投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2026-01 | | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投 资 者 关 | 系 活 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | | □新闻发布会 √路演活动 | | 动类别 | | □现场参观 | | | | □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | | 策略会：东方证券策略会 | | | | 一对一：广发基金、睿远基金、汇丰晋信、Citi 花旗、仁桥资产、 | | 参 与 单 位 | 名 称 | 前海开源、大家资产、景顺长城、JP Morgan、中庚基金、聚鸣投 | | 及人员姓名 | | 资、高毅投资、圆信永丰、恒越基金、永赢基金、平安资管、中 | | | | 欧基金、兴业基金、平安养老、大成基金、鹏华基金 | | 时间 | 2025 | 年 月 12 | | 地点 | | 中集集团总部、北京、上海 | | 上市公司 | | 中集集团董事会秘书 吴三强 | | 接待人员 | | 中集集团证券事务代表 何林滢 | | | | 中集集团投资者关系高级经理 巫 娜 | | 姓名 | | 中集集团投资者关系经理 韩晓娜 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on December 10, 2025. For instance, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, while silver futures are likely to rise and hit a new high since listing [2][3]. - Global trade is projected to increase by about 7% (an additional $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record of $35 trillion, driven by East Asia, Africa, and South - South trade. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time with internal differences, and the market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 10, 2025, they are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4600 and 4619 points, and support levels are 4565 and 4535 points. Similar resistance and support levels are given for IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 [2][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2603 is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 108.03 and 108.20 yuan and support at 107.92 and 107.74 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2603 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with support at 112.2 and 111.7 yuan and resistance at 112.7 and 113.1 yuan [2][38][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2602 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels of 961.0 and 963.3 yuan/gram, with support at 951.5 and 945.5 yuan/gram. Silver futures contract AG2602 is likely to rise and hit a new high since listing, with resistance at 14200 and 14500 yuan/kg and support at 13726 and 13681 yuan/kg [2][3][43][51]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures contract CU2601 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 90600 and 90100 yuan/ton and resistance at 91700 and 92500 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures contract AL2601 is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 21920 and 21980 yuan/ton and support at 21710 and 21610 yuan/ton. Alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to decline and hit a new low since listing, and tin futures contract SN2601 is likely to fluctuate strongly [3][56][63]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, soybean meal, and corn futures all have their respective predicted trends and resistance/support levels [3][4][7]. 3.2 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's economic confidence in achieving the annual goals. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with the IMF President. US President Trump said he would approve the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China. China and Russia conducted a joint air - strategic cruise. The UNCTAD reported that global trade would grow by about 7% in 2025 [8]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market has priced in a 25 - basis - point cut. The US private - sector employment situation improved, and Ukraine is preparing for elections [8][9]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On December 9, international precious metal futures generally rose, while US crude oil and London base metals fell. The current high iron ore price is due to capital games and speculation, and the EIA adjusted its oil - price forecasts [9][10][11]. - In November, Russia's daily crude oil production was over 100,000 barrels lower than the target. The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar had certain changes, and the US dollar index rose [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed up 3.41%, and the far - month contracts closed up between 1 - 2%. The shipping companies' price increase announcements in late December drove up the futures prices [1]. - The SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rebounded, and the new export order index in November showed a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transportation demand [1]. - Spot freight rates of shipping companies increased, which also contributed to the rise in futures prices [1]. - The geopolitical conflict is in a stalemate, and its short - term impact on freight rates has weakened. The improvement of the trade war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are conducive to the recovery of futures prices. The current freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1665.200, up 54.9; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1080.7, up 6.10 [1]. - EC2602 - EC2604 spread: 584.50, up 38.30; EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 439.60, up 38.90; EC contract basis: - 156.10, down 45.40 [1]. - Futures holding positions: 31382, up 669; EC main contract holding volume: not specified [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1509.10, up 25.45; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 960.51, up 11.74 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1114.89, down 6.91; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1447.56, down 1.78; CCFI (composite index) (weekly): not specified [1]. - Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.11 [1]. Shipping - related Indexes - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2557.00, up 137.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1786.00, up 27.00 [1]. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 16670.00, unchanged; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 37465.00, down 400.00 [1]. Industry News - The Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva, emphasizing China's hope for objective research on international economic and trade issues and strengthening policy communication [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development reported that global trade volume will increase by about 7% (an increase of $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record of $35 trillion [1]. - US President Trump said he would use support for immediate and significant interest rate cuts as a "touchstone" for selecting the new Fed Chairman and might adjust tariff policies to help reduce prices [1]. Key Data to Focus On - December 11, 03:00: US Fed interest rate decision (upper limit) as of December 10 [1] - December 11, 21:30: US initial jobless claims (in ten thousand) for the week ending December 6 [1] - December 11, 21:30: US trade balance (in $100 million) for September [1] - December 11, 23:00: US wholesale sales monthly rate for September [1]

12月10日现货白银首次 【个股资讯】 甲骨文将公布2026财年 托克集团警告: 供应过剩"格局 明年在 新 】 社 主管主办 上海增养家 【市场回顾】 北京时间12月10日，日韩股市小幅高开。日经225指数涨0.44%，韩国综合指数涨0.37%。 (国际宏观) 美联储12 美联储观察: 概率为87.6% 凯文·哈塞特:大幅降息 联合国贸发会议: 202 35万亿美元 【市场回顾】 北京时间12月10日，白银期现价格联袂续创新高。伦敦银现盘中最高涨至60.911美元/盎司，离升破61美元/盎司仅一步之遥；COMEX白银盘中最高涨至61.4 美元/盎司，站稳61美元/盎司重要关口。 当地时间12月9日，美股三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，道指跌0.38%，报47560.29点；纳指涨0.13%，报23576.49点；标普500指数跌0.09%，报6840.51点。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.37%。百度跌超4%，小鹏汽车、理想汽车跌超3%，哔哩哔哩跌超2%，蔚来、阿里巴巴跌超1%。 【个股资讯】 美东时间12月10日盘后，甲骨文公司将公布其2026财年第二财季业绩。此前，甲骨文2026财年第一 ...

阿通社12月3日报道，据世贸组织最新年度贸易环境概览显示，2024年10月至2025年10月，受新关税和 进口措施刺激，全球商品进口额同比增长四倍，达2.64万亿美元，为WTO监测15年来最高。WTO预测 2025年全球贸易增长率约2.4%。 ...

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global merchandise trade growth forecast for this year from 0.9% in August to 2.4% [1] - The growth rate for service exports is projected to be 4.4% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025, both lower than the 6.8% expected for 2024 [1] - The forecast for 2026 has been downgraded from 1.8% to 0.5% [1] Trade Dynamics - The report attributes the unexpected strength in merchandise trade in the first half of the year to increased procurement related to artificial intelligence, early imports by the U.S. due to tariff concerns, and robust trade from developing countries [1] - A significant 42% of global trade growth is driven by AI-related products, which is notably higher than their 15% share in global trade [1] - In the first half of 2025, South-South trade is expected to grow by 8%, surpassing the global trade growth rate of 6% [1] Risks to Trade Outlook - The main downside risks to the global trade outlook include the spread of trade restrictions and policy uncertainties affecting more economies and sectors [1]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) report indicates that the impact of tariff increases on the global economy will become evident by 2026 [1] - Strong trade performance in the first half of 2023 led to an upward revision of the 2025 global goods trade growth forecast from -0.2% to 2.4% [1] - However, the WTO has downgraded the 2026 global trade growth forecast from 2.5% to 0.5% [1] Trade Growth Projections - Global goods trade is expected to grow by 5.5% year-on-year in Q1 2023 and 4.3% in Q2 2023, resulting in a 4.9% growth for the first half of the year [1] - The North American region is projected to see declines in goods trade imports and exports in 2025 by 4.9% and 3.1%, respectively, and further declines in 2026 by 5.8% and 1.0% [1] - The contribution of North America to global trade in 2025 and 2026 is expected to be negative, while Asia is anticipated to contribute the most to global trade growth [1]

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report indicates that global trade is expected to increase by approximately $500 billion in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, driven primarily by trade expansion among developing countries and a rebound in manufacturing exports [1] Group 1: Global Trade Trends - The report forecasts that if there are no significant disruptions in the second half of the year, global trade for the entirety of 2025 may surpass the record set in 2024 [1] - It is projected that goods trade will see a quarter-on-quarter growth of about 2.5% in Q3 2025, while service trade may accelerate to nearly 4% [1] Group 2: China's Trade Performance - China's exports are expected to remain resilient in the first half of 2025, particularly in the electronics and green transportation sectors [1] - Investments in hybrid and electric vehicle industries are not only boosting China's manufacturing exports but also increasing its share in global automotive trade [1] - China's foreign trade policy, characterized by diversifying markets and strengthening economic ties with developing countries, is helping maintain stability amid global trade fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - 中集集团 reported a decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating a strong performance in profitability despite challenging market conditions [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - 中集集团's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 760.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.82% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.78 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.63% [1] - The company reduced its interest-bearing debt by over 5 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, leading to a significant decrease in financing costs [1] Group 2: Container Business - The sales volume of dry cargo containers was 1.1259 million TEU, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 18.57% due to a high base from the previous year [2] - The demand for refrigerated containers grew, with sales reaching 92,000 TEU, a year-on-year increase of approximately 105.82% [2] - The container manufacturing segment generated revenue of 21.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.88%, while net profit increased by 13.20% to 1.444 billion yuan [2] - The company benefited from lower steel prices and focused on intelligent manufacturing to control costs, contributing to the growth in gross margin [2] Group 3: Marine Engineering Business - The marine engineering segment achieved revenue of 8.014 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.95%, with a net profit of 281 million yuan compared to a loss of 84 million yuan in the previous year [3] - The segment includes oil and gas equipment manufacturing, offshore wind power installation vessels, and special ship manufacturing [3] - The company secured new orders worth 106 million yuan during the reporting period, down from 1.79 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] - The marine engineering business is expected to continue growing, with a backlog of orders amounting to 5.55 billion yuan, indicating strong demand in the industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - 中集集团's mid-year performance shows a decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, indicating effective cost management and strategic focus on profitable segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, 中集集团 reported revenue of 760.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.82% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.78 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 47.63% [1]. - The company’s interest-bearing debt decreased by over 5 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, leading to lower financing costs [2]. Business Segments - The container business saw a gross profit margin increase of 3.95 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to an overall gross margin increase of 1.94 percentage points [1]. - Container sales volume reached 1.1259 million TEU, a decline of approximately 18.57% year-on-year due to high base effects from the previous year [4]. - Cold container demand grew significantly, with sales of 92,000 TEU, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 105.82% [4]. - The container manufacturing segment generated revenue of 21.735 billion yuan, down 12.88% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 13.20% to 1.444 billion yuan [4]. Market Outlook - The global trade volume is expected to increase by 300 billion USD in the first half of 2025, with 230 billion USD attributed to goods trade growth [4]. - The company anticipates steady development in the container logistics sector, supported by cost advantages from large-scale steel procurement and smart manufacturing initiatives [4]. Marine Engineering Business - The marine engineering segment achieved revenue of 8.014 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.95%, with a net profit of 281 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 84 million yuan in the previous year [4]. - The segment includes oil and gas equipment manufacturing, offshore wind power installation vessels, and special shipbuilding [5]. - New orders in the marine engineering sector totaled 10.6 million USD, down from 1.79 billion USD in the same period last year [5]. - The company has a backlog of orders amounting to 5.55 billion USD, with projects extending into 2028, indicating strong future demand [7].