Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience short - term wide - range adjustments, with attention on the MA10 support and a price range of 420,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton [3]. - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue rising in Q1. The tin ore supply shortage has shown signs of easing. However, smelting production is currently limited due to low raw material inventories, year - end maintenance, and losses for most enterprises, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Chinese New Year. The increase in Indonesian tin exports has opened the import window and increased import pressure [3]. - On the demand side, the strong development prospects of the AI field will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have risen again, and downstream buyers purchase on price dips. Inventories are stable, with a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventories have increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [3]. - Technically, the price has risen while the position has decreased, and attention should be paid to the battle at the 440,000 - yuan mark [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin is 451,160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25,820 yuan/ton. The closing price of the February - March contract for Shanghai Tin is - 940 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 560 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 54,232 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,373 US dollars/ton. The position of the main Shanghai Tin contract is 55,071 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 162 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai Tin is - 4,150 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 823 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 7,065 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 130 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,720 tons (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 171 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 230 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 115 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 8,553 tons (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 71 tons [3]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 428,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,450 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 426,170 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,030 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 22,760 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 32,270 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 243 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2 US dollars/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.76 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.25 million tons. The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 414,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,450 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 418,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,450 yuan/ton [3]. - The average processing fee for 60% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 270,070 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4,260 yuan/ton. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.5287 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.1387 million tons [3]. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons [3]. Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China is willing to manage differences and promote cooperation with the US and will introduce policies and measures to expand inbound consumption [3]. - Zou Lan, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, announced support for increasing the scale of RMB business fund arrangements in Hong Kong from 100 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan [3]. - Reports indicate that the probability of a new US government shutdown is nearly 80% according to prediction markets [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustment and break below the MA10 support [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 334,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,960 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is down 720 yuan with a 590 - yuan decrease in the ring - comparison [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 42,490 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 345 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 50,161 lots, a decrease of 2,115 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 62 lots, an increase of 2,415 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 4,895 tons, an increase of 220 tons [3] - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 8,477 tons (weekly), and the warehouse receipt of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 7,905 tons (daily), a decrease of 64 tons [3] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME tin is 190 tons, an increase of 75 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 344,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 3,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 130 US dollars/ton, an increase of 65 US dollars [3] 上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons (monthly), an increase of 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 331,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 335,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,520 yuan [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons (monthly), an increase of 14.47 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons [3] 行业消息 - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, and support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones [3] - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, with a slight increase in the first 11 months, and the profit growth rate of high - tech manufacturing accelerated. The decline in industrial production and profit margins is the main reason for the narrowing of the profit growth rate [3] 观点总结 - On the macro - level, the Ministry of Finance will continue the proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [3] - On the fundamental level, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of tin ore remains low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season provide some supply increments, the overall import volume of tin ore is still low. The raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the production of refined tin is expected to be restricted. Indonesia's export volume increased in November, but the domestic import of tin is in a loss state, and the import volume is expected to remain low. The market's willingness to purchase tin has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME inventory has increased significantly [3] - On the technical level, the trading volume has increased, showing an upper - shadow negative line, with increased divergence between bulls and bears, and facing key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomically, the US added more non - farm jobs than expected in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high, not significantly changing expectations of Fed rate cuts [3] - Fundamentally, on the supply side, domestic tin ore imports are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, but overall imports are still low. On the smelting side, raw materials are scarce, and most enterprises' raw material inventories are low, with production expected to be restricted. In terms of imports, Indonesia's exports increased in November, but domestic imports remain unprofitable, and import volumes are expected to stay low. On the demand side, tin prices have recently adjusted, market trading has warmed up, and LME inventories have increased significantly [3] - Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is expected that Shanghai tin will adjust at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 328,600 yuan/ton, up 7,980 yuan; the closing price of the January - February contract is down 740 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 40,955 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 32,130 lots, down 155 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 498 lots, down 234 lots. LME tin total inventory is 3,815 tons, up 20 tons, and the LME tin cancelled warrants are 155 tons, down 5 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,391 tons, up 526 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt is 7,497 tons, up 34 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 325,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 325,580 yuan/ton, up 7,040 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 120 yuan/ton, up 3,170 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 56 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 313,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 317,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 208,930 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons, up 14.47 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - US employment continues to cool: non - farm payrolls rebounded slightly in November, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high, and traders expect two rate cuts next year. The "New Fed News Agency" said that the non - farm data is unlikely to significantly change the Fed's judgment on whether to cut rates again. The US Markit Composite PMI in December hit a six - month low, with a sharp rise in price indicators and weak employment indicators. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in December contracted at an accelerated pace, with Germany hitting a 10 - month low and France and Italy back in the expansion range. The Central Financial Office said that investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control increments and revitalize stocks [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The actual resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to be slower than market expectations, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, with supply expected to start being released in late June. The processing fees for tin ore were further reduced at the beginning of June. - In the smelting sector, tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan are facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, with low raw material inventories. In Jiangxi, the scrap recycling system is under pressure, the risk of production capacity withdrawal has increased, and the operating rate remains at a low level. - On the demand side, due to the previous decline in tin prices and the reluctance of holders to sell, the purchasing sentiment of downstream and end - user enterprises has increased, leading to an obvious decline in social inventories. - Technically, the position reduction has rebounded from a low level, and attention should be paid to the resistance of MA60. Short - term investors are advised to go long with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 263,740 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the closing price of the July - August contract was 130 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. - The price of LME 3 - month tin was 32,255 US dollars/ton, down 105 US dollars. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 25,485 lots, down 492 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was 4,296 lots, up 104 lots. - The total inventory of LME tin was 2,440 tons, down 5 tons; the canceled warrants of LME tin were 630 tons, up 25 tons. - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,372 tons (weekly), down 735 tons; the warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,904 tons, down 116 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin was 263,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market was 263,630 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 50 US dollars/ton, up 59.1 US dollars. - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 252,400 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan; the processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. - The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 256,400 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan; the processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 171,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - International: In May, the non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 139,000, exceeding the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. Some Fed officials said that there may be an interest rate cut later this year, and the possibility of a continuous inflation outbreak due to the trade war is 50%. - Domestic: In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, indicating weak domestic demand. The wholesale volume of passenger cars by domestic manufacturers in May reached a record high for the month, with a year - on - year increase of 12.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [3].