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稀土磁材行业周报:本周行业大幅调整,稀土及磁材价格整体平稳-20250921
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-09-21 12:03
Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10][46] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a significant decline of 8.06% this week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 7.62 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) decreased from 95.79x to 88.3x, currently at the 94.2% historical percentile [5][12] - Supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to slightly increase due to stable operations of separation enterprises and increased output from recycling companies, while demand remains stable with expectations of increased end-user consumption in October [7][45] - The market is anticipated to remain in a stalemate with overall rare earth prices stabilizing [7][45] Market Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of -5%, a 3-month return of 37%, and a 12-month return of 108% [4] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 1%, 55%, and 149% respectively [4] Price Trends - Prices for light rare earth concentrates have mostly rebounded, while medium and heavy rare earth prices remain weak [9][14] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.7% to 571,000 CNY/ton, and the metal price decreased by 0.43% to 700,000 CNY/ton [19][22] - The price of neodymium-iron-boron blanks saw a slight increase of 0.7% to 144.5 CNY/kg [41] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply is slightly increasing due to stable operations in the praseodymium and neodymium segment, while demand is supported by stable orders from major magnetic material manufacturers [7][45] - The demand from downstream sectors such as new energy vehicles is showing marginal decline, while industrial trends remain positive [7][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a cautious approach due to potential valuation adjustments from suppressed risk appetite, while focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and growth potential [10][46][47]
本周行业反弹,产业链价格延续回落
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-09-14 13:43
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry rebounded by 3.89% this week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.51 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) increased by 3.55 times to 95.79 times, currently at 96.3% of its historical percentile [5][12] - The supply of rare earths remains tight in the short term, with stable operations in upstream mineral separation enterprises, while waste separation enterprises are increasing output [41][42] - Demand from magnetic material companies is stable, with high operating rates among large manufacturers and a gradual release of new demand [41][42] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of gradual price rebounds for rare earths as low-priced spot supplies decrease [41][42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a relative return of 16% over one month, 41% over three months, and 129% over twelve months [4] - Absolute returns were 25% over one month, 57% over three months, and 171% over twelve months [4] Price Trends - This week, the prices of rare earth concentrates significantly declined, with mixed carbonate rare earth ore prices dropping by 10% [9][14] - Praseodymium and neodymium prices fell initially but rebounded, while dysprosium prices stabilized after a decline [6][9] - The price of neodymium-iron-boron blanks fell by 2.71% for N35 and 1.84% for H35 [9][37] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a mixed trend, with some upstream mineral separation enterprises experiencing slight operational declines due to raw material constraints, while waste separation enterprises are increasing output [41][42] - Demand remains strong, supported by stable orders from large manufacturers and an increase in export quantities [41][42] Valuation and Performance Outlook - Current absolute and relative historical valuation levels are supported by loose liquidity and expectations of price increases in the industry chain [42] - The report suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply expectations and easing export controls [10][42] - Long-term, as rare earth prices gradually recover, downstream magnetic material companies are expected to see continued profit recovery [10][43]
本周轻稀土价格回落,中重稀土价格坚挺回升
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-09-07 12:10
Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10][44] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a decline of 10.58% this week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 9.77 percentage points. The industry valuation (TTM P/E) decreased by 12.95 to 92.24x, currently at 95.8% of its historical percentile [5][12] - Light rare earth prices continued to decline, while medium and heavy rare earth prices remained strong. Prices for praseodymium and neodymium continued to fall, while dysprosium and terbium prices increased. The price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron blanks rose initially and then stabilized [6][9][39] - Supply tightness in the rare earth sector persists, with expectations of continued supply contraction due to total quantity control measures and restrictions on imports from Myanmar and the U.S. Demand is gradually being released, with good order volumes for magnetic material companies in August and September [10][43] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a relative return of 15% over one month, 49% over three months, and 119% over twelve months. Absolute returns were 24%, 64%, and 156% respectively [4] Price Trends - Light rare earth ore prices fell by 2.44% to 40,000 CNY/ton, while medium and heavy rare earth ore prices showed resilience, with medium yttrium-rich europium ore prices rising by 1.83% to 223,000 CNY/ton [9][14] - Praseodymium and neodymium prices fell by 2.93% and 2.29% respectively, while dysprosium and terbium prices increased by 1.24% and 3.61% respectively [19][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies due to expectations of supply contraction and potential demand increases from relaxed export controls. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream magnetic material companies with good customer structures and full capacity utilization, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [10][44][45]
湘财证券晨会纪要-20250905
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-09-04 23:31
Industry Overview - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a significant increase of 15.32% last week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 12.61 percentage points [3] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E ratio) increased by 5.29 times to 105.19 times, currently at the 98th percentile of its historical range [3] Price Trends - Last week, the prices of rare earth concentrates generally declined, with specific decreases of 2.38%, 5.41%, and 6.25% for various domestic rare earth mines [4] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide fell by 4.02%, while the metal price decreased by 2.24% [4] - Dysprosium prices experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, and terbium prices remained weak due to insufficient terminal demand [4] - The price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron remained stable, with H35 grade increasing by 1.42% [6] Investment Recommendations - The supply of rare earths is expected to remain tight, with policies strengthening control over the entire industry chain, leading to an increase in the short-term supply gap for praseodymium-neodymium [7] - Demand is anticipated to improve, particularly in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and wind power, with major magnetic material manufacturers operating at full capacity [7] - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting that upstream rare earth resource companies may benefit from rising prices [8] Mechanical Industry Insights - The company reported a slight revenue increase of 1.7% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 1.29 billion yuan [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27.0%, indicating pressure on profitability [10] - The company is focusing on precision reducer business, which is expected to grow due to the demand in intelligent manufacturing and automation [13] Chemical Industry Outlook - The supply-demand dynamics for spandex are expected to improve as outdated production capacities exit the market and new capacities face delays [17] - The demand for spandex is projected to grow with consumption upgrades, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance in the future [19]
稀土永磁概念股中科磁业周涨逾63%丨透视一周牛熊股
Market Performance - The three major stock indices showed mixed performance from June 9 to June 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.25% to close at 3377.00 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.60% to 10122.11 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.22% to 20343.82 points [2] - Approximately 34% of stocks experienced gains during the week, with 114 stocks rising over 15% and 16 stocks falling over 15% [2] Top Gainers and Losers - The top-performing stock was Zhongke Magnetic (301141.SZ), which saw a price increase of 63.61%, followed by Beikong Technology (600980.SH) with a 61.09% rise [3] - The top ten stocks on the bull list all had cumulative gains exceeding 33% [3] Sector Analysis - Zhongke Magnetic operates in the rare earth permanent magnet sector, focusing on the research, production, and sales of permanent magnetic materials [4] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw a nearly 5% increase in the past week, with Zhongke Magnetic and other top gainers being part of this sector [4] Stock Price Movements - Zhongke Magnetic's stock price reached a historical high of 68.13 yuan after a 3.20% increase on June 12, with an intraday peak of 70.88 yuan [4] - The company announced that its stock price had deviated significantly, with a cumulative increase of over 30% in two consecutive trading days, but confirmed that its operational status remained normal [5] Rare Earth Market Dynamics - Overseas rare earth metal prices have surged, with some varieties like dysprosium and terbium increasing over 200% in the past two months [5] - The demand for rare earths is strong in military, aerospace, new materials, and new energy sectors, with significant reliance on China's supply for global automotive needs [5] Supply Constraints - The supply of rare earths is tightening, with expectations of a 4% year-on-year increase in light rare earth mining to 261,000 tons, while heavy rare earth mining remains flat at 19,000 tons [6] - Import volumes from countries like Myanmar and the U.S. have decreased, indicating a supply gap that is not being fully compensated by other sources [6] Price Outlook - Multiple institutions predict an upward trend in rare earth prices due to aggressive restocking behavior in overseas markets and the narrowing price gap between domestic and international markets [7] - Short to medium-term demand for rare earths is expected to rise significantly, particularly in the third and fourth quarters, driven by increased exports of magnetic materials [7] Company Performance - Renle (002336.SZ) has seen a drastic decline, with a drop of 85.09%, leading the bear market list, and is now in a delisting process due to negative net assets for two consecutive years [11][12] - The company, once a prominent retail chain, has seen its market value fall below 300 million yuan as it enters a delisting adjustment period [12]