Group 1 - The new export orders index has dropped to 97.9, indicating a contraction and suggesting a slowdown in trade growth later this year [1][3] - Global trade is expected to face increasing resistance in the second half of 2025 due to rising uncertainties and trade restrictions, despite strong growth in the first half [1][6] - The World Bank has revised its forecast for global trade growth in 2025 down to approximately 1.8%, a significant decrease from earlier predictions [6][9] Group 2 - The WTO's global merchandise trade index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5, indicating ongoing growth, but the weak export orders signal that this momentum may not be sustainable [3][6] - The UNCTAD report anticipates a $300 billion increase in global trade this year, but warns of significant challenges in the latter half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [6][8] - The U.S. trade deficit has been widening over the past four quarters, exacerbating global trade imbalances [8][9] Group 3 - The World Bank's data shows a notable reduction in trade growth forecasts, particularly for developed economies, which are expected to see trade growth at about half of previous estimates [7][9] - The rise in tariffs and trade restrictions has led to a historical peak in trade policy uncertainty, impacting global trade dynamics [6][10] - Companies are currently hesitant to make investment decisions due to the unpredictable nature of trade policies, leading to a wait-and-see approach [10]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a significant pullback after reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with geopolitical factors and central bank purchases continuing to support gold, but prices may be nearing a peak due to weakening physical demand, increased supply, and a slower-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][6][12]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Total gold supply is projected to increase from 4,950 tonnes in 2023 to 5,190 tonnes in 2025, driven by mine production and old gold scrap recovery [2]. - Jewelry demand, which constitutes about half of global gold consumption, is expected to decline significantly, with a 21% year-on-year drop in Q1 2025 to 380.3 tonnes [21]. - Investment demand remains strong, with gold ETFs seeing a net increase of 7.94 million ounces in 2023, reaching 90.79 million ounces [14]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks have historically supported gold prices, but the market's response may have reached saturation, as evidenced by the failure to surpass the April high following tensions with Iran [6]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are expected to be less aggressive than previously thought, which could negatively impact gold prices [12]. - Global trade growth is projected to slow, with only a 1.8% increase expected in 2025, which typically supports gold prices [9]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Future Projections - Central bank demand for gold remains robust, with purchases expected to total 955 tonnes in 2025, although this is lower than previous years [28]. - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,215 per ounce, with a trading range of $3,100 to $3,600 per ounce [2]. - The forecast for gold prices in 2026 is set at $3,125 per ounce, indicating a potential decline in price momentum [2].

Group 1: Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 11% year-on-year to 36 billion RMB, driven by growth in containers, logistics services, energy, and airport sectors [3] - Gross margin improved by 1.92 percentage points to 12.10% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 550% to 544 million RMB, reflecting both performance and operational enhancements [3] Group 2: Share Buyback Plan - The company plans to utilize up to HKD 500 million for the repurchase of H shares in the open market, aiming to boost shareholder confidence and align with national policy [4] Group 3: Impact of US-China Tariffs - Direct revenue from exports to the US is minimal, thus short-term policy changes have limited direct impact on the company [5] - Indirectly, progress in US-China tariff negotiations is expected to release demand for container shipping, leading to increased inquiries and actual orders for containers [5] - Long-term demand for containers is linked to global trade volume, benefiting from China's export resilience and the diversification of supply chains [5][6] Group 4: Global Container Market Insights - Current global container fleet exceeds 53 million TEU, creating stable replacement demand annually [7] - Trends such as green shipping and diversified supply chains are slowing container turnover rates, further supporting container demand [8]

Group 1: Container Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's container business saw a revenue and net profit increase compared to the same period last year, driven by a rise in orders and a low base from 2024 [3] - Dry container sales increased by 7.44% to 531,200 TEU, while refrigerated container sales surged by 291% to 36,400 TEU [3] - The company expects a more pronounced impact in the second half of the year due to high overall bases and potential macroeconomic effects from tariffs [3] Group 2: Impact of Trade War - The direct impact of the trade war on the company is minimal, as the revenue from domestic exports to the U.S. is a small percentage [4] - Indirectly, the uncertainty from tariffs poses concerns for global economic growth, which could affect the container shipping market [4] - The company remains confident in its ability to adapt and enhance its competitiveness for high-quality development [4] Group 3: Offshore Engineering Orders - In Q1 2025, new orders in the offshore engineering segment were primarily focused on oil and gas [5] - The company anticipates a steady increase in FPSO and FLNG projects, with Petrobras planning to add 10 FPSO systems from 2025 to 2029 [6] - Forecasts suggest an average of 13 FPSO contracts awarded per year from 2025 to 2027, with over 10 FLNG orders expected in the same period [6] Group 4: Offshore Engineering Financials - The offshore engineering segment achieved a revenue increase of 58% to 16.6 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 224 million CNY [7] - New orders in 2024 totaled 3.25 billion USD, with a backlog of 6.3 billion USD as of Q1 2025, primarily from oil and gas [7] - The company plans to enhance capacity and efficiency through fixed asset investments and improved project management [7] Group 5: Strategic Focus - The company will concentrate on its existing business structure, including containers, road transport vehicles, energy, and offshore engineering, while developing emerging strategic businesses [8] - The strategy emphasizes high-quality development and the optimization of asset structure, focusing on core business areas [8] - Emerging sectors such as energy storage, modular construction, cold chain logistics, and clean energy are being prioritized for future growth [8]