| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-12-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 328600 | 7980 1月-2月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -740 | -100 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 40955 | -140 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 32130 | -155 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -498 | -234 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 3815 | 20 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7391 | 526 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 155 | -5 | | 现货市场 | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 7497 | 34 | | | | | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 325800 | 5300 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 325580 | 7040 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report expects the Shanghai tin market to undergo oscillatory adjustments and suggests paying attention to the MA10 support. On the macro - front, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. On the fundamental side, the supply of domestic tin ore imports remains tight, the production of refined tin is expected to be limited, and the demand from downstream enterprises for high - priced goods is extremely limited. Technically, the position volume has decreased, the price has corrected, the divergence between long and short positions has increased, and it has fallen below the MA5 support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 312,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,880 yuan; the closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai tin has a change of - 590 yuan with an increase of 20 yuan. LME 3 - month tin is at 39,800 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 375 US dollars. The main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 43,424 lots, a decrease of 5,047 lots. The net holding of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 331 lots, an increase of 89 lots. LME tin total inventory is 3,075 tons, a decrease of 10 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,865 tons, an increase of 506 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 7,237 tons, a decrease of 29 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 316,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 315,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 46 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 24 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import quantity of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 302,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 306,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton with no change; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import quantity of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 202,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 720 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.2454 million tons, an increase of 136,100 tons; the monthly export quantity of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026. It will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In November, China's passenger car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% to 2.24 million vehicles. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 58.9% but the growth rate was only 4.2%, while exports increased by 52.4% [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term tin prices are expected to be strong at high levels. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 286,560 yuan/ton, up 3,050 yuan; the closing price of the December - January contract for Shanghai tin is - 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,820 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 34,257 lots, up 4,167 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 671 lots, up 423 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,035 tons, up 60 tons. The SHFE inventory of tin is 5,992 tons, up 73 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 5,694 tons, down 109 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,800 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 286,370 yuan/ton, up 2,160 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 760 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan, and the processing fee is 0.87 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 275,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin concentrates by Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, up 1,020 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 197,600 tons, up 31,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In China, in October, due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and the influence of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year with the increase for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased 1% year - on - year. The retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in China in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, while the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3]. 3.7 View Summary - The first batch of restarted mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are in the production ramp - up period. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is limited. The supply from Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season. The export of refined tin from Indonesia is planned to be accelerated in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains low; the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate is low, limiting the production of refined tin. In the demand side, the tin price has been oscillating recently. The downstream in the spot market mainly purchases at low prices, mostly for small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The market has fully priced in the expectation of two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining time of this year. Fundamentally, the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung by the Indonesian President may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import of tin ore decreased in September, and the production of tin ore in Myanmar is slowly recovering, while production in Africa and Australia has declined more than expected. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, most downstream and end - user enterprises are still waiting and only making small - quantity purchases for刚需, with low restocking enthusiasm. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is heating up, and attention should be paid to the previous high resistance. It is recommended to adopt a bullish strategy and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 286,720 yuan/ton, up 2,420 yuan; the closing price of the November - December contract was down 570 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 35,650 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 45,084 lots, up 7,008 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 2,070 lots, down 474 lots. The total LME tin inventory was 2,750 tons, up 30 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 5,766 tons (weekly), up 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant was 5,652 tons, up 85 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 283,500 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 283,810 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was - 3,220 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 143 US dollars/ton, up 43 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 0.87 million tons (monthly), down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 269,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 273,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The processing fee of 40% and 60% tin concentrate by Antaike was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 183,800 yuan/ton, up 1,010 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.1093 million tons (monthly), up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 0.1976 million tons, up 0.031 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The two sides had in - depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues and reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%, and the core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than expected [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro - face: Most Fed officials think further monetary easing this year may be appropriate, while a few might have supported no rate - cut in September. The US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, with expected rate cuts of 25 basis points twice by the end of this year and another 50 basis points in 2026 [3]. - Fundamental - face: In Indonesia, President Prabowo ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines, which may intensify the tight supply of tin ore. Tin ore imports from Myanmar have rebounded, and short - term supply shows improvement signs, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. In the smelting sector, raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream made small pre - holiday stockpiling, domestic inventory decreased, but high tin prices may suppress procurement demand. LME inventory also declined, and the spot premium remained stable. It is recommended to wait and see or hold previous long positions cautiously [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 287,090 yuan/ton, with a change of 12,020. The closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is 680 yuan/ton, with a change of 760. LME 3 - month tin is at 36,250 dollars/ton, down 120. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 34,948 lots, up 6,204. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 987 lots, up 388. LME tin total inventory is 2,505 tons, up 40. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,429 tons, down 130. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 5,851 tons, up 10 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 284,200 yuan/ton, up 7,000. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 283,960 yuan/ton, up 5,500. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 2,890 yuan/ton, down 5,020. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 65.01 dollars/ton, down 73.01 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 272,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 276,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 183,870 yuan/ton, up 4,080. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that most officials are in favor of further rate cuts this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy relaxation is appropriate for the rest of the year, and inflation is expected to stay high in the short - term and then gradually fall to 2%. - China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion. - S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, and the delay in key economic data release will affect the Fed's monetary policy. Each week of shutdown may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach or buying on dips, with attention on the 271,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton range. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, there is a divergence in long - short trading, and the 275,000 resistance level should be watched. The domestic inventory has decreased due to some pre - holiday stockpiling, while LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium is at a low level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 272,410 yuan/ton, down 1,660 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract is down 500 yuan, with a 30 - yuan decline. The LME 3 - month tin price is 34,415 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 26,590 lots, down 2,701 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 890 lots, down 474 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2,775 tons, up 35 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 6,559 tons, down 429 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 430 tons, up 45 tons [3] 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 5,950 tons, down 127 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 271,400 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 271,110 yuan/ton, down 2,570 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 370 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan, and the LME tin spread (0 - 3) is - 50 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 1.03 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates' processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 259,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 263,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 176,170 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3] Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and focus on implementing existing policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council calls on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. China's industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. Trump's new chip policy requires a 1:1 ratio of domestic production to imports for producers, with tariffs imposed if not met. The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month as expected, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [3] Viewpoint Summary - Although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. In July, the increase in production was due to multiple factors such as some enterprises' resumption of production and the clearance of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream enterprises generally maintain rigid procurement due to cost pressure, with a low willingness to actively stockpile. Due to the approaching National Day holiday, some enterprises have made small - scale pre - holiday stockpiling, resulting in a decline in domestic inventory and a spot premium of 300 yuan/ton, while the LME inventory has increased and the spot premium is at a low level [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic data in China shows characteristics of "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", leading to an increased expectation of a new round of policy easing. The actual tin ore output in Myanmar's Wa State will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. The demand from downstream processing enterprises is in the recovery period of the peak season, but the order recovery is slow. The spot market is expected to remain quiet, with domestic inventory increasing and LME inventory rising while the spot premium drops significantly. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, there is a divergence in long - short trading, and attention should be paid to the MA5 support. It is recommended to either wait and see or conduct range trading [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 272,730 yuan/ton, down 1,230 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is down 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 34,680 dollars/ton, down 275 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 24,273 lots, down 1,844 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,149 lots, down 369 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2,645 tons, up 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,897 tons, up 124 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 160 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 7,310 tons, down 92 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,760 yuan/ton, down 1,180 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 330 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 132 dollars/ton, down 97.02 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 261,300 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 265,300 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 176,650 yuan/ton, down 1,140 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons. The year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail in August slowed to 3.4%, and the growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment retail slowed to 14.3%. The year - on - year increase in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in August was 5.2%, with good growth in the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year [3] 3.6 Industry News - China's economic data in August shows "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", increasing the expectation of a new round of policy easing. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on the 16th (Eastern Time). Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, but actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels [3] 3.7 Key Points to Note - There is no news today [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the market will mainly experience volatile adjustments. It suggests either waiting and observing or cautiously holding previous long - positions, with a focus on the 270,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton range [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin was 271,790 yuan/ton, up 2,370 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai Tin was down 250 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price was 34,130 US dollars/ton, up 285 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 33,309 lots, up 23,394 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin was - 1,252 lots, up 417 lots; LME tin total inventory was 1,780 tons, down 5 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,491 tons, down 301 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 155 tons, up 55 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin was 7,163 tons, up 11 tons; the SMM1 tin spot price was 272,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 273,080 yuan/ton, up 2,670 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 210 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 173 US dollars/ton, up 123 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 260,000 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 264,000 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 176,290 yuan/ton, up 960 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump's "three - step plan" to control the Federal Reserve is advancing. If he successfully fires Lisa Cook, he may get four seats on the seven - member board of governors. The State Council's "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan focuses on AI chip development and software ecosystem cultivation, and promotes the development of intelligent vehicles and other terminals [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual production will not start until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. In July, the increase in smelting output was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Most downstream and end - user enterprises are taking a wait - and - see attitude, using previous inventories for production and only making a certain amount of rigid demand purchases when prices fall slightly. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has rebounded. Technically, the long - position is stronger with increased positions, and the price has reached above 270,000 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The market is in the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recent tin price fluctuations have curbed market purchasing willingness. Downstream buyers mainly adopt the strategies of "replenishing inventory based on rigid demand and taking delivery with post - pricing", resulting in few high - price transactions. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has increased slightly. Technically, the position has declined, and both long and short positions are cautious. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see, with an expected range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for the price to fluctuate and adjust [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 266,490 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 33,215 US dollars/ton, up 530 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai Tin is - 560 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 27,212 lots, down 307 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 302 lots, down 109 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,950 tons, up 5 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 535 tons, down 45 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 7,293 tons, up 7 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,800 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 265,960 yuan/ton, up 1,890 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 690 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 0.5 US dollars/ton, up 15.5 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly production of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,850 yuan/ton, up 640 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern. Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The actual resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to be slower than market expectations, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, with supply expected to start being released in late June. The processing fees for tin ore were further reduced at the beginning of June. - In the smelting sector, tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan are facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, with low raw material inventories. In Jiangxi, the scrap recycling system is under pressure, the risk of production capacity withdrawal has increased, and the operating rate remains at a low level. - On the demand side, due to the previous decline in tin prices and the reluctance of holders to sell, the purchasing sentiment of downstream and end - user enterprises has increased, leading to an obvious decline in social inventories. - Technically, the position reduction has rebounded from a low level, and attention should be paid to the resistance of MA60. Short - term investors are advised to go long with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 263,740 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the closing price of the July - August contract was 130 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. - The price of LME 3 - month tin was 32,255 US dollars/ton, down 105 US dollars. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 25,485 lots, down 492 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was 4,296 lots, up 104 lots. - The total inventory of LME tin was 2,440 tons, down 5 tons; the canceled warrants of LME tin were 630 tons, up 25 tons. - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,372 tons (weekly), down 735 tons; the warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,904 tons, down 116 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin was 263,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market was 263,630 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 50 US dollars/ton, up 59.1 US dollars. - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 252,400 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan; the processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. - The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 256,400 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan; the processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 171,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - International: In May, the non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 139,000, exceeding the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. Some Fed officials said that there may be an interest rate cut later this year, and the possibility of a continuous inflation outbreak due to the trade war is 50%. - Domestic: In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, indicating weak domestic demand. The wholesale volume of passenger cars by domestic manufacturers in May reached a record high for the month, with a year - on - year increase of 12.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [3].