证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 本周行业市场表现强势，产业链价格整体强势 相关研究： | 《本周行业大幅反弹，产业链价格维持涨》 | | | --- | --- | | 20260215 | | | 《本周行业大幅回调，产业链价格保持坚 | | | 挺》 | 20260208 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 17 35 100 绝对收益 17 39 119 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场行情：本周稀土磁材行业大涨 12.72%，跑赢基准 11.64pct 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业大幅上涨 12.72%，跑赢基准（沪深 300） 11.64pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）提升 10.52x 至 96.91x，当前处于 96.4%2 历史分位 ...

Industry Overview - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw an increase of 8.84% in the week before the holiday, outperforming the benchmark by 8.48 percentage points [4] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E ratio) rebounded to 86.39x, currently at 93.3% of its historical percentile [4] Price Trends - Rare earth concentrate prices showed a steady increase, with the average price of mixed carbonate rare earth ore remaining stable, while imported monazite prices rose by 6.72% [5] - The price of praseodymium and neodymium saw significant increases, with praseodymium oxide prices up by 12.21% and praseodymium metal prices up by 10.38% [5] - Dysprosium and terbium prices also increased, with dysprosium oxide prices rising by 5.73% and terbium oxide prices by 3.49% [5] - The price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron magnets continued to rise, with N35 and H35 grades increasing by 1.73% and 1.23% respectively [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side remains stable with upstream production normal during the holiday, while downstream neodymium-iron-boron enterprises are on break, leading to reduced market consumption [8] - Post-holiday, there is an expectation for increased raw material demand as production resumes in downstream sectors [8] - The demand for new energy vehicles is experiencing a marginal decline, while wind power installations are expected to release some demand [8] Investment Recommendations - The industry maintains an "overweight" rating, supported by high valuation levels and potential policy easing post-holiday [9] - Focus on upstream rare earth resource companies due to policy support and stable pricing trends, which may lead to valuation premiums and stable profits [9] - Downstream magnetic material companies are expected to see profit recovery, particularly those with strong customer structures and new growth opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][44]. Core Insights - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has shown a strong performance, with a 2.95% increase this week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 3.52 percentage points [5][12]. - The valuation of the industry (TTM P/E) has rebounded to 82.16x, currently at the 91.5% historical percentile [5][12]. - The prices of rare earth concentrates have expanded, with significant increases in praseodymium and neodymium prices, while dysprosium and terbium prices have shown fluctuations [6][9][19]. - The supply side of rare earths is tight, with limited availability of oxides, while the demand remains stable, indicating that prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [42][43]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of 13%, a 3-month return of -4%, and a 12-month return of 65% [4]. - Absolute returns for the same periods are 18%, -1%, and 90% respectively [4]. Price Trends - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate prices increased by 9.3%, while prices for Sichuan and Shandong fluorocarbon cerium ores rose by 7.89% and 9.09% respectively [9][12]. - The average price of praseodymium oxide rose by 8% to 675,000 CNY/ton, and the average price of praseodymium metal increased by 7.06% to 811,000 CNY/ton [16][19]. - The average price of neodymium-iron-boron sintered blocks increased by 9.36% for N35 and 6.38% for H35 [38]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued focus on upstream rare earth resource companies due to market sentiment recovery and strategic value positioning [44]. - Downstream magnetic material companies are expected to see profit recovery as rare earth prices rise, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies with strong customer structures and future growth potential, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [10][44].

Summary of Rare Earth Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the rare earth industry, particularly the dynamics affecting prices and supply-demand relationships for rare earth elements, especially neodymium and praseodymium [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments Price Dynamics - Rare earth prices, particularly neodymium oxide, have seen significant fluctuations, with prices rising from 580,000 CNY at the end of December to a peak of 680,000 CNY in January, with some quotes reaching 690,000 CNY [2][3]. - The price increase was unexpected by many in the industry, including large enterprises and spot market clients [2]. Factors Driving Price Increases 1. **Low Social Inventory**: Continuous declines in inventory levels in 2023 and 2024 have led to a pessimistic market sentiment, discouraging traders from holding excess stock [3]. 2. **Policy Impact**: New regulations since October 2024 have significantly affected waste recycling companies and smelting plants, increasing supply concentration and reducing the market share of private enterprises [3]. 3. **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: The exit of gray market players and reduced supply from imports (e.g., from Myanmar and the US) have exacerbated the supply-demand conflict [3]. Future Market Outlook - The rare earth market is expected to reach a balance in supply and demand by 2026, with social inventory stabilizing and industry concentration increasing [5]. - Neodymium prices are projected to rise to 600,000-800,000 CNY, with potential peaks reaching 1,000,000 CNY [5][6]. - The production of nickel-iron-boron is expected to grow by 10% to 440,000 tons, indicating strong downstream demand [1][6]. Supply Expansion Potential - Australia (Lynas) and the US (MP Materials) are expected to significantly expand global rare earth supply, with Lynas aiming to increase neodymium production from 15,000 tons to 25,000-30,000 tons by 2026 [7][8]. - Other countries like Vietnam and India are also developing projects, but their scale is relatively small compared to Australia and the US [7]. Recycling and Policy Implications - Waste recycling has a limited impact on the rare earth market due to insufficient raw materials and unclear policy standards [9][10]. - China's export controls aim to secure strategic resources, with a slight reduction in export volumes but overall limited impact on the market [11][13]. Demand Growth Areas - The magnetic steel sector, particularly humanoid robots, is anticipated to be the largest growth area for rare earth demand [14]. - The demand from the electric vehicle sector remains stable, with annual requirements exceeding 100,000 tons [15]. Price Regulation and Market Control - The government may release quotas to regulate prices, contingent on compliance capacity and market conditions [18]. - The high point for prices is expected in the third quarter of 2026 due to increased orders and low inventory levels [20]. Market Sentiment and Future Trends - The suspension of contracts by Zhonglian Jin has affected market sentiment but has not significantly impacted supply-demand relationships [22]. - The future of dysprosium iron (DyFe) is expected to stabilize due to new management practices in China, which will control supply and pricing [23]. Comparative Analysis - Neodymium prices are expected to outperform dysprosium due to stronger demand and less inventory [26]. - The overall outlook for the rare earth industry remains positive, with potential price increases driven by market dynamics and regulatory measures [27]. Additional Insights - The integration trend in China's rare earth mining industry is expected to continue, with major players consolidating operations and managing production more effectively [28]. - Despite the global push to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths, China is likely to maintain a dominant position in the market due to its cost and technological advantages [28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has seen a significant increase of 8.85% this week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 6.06 percentage points [4][11] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has rebounded to 79.91x, which is at the 90.6% historical percentile [4][11] - The prices of rare earth concentrates continue to rise, with notable increases in praseodymium and neodymium prices, while dysprosium and terbium prices have surged significantly [5][19] - The supply side remains relatively stable, with a tight circulation of oxides, while the demand side shows stability despite some short-term pressures on high-priced procurement [39] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of 5%, a 3-month return of -5%, and a 12-month return of 68% [3] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 9%, -4%, and 94% respectively [3] Price Trends - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate prices increased by 4.88%, while prices for Sichuan and Shandong fluorocarbon cerium ores rose by 5.56% and 6.45% respectively [8][12] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose by 2.88%, and the metal price increased by 3.06% [15] - Dysprosium oxide prices surged by 7.46%, and dysprosium metal prices increased by 12.02% [19] - The average price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron N35 increased by 3.46%, while H35 rose by 2.33% [35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, citing a recovery in market sentiment and resilient pricing in the supply chain [40][41] - It is recommended to focus on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from valuation premiums and stable profits [41] - Downstream magnetic material companies with good customer structures and potential growth points, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet, are also highlighted for attention [41]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10] Core Insights - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.81% this week, lagging behind the benchmark (CSI 300) by 1.53 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has decreased by 1.42x to 72.08x, currently at the 85.5% historical percentile [5][12] - Supply of rare earths remains tight, with separation companies continuing to reduce production, and no new output expected [40] - Demand from downstream sectors is stable but weak, with a decrease in procurement intentions due to high upstream prices [40] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of -1%, -6% over three months, and a significant 53% over twelve months [4] - Absolute returns are -2% for one month, -4% for three months, and 69% for twelve months [4] Price Trends - Prices for imported light and medium-heavy rare earth ores continue to decline, with specific decreases noted in praseodymium-neodymium and dysprosium prices [6][9][20] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide has decreased by 0.86% to 574,000 CNY/ton, while the metal price has dropped by 1.06% to 697,500 CNY/ton [14][16] - Dysprosium and terbium prices have also continued to fall, with dysprosium oxide down 1.46% and terbium oxide down 2.23% [20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, highlighting that while there is pressure on high valuations due to low risk appetite, the market may stabilize with improved downstream operations and export demand [10][41] - It is recommended to focus on upstream rare earth resource companies due to expected supply tightening and strategic value positioning, as well as on downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and growth potential [10][43]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10][42] Core Insights - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has shown a price increase of 3.47% this week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.19 percentage points. The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has risen by 2.37 times to 74.16, currently at 87.3% of its historical percentile [5][12] - Supply tightening in the rare earth sector is supporting price increases, while heavy rare earth prices continue to decline. The market is experiencing a mixed demand scenario, with stable demand from downstream neodymium-iron-boron enterprises and expectations of increased exports [9][41] - The report indicates that the short-term outlook for rare earth prices is expected to remain strong due to supply constraints, low market inventory, and stable downstream demand, alongside long-term policy expectations [10][41] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past 12 months with a relative return of 47% and an absolute return of 64% [4] - The industry valuation has increased to 74.16, reflecting a recovery in market sentiment [5][12] Price Trends - Rare earth concentrate prices have continued to rise, with mixed carbonate rare earth prices increasing by 2.7% to 3.8 million CNY/ton, and heavy rare earth prices showing a mixed trend [9][12] - Neodymium prices have seen a slight increase followed by a correction, with average prices for neodymium oxide rising by 2.82% to 58.3 million CNY/ton [16] - Dysprosium and terbium prices have continued to decline, with dysprosium oxide prices dropping by 4.41% to 1410 CNY/kg [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies due to supply tightening and strategic value positioning. Downstream magnetic material companies are also expected to benefit from price recovery [10][43]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][41] Core Insights - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has rebounded by 2.6% this week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 0.96 percentage points. The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has increased by 1.85 times to 71.79, currently at 85.5% of its historical percentile [5][12] - The supply side of the rare earth segment is generally tight, with some separation enterprises experiencing reduced operating rates due to maintenance or raw material issues, leading to a tight supply of oxides. The demand side shows stable domestic orders and a gradual recovery in overseas market demand, indicating a steady increase in downstream demand [40][41] - The report suggests that the price and prosperity of the industry are expected to continue to rise, supported by tightening supply expectations and improving export demand following the easing of export controls [10][41] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of -8% over one month, -18% over three months, and a positive 50% over twelve months. Absolute returns are -11%, -17%, and 67% respectively [4] - The rare earth concentrate prices have generally rebounded, with domestic mixed rare earth carbonate prices rising by 2.78% to 37,000 CNY/ton, and imported monazite prices increasing by 4.95% to 53,000 CNY/ton [9][14] Price Trends - The price of praseodymium and neodymium has continued to rise, with praseodymium oxide averaging 567,000 CNY/ton (up 3.28%) and neodymium metal averaging 688,000 CNY/ton (up 2.69%) [16][17] - Dysprosium prices have continued to decline, with dysprosium oxide averaging 1,475 CNY/kg (down 0.67%) and dysprosium metal averaging 1,430 CNY/kg (down 1.72%) [20] - The price of neodymium-iron-boron blanks has stabilized before rising, with N35 averaging 142.5 CNY/kg (up 3.64%) and H35 averaging 212.5 CNY/kg (up 2.41%) [36] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, emphasizing the potential benefits for upstream rare earth resource companies due to tightening supply expectations and strategic value positioning. It also highlights the recovery of profitability and valuation premiums for downstream magnetic material companies, particularly those with strong customer structures and growth potential, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [10][42]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][42] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has shown a weak performance, with a decline of 4.05% this week, underperforming the benchmark by 4.87 percentage points [5][12] - The current industry valuation (TTM P/E) has decreased by 3.09 times to 77.22 times, which is at 88.9% of its historical percentile [5][12] - The prices of rare earth concentrates have continued to rise, with specific increases in praseodymium and neodymium prices, while dysprosium prices have declined [6][9][19] - The market sentiment has improved due to favorable policies, but the overall bullish expectations remain weak, leading to a cautious outlook [41][42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has experienced a relative return of -1% over the past month, 0% over three months, and 42% over the past year [4] - Absolute returns are 0% for one month, 13% for three months, and 55% for twelve months [4] Price Trends - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate prices have increased by 5.88%, 3.33%, and 4% for different types of rare earth minerals [9][12] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium has risen by 4.52% and 5.12% respectively [16] - Dysprosium prices have decreased by 1.27%, while terbium prices have remained stable with a slight increase of 0.76% [19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to decrease, while demand is anticipated to increase, leading to a stable outlook for rare earth prices [41][42] - The demand from downstream sectors, particularly in new energy vehicles, is showing signs of marginal decline, but overall industrial trends remain positive [41][42] Valuation and Earnings - Current absolute and relative historical valuation levels are supported by liquidity easing and industry policy, but high valuations face pressure from declining market risk appetite [41][42] - The report suggests that as rare earth prices continue to rise, downstream magnetic material companies are likely to see sustained earnings recovery [43]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][46] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials sector experienced a slight decline of 0.21% this week but outperformed the benchmark (CSI 300) by 0.22 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has decreased to 80.31x, influenced by third-quarter earnings, currently at the 90.8% historical percentile [5][12] - The prices of rare earth minerals have shown a significant rebound, with domestic mixed rare earth carbonate, Sichuan fluorocarbon cerium ore, and Shandong fluorocarbon cerium ore prices increasing by 9.68%, 11.11%, and 13.64% respectively [9][15] - The market sentiment is improving, with expectations of stable demand and potential recovery in export demand, despite short-term price pressures [44][46] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials sector slightly declined by 0.21% this week but outperformed the CSI 300 benchmark by 0.22 percentage points [5][12] - Over the past 12 months, the sector has shown a relative return of 76% compared to the CSI 300 [4] Price Trends - Prices for rare earth minerals have rebounded significantly, with notable increases in various categories, including a 5.99% rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices [9][18] - Dysprosium prices have shown a slight recovery, while terbium prices continue to decline [21] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to tighten due to regulatory measures and a potential reduction in production from separation enterprises, while demand remains stable [44] - The demand from downstream sectors, particularly in new energy vehicles and wind power, is showing signs of marginal decline, but overall industrial trends remain positive [44] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material enterprises with strong customer structures and growth potential [46][10]