农林牧渔/动物保健Ⅱ 生物股份（600201.SH） 非瘟疫苗研发加速，新品多点开花成长动能强劲 2025 年 08 月 20 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 日期 2025/8/20 当前股价(元) 9.19 一年最高最低(元) 9.55/5.62 总市值(亿元) 102.17 流通市值(亿元) 102.17 总股本(亿股) 11.12 流通股本(亿股) 11.12 近 3 个月换手率(%) 226.05 股价走势图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 生物股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《非瘟亚单位疫苗临床试验获批，创 新龙头成长动能强劲—公司信息更新 报告》-2025.7.18 《业绩短期承压，持续创新厚积薄发 —公司信息更新报告》-2025.4.27 《业绩短期承压，新品储备充足持续 成长—公司信息更新报告》-2024.11.3 公司猪用疫苗营收保持稳健增长态势，其中猪用非口蹄疫产品营收增长超过 20%，产品结构不断优化。反刍疫苗，牛二联、布病（Rev.1 株）及小反刍兽疫 活疫苗等核心单品放量增长。禽用疫苗，公司组建专属 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market shows strong upward momentum, with a focus on sectors such as hydropower construction, rare earths, and military industry [4][8] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6,846.04 billion, with a PE ratio of 12.65 and a PB ratio of 1.31 [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index has a total market capitalization of 2,382.45 billion, with a PE ratio of 21.24 and a PB ratio of 2.25 [3] Economic Insights - In the first half of 2025, China attracted foreign investment of 423.23 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% [20] - The number of small and medium-sized enterprises in Hunan Province has surpassed 2.13 million, an increase of 156,200 compared to the same period last year [48] Industry Dynamics - The clinical trial for the African swine fever subunit vaccine has been approved, marking a significant step towards commercialization [31] - The first domestic cat trivalent vaccine has received approval for new veterinary drug registration, indicating progress in domestic pet health products [33] - The lithium battery industry in China saw a shipment volume increase of over 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a total shipment of 776 GWh [37][39] Company Updates - Sanqi Interactive Entertainment has appointed Zeng Kaitian as the new general manager, indicating a leadership change within the company [43][44] - Feiwo Technology has initiated its first share buyback, repurchasing 50,000 shares as part of its stock incentive plan [45][46]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has received approval for clinical trials of its ASFV subunit vaccine, marking it as the only one in China to achieve this milestone, showcasing its strong R&D capabilities [3][5] - Despite short-term performance pressure due to increased R&D expenses and intensified industry competition, the company is expected to benefit from its innovative pipeline, particularly the ASF vaccine, which opens new growth opportunities [3][4] - The company has adjusted its 2025 profit forecast downwards while increasing projections for 2026-2027, with expected net profits of 188 million, 352 million, and 508 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is 10.68 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 9.53 yuan [1] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.17, 0.31, and 0.45 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 56.7, 30.3, and 21.0 [3][4] - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 57 million to 70 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 43.05% to 53.63% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure due to intensified industry competition and declining product prices, but it maintains a strong focus on innovation and has a solid pipeline of new products, leading to a "buy" rating. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be 1.255 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.45%, with a net profit of 109 million yuan, down 61.58% due to increased competition and reduced margins [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 352 million yuan, an increase of 1.06%, while net profit is projected at 76 million yuan, down 27.57% [1] - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 251 million, 348 million, and 448 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.22, 0.31, and 0.40 yuan [1] Group 2: Market Position and Product Development - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 are 53.86% and 8.30%, respectively, showing declines of 5.33 percentage points and 9.04 percentage points [2] - The company maintains a strong market share in key products, with a 23% market share in pig circovirus vaccines and a 40% market share in brucellosis vaccines [2] - Several major products are set to launch in 2024, expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2025, including over 30 million yuan from the ruminant mycoplasma vaccine and over 10 million yuan from the cat trivalent vaccine [2] Group 3: Research and Development - In 2024, the company invested 179 million yuan in R&D, accounting for 14.25% of its revenue [3] - The company has secured production licenses for several important vaccines, including the Rev.1 strain of the Brucella vaccine, and is developing the world's first mRNA vaccine for feline infectious peritonitis [3] - The safety and efficacy of the African swine fever subunit vaccine meet the standards set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the company is progressing with the review process [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to intensified industry competition, declining product prices, and reduced gross margins, alongside continued high R&D investment. However, the company has a strong pipeline of new products that are expected to contribute positively to future growth [4][5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.255 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.45% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 109 million yuan, down 61.58% year-on-year. The decline in net profit is attributed to increased competition in the industry [4][7] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 352 million yuan, an increase of 1.06% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 76 million yuan, a decrease of 27.57% year-on-year [4] - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards and introduced a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 251 million yuan, 348 million yuan, and 448 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][7] Market Position and Product Pipeline - The company maintains a solid market share for its major products, with a 23% market share for its pig circovirus vaccine and a 40% market share for its brucellosis vaccine. Several major products are expected to be launched in 2024, contributing to revenue growth in 2025 [5][6] - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with 179 million yuan invested in 2024, representing 14.25% of its revenue. It has obtained production licenses for several important vaccines and is progressing with the development of a novel mRNA vaccine for cats [6] Financial Metrics and Valuation - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 53.86%, and the net margin was 8.30%, reflecting a decline of 5.33 percentage points and 9.04 percentage points respectively. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 54.53% and the net margin was 21.96% [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.22 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.40 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31.4, 22.6, and 17.5 [4][7]