.50 yuan. - Platinum's main contract open interest is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; palladium's is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of platinum spot (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 612.94 yuan/gram, up 20.12 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 445.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. - The basis of platinum's main contract is - 9.86 yuan/gram, down 7.58 yuan; that of palladium is - 60.10 yuan/gram, down 1.50 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. - The estimated total supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; that of palladium is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. - The estimated total demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; that of palladium is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.74, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.88%, down 0.03%. - The VIX volatility index is 15.38, up 0.63. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US Supreme Court didn't rule on Trump's tariffs on January 9, with the next announcement on January 14. The government is ready to re - impose tariffs if the ruling goes against. - The Fed's January 2026 rate - cut expectation is dashed. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than expected. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%. - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January is 54, a four - month high. The inflation expectation for the next year is 4.2%. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in January is 4.4%, and 95.6% for unchanged rates. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 27.6%, 71.3% for unchanged rates, and 1.1% for a 50 - basis - point cut. [2] 3.6 Key Points to Follow - January 13, 21:30: US December unadjusted CPI year - on - year, PPI year - on - year, and core retail sales month - on - month. - January 15, 01:00: Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate. - January 15, 20:30: European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting minutes. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant price fluctuations of platinum and palladium have raised concerns, with both metals experiencing consecutive price drops after a period of substantial gains, indicating potential volatility risks in the short term [2][4][11]. Price Fluctuations - Platinum and palladium prices have seen dramatic changes, with platinum futures dropping by 13% to 589.85 yuan per gram and palladium futures also falling by 13% to 447.45 yuan per gram [4]. - The maximum adjustment for both platinum and palladium futures from their recent highs has been around 20%, which is significantly greater than the adjustments seen in gold and silver during the same period [4]. - Prior to this decline, platinum futures had surged over 70% and palladium futures nearly 60% within a month starting from late November [4]. Market Reactions - Analysts attribute the price drop to a general correction in the precious metals sector, profit-taking by investors, and a slight increase in leasing rates for platinum, while palladium rates remained stable [5][11]. - Companies like Yunnan Copper are implementing cost-reduction strategies and enhancing the recovery of high-value metals to improve profitability amidst price volatility [7]. - Huayang New Materials claims competitive advantages in the purification technology of platinum and palladium, positioning itself well in the industry [7]. Future Outlook - Short-term volatility risks for platinum and palladium prices are anticipated, but medium to long-term demand for platinum is expected to grow due to stable automotive catalyst needs and the hydrogen energy sector [11]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce's investigation into palladium imports from Russia may tighten supply temporarily, providing some price support, although long-term fundamentals may exert downward pressure on palladium prices [11]. - Adjustments in trading rules for futures contracts, including increased price fluctuation limits and margin requirements, are set to take effect, reflecting the heightened volatility in the market [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline. Short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 529.05 yuan/gram (up 29.65 yuan), and the closing price of the palladium main contract was 686.95 yuan/gram (down 43.85 yuan) - The main contract holdings for platinum were 3,179.00 hands (down 277.00 hands), and for palladium were 10,387.00 hands (up 90.00 hands) [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 591.25 yuan/gram (down 15.74 yuan), and the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 417.00 yuan/gram (down 41.00 yuan) - The platinum main contract basis was - 95.70 yuan/gram (down 45.39 yuan), and the palladium main contract basis was - 112.05 yuan/gram (up 2.85 yuan) [2] Supply - Demand Situation - The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9,966.00 contracts (down 243.00 contracts), and the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions were 3,003.00 contracts (down 342.00 contracts) - The total platinum supply in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 0.80 tons), and the total palladium supply in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons (down 5.00 tons) - The total platinum demand in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons (up 25.60 tons), and the total palladium demand in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons (down 27.00 tons) [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index was 97.90 (down 0.36), the VIX volatility index was 14.00, and the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.94% (up 0.00%) - The initial annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, far exceeding the market expectation of 3.3%, with consumer spending being the main driver. The core PCE price index in the third quarter rose 2.9%. US core capital goods orders and shipments rebounded in October - US President Trump posted that he hopes the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and markets perform well - Gold prices have risen more than 71% this year, and silver prices have risen about 147% - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.7%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 5.0% [2] Industry News - The platinum and palladium markets hit the daily limit for several consecutive trading days before. Today, their trends diverged. The platinum 2606 contract rebounded strongly after hitting a low in the morning, while the palladium 2606 contract was still under pressure after hitting the daily limit down - Tight physical inventory and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly increased the price elasticity of platinum recently. The London platinum lease rate continued to rise, and palladium ETF holdings continued to increase, exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction - The large domestic - foreign price difference has stimulated arbitrage motives, pushing up the spot price and amplifying the futures price elasticity - In the medium - to - long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of new - energy vehicles, with the market shifting from short supply to oversupply. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective choice again [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The optimistic trading sentiment in the precious metals market continues to boost the platinum and palladium markets. The 2606 main contracts of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange both hit the daily limit after the opening, with palladium falling back during the session. The continuous shortage of physical spot and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly amplified the price elasticity of platinum and palladium recently. In the long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of medium - and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some support for its price. The prices of platinum and palladium show a parabolic upward trend, and the need for basis repair may increase the short - term correction risk [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 619.95 yuan/gram, up 56.35 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 532.55 yuan/gram, up 27.85 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the palladium main contract's open interest was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 561.61 yuan/gram, up 28.04 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price increased by 6.00 yuan. The platinum main contract's basis was - 28.31 yuan/gram, down 28.31 yuan; the palladium main contract's basis was - 97.55 yuan/gram, down 21.85 yuan [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Long Positions**: The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 2. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.26, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.94%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 14.08, down 0.83 [2]. 4. Industry News - The Ukrainian delegation completed negotiations with the US and the 20 - point "peace plan" is in the initial draft stage. Fed Governor Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, it may face the risk of an economic recession. The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for 6 months until July 31, 2026. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 19.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 80.1%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 44.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.2% [2]. 5. Price Outlook - This week, the London platinum spot price is expected to face resistance at 2300 US dollars/ounce and support at 1800 US dollars/ounce; the London palladium spot price is expected to face resistance at 1900 US dollars/ounce and support at 1600 US dollars/ounce [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On December 23 at 21:30, the US GDP deflator quarter - on - quarter (%) will be released; on December 24 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims will be released [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Recent sharp increases in platinum and palladium prices are driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. Platinum may see continued price support in the medium - to - long term due to Fed easing expectations, a persistent supply - demand structural deficit, and expanding long - term demand expectations from the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening as its market shifts from supply shortage to surplus, but dovish sentiment from rate - cut expectations may support prices, and its low price could make it a cost - effective option. The parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may increase short - term correction risks due to the upward repair demand of the basis. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 542.60 yuan/gram (up 27.40), and the main contract position is 10387.00 hands (down 277.00). Palladium's main contract closing price is 476.60 yuan/gram (up 31.15), and the main contract position is 3179.00 hands (up 90.00). [2] 现货 Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 511.65 yuan/gram (up 13.76), and the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 390.00 yuan/gram (down 3.00). The platinum main contract basis is - 13.64 yuan/gram (down), and the palladium main contract basis is - 86.60 yuan/gram (down 34.15). Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions decreased by 243.00 contracts weekly, and palladium's decreased by 342.00 contracts. [2] Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025, the total platinum supply is expected to decrease by 0.80 tons, and the total demand is expected to increase by 25.60 tons. The total palladium supply is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 5.00 tons), and the total demand is expected to be 261.60 tons (down 27.00 tons). [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.22 (down 0.06), the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92% (down 0.01%), and the VIX volatility index is 16.48 (down 0.02). US economic data shows mixed performance, with the unemployment rate rising, retail sales having different trends, and PMI values falling. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the economic outlook, expecting 3.5% GDP growth in 2025 and indicating that Trump will announce the Fed Chair candidate in early January. [2] Industry News - The palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the platinum main contract continued its upward momentum. Price increases are due to spot shortages and arbitrage trading. [2] Key Attention Points - Key US economic data to be released include the core CPI month - on - month on 12 - 18 at 21:30, the PCE price index month - on - month on 12 - 19 at 21:30, and the University of Michigan's 1 - year inflation rate expectation on 12 - 19 at 23:00. [2] Price Range - For London platinum spot, the upper resistance level is 2000 dollars/ounce, and the lower support level is 1800 dollars/ounce. For London palladium spot, the upper resistance level is 1750 dollars/ounce, and the lower support level is 1500 dollars/ounce. [2]