证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 本周行业延续跌势，轻稀土链价格回升 相关研究： | 《本周行业继续调整，产业链价格短期转 | | --- | | 弱》 20251116 | | 《本周行业表现延续弱势，轻重稀土价格走 | | 势分化》 20251109 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -12 -9 46 绝对收益 -15 -5 57 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场行情：本周稀土磁材行业下跌 5.29%，跑输基准 1.52 pct 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业下跌 5.29%，跑输基准（沪深 300）1.52 pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）回落 3.97x 至 69.94x，当前处于 84.1%2历 史分位。 ❑ 本周轻稀土精矿价格回升，中重 ...

地球知识局 文字 | 严寒 校对 | 朝乾 编辑 | 澄澈 10月9日，一项"最硬核"的稀土管制新规出台了，不仅让全球高科技企业开始集体学习中文和WPS操 作，更在改写全球战略资源的博弈规则。 这项新规来自中国商务部，内容是稀土相关物项的两项出口管制。其中有一个细节，十分引人注目：所 有出口许可申请文件必须以中文提交，而且附件材料全面采用国产办公软件的WPS格式，而非国际通 用的Word或PDF。 连文件格式都改国产了▼ 这意味着，那些曾依赖中国稀土却不愿遵守规则的企业，如今不得不适应新的游戏规则——按中国标准 办事。 中国稀土新规的颁布，WPS格式与中文申请只是表象，更深层的是中国对稀土战略价值的重新定位。 从2001年起，我国将稀土技术列入《禁止出口限制出口技术目录》，到2023年，对部分稀土实施出口许 可制度，到2024年实施全产业链监管，再到此次境外管制与技术管控的双重升级，一条清晰的战略脉络 已然显现。 全球一大半的稀土金属，都是中国造▼ 无论是先进制程的芯片，光互联技术改进，还是芯片相关的生产设备、测试设备和材料，甚至连发电与 冷却等场景，都离不开稀土。 稀土对全球AI供应链几乎拥有一票否决权—— ...

Group 1: Russia's Strategic Concerns - Russia's President Putin has signed a decree to establish a roadmap for rare earth and critical metals production by December 1, indicating a sense of urgency regarding the country's position in the global rare earth market [1][9] - The global competition for rare earth elements has intensified, with countries like the US and EU heavily reliant on China, which controls 90% of the world's rare earth refining capacity [2][8] - Putin's actions reflect a broader concern for national security and the need for Russia to develop its own rare earth capabilities to avoid dependency on foreign sources, especially in the context of military and technological advancements [6][12] Group 2: Global Rare Earth Market Dynamics - The US has expressed a strong desire to achieve "rare earth independence" within two years, as many advanced military technologies depend on these materials [6] - The EU and Japan also show high dependency on Chinese rare earths, with the EU relying on China for 82% and Japan for 91% of its needs [8] - The recent US-China trade negotiations highlighted the strategic value of rare earths, with both sides recognizing the potential disruptions caused by China's control over this resource [5] Group 3: Russia's Rare Earth Resources and Industry - Russia possesses significant rare earth resources, particularly in Siberia and the Far East, but lacks the necessary refining technology and industrial infrastructure to exploit these resources effectively [10][12] - Historically, Russia has not prioritized the development of its rare earth industry, focusing instead on its abundant energy resources [9][12] - The urgency for Russia to develop its rare earth sector is driven by the global shift towards green technologies and the need for rare earths in various applications, including military and civilian sectors [9][12] Group 4: Sino-Russian Cooperation - Despite Russia's push to develop its own rare earth capabilities, the relationship between Russia and China remains strong, particularly in the energy sector, where both countries benefit from mutual cooperation [13][15] - The collaboration extends beyond energy to include trade in coal, iron ore, and non-ferrous metals, indicating a growing interdependence in various resource sectors [15] - Both nations are working together in international forums to address global challenges, emphasizing the importance of their partnership in the current geopolitical landscape [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent agreement between China and the US to continue rare earth exports is a temporary resolution in an ongoing strategic competition, highlighting the critical role of rare earths in modern technology and global supply chains [1][13][15]. Group 1: Historical Context - Rare earth elements, including neodymium, praseodymium, europium, and terbium, are essential for modern electronics and have been a significant part of the global technology landscape since the late 20th century [5][7]. - In the late 1970s and 1980s, Japan and the US dominated the electronics market, while China, despite having the largest rare earth reserves, was primarily a raw material supplier [7][9]. - The imbalance in the rare earth supply chain began to surface in the 2000s, with China controlling 80%-90% of global exports but receiving minimal profits due to low pricing [9][11]. Group 2: Recent Developments - In 2010, a significant supply disruption occurred when China halted rare earth exports to Japan, leading to a dramatic increase in prices and highlighting the dependency of global industries on Chinese rare earths [11][13]. - The recent agreement in October 2025 to continue rare earth exports comes amid a backdrop of heightened strategic competition, particularly in the context of emerging technologies like AI, 5G, and electric vehicles [13][15]. - The current situation reflects a shift from China's role as a mere supplier to a key player with significant control over the entire rare earth supply chain, complicating efforts by the US and its allies to establish independent sources [15][16]. Group 3: Implications for Industries - The strategic value of rare earths has escalated due to their integral role in high-tech manufacturing, making them a focal point in the US-China tech rivalry [13][16]. - Traditional demand countries like the US and Japan are struggling to rebuild their supply chains, facing technological bottlenecks that hinder their ability to process rare earths independently [16]. - The ongoing competition and the recent agreement may provide temporary relief, but the fundamental dynamics of the global technology landscape and the strategic importance of rare earths remain unchanged [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent agreement between China and the U.S. to continue rare earth exports is a temporary resolution in a larger strategic competition, highlighting the critical role of rare earth elements in modern technology and global supply chains [1][10][15]. Group 1: Historical Context of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements, including neodymium, praseodymium, europium, and terbium, are essential for modern electronics, magnetic materials, and fluorescent materials [3][5]. - In the late 1970s and 1980s, Japan and the U.S. dominated the global electronics market, while China, despite having the richest rare earth reserves, was relegated to selling raw materials and lacked brand power in consumer electronics [5][6]. - By the 2000s, China controlled 80% to 90% of global rare earth exports, but the profits were minimal, leading to environmental degradation and resource depletion [6][7]. Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - The 2010 supply disruption, where China halted rare earth exports to Japan, caused significant price increases and production halts in various industries, revealing the vulnerabilities in the global supply chain [9][10]. - This disruption prompted Japan to seek alternative sources, but the lack of processing technology and capacity in other countries limited their options [9][12]. Group 3: Current Market Dynamics - In 2025, a new round of export controls by China has led to significant global supply chain shocks, with the U.S. stock market reacting strongly to the news [10][12]. - The strategic value of rare earths has increased due to the rise of new industries such as AI, 5G, and renewable energy, making them a critical component in high-tech manufacturing [10][13]. - Efforts by the U.S. and Europe to establish independent supply chains for rare earths have faced challenges, as domestic production cannot meet the current demand for advanced technologies [13][14]. Group 4: Future Implications - The recent agreement between China and the U.S. may provide temporary relief, but the underlying competition for technological supremacy remains unchanged, indicating that future disruptions are likely [15][17]. - Consumer choices in electronics can influence the global rare earth market, as purchasing products with stable supply chains indirectly supports China's dominance in the rare earth industry [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of rare earth export controls by China has raised significant concerns in Europe and the United States, while Russia is shifting its focus towards these strategic mineral resources, aiming to establish an integrated industry chain from extraction to application [1][4]. Group 1: Russia's Strategic Shift - The Russian government plans to invest 700 billion rubles (approximately 61.2 billion yuan) to establish an industrial cluster in Siberia, covering rare earths, rare metals, new materials research, processing, and application [3]. - The urgency of this initiative stems from Russia's recognition of the power of resource control, which has evolved into a matter of national survival rather than just trade [3][4]. - Russia's security council has emphasized the importance of rare earths for military, electronics, and energy storage sectors, elevating it to a national security priority [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Global Positioning - Beyond self-protection, Russia aims to leverage its rare earth industry for economic growth and international expansion, viewing it as a potential economic growth point amid sanctions and war [4]. - The rare earth industry is expected to drive the development of downstream sectors such as magnetic materials, catalysts, alloys, displays, and semiconductors, thus facilitating Russia's industrial transformation [4][5]. - Russia intends to offer alternative supply chain solutions to global southern countries, aiming to reduce China's market share and utilize rare earths as a geopolitical tool [4][10]. Group 3: Resource Availability and Challenges - Russia possesses significant rare earth resources, with proven reserves of approximately 28 million tons, ranking among the top five globally [5]. - However, Russia faces challenges in its incomplete industrial chain, requiring self-research for necessary equipment and technology, as well as addressing issues related to product purity and environmental control [5][6]. - Funding remains a critical challenge, with the government’s planned investment needing clarity on sources and timelines, compounded by the financial strain from sanctions and war [6][11]. Group 4: Long-term Development and Global Market Dynamics - The development of the rare earth industry is a long-term project, potentially taking years or even a decade to establish a complete industrial chain [8]. - The global rare earth market is undergoing a critical period of rule restructuring, where the ability to sustainably convert resources into products will determine market positions [10]. - Russia's plans, while ambitious, require careful execution to avoid pitfalls associated with rapid development, emphasizing the need for strategic planning and patience [11].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic value of rare earth elements is being highlighted due to China's export controls and policy upgrades, leading to a significant increase in stock prices and overall market performance in the rare earth sector [6][10][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - Shenghe Resources (600392.SH) saw its stock price rise by 5.04% to 26.26 yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 155.45% [6]. - The rare earth index (8841089.WI) has increased by 118.86% year-to-date, with five out of seven stocks in the sector doubling in value [6][10]. - On October 9, the rare earth sector surged by 7.97%, followed by a 9.49% increase on October 13, with several stocks recording over 110% gains [10][11]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's rare earth reserves account for approximately 48% of the global total, with a production capacity of about 27,000 tons, representing nearly 70% of global output [8][9]. - The recent export controls by China, which include restrictions on key technologies and production lines, have tightened global supply and increased the strategic importance of rare earths [9][13]. - The demand for rare earths is expected to grow significantly, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, with projections indicating a need for 3-5 kg of rare earth permanent magnets per electric vehicle [14][15]. Group 3: Price Trends - The price index for rare earths has been on an upward trend, with light rare earths like praseodymium and neodymium increasing from approximately 440,000 yuan/ton to 562,000 yuan/ton, a rise of about 27.7% [15]. - Heavy rare earths, such as dysprosium oxide, have seen even more dramatic increases, with prices soaring from around 830,000 yuan/ton to 2.6 million yuan/ton, marking a 212% increase [15]. - Recent announcements from companies like Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel have indicated continuous price increases for rare earth concentrates, reflecting ongoing supply constraints [17][19]. Group 4: Company Performance - In 2023, several rare earth companies are showing signs of recovery, with five out of seven companies reporting revenue growth in the first half of the year [21]. - Northern Rare Earth reported a revenue of 188.66 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a net profit increase of 45.24% [22]. - Shenghe Resources anticipates a net profit of 740 million to 820 million yuan for the first nine months of the year, representing a growth of 696.82% to 782.96% [23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the mid-term price center for rare earths is likely to rise due to tightening supply and increasing strategic value [26]. - Analysts suggest that the recent export control measures will likely lead to price increases, particularly for light rare earth products, while cautioning about potential overvaluation of stocks in the sector [25][27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][9] Core Insights - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a slight increase of 0.05% this week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.27 percentage points [5][11] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has slightly decreased to 95.79x, currently at 96.1% of its historical percentile [5][11] - The report indicates a downward trend in rare earth concentrate prices, with significant declines in various rare earth mineral prices [6][8][39] Market Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of 4%, a 3-month return of 33%, and a 12-month return of 117% [4] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 3%, 45%, and 136% respectively [4] Price Trends - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate prices fell by 13.89%, 12.9%, and 15.38% for different types of rare earth minerals [8][12] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 6.11%, while the metal price dropped by 6.63% [8][15] - Dysprosium oxide prices saw a slight increase of 0.62%, while terbium oxide prices declined by 0.57% [18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the supply side of rare earths has limited short-term growth, with stable output from major manufacturers and limited increases in scrap supply [39][40] - It is recommended to focus on upstream rare earth resource companies due to expected supply contraction and strategic value positioning [9][42] - Downstream magnetic material companies are also highlighted for potential profit recovery as rare earth prices are expected to rise [9][42]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has emerged as one of the strongest performing sectors in the market since 2025, with the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index leading 31 first-level sub-industries with a nearly 70% increase [1][3]. Group 1: Driving Factors Behind Sector Strength - The recent strength in the non-ferrous metal sector is attributed to multiple factors including macroeconomic easing, supply-demand dynamics, market sentiment, and sector rotation effects [13][12]. - Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a globally loose liquidity environment have weakened the dollar, enhancing the appeal of non-ferrous metals as a hedge against currency depreciation [13][12]. - Supply constraints coupled with rising demand from emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics have led to a tight supply-demand balance, driving prices higher [13][12]. - The valuation of the non-ferrous metal sector remains below historical averages, attracting capital inflows as other sectors face valuation pressures [13][12]. Group 2: Market Performance and Valuation Dynamics - The non-ferrous metal sector has experienced a "Davis Double Play" this year, where rising metal prices significantly boost corporate profit expectations while the sector's valuation was at historical lows, allowing for upward correction [15][12]. - The sector's performance is supported by a long-term reassessment of the global monetary system and the strategic value of non-ferrous metals in an uncertain global environment [16][12]. Group 3: Long-term Growth Potential - Compared to traditional cyclical sectors, the non-ferrous metal sector shows greater growth potential due to its alignment with high-end manufacturing demands, particularly in electronics, military, semiconductors, and renewable energy [17][12]. - The ongoing energy revolution is expected to create structural, long-term demand for metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, freeing them from traditional cyclical constraints [18][12]. Group 4: Strategic Value of Rare Earths - The recent tightening of rare earth export controls is expected to enhance China's competitive advantage in the global supply chain, solidifying its pricing power [22][12]. - The strategic value of rare earths is increasingly recognized, particularly in high-tech industries, which will support their long-term market performance [22][12]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The non-ferrous metal sector is viewed as having solid long-term investment value, driven by supply constraints and favorable valuation dynamics, although short-term volatility risks are acknowledged [19][12]. - Key signals to monitor include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, supply disruptions, domestic growth policies, and signs of stabilization in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [20][12].

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing fluctuations in stock performance, with significant movements in the ETF market and new regulatory measures enhancing the strategic value of rare earth elements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 17, 2025, the China Rare Earth Industry Index decreased by 0.08%, with stocks showing mixed results; Shengxin Lithium Energy led with a 6.22% increase, while Galaxy Magnetic Materials saw the largest decline [1]. - The rare earth ETF managed by Harvest (516150) is showing positive momentum, with a trading volume of 3.99 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.7% [2]. - The latest scale of the Harvest Rare Earth ETF reached 106.63 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and ranking first among comparable funds [2]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The Harvest Rare Earth ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past five days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.184 billion yuan, totaling 2.985 billion yuan [2]. - Over the past year, the net value of the Harvest Rare Earth ETF has increased by 96.96%, ranking 8th out of 3069 index equity funds, placing it in the top 0.26% [2]. - Since its inception, the ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 41.25% and an average monthly return of 10.78% during rising months [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth-related technologies highlight the strategic importance of rare earths [2]. - The release of four policy documents aims to strengthen the management of the rare earth industry, including stricter controls on processing equipment and raw materials [3]. - New regulations expand the scope of export controls to include additional rare earth elements and require export licenses for products containing Chinese-origin rare earth materials [3].