| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 12.65↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 463.65 | 626.50 | +4.60↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) 3179.00 | 10387.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） -3.64↓ 长江钯金现货平均价 431.00 | 606.35 | 6.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -16.29↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -32.65 | -20.15 | 1.40↑ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 9966.00 -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 3003.00 | | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 -0.80↓ 供应量:钯金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 293.00 | 220.40 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 最新 | 最新 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 11.55↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 589.50 | | 446.55 | -10.35↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 10387.00 | | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 7.58↑ 长江钯金现货平均价 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 591.60 | | 436.00 | 5.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -3.97↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | 2.10 | | -10.55 | 15.35↑ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 9966.00 -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | | | 3003.00 | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 -0.80↓ 供应量 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Non - farm data exceeded expectations, weakening the expectation of interest rate cuts. London platinum and palladium oscillated weakly, and trading in the Asian session was light approaching holidays, with volatility lower than before. The market has increasing differences in interpreting non - farm data, and Fed officials still have differences in their statements. In the short term, the trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium may have a phased catch - up opportunity. In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm. The supply uncertainty in South Africa and Russia and the implementation of new automobile emission policies make platinum more resilient than palladium, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market may continue. The report also gives the resistance and support levels for London platinum and palladium and the expected operating ranges for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 and palladium 2606 contracts [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 544.90 yuan/gram, down 5.80 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 430.05 yuan/gram, down 6.45 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10,387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3,179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 541.04 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River area was 410.00 yuan/gram, down 4.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 3.86 yuan/gram, up 1.46 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 20.05 yuan/gram, up 2.45 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 9,966.00, down 243.00; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 3,003.00, down 342.00. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 96.93, up 0.07; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.86%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 17.65, down 0.14. The US seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages increased by 0.4% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. Fed officials have different views on interest rates, and traders postponed the bet on Fed rate cuts from June to July [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred" choice. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 5.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 94.1%. The European Parliament voted to pass a financial assistance package for Ukraine, providing 90 billion euros in EU aid loans from 2026 to 2027, with 60 billion euros for Ukraine's defense needs [2]. 3.6 Key Areas of Concern - On March 12, at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 7; at 23:00, the total number of existing home sales in the US in January; and at 21:30, the US CPI data for January [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The successful breakthrough in the first - round US - Iran nuclear talks has marginally warmed market sentiment. The rebound in risk appetite has pressured the US dollar to correct, leading to a collective rebound in the precious metals market. The price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has risen by over 10%. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium may catch up in price with the boost of the financial attributes of gold and silver. In the short term, the trends of platinum and palladium may follow the rhythm of gold and silver, and high - volatility行情 may continue. In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm, and the supply - demand pattern differentiation may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price: 545.05 yuan/gram, up 52.15 yuan; palladium main contract closing price: 438.15 yuan/gram, up 30.90 yuan - Platinum main contract open interest: 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; palladium main contract open interest: 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 543.99 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan; Yangtze River palladium spot average price: 428.00 yuan/gram, up 40.00 yuan - Platinum main contract basis: - 1.06 yuan/gram, down 36.15 yuan; palladium main contract basis: - 10.15 yuan/gram, up 9.10 yuan - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - 2025 estimated total platinum supply: 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium supply: 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons - 2025 estimated total platinum demand: 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium demand: 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - US dollar index: 97.61, down 0.35; VIX volatility index: 17.76; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 1.88%, down 0.01 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US - Iran nuclear talks in Oman ended, and the two sides reached a consensus on continuing dialogue. - The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February in the US reached 57.3, the highest in six months, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in a year. - The People's Bank of China's gold reserves have increased for 15 consecutive months, reaching 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, an increase of 40,000 ounces month - on - month. - US President Trump signed an executive order threatening to impose tariffs on countries that purchase sanctioned Iranian goods and services. - The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Concern - US January retail sales data on February 10 at 21:30 - US January non - farm payrolls data on February 11 at 21:30 - US January CPI data on February 13 at 21:30 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue. The platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern affected by the gold price. The support level range for London platinum is $1900 - 2000 per ounce, and for London palladium, it is $1500 - 1600 per ounce. [2] - The cooling trend in the US labor market continues, strengthening the medium - term interest rate cut expectation. Against the background of Trump's mid - term election pressure and Wash's past policy flexibility, the Fed's easing path is likely to continue. [2] - The EU's formal postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthening of vehicle exhaust emission standards at the end of last year bring higher platinum loading intensity. Although the global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 540.30 yuan/gram, down 46.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 442.70 yuan/gram, down 8.90 yuan. [2] - The holding volume of the platinum main contract is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the holding volume of the palladium main contract is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 546.47 yuan/gram, down 41.63 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 433.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. [2] - The basis of the platinum main contract is 6.17 yuan/gram, up 5.12 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 9.70 yuan/gram, up 24.90 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. [2] - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. [2] - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.63, up 0.26; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, up 0.02%. [2] - The VIX volatility index is 18.64, up 0.64. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US ISM Services PMI in January slightly declined to 53.8, better than market expectations. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed, and export orders shrank at the fastest pace since March 2023. Employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [2] - The US ADP added 22,000 new jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm employment report on February 11, job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of January CPI on February 13. [2] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified the official stance on Iran's talks with the US in Oman, saying the negotiation will be held in Muscat, Oman's capital, around 10 a.m. on February 6. [2] - The Fed announced that it will not adjust the capital level of large - scale banks in the 2026 stress - test cycle and is currently considering multiple reforms to improve transparency. [2] - The Eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest level since September 2024. The core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Service inflation slowed to 3.2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged this week. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5 at 21:15. [2] - The release time of the US January non - farm employment report is to be determined. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the gold price. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation of the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market. The support levels for London platinum and palladium are 2000 US dollars per ounce and 1600 US dollars per ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 599.85 yuan per gram, and the closing price of the palladium main contract was 461.00 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 27.30 yuan. The main contract positions of platinum decreased by 277.00 hands to 10387.00 hands, while the main contract positions of palladium increased by 90.00 hands to 3179.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 588.10 yuan per gram, with an increase of 21.29 yuan, and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 417.00 yuan per gram, with a decrease of 4.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 16.51 yuan per gram, with a decrease, and the basis of the palladium main contract was - 44.00 yuan per gram, with a decrease of 31.30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly) decreased by 243.00 to 9966.00 contracts, and those of palladium decreased by 342.00. The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, with a decrease of 0.80 tons, and the total annual supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons, with a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, with an increase of 25.60 tons, and the total annual demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons, with a decrease of 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index decreased by 0.23 to 97.37, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.92%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 1.66 to 18.00 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump signed a government funding bill to end the partial government shutdown. Fed Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy. The US White House said that talks with Iran this week will proceed as planned. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in March is 8.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 91.1%. The overseas precious metals market sentiment has warmed up, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have strongly rebounded. The EU's delay of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards are expected to increase the substitution demand for platinum by about 450,000 ounces this year [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The release time of the US ADP employment data on February 4th is to be determined, and the US January non - farm payrolls report will be released. The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5th [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, market sentiment is weak, and the high - volatility trend in the precious metal market may continue. The platinum - palladium market may show a wide - range oscillation pattern affected by the gold price. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. Due to the uncertainty of South African power supply and Russian exports, combined with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, platinum is more resilient than palladium. The differentiation of the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the trend of "strong platinum and weak palladium". The support levels for London platinum and palladium are $1800/oz and $1500/oz respectively. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum futures main contract is 572.95 yuan/gram, and the closing price of the palladium futures main contract is 450.55 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 35.75 yuan/gram. The platinum main - contract position is 10387.00 lots, a decrease of 277.00 lots, and the palladium main - contract position is 3179.00 lots, an increase of 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 566.81 yuan/gram, and the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River region is 421.00 yuan/gram, with an increase of 30.00 yuan/gram. The platinum main - contract basis is 30.79 yuan/gram, and the palladium main - contract basis is - 29.55 yuan/gram, a decrease of 5.75 yuan/gram. The non - commercial long positions of platinum and palladium in CFTC are 9966.00 and 3003.00 contracts respectively, with decreases of 243.00 and 342.00 contracts respectively. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons, and the total annual supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons, and the total annual demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 97.61, an increase of 0.49, the real yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds is 1.94%, an increase of 0.04%, and the VIX volatility index is 16.34, a decrease of 1.10. [2] 3.5 Industry News - Iran may hold high - level nuclear negotiations with the US; the US will reduce the tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%; the US House Speaker is confident to end the partial government shutdown; the Fed's Bostic expects no interest rate cuts in 2026; the US January ISM manufacturing PMI index reached a new high since August 2022; the Bank of Japan is more aware of the need for timely interest rate hikes. The sentiment in the overseas precious metal market has recovered, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have strongly rebounded. The EU's new vehicle emission policy may increase the demand for platinum by about 450,000 ounces, and the increase in the penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand for platinum. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The US ADP employment change on February 4 at 21:15, the European Central Bank's interest - rate decision on February 5 at 21:15, and the release of the US January non - farm payroll report (time to be determined). [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm in the medium and long term. The uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum should pay attention to the upper resistance level of $2800 per ounce and the lower support level of $2600 per ounce; the London palladium should pay attention to the upper resistance level of $2100 per ounce and the lower support level of $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 714.10 yuan/gram (up 13.60), and the closing price of the palladium main contract is 526.60 yuan/gram (up 15.10). The main contract position of platinum is 10387.00 hands (down 277.00), and the main contract position of palladium is 3179.00 hands (up 90.00) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 703.90 yuan/gram (up 33.45), and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 502.00 yuan/gram (up 42.00). The basis of the platinum main contract is - 10.20 yuan/gram (up 19.85), and the basis of the palladium main contract is - 24.60 yuan/gram (up 26.90) [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly, contracts) are 9966.00 (down 243.00), and those of palladium are 3003.00 (down 342.00). The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 0.80), and the total supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons (down 5.00). The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons (up 25.60), and the total demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons (down 27.00) [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 96.35 (up 0.59), the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.90% (unchanged), and the VIX volatility index is 16.35 (up 0.20) [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts, in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point cut, consistent with Trump - nominated director Milan. The Fed pointed out that the unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation remains relatively high, and economic prospects are still highly uncertain. Fed Chair Powell said that raising interest rates is not anyone's basic assumption for the next move, and he doesn't believe the Fed will lose its independence and will advise the next Fed Chair to stay away from politics. - US President Trump threatened Iran again, saying the next attack on Iran will be more severe and a large fleet is heading to Iran. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's meeting showed that if the outlook meets expectations, it is advisable to continue raising interest rates. Members agreed that even if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates at this meeting, the monetary policy environment will remain loose. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 13.5%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 86.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in total by April is 24.1%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 74%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in total is 2.0% [2] 3.6 Market Analysis - Boosted by the overall optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market, the London platinum and palladium markets strengthened with fluctuations. At the macro level, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged as expected, and there is still an expectation of gradually restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. The continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar has increased the holding cost of RMB - denominated platinum and palladium, resulting in the recent overall increase of domestic platinum and palladium prices being weaker than that of the external market. The EU officially postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and simultaneously strengthened automobile exhaust emission standards, bringing higher platinum loading intensity. The substitution demand for platinum in automobile catalysts is expected to increase by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales volume is moderately adjusted downward due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - and long - term demand curve for platinum. The latest hydrogen energy outlook from the IEA also confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential elasticity for the platinum price [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On January 29th, 21:30, the US November trade balance (imports and exports); on January 30th, 21:30, the US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm in the medium to long term. The uncertainties in South African power supply and Russian exports, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the market trend of "strong platinum and weak palladium" [2]. - For the operating range, the upper resistance level of London platinum is $2,800 per ounce, and the lower support level is $2,600 per ounce. The upper resistance level of London palladium is $2,100 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1,900 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 705.70 yuan per gram, a decrease of 34.10 yuan. The closing price of the palladium main contract was 523.00 yuan per gram, a decrease of 11.10 yuan. - The main - contract positions of platinum were 10,387 hands, a decrease of 277 hands. The main - contract positions of palladium were 3,179 hands, an increase of 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 685.70 yuan per gram, a decrease of 47.55 yuan. The average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 480.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 2.00 yuan. - The basis of the platinum main contract was - 13.45 yuan per gram, a decrease. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 43.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 13.10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 9,966, a decrease of 243. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 3,003, a decrease of 342. - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons. The total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons. The total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 97.50, a decrease of 0.78. The real yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 1.92%, a decrease of 0.03%. - The VIX volatility index was 16.09, an increase of 0.45 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US is deploying heavy troops to Iran and many ships are moving towards Iran. A 25% tariff on all countries trading with Iran will soon take effect, and a new round of sanctions has been imposed on multiple entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. - Trump said that the US expects to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base in Greenland is located, not involving the US taking over Greenland entirely, but making US military facilities such as the Pituffik Space Base under US sovereign control. - Multiple Democratic US senators said they would vote against the government appropriation bill that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security, greatly increasing the possibility of a partial "shutdown" of the federal government at the end of January due to lack of funds. - Trump may announce the new Federal Reserve Chairman as early as this week. Rick Rieder, an executive of global asset management giant BlackRock, has quickly become the top candidate, with the probability of his nomination rising from 4% to about 50%. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - January 30, 21:30, US PPI year - on - year (%) - January 28, 02:00, US M2 money supply - January 29, 03:00, Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy statement - January 29, 21:30, US November trade balance (imports and exports) [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The market is affected by macro - geopolitical events, repeatedly supporting the gold price to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Gold can be bought on dips after a callback when it is above the 20 - day moving average. At the same time, sell out - of - the - money call options to lock in the retracement risk [1] - For silver, the short - term suspension of the 232 investigation tariff by the US and the position - limit measures of the exchange have eased the capital sentiment. The price may enter a high - level oscillation. Be cautious about unilateral participation. Sell out - of - the - money call options to earn volatility - reduction returns [1] - The spot supply of crude gold in London is tightening. It can be bought on dips when it retraces to the 20 - day moving average. The price generally fluctuates in the range of 587 - 640 yuan, and an option straddle strategy can be used. Palladium performs relatively weaker than platinum, and out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Price - AU2604 contract closed at 1092.30 yuan/gram on January 21, up 32.14 yuan or 3.03% from January 20 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 23131 (unit not clear) on January 21, up 0.30% from January 20; another silver - related data closed at 628.50 yuan/kg, up 9.15 yuan or 1.48% [1] - PT2606 contract data not provided; PD2606 contract closed at 485.80, down 4.20 or - 0.86% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Price - COMEX gold main contract closed at 4836.20 on January 21, up 67.10 or 1.41% from January 20 [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at 92.96, down 1.51 or - 1.59% [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2478.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.20 or - 0.05% [1] - NYMEX lithium - gold main contract (assumed to be misspelled, might be palladium - gold) closed at 1874.50, down 34.00 or - 1.78% [1] Spot Price - London gold was at 4832.97, up 1.47% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 93.10, down 1.43 or - 1.51% [1] - Spot platinum was at 2481.58 dollars/ounce, up 15.48 or 0.63% [1] - Another "spot aluminum - gold" (might be misspelled) was at 1845.16, down 29.18 or - 1.56% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1085.93 yuan/gram, up 29.94 yuan or 2.84% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 23228 yuan/ten - gram, up 79 or 0.34% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 628 yuan/5 - gram, up 15 or 2.45% [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was - 6.37, down 2.20 from the previous value, at the 46.10% quantile of the past year [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was 97, up 10 from the previous value, at the 60.60% quantile [1] - London gold - COMEX gold basis was - 2.06, up 2.92 from the previous value, at the 92.90% quantile [1] - London silver - COMEX silver basis was 0.19, unchanged from the previous value, at the 90.00% quantile [1] Price Ratio - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 52.03, up 1.54 or 3.05% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver ratio was 47.22, up 1.25 or 2.72% [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.32, up 0.02 or 1.76% [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium ratio was 1.29, up 0.03 or 2.35% [1] Interest Rate and Exchange Rate - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26%, down 0.04% or - 0.9% from the previous value [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.60%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, down 0.05% or - 2.5% [1] - US dollar index was 98.77, up 0.23 or 0.23% [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9601, up 0.0043 or 0.06% [1] Inventory and Position - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was unchanged at 066666 (format might be wrong), with a 0.00% change [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 600779 kg, down 17803 kg or - 2.88% [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 36142880, up 6979 or 0.02% [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 422313658, down 4162840 or - 0.98% [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18864397, down 418419 or - 2.17% [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 119542538, down 3448830 or - 2.80% [1] - SPRD gold ETF position was 1078, down 4.00 or - 0.37% [1] - SLV silver ETF position was 18166, down 56.38 or - 0.35% [1]