| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 272730 | -1230 10月-11月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -300 | -110 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 34680 | -275 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 24273 | -1844 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -2149 | -369 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2645 | 25 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7897 | 124 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 160 | -25 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 7310 | -92 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 272400 | -900 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 272760 | -1180 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -330 | 330 LME锡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the market will mainly experience volatile adjustments. It suggests either waiting and observing or cautiously holding previous long - positions, with a focus on the 270,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton range [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin was 271,790 yuan/ton, up 2,370 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai Tin was down 250 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price was 34,130 US dollars/ton, up 285 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 33,309 lots, up 23,394 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin was - 1,252 lots, up 417 lots; LME tin total inventory was 1,780 tons, down 5 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,491 tons, down 301 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 155 tons, up 55 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin was 7,163 tons, up 11 tons; the SMM1 tin spot price was 272,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 273,080 yuan/ton, up 2,670 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 210 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 173 US dollars/ton, up 123 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 260,000 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 264,000 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 176,290 yuan/ton, up 960 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump's "three - step plan" to control the Federal Reserve is advancing. If he successfully fires Lisa Cook, he may get four seats on the seven - member board of governors. The State Council's "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan focuses on AI chip development and software ecosystem cultivation, and promotes the development of intelligent vehicles and other terminals [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual production will not start until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. In July, the increase in smelting output was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Most downstream and end - user enterprises are taking a wait - and - see attitude, using previous inventories for production and only making a certain amount of rigid demand purchases when prices fall slightly. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has rebounded. Technically, the long - position is stronger with increased positions, and the price has reached above 270,000 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The market is in the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recent tin price fluctuations have curbed market purchasing willingness. Downstream buyers mainly adopt the strategies of "replenishing inventory based on rigid demand and taking delivery with post - pricing", resulting in few high - price transactions. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has increased slightly. Technically, the position has declined, and both long and short positions are cautious. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see, with an expected range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for the price to fluctuate and adjust [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 266,490 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 33,215 US dollars/ton, up 530 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai Tin is - 560 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 27,212 lots, down 307 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 302 lots, down 109 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,950 tons, up 5 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 535 tons, down 45 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 7,293 tons, up 7 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,800 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 265,960 yuan/ton, up 1,890 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 690 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 0.5 US dollars/ton, up 15.5 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly production of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,850 yuan/ton, up 640 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern. Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The actual resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to be slower than market expectations, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, with supply expected to start being released in late June. The processing fees for tin ore were further reduced at the beginning of June. - In the smelting sector, tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan are facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, with low raw material inventories. In Jiangxi, the scrap recycling system is under pressure, the risk of production capacity withdrawal has increased, and the operating rate remains at a low level. - On the demand side, due to the previous decline in tin prices and the reluctance of holders to sell, the purchasing sentiment of downstream and end - user enterprises has increased, leading to an obvious decline in social inventories. - Technically, the position reduction has rebounded from a low level, and attention should be paid to the resistance of MA60. Short - term investors are advised to go long with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 263,740 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the closing price of the July - August contract was 130 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. - The price of LME 3 - month tin was 32,255 US dollars/ton, down 105 US dollars. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 25,485 lots, down 492 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was 4,296 lots, up 104 lots. - The total inventory of LME tin was 2,440 tons, down 5 tons; the canceled warrants of LME tin were 630 tons, up 25 tons. - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,372 tons (weekly), down 735 tons; the warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,904 tons, down 116 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin was 263,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market was 263,630 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 50 US dollars/ton, up 59.1 US dollars. - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 252,400 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan; the processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. - The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 256,400 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan; the processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 171,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - International: In May, the non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 139,000, exceeding the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. Some Fed officials said that there may be an interest rate cut later this year, and the possibility of a continuous inflation outbreak due to the trade war is 50%. - Domestic: In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, indicating weak domestic demand. The wholesale volume of passenger cars by domestic manufacturers in May reached a record high for the month, with a year - on - year increase of 12.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [3].