| | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 443800 | -7360 3月-4月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -490 | 160 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 54878 | 646 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 52024 | -3047 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -7628 | -3478 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 7085 | 20 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 9720 | 171 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 225 | -5 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 8657 | 104 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 436600 | 8200 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 433700 | 7530 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -22760 | -3227 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience short - term wide - range adjustments, with attention on the MA10 support and a price range of 420,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton [3]. - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue rising in Q1. The tin ore supply shortage has shown signs of easing. However, smelting production is currently limited due to low raw material inventories, year - end maintenance, and losses for most enterprises, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Chinese New Year. The increase in Indonesian tin exports has opened the import window and increased import pressure [3]. - On the demand side, the strong development prospects of the AI field will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have risen again, and downstream buyers purchase on price dips. Inventories are stable, with a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventories have increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [3]. - Technically, the price has risen while the position has decreased, and attention should be paid to the battle at the 440,000 - yuan mark [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin is 451,160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25,820 yuan/ton. The closing price of the February - March contract for Shanghai Tin is - 940 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 560 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 54,232 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,373 US dollars/ton. The position of the main Shanghai Tin contract is 55,071 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 162 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai Tin is - 4,150 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 823 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 7,065 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 130 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,720 tons (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 171 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 230 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 115 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 8,553 tons (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 71 tons [3]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 428,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,450 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 426,170 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,030 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 22,760 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 32,270 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 243 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2 US dollars/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.76 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.25 million tons. The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 414,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,450 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 418,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,450 yuan/ton [3]. - The average processing fee for 60% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 270,070 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4,260 yuan/ton. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.5287 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.1387 million tons [3]. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons [3]. Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China is willing to manage differences and promote cooperation with the US and will introduce policies and measures to expand inbound consumption [3]. - Zou Lan, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, announced support for increasing the scale of RMB business fund arrangements in Hong Kong from 100 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan [3]. - Reports indicate that the probability of a new US government shutdown is nearly 80% according to prediction markets [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustment and break below the MA10 support [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 334,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,960 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is down 720 yuan with a 590 - yuan decrease in the ring - comparison [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 42,490 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 345 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 50,161 lots, a decrease of 2,115 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 62 lots, an increase of 2,415 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 4,895 tons, an increase of 220 tons [3] - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 8,477 tons (weekly), and the warehouse receipt of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 7,905 tons (daily), a decrease of 64 tons [3] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME tin is 190 tons, an increase of 75 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 344,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 3,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 130 US dollars/ton, an increase of 65 US dollars [3] 上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons (monthly), an increase of 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 331,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 335,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,520 yuan [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons (monthly), an increase of 14.47 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons [3] 行业消息 - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, and support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones [3] - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, with a slight increase in the first 11 months, and the profit growth rate of high - tech manufacturing accelerated. The decline in industrial production and profit margins is the main reason for the narrowing of the profit growth rate [3] 观点总结 - On the macro - level, the Ministry of Finance will continue the proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [3] - On the fundamental level, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of tin ore remains low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season provide some supply increments, the overall import volume of tin ore is still low. The raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the production of refined tin is expected to be restricted. Indonesia's export volume increased in November, but the domestic import of tin is in a loss state, and the import volume is expected to remain low. The market's willingness to purchase tin has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME inventory has increased significantly [3] - On the technical level, the trading volume has increased, showing an upper - shadow negative line, with increased divergence between bulls and bears, and facing key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, facing pressure at the upper edge of the upward channel at the 34 position. It also suggests paying attention to the support of the lower MA5 [3]. - On the macro front, there are differing views on the Fed's interest - rate policy, with one view stating that not continuing to cut interest rates next year may lead to a recession, while another view is that there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months. On the fundamental side, the domestic supply of tin ore imports remains relatively tight, and the smelting of refined tin is expected to be restricted. Although Indonesia's export volume increased in November, domestic tin imports are expected to remain at a low level. The demand side shows a dull purchasing atmosphere, and the technical side shows a strong long - position sentiment but faces resistance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 344,750 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,310 yuan/ton. The closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai tin is - 1,040 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 220 yuan/ton [3]. - LME3 - month tin is at 42,730 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 497 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 61,161 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 31,914 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 2,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,452 lots. LME tin's total inventory is 4,625 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3]. - The inventory of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,095 tons (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 704 tons. LME tin's cancelled warrants are 115 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipts of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 8,340 tons (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 655 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 339,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 339,420 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,780 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 5,940 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,560 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 25.01 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36.01 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 327,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 yuan/ton [3]. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 331,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 yuan/ton [3]. - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 217,930 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 14.47 million tons [3]. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.5 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. In December, the over - 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [3]. - Trump - appointed Fed理事Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there will be a risk of recession, but he also believes that there will be no short - term economic recession. Rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates. Another Fed voter with a hawkish stance said there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months and that the November CPI is underestimated [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomically, the US added more non - farm jobs than expected in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high, not significantly changing expectations of Fed rate cuts [3] - Fundamentally, on the supply side, domestic tin ore imports are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, but overall imports are still low. On the smelting side, raw materials are scarce, and most enterprises' raw material inventories are low, with production expected to be restricted. In terms of imports, Indonesia's exports increased in November, but domestic imports remain unprofitable, and import volumes are expected to stay low. On the demand side, tin prices have recently adjusted, market trading has warmed up, and LME inventories have increased significantly [3] - Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is expected that Shanghai tin will adjust at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 328,600 yuan/ton, up 7,980 yuan; the closing price of the January - February contract is down 740 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 40,955 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 32,130 lots, down 155 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 498 lots, down 234 lots. LME tin total inventory is 3,815 tons, up 20 tons, and the LME tin cancelled warrants are 155 tons, down 5 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,391 tons, up 526 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt is 7,497 tons, up 34 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 325,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 325,580 yuan/ton, up 7,040 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 120 yuan/ton, up 3,170 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 56 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 313,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 317,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 208,930 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons, up 14.47 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - US employment continues to cool: non - farm payrolls rebounded slightly in November, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high, and traders expect two rate cuts next year. The "New Fed News Agency" said that the non - farm data is unlikely to significantly change the Fed's judgment on whether to cut rates again. The US Markit Composite PMI in December hit a six - month low, with a sharp rise in price indicators and weak employment indicators. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in December contracted at an accelerated pace, with Germany hitting a 10 - month low and France and Italy back in the expansion range. The Central Financial Office said that investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control increments and revitalize stocks [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report expects the Shanghai tin market to undergo oscillatory adjustments and suggests paying attention to the MA10 support. On the macro - front, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. On the fundamental side, the supply of domestic tin ore imports remains tight, the production of refined tin is expected to be limited, and the demand from downstream enterprises for high - priced goods is extremely limited. Technically, the position volume has decreased, the price has corrected, the divergence between long and short positions has increased, and it has fallen below the MA5 support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 312,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,880 yuan; the closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai tin has a change of - 590 yuan with an increase of 20 yuan. LME 3 - month tin is at 39,800 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 375 US dollars. The main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 43,424 lots, a decrease of 5,047 lots. The net holding of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 331 lots, an increase of 89 lots. LME tin total inventory is 3,075 tons, a decrease of 10 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,865 tons, an increase of 506 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 7,237 tons, a decrease of 29 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 316,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 315,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 46 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 24 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import quantity of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 302,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 306,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton with no change; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import quantity of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 202,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 720 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.2454 million tons, an increase of 136,100 tons; the monthly export quantity of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026. It will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In November, China's passenger car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% to 2.24 million vehicles. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 58.9% but the growth rate was only 4.2%, while exports increased by 52.4% [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term tin prices are expected to be strong at high levels. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 286,560 yuan/ton, up 3,050 yuan; the closing price of the December - January contract for Shanghai tin is - 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,820 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 34,257 lots, up 4,167 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 671 lots, up 423 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,035 tons, up 60 tons. The SHFE inventory of tin is 5,992 tons, up 73 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 5,694 tons, down 109 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,800 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 286,370 yuan/ton, up 2,160 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 760 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan, and the processing fee is 0.87 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 275,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin concentrates by Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, up 1,020 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 197,600 tons, up 31,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In China, in October, due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and the influence of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year with the increase for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased 1% year - on - year. The retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in China in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, while the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3]. 3.7 View Summary - The first batch of restarted mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are in the production ramp - up period. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is limited. The supply from Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season. The export of refined tin from Indonesia is planned to be accelerated in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains low; the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate is low, limiting the production of refined tin. In the demand side, the tin price has been oscillating recently. The downstream in the spot market mainly purchases at low prices, mostly for small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The market has fully priced in the expectation of two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining time of this year. Fundamentally, the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung by the Indonesian President may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import of tin ore decreased in September, and the production of tin ore in Myanmar is slowly recovering, while production in Africa and Australia has declined more than expected. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, most downstream and end - user enterprises are still waiting and only making small - quantity purchases for刚需, with low restocking enthusiasm. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is heating up, and attention should be paid to the previous high resistance. It is recommended to adopt a bullish strategy and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 286,720 yuan/ton, up 2,420 yuan; the closing price of the November - December contract was down 570 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 35,650 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 45,084 lots, up 7,008 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 2,070 lots, down 474 lots. The total LME tin inventory was 2,750 tons, up 30 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 5,766 tons (weekly), up 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant was 5,652 tons, up 85 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 283,500 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 283,810 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was - 3,220 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 143 US dollars/ton, up 43 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 0.87 million tons (monthly), down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 269,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 273,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The processing fee of 40% and 60% tin concentrate by Antaike was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 183,800 yuan/ton, up 1,010 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.1093 million tons (monthly), up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 0.1976 million tons, up 0.031 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The two sides had in - depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues and reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%, and the core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than expected [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro - face: Most Fed officials think further monetary easing this year may be appropriate, while a few might have supported no rate - cut in September. The US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, with expected rate cuts of 25 basis points twice by the end of this year and another 50 basis points in 2026 [3]. - Fundamental - face: In Indonesia, President Prabowo ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines, which may intensify the tight supply of tin ore. Tin ore imports from Myanmar have rebounded, and short - term supply shows improvement signs, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. In the smelting sector, raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream made small pre - holiday stockpiling, domestic inventory decreased, but high tin prices may suppress procurement demand. LME inventory also declined, and the spot premium remained stable. It is recommended to wait and see or hold previous long positions cautiously [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 287,090 yuan/ton, with a change of 12,020. The closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is 680 yuan/ton, with a change of 760. LME 3 - month tin is at 36,250 dollars/ton, down 120. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 34,948 lots, up 6,204. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 987 lots, up 388. LME tin total inventory is 2,505 tons, up 40. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,429 tons, down 130. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 5,851 tons, up 10 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 284,200 yuan/ton, up 7,000. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 283,960 yuan/ton, up 5,500. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 2,890 yuan/ton, down 5,020. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 65.01 dollars/ton, down 73.01 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 272,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 276,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 183,870 yuan/ton, up 4,080. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that most officials are in favor of further rate cuts this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy relaxation is appropriate for the rest of the year, and inflation is expected to stay high in the short - term and then gradually fall to 2%. - China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion. - S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, and the delay in key economic data release will affect the Fed's monetary policy. Each week of shutdown may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach or buying on dips, with attention on the 271,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton range. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, there is a divergence in long - short trading, and the 275,000 resistance level should be watched. The domestic inventory has decreased due to some pre - holiday stockpiling, while LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium is at a low level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 272,410 yuan/ton, down 1,660 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract is down 500 yuan, with a 30 - yuan decline. The LME 3 - month tin price is 34,415 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 26,590 lots, down 2,701 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 890 lots, down 474 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2,775 tons, up 35 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 6,559 tons, down 429 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 430 tons, up 45 tons [3] 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 5,950 tons, down 127 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 271,400 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 271,110 yuan/ton, down 2,570 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 370 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan, and the LME tin spread (0 - 3) is - 50 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 1.03 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates' processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 259,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 263,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 176,170 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3] Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and focus on implementing existing policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council calls on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. China's industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. Trump's new chip policy requires a 1:1 ratio of domestic production to imports for producers, with tariffs imposed if not met. The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month as expected, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [3] Viewpoint Summary - Although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. In July, the increase in production was due to multiple factors such as some enterprises' resumption of production and the clearance of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream enterprises generally maintain rigid procurement due to cost pressure, with a low willingness to actively stockpile. Due to the approaching National Day holiday, some enterprises have made small - scale pre - holiday stockpiling, resulting in a decline in domestic inventory and a spot premium of 300 yuan/ton, while the LME inventory has increased and the spot premium is at a low level [3]