Summary of Xiaoming Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaoming Co. - **Industry**: Poultry and Egg Production Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Xiaoming Co. reported a loss of 1.65 million yuan in Q3 2025, primarily due to falling egg prices, weak seasonal demand, and increased R&D expenses related to digital upgrades like Max and ERP systems [2][4][3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 183 million yuan, a significant turnaround from previous losses, driven by tight supply conditions due to overseas avian influenza affecting breeding imports [3][4] Market Conditions - The egg market is experiencing oversupply, with the number of laying hens exceeding average levels by 5% to 8%, leading to unfavorable pricing conditions [5][6] - The demand for eggs has not met expectations, particularly during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, resulting in a lackluster consumption pattern [6][9] Strategic Adjustments - Xiaoming Co. has adjusted its strategy to maintain a monthly sales volume of over 20 million chicks to sustain market share, anticipating a market recovery in the second half of 2026 [2][7] - The company is committed to green development and digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency and competitiveness [7] Future Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate a slight increase in egg demand in Q4 2025, particularly in December due to pre-holiday stocking, but overall consumption remains weak [9][10] - Long-term projections suggest that the interruption of breeding imports will create a supply gap, supporting market prices in the coming years [8][10] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The cost of chick production in September 2025 was approximately 3.4 yuan, influenced by increased management and R&D costs [19] - Current orders for commercial chicks are concentrated in early December, with prices for different types of chicks ranging from 3.0 to 3.8 yuan [16] Production and Capacity - Xiaoming Co. has introduced over 41,000 grandparent stock this year, with a total of about 50,000 sets of grandparent stock currently held [12] - The company plans to establish a fully automated hatchery to improve efficiency and reduce labor costs [14] Youth Chicken Business - The youth chicken sales target for 2025 is 5 million, with current monthly sales around 400,000, although a decline is expected in September and October [17][18] - The company aims for significant growth in the youth chicken segment, targeting 1 million sales in 2026 and 2 million in 2027 [18] Competitive Landscape - Xiaoming Co. aims to maintain a market share of 30% in China, with plans for future overseas expansion once domestic cash flow stabilizes [22] Challenges and Risks - The poultry industry faces challenges from rising feed costs and competition from alternative protein sources, which may pressure egg prices [10][11] - The ongoing impact of avian influenza on breeding imports poses a risk to future production capacity [14][15] Additional Important Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing the value of by-products and exploring new product lines, such as frozen chicken and specialty products, to mitigate losses during downturns [20] - The current scale of poultry farming affects production costs, with medium-sized farms being the most cost-effective [11]

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - The company aims to optimize the scale, flexibility, and product structure of the egg-laying chicken industry, focusing on sustainable and healthy development [3] - Key business areas include core business of chick production, and star businesses such as young chickens, premix feed, non-cage eggs, and new food products [3] - The company has successfully imported over 60,000 grandparent egg-laying chickens from the U.S. between March and May 2024, marking a significant update to its breeding stock [4] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The young chicken industry is experiencing steady growth, with an estimated output of approximately 560 million young chickens in 2024 [5] - The company sold 151.8 million commercial chicks in the first half of 2025, a 63.46% increase year-on-year, with an expected annual capacity of 300 million chicks [8] - The market share for chick products is approximately 25% as of the first half of 2025 [8] Group 3: Financial Insights - Sales revenue fluctuated in September 2025 due to overall supply-demand dynamics in the egg-laying chicken industry, with cautious expectations from breeding units [6] - The egg price experienced seasonal fluctuations, with a notable increase during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, followed by a slight decline due to market adjustments [6] Group 4: Management and Governance - The company is transitioning from a founder-led management model to a professional manager model to enhance governance and operational efficiency [7] - The governance structure aims to separate ownership from management, ensuring clear responsibilities and checks and balances [7] Group 5: ESG and Sustainability Initiatives - The company implements a green development strategy, focusing on resource conservation and environmental protection, while adhering to national and local environmental regulations [7] - Animal welfare is prioritized through a "high-floor flat raising" model, enhancing both animal welfare and production performance [8]

Core Insights - The boundaries of brand operations are becoming increasingly blurred, with various sectors overlapping in product offerings [1] - Companies are diversifying their product lines to maintain revenue stability and growth amid intensified competition and declining foot traffic [4] Industry Trends - Companies like Luckin Coffee are introducing new products such as milk tea, while traditional tea shops are venturing into coffee sales [2] - Convenience stores and supermarkets are expanding their food offerings, allowing customers to have meals in places previously not associated with dining [3] Growth Strategies - Market penetration involves increasing the density of existing products in existing markets, exemplified by Mixue Ice City expanding its store count [7] - Market development refers to introducing existing products into new markets, as seen with Haidilao opening locations in Singapore [8] - Product extension is when companies introduce new products to existing markets, such as Atour selling pillows [9] - Diversification involves launching new products in new markets, illustrated by Jiumaojiu's success with Guizhou red sour soup noodles at Sam's Club [10] Seasonal Demand Management - The restaurant industry focuses on eliminating off-peak seasons by introducing products that cater to different times of the day [11] - For instance, tea shops promote coffee to attract morning customers, while coffee shops may offer tea to boost afternoon sales [12][13] - Restaurants like Hanxiangfu adapt their menus to include lunch options to attract customers during typically slow hours [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price showed a weak performance this week, with the average price in the main producing areas at 2.61 yuan/jin, down 0.22 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas at 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. The decline in egg prices has stimulated an increase in the willingness of some farmers to cull chickens, and the phenomenon of eggs entering cold storage has increased, slowing down the decline in egg prices [4]. - The supply of eggs is expected to remain high. In May, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the laying - hen inventory from June to September 2025 is expected to be around 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [8]. - The cost of egg production decreased slightly this week. Although the feed cost increased slightly, the decline in soybean meal prices led to a decrease in the overall cost of egg production. However, due to the decline in egg prices, the egg - farming profit continued to be in the red [11]. - The demand for eggs weakened. After the "6.18" promotion ended, the sales volume in the selling areas decreased, and the market inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase seasonally next week [14]. - In terms of trading strategies, the near - month 07 futures contract is expected to remain weak, but the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of chickens continues to increase in the future, the 8 - and 9 - month futures contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise. It is recommended to consider building long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month contracts in the second half of June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high, and adopt a strategy of shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts [15]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Spot Analysis** - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.61 yuan/jin, down 0.22 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas was 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. The low egg prices led to increased losses for farmers, accelerating the culling of old hens. The chicken -苗 market was in a mess, with the utilization rate of hatching eggs at about 70% - 80%, and the average price of young chickens was 16.89 yuan/head, remaining stable [4]. - **Supply Analysis** - The national laying - hen inventory in May was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The monthly output of chicken -苗 in sample enterprises in May was 46.985 million, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 1%. The culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas in the week of June 13 was 20.52 million, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 512 days, a decrease of 3 days from the previous week [8]. - **Cost Analysis** - As of June 13, the corn price was around 2405 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 2994 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2582 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.84 yuan/jin for eggs. The egg - farming profit continued to be in the red, with the average weekly profit per jin of fresh eggs at - 0.47 yuan/jin as of June 12, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous week, and the expected egg - farming profit on June 13 at 15.5 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.09 yuan/head from the previous week [11]. - **Demand Analysis** - Affected by the "6.18" promotion, the market sales volume was okay at first, but then the sales volume in the selling areas decreased by 7.4% week - on - week. The national egg market inventory increased slightly, and it is expected to continue to increase seasonally next week. The vegetable price index rebounded, and the pork price index declined slightly [14]. - **Trading Strategy** - The near - month 07 futures contract is expected to remain weak, but the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of chickens continues to increase in the future, the 8 - and 9 - month futures contracts may rise. It is recommended to consider building long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month contracts in the second half of June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high, and adopt a strategy of shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [15]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory (Zhuochuang)** - The data shows the historical and predicted data of the laying - hen inventory and chicken -苗 replenishment volume [8]. - **Culling Situation** - The data shows the historical data of the weekly culling volume of laying hens [8]. - **Egg - Farming Situation** - It includes the culling age of laying hens and the average price of chicken -苗 in the main producing areas [22]. - **Spread and Basis** - The data shows the historical data of the basis and spreads of different contracts, such as the 1 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc. [24][25]