证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 本周行业仍跑输大盘，需求支撑不足下产业链价格延续下行 相关研究： | 《本周行业表现弱于大盘，产业链价格维持 | | | --- | --- | | 疲弱》 | 20251214 | | 《镨钕受供给收紧支撑价格上行，中重稀土 | | | 价格跌势延续》 | 20251207 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1 -6 53 绝对收益 -2 -4 69 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业下跌 1.81%，跑输基准（沪深 300）1.53 pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）回落 1.42x 至 72.08x，当前处于 85.5%2历 史分位。 ❑ 本周进口轻稀土矿及中重稀土矿价格延续下行，镨钕价格弱 ...

行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 镨钕受供给收紧支撑价格上行，中重稀土价格跌势延续 相关研究： | 《本周轻稀土链价格延续回升，中重稀土价 | | --- | | 格仍疲软》 20251130 | | 《本周行业延续跌势，轻稀土链价格回升》 | | 20251123 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -2 -9 47 绝对收益 -3 -6 64 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 湘财证券研究所 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场行情：本周稀土磁材行业上涨 3.47%，跑赢基准 2.19 pct 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业上涨 3.47%，跑赢基准（沪深 300）2.19 pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）回升 2.37x 至 74.16x，当前处于 87.3%2历 史分位。 ❑ 本周稀土精矿价格延续 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 本周轻稀土链价格延续回升，中重稀土价格仍疲软 相关研究： | 《本周行业延续跌势，轻稀土链价格回升》 | | | --- | --- | | 20251123 | | | 《本周行业继续调整，产业链价格短期转 | | | 弱》 | 20251116 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -8 -18 50 绝对收益 -11 -17 67 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 ◆ 基本面变化。稀土环节，供应端总体呈现偏紧态势，部分分离企业因 检修或原料问题开工率有所下降，导致氧化物现货供应偏紧；金属厂 整体生产稳定，但头部企业散单流出减少，多以长协订单为主，金属 端现货仍有一定支撑。需求端，磁材企业保持较高开工率，国内订单 稳定，同时海外市场需求正逐步恢复， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][42] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has shown a weak performance, with a decline of 4.05% this week, underperforming the benchmark by 4.87 percentage points [5][12] - The current industry valuation (TTM P/E) has decreased by 3.09 times to 77.22 times, which is at 88.9% of its historical percentile [5][12] - The prices of rare earth concentrates have continued to rise, with specific increases in praseodymium and neodymium prices, while dysprosium prices have declined [6][9][19] - The market sentiment has improved due to favorable policies, but the overall bullish expectations remain weak, leading to a cautious outlook [41][42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has experienced a relative return of -1% over the past month, 0% over three months, and 42% over the past year [4] - Absolute returns are 0% for one month, 13% for three months, and 55% for twelve months [4] Price Trends - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate prices have increased by 5.88%, 3.33%, and 4% for different types of rare earth minerals [9][12] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium has risen by 4.52% and 5.12% respectively [16] - Dysprosium prices have decreased by 1.27%, while terbium prices have remained stable with a slight increase of 0.76% [19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to decrease, while demand is anticipated to increase, leading to a stable outlook for rare earth prices [41][42] - The demand from downstream sectors, particularly in new energy vehicles, is showing signs of marginal decline, but overall industrial trends remain positive [41][42] Valuation and Earnings - Current absolute and relative historical valuation levels are supported by liquidity easing and industry policy, but high valuations face pressure from declining market risk appetite [41][42] - The report suggests that as rare earth prices continue to rise, downstream magnetic material companies are likely to see sustained earnings recovery [43]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][46] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials sector experienced a slight decline of 0.21% this week but outperformed the benchmark (CSI 300) by 0.22 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has decreased to 80.31x, influenced by third-quarter earnings, currently at the 90.8% historical percentile [5][12] - The prices of rare earth minerals have shown a significant rebound, with domestic mixed rare earth carbonate, Sichuan fluorocarbon cerium ore, and Shandong fluorocarbon cerium ore prices increasing by 9.68%, 11.11%, and 13.64% respectively [9][15] - The market sentiment is improving, with expectations of stable demand and potential recovery in export demand, despite short-term price pressures [44][46] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials sector slightly declined by 0.21% this week but outperformed the CSI 300 benchmark by 0.22 percentage points [5][12] - Over the past 12 months, the sector has shown a relative return of 76% compared to the CSI 300 [4] Price Trends - Prices for rare earth minerals have rebounded significantly, with notable increases in various categories, including a 5.99% rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices [9][18] - Dysprosium prices have shown a slight recovery, while terbium prices continue to decline [21] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to tighten due to regulatory measures and a potential reduction in production from separation enterprises, while demand remains stable [44] - The demand from downstream sectors, particularly in new energy vehicles and wind power, is showing signs of marginal decline, but overall industrial trends remain positive [44] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material enterprises with strong customer structures and growth potential [46][10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10][46] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a significant decline of 8.06% this week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 7.62 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) decreased from 95.79x to 88.3x, currently at the 94.2% historical percentile [5][12] - Supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to slightly increase due to stable operations of separation enterprises and increased output from recycling companies, while demand remains stable with expectations of increased end-user consumption in October [7][45] - The market is anticipated to remain in a stalemate with overall rare earth prices stabilizing [7][45] Market Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of -5%, a 3-month return of 37%, and a 12-month return of 108% [4] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 1%, 55%, and 149% respectively [4] Price Trends - Prices for light rare earth concentrates have mostly rebounded, while medium and heavy rare earth prices remain weak [9][14] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.7% to 571,000 CNY/ton, and the metal price decreased by 0.43% to 700,000 CNY/ton [19][22] - The price of neodymium-iron-boron blanks saw a slight increase of 0.7% to 144.5 CNY/kg [41] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply is slightly increasing due to stable operations in the praseodymium and neodymium segment, while demand is supported by stable orders from major magnetic material manufacturers [7][45] - The demand from downstream sectors such as new energy vehicles is showing marginal decline, while industrial trends remain positive [7][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a cautious approach due to potential valuation adjustments from suppressed risk appetite, while focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and growth potential [10][46][47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry rebounded by 3.89% this week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.51 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) increased by 3.55 times to 95.79 times, currently at 96.3% of its historical percentile [5][12] - The supply of rare earths remains tight in the short term, with stable operations in upstream mineral separation enterprises, while waste separation enterprises are increasing output [41][42] - Demand from magnetic material companies is stable, with high operating rates among large manufacturers and a gradual release of new demand [41][42] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of gradual price rebounds for rare earths as low-priced spot supplies decrease [41][42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a relative return of 16% over one month, 41% over three months, and 129% over twelve months [4] - Absolute returns were 25% over one month, 57% over three months, and 171% over twelve months [4] Price Trends - This week, the prices of rare earth concentrates significantly declined, with mixed carbonate rare earth ore prices dropping by 10% [9][14] - Praseodymium and neodymium prices fell initially but rebounded, while dysprosium prices stabilized after a decline [6][9] - The price of neodymium-iron-boron blanks fell by 2.71% for N35 and 1.84% for H35 [9][37] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a mixed trend, with some upstream mineral separation enterprises experiencing slight operational declines due to raw material constraints, while waste separation enterprises are increasing output [41][42] - Demand remains strong, supported by stable orders from large manufacturers and an increase in export quantities [41][42] Valuation and Performance Outlook - Current absolute and relative historical valuation levels are supported by loose liquidity and expectations of price increases in the industry chain [42] - The report suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply expectations and easing export controls [10][42] - Long-term, as rare earth prices gradually recover, downstream magnetic material companies are expected to see continued profit recovery [10][43]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10][47] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a significant decline of 6.63% last week, underperforming the benchmark by 4.88 percentage points [5][12] - The valuation of the industry (TTM P/E) has decreased by 6 times to 84.89, currently at 94.3% of its historical percentile [5][12] - The prices of rare earth concentrates continue to rise, with significant increases in light rare earth minerals, while praseodymium and neodymium prices are also on an upward trend [6][9][19] - Demand remains stable, with expectations of increased orders in the third quarter, while supply is expected to tighten due to reduced imports and high waste material prices [10][46] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a relative return of 22% over the past month, 37% over three months, and 79% over the past year, with absolute returns of 24%, 45%, and 98% respectively [4] Price Trends - Prices for domestic mixed carbonate rare earth minerals and specific rare earth mines have increased significantly, with increases of 9.68%, 11.11%, and 13.64% for various mines [9][14] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 3.31% and 3.55% respectively, indicating a strong market outlook [19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply remains tight due to reduced imports and high prices for waste materials, while demand is expected to increase with the easing of export controls [10][46] - The overall market sentiment is bullish, with expectations for continued price increases in the near future [10][46] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply and increased demand due to relaxed export controls [10][48] - Long-term prospects for downstream magnetic material companies are positive, particularly for those with strong customer structures and new growth opportunities [10][48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][12] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a decline of 2.82% last week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 0.53 percentage points. The industry valuation (TTM P/E) fell by 1.7x to 65.9x, currently at the 81st percentile of historical levels [5][12] - Despite a slight weakening in rare earth prices, the downward space is limited due to stable production and relatively tight supply at the mining end. The demand side has not shown significant new orders, keeping prices stable for the time being. The overall demand in the air conditioning sector remains strong, with production and sales expected to maintain steady growth in the coming quarter [12][35] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a relative return of 1% over one month, 6% over three months, and 11% over twelve months. Absolute returns were 0%, 5%, and 21% respectively [4] Price Trends - Last week, the prices of light rare earth minerals remained stable, with mixed carbonate rare earth ore at 26,000 CNY/ton, and heavy rare earth minerals also holding steady [6] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium weakened slightly, with the average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 444,500 CNY/ton, and the metal price down by 0.18% to 544,500 CNY/ton [7] - Dysprosium prices fell by 2.05% to 1,675 CNY/kg, while terbium prices decreased by 0.98% to 6,560 CNY/kg [8] Industry Demand - The production and sales of household air conditioners showed double-digit growth in January and February 2025, with production at 16.785 million units (up 42.9%) and sales at 16.790 million units (up 36.3%) [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while the rare earth raw material production remains stable and inventory is low, the overall industry performance is still at a recovery stage. The absolute and relative historical valuation levels are high, indicating potential overvaluation pressure. The recommendation to maintain an "Overweight" rating reflects the expectation of steady demand growth in the industrial sector [12][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - In February 2025, the rare earth permanent magnet industry saw a significant increase of 13%, outperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 10.15 percentage points. The industry's valuation (TTM P/E) rose from 81.66x at the beginning of the month to 92.28x, ending the month at the 98.6% historical high percentile [4][19] - The prices of rare earth raw materials have shown a notable increase, with the average price of mixed rare earth carbonate rising by 11.16% month-on-month to 24,900 CNY/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 12.16% [5] - The demand in downstream sectors remains robust, particularly in the air conditioning and new energy vehicle markets, despite a temporary decline in production due to the Spring Festival [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The industry achieved a relative return of 4% over one month, 2% over three months, and 38% over twelve months, with absolute returns of 7%, 4%, and 51% respectively [3] Raw Material Prices - Significant month-on-month increases in prices for various rare earth materials were observed, including: - Mixed rare earth carbonate: +11.16% to 24,900 CNY/ton - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide: +6.55% to 435,000 CNY/ton - Dysprosium oxide: +3.99% to 1,715 CNY/kg [5][6][7] Downstream Demand - The air conditioning sector experienced a production decline of 4.2% year-on-year in January 2025, attributed to the Spring Festival timing, but sales remained strong with an 8.7% increase in total sales [11] - The new energy vehicle sector continued to thrive, with production increasing by 28.96% year-on-year in January 2025 [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while the industry faces overcapacity and competitive pressures, the demand in key sectors like air conditioning and new energy vehicles provides a solid foundation for future growth. The current valuation levels are high, indicating potential overvaluation risks, thus maintaining the "Overweight" rating [13]