证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 本周行业市场表现强势，产业链价格整体强势 相关研究： | 《本周行业大幅反弹，产业链价格维持涨》 | | | --- | --- | | 20260215 | | | 《本周行业大幅回调，产业链价格保持坚 | | | 挺》 | 20260208 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 17 35 100 绝对收益 17 39 119 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场行情：本周稀土磁材行业大涨 12.72%，跑赢基准 11.64pct 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业大幅上涨 12.72%，跑赢基准（沪深 300） 11.64pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）提升 10.52x 至 96.91x，当前处于 96.4%2 历史分位 ...

一、行情 2月25日，磷化工、稀土、化工等大宗商品板块集体持续大涨。澄星股份、金正大、六国化工、和邦生物、云天化、金浦钛业等集体2连板，清水源 （20CM）、司尔特、中色股份、包钢股份、中铝国际等纷纷涨停。 二、事件 1）百川盈孚数据显示，稀土产品价格加速上涨。氧化镨钕等主要稀土产品价格近期持续走高，现货供应紧张，下游磁材企业存在备货采购需求。 2）2月18日，美国签署行政命令，将磷元素及草甘膦除草剂提升至国家安全优先事项，指出这两种物资的短缺将对国家安全构成直接威胁。 1）美国针对中国的芬太尼关税及对等关税（合计20%）将取消，同时，特朗普将针对全球征收15%临时进口关税，这意味着合计关税将下降5%。 叠加去年贸易摩擦下，海外库存低位，26年出口链景气有望修复。节后化工下游开工陆续恢复，全年维度需求端景气向上，供给端资本开支进入尾声，化工 行业周期拐点已现，春旺下基本面与市值有望共振向上。（申万宏源） 2）美国将元素磷和草甘膦类除草剂列为国防关键物资，磷的战略地位在美国政策体系中被明确抬升。此举或意味着磷矿的价值重估将增加一层具备地缘政 治属性的战略物资意义。中国作为拥有完备磷化工产业链和全球最高磷矿石/磷 ...

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 以下文章来源于松果财经 ，作者青元 松果财经 . 专注于产业经济报道，深度解析企业、产品、策略商业、经济价值。 估值不从利润来。 作者丨 青元 来源丨 松果财经 2月3日，稀土概念大涨。消息面上，媒体报道美国计划启动关键矿产储备项目"金库计划"，用120亿美元支持关键矿产保障，稀土占重要位置，战略金 属的长期溢价逻辑再次被强化。 不过，之前几大稀土龙头——北方稀土、中国稀土、中稀有色、盛和资源的业绩预告显示，归母净利润均明显上涨，但都没达到市场的一致预期。 截至目前，几大龙头中北方稀土市值超过1800亿元，前几天巅峰曾超过2000亿元。从估值来看，稀土的钱，实在是可赚可不赚。 稀土经济学 稀土的第一层误解叫"稀"。它在地壳里并不罕见，难点落在浓度与分离。 你可以把它想象成蛋糕里的巧克力碎。巧克力不少，但要剔除出来难上加难，还要按颜色、大小、口感干净地分类。稀土元素化学性质相似，矿床常常 共生复杂，原矿品位又低，先选矿得到精矿，再化学处理、溶剂萃取、离子交换把不同元素逐一分离提纯，最后还原成金属单质。 对于习惯了轻资产高收益赚钱模式的国家，从筹资到规模化产出显著收益 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Insights - The rare earth sector is expected to experience a dual boost in profitability and valuation, with a focus on asset integration opportunities within rare earth groups [3][6]. - Recent export control measures highlight the strategic value of rare earths, potentially mirroring the situation in 2010, where a significant reduction in export quotas led to a dramatic price increase for neodymium oxide [6]. - Supply and demand dynamics are expected to support rare earth prices, with neodymium oxide prices remaining above 600,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and recovering overseas demand [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The rare earth sector is anticipated to see profitability and valuation improvements, emphasizing the importance of asset integration within rare earth groups. Recommended stocks include Northern Rare Earth (600111, Buy), among others [3]. Industry Overview - The recent export control policy by the Ministry of Commerce is a response to geopolitical tensions and is expected to stimulate overseas stocking demand, thereby supporting prices [6]. - Supply-side constraints are anticipated due to environmental regulations and production quota issues, which may lead to temporary shutdowns in some processing plants [6].

这并非单方面的压迫，而是双方之间的相互制衡。美国掌握着关键技术和设备，每次施压时，中国的高科技产业就必须咬牙承受，不断补课、攻关。而当中 国收紧稀土供应，尤其是重稀土时，美欧的多条生产线将受到影响，排产表也会因此乱套。如此恐怖的平衡反而成为了中美关系中的压舱石，因为双方都不 愿意让这艘船倾覆。那么接下来该怎么走呢？杨荣文认为，接下来的发展将是贸易战争。他指出，美国的国内政治因素不可忽视，特朗普对选民的考量、对 中期选举的关注以及对国会控制权的担忧，比外交言辞更加重要。如果对抗中国导致通货膨胀失控、供应链中断、经济下滑，选民就不会买账。为了保住自 己的地位，维持一种表面稳定且可控的对华关系，变得更加现实。由此也可以理解，为什么美国最近在某些问题上嘴上说得多，行动却收敛了。 最近，新加坡前外长杨荣文提出了一个尖锐的比喻：他把美国比作一只爱吵闹的孙悟空，而中国手中则有一项可以驯服它的法宝——稀土。他提醒大家，稀 土这一牌并不是最近才被提出的，早在上世纪九十年代就已经被摆在桌面上了，只是当时很多人选择了忽视。那个时候，美国习惯于制定规则、施加压力， 并认为中国的抗议仅仅是形式，生意最终依旧会继续。美国把中国的克制当作 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Maintain "Overweight" [4] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has continued its downward trend, with a 5.29% decline this week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 1.52 percentage points [6][13] - The current industry valuation (TTM P/E) has decreased by 3.97x to 69.94x, which is at 84.1% of the historical percentile [6][13] - Light rare earth concentrate prices have rebounded, while medium and heavy rare earth prices have slightly declined [7][10] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of price stabilization and potential upward trends in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [10][44] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials sector has seen a relative return of -12% over the past month, -9% over three months, and a positive 46% over the past year [5] - Absolute returns are -15% for one month, -5% for three months, and 57% for twelve months [5] Price Movements - Light rare earth concentrate prices have increased by 2.86% to 3.6 million CNY/ton, 3.23% to 3.2 million CNY/ton, and 3.85% to 2.7 million CNY/ton for different mines [10] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide has risen by 0.73% to 549,000 CNY/ton, while praseodymium-neodymium metal has slightly decreased by 0.15% [15][17] - Dysprosium prices have continued to decline by 1.66% to 1,485 CNY/kg, and terbium prices have also decreased [22] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that despite high valuation pressures, the expected recovery in rare earth prices and demand could lead to improved profitability for downstream magnetic material companies [44][45] - It is recommended to focus on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and growth potential [11][45]

Core Points - The new export regulations on rare earths from China signify a strategic shift in the global resource competition, requiring foreign companies to adapt to Chinese standards [3][5][6] - China's dominance in the rare earth market is underscored by its control over over 90% of heavy rare earth resources and significant technological advantages in extraction and processing [9][17][28] - The recent regulations reflect a long-term strategy to enhance China's bargaining power in the global rare earth supply chain, which has historically been undervalued [41][55] Group 1: New Regulations - The new export control measures require all export license applications to be submitted in Chinese and in WPS format, a domestic software, rather than international formats like Word or PDF [3][5] - This regulatory change is part of a broader strategy to assert China's control over its rare earth resources and to ensure compliance from foreign companies [6][9] Group 2: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths are critical for modern industries, with applications in new energy, aerospace, and electronics, accounting for 70% of demand in emerging sectors [9][12] - The AI industry, in particular, relies heavily on rare earths for chip manufacturing, highlighting their strategic importance in technological advancements [12][56] Group 3: China's Resource Advantages - China possesses unique advantages in rare earth resources, being the only country with large-scale deposits of both light and heavy rare earths, controlling over 90% of heavy rare earth resources globally [17][26] - The Baiyun Obo mine in Inner Mongolia is noted as the world's largest light rare earth deposit, showcasing China's significant resource endowment [17][20] Group 4: Historical Context and Market Dynamics - China's rare earth industry has evolved from being a low-cost exporter to a more strategically controlled sector, especially after facing international legal challenges regarding export quotas [38][41] - The establishment of the China Rare Earth Group in 2021 aimed to consolidate the industry and enhance control over the supply chain, marking a significant shift in China's approach to rare earth management [52][55] Group 5: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite its strengths, China still faces challenges in high-end applications and needs to improve in areas like green mining and waste recovery [58][61] - The lack of a unified "Chinese price standard" in the international market indicates that China must continue to innovate and strengthen its position in high-value segments of the rare earth industry [61]

Group 1: Russia's Strategic Concerns - Russia's President Putin has signed a decree to establish a roadmap for rare earth and critical metals production by December 1, indicating a sense of urgency regarding the country's position in the global rare earth market [1][9] - The global competition for rare earth elements has intensified, with countries like the US and EU heavily reliant on China, which controls 90% of the world's rare earth refining capacity [2][8] - Putin's actions reflect a broader concern for national security and the need for Russia to develop its own rare earth capabilities to avoid dependency on foreign sources, especially in the context of military and technological advancements [6][12] Group 2: Global Rare Earth Market Dynamics - The US has expressed a strong desire to achieve "rare earth independence" within two years, as many advanced military technologies depend on these materials [6] - The EU and Japan also show high dependency on Chinese rare earths, with the EU relying on China for 82% and Japan for 91% of its needs [8] - The recent US-China trade negotiations highlighted the strategic value of rare earths, with both sides recognizing the potential disruptions caused by China's control over this resource [5] Group 3: Russia's Rare Earth Resources and Industry - Russia possesses significant rare earth resources, particularly in Siberia and the Far East, but lacks the necessary refining technology and industrial infrastructure to exploit these resources effectively [10][12] - Historically, Russia has not prioritized the development of its rare earth industry, focusing instead on its abundant energy resources [9][12] - The urgency for Russia to develop its rare earth sector is driven by the global shift towards green technologies and the need for rare earths in various applications, including military and civilian sectors [9][12] Group 4: Sino-Russian Cooperation - Despite Russia's push to develop its own rare earth capabilities, the relationship between Russia and China remains strong, particularly in the energy sector, where both countries benefit from mutual cooperation [13][15] - The collaboration extends beyond energy to include trade in coal, iron ore, and non-ferrous metals, indicating a growing interdependence in various resource sectors [15] - Both nations are working together in international forums to address global challenges, emphasizing the importance of their partnership in the current geopolitical landscape [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent agreement between China and the US to continue rare earth exports is a temporary resolution in an ongoing strategic competition, highlighting the critical role of rare earths in modern technology and global supply chains [1][13][15]. Group 1: Historical Context - Rare earth elements, including neodymium, praseodymium, europium, and terbium, are essential for modern electronics and have been a significant part of the global technology landscape since the late 20th century [5][7]. - In the late 1970s and 1980s, Japan and the US dominated the electronics market, while China, despite having the largest rare earth reserves, was primarily a raw material supplier [7][9]. - The imbalance in the rare earth supply chain began to surface in the 2000s, with China controlling 80%-90% of global exports but receiving minimal profits due to low pricing [9][11]. Group 2: Recent Developments - In 2010, a significant supply disruption occurred when China halted rare earth exports to Japan, leading to a dramatic increase in prices and highlighting the dependency of global industries on Chinese rare earths [11][13]. - The recent agreement in October 2025 to continue rare earth exports comes amid a backdrop of heightened strategic competition, particularly in the context of emerging technologies like AI, 5G, and electric vehicles [13][15]. - The current situation reflects a shift from China's role as a mere supplier to a key player with significant control over the entire rare earth supply chain, complicating efforts by the US and its allies to establish independent sources [15][16]. Group 3: Implications for Industries - The strategic value of rare earths has escalated due to their integral role in high-tech manufacturing, making them a focal point in the US-China tech rivalry [13][16]. - Traditional demand countries like the US and Japan are struggling to rebuild their supply chains, facing technological bottlenecks that hinder their ability to process rare earths independently [16]. - The ongoing competition and the recent agreement may provide temporary relief, but the fundamental dynamics of the global technology landscape and the strategic importance of rare earths remain unchanged [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent agreement between China and the U.S. to continue rare earth exports is a temporary resolution in a larger strategic competition, highlighting the critical role of rare earth elements in modern technology and global supply chains [1][10][15]. Group 1: Historical Context of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements, including neodymium, praseodymium, europium, and terbium, are essential for modern electronics, magnetic materials, and fluorescent materials [3][5]. - In the late 1970s and 1980s, Japan and the U.S. dominated the global electronics market, while China, despite having the richest rare earth reserves, was relegated to selling raw materials and lacked brand power in consumer electronics [5][6]. - By the 2000s, China controlled 80% to 90% of global rare earth exports, but the profits were minimal, leading to environmental degradation and resource depletion [6][7]. Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - The 2010 supply disruption, where China halted rare earth exports to Japan, caused significant price increases and production halts in various industries, revealing the vulnerabilities in the global supply chain [9][10]. - This disruption prompted Japan to seek alternative sources, but the lack of processing technology and capacity in other countries limited their options [9][12]. Group 3: Current Market Dynamics - In 2025, a new round of export controls by China has led to significant global supply chain shocks, with the U.S. stock market reacting strongly to the news [10][12]. - The strategic value of rare earths has increased due to the rise of new industries such as AI, 5G, and renewable energy, making them a critical component in high-tech manufacturing [10][13]. - Efforts by the U.S. and Europe to establish independent supply chains for rare earths have faced challenges, as domestic production cannot meet the current demand for advanced technologies [13][14]. Group 4: Future Implications - The recent agreement between China and the U.S. may provide temporary relief, but the underlying competition for technological supremacy remains unchanged, indicating that future disruptions are likely [15][17]. - Consumer choices in electronics can influence the global rare earth market, as purchasing products with stable supply chains indirectly supports China's dominance in the rare earth industry [17][18].