铂钯金期货日报 2025/12/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 527.55 | 34.50↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 455.15 | +29.75↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 497.89 | 26.57↑ 长江钯金现货价 | 406.00 | 21.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -29.66 | -7.93↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -49.15 | -8.75↓ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 9966.00 | -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 3003.00 | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 485.75 | 11.65↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 423.85 | +19.15↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 471.32 | 4.47↑ 长江钯金现货价 | 385.00 | 19.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -14.43 | -7.18↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -38.85 | -0.15↓ | | | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 9966.00 | -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 3003.00 | -342.00↓ | | 供需情况 | 供应量:铂金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 | 220.40 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Fed rate cut expectations boost the precious metals market sentiment, with London platinum and palladium prices breaking through the trading range, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showing a slightly stronger intraday performance. In the medium to long term, platinum may continue to see price support under expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural deficit in supply and demand, and long - term expansion of demand in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, with the market shifting from supply shortage to surplus. However, the bullish sentiment driven by rate cut expectations may support prices, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective option again. Recently, palladium prices have shown stronger resilience than platinum, and a subsequent catch - up rally may continue [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) is 444.45, up 4.75; palladium's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) is 387.65, up 4.15. Platinum's main contract open interest (daily, lots) is 10387, down 277; palladium's main contract open interest (daily, lots) is 3179, up 90 [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 438.26, up 7.18; the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 366, up 6. The platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram) is - 6.19, up 2.43; the palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram) is - 21.65, up 1.85. Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts) are 9966, down 243; palladium's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts) are 3003, down 342 [2] Supply and Demand - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2] Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 99.24, up 0.27; the VIX volatility index is 16.93, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, up 0.01 [2] Industry News - The Fed is expected to cut rates for the third consecutive time with internal disagreements, and officials may hint at a pause. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett believes there is still much room for the Fed to cut rates. US President Trump said he will use support for immediate and substantial rate cuts as a "litmus test" for the new Fed chair and may adjust tariff policies to lower some commodity prices. ADP data shows that US private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses, and US job openings in October were 7.67 million, far exceeding the expected 7.117 million. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will continue to slowly adjust monetary easing until it achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target and the policy rate returns to the natural rate level, and will increase bond purchases in "special cases" due to the recent rapid rise in interest rates [2] Key Points of Attention - At 03:00 on December 11, the Fed will announce its December FOMC meeting interest rate decision [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the shock correction of the precious metal market may continue due to some long - profit - taking funds leaving the market after the previous strong rally driven by interest - rate cut expectations. In the long term, platinum prices may maintain strong resilience supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, structural supply - demand deficits, the continuous progress of "platinum replacing palladium", and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium demand faces significant downward pressure during the "platinum replacing palladium" process in the gasoline purification catalyst field, and the palladium market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and the subsequent catch - up rally of palladium prices is expected to continue [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 439.65 yuan/gram, down 2.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 379.25 yuan/gram, down 2.70 yuan. The position of the platinum main contract was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the position of the palladium main contract was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 428.00 yuan, up 1.00 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 372.00 yuan, down 2.50 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 11.65 yuan/gram, up 3.75 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 7.25 yuan/gram, up 0.20 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; those of palladium were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.87, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.82%, down 0.03%. The VIX volatility index was 16.08, down 0.51 [2]. Industry News - The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. The new order growth declined from a one - year high, and the payment price index dropped to a seven - month low. The employment index rose to a six - month high. The US ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in November, against an expected increase of 10,000. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11%. The US has invited the Ukrainian delegation to the US for peace - negotiation consultations. The platinum and palladium main contracts fluctuated weakly during the session, with the London platinum spot price significantly corrected and the London palladium spot price relatively resilient [2]. Key Points to Watch - On December 4th at 20:30, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in the US in November; at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29th; the US PCE personal consumption expenditure data for September (time to be determined) [2].

Group 1 - Gold prices rebounded strongly after hitting a daily low of $3274.75 per ounce, closing up 0.63% at $3327.03 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures also rising 0.60% to $3326 per ounce, indicating a technical correction [1] - The market is experiencing mixed signals, with significant progress reported in the UK-US bilateral trade agreement, where the UK agreed to concessions on US agricultural imports in exchange for potential tariff reductions on UK car exports, which may temporarily weaken safe-haven demand [3] - Despite the trade agreement, global investors remain concerned about geopolitical uncertainties and recession risks, leading to continued inflows into safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2 - The precious metals sector showed a mixed performance, with spot silver rising 0.10% to $32.486 per ounce, platinum increasing 0.08% to $982.48 per ounce, and palladium leading the sector with a 0.54% gain, closing at $978.30 per ounce [4] - Analysts suggest that the precious metals market may continue to experience range-bound fluctuations amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, with investors advised to closely monitor upcoming Federal Reserve speeches and next week's US CPI data for insights on future price movements [4]