每周 一 景 ：上海浦东陆家嘴 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【农业】 周期破晓见曦，成长擎画新篇—— 农林牧渔展望 2026 行业报告 生猪养殖：政策、周期双驱动，产能逻辑催化。 1）价格：2026H1预计猪价延续低迷，行业延续低利润。2）产能：产能政策和周期调节，产能去化持续。3）负债降低，成本下降。关注成本改善、具备成 长性的生猪养殖企业。 禽养殖：白鸡供需静待修复，黄鸡需求或提升。 1）白鸡产业链价格陷入深度低迷，供需回归平衡尚需时间。2）黄鸡价格或将小幅修复，关注中华土鸡推广活动对黄鸡消费的带动作用。 牛养殖：养殖周期长，供给侧收缩推动价格上涨。 1）肉牛养殖周期长，我国肉牛养殖格局分散，散户行为影响大。2）2022-2024年的价格低位推动去化，2025年起出栏量环比下降，价格有望持续景气。 养殖后周期：饲料销量有望增长，龙头集中度提升。动保关注新品进展。 1）2026年养殖存栏量仍然较高，行业景气度持续向上，其中2026年上半年企业饲料销量增速预期高于下半年。2）动保需求受养殖低利润影响，2026年动 保景气度或承压，关注新品（如非洲猪瘟疫苗、宠物疫苗）进展。 种植：粮价有望稳中向上，自主可控，关 ...

一袋猫粮数百元、宠物疫苗年销售额破亿元，以及宠物专用扫地机器人逐渐成为城市养宠家庭标配，从 数据来看，宠物消费从过去的边缘成为拉动消费增长的新引擎。近日，京东发布的数据显示，宠物消费 逐年增长。2025年，养宠家庭作为一个独特的消费单元，需求贯穿了家居清洁、环境健康、休闲娱乐乃 至家具设计等各个生活领域。宠物，成为撬动智能家居、健康家电甚至快消品等庞大市场新增量的关键 变量。新品消费的迅猛增长和品牌推新频率的加快，正是这一"融合创新"活力的体现。 生态扩张 "宠物+"消费爆发 宠物经济最引人瞩目的趋势是"外溢效应"与服务功能"融合能力"。宠物消费不再局限于食品、用品等传 统品类，它像"靶向系统"一样，点向传统品类时，为其注入新的增长动能。 宠物消费呈现"宠物需求人性化""人类产品宠物化"的特点。以传统的家用电器吸尘器为例，京东数据显 示，2025年，北京地区宠物吸毛器成交额增长65%，除此以外，智能猫厕所、宠物摄像头等养宠类刚需 电器的销售实现快速增长。京东方面指出，扫地机器人、空气净化器、除螨仪等传统生活家电，纷纷推 出"养宠家庭适用"版本，并成为重要的增长点。 另外，数据显示，北京地区鱼缸/水族箱品类实现 ...

一袋猫粮数百元、宠物疫苗年销售额破亿元，以及宠物专用扫地机器人逐渐成为城市养宠家庭标配，从数据来看，宠物消费从过去的边缘成为拉动消费增长 的新引擎。近日，京东发布的数据显示，宠物消费逐年增长。2025年，养宠家庭作为一个独特的消费单元，需求贯穿了家居清洁、环境健康、休闲娱乐乃至 家具设计等各个生活领域。宠物，成为撬动智能家居、健康家电甚至快消品等庞大市场新增量的关键变量。新品消费的迅猛增长和品牌推新频率的加快，正 是这一"融合创新"活力的体现。 无论是养宠家庭保洁，还是上门喂养，都标志着养宠消费观念从"养宠"向"宠养"迭代，各类宠物饮食健康、情感满足、个性体验、医疗保健等服务型消费新 赛道涌现。 京东数据指出，宠物健康已成为无可争议的消费增长第一动力。全国宠物消费大盘中，2025年，宠物处方食品同比增幅高达290%，宠物治疗药增长80%， 情绪舒缓类产品增长超90%，这些数字远高于传统品类增长。 在直播渠道，宠物处方食品、驱虫和综合营养稳居销量前三。具体到产品，皇家品牌的泌尿道、肠道处方粮，硕腾的速诺消炎片、勃欣定（宠物心脏病药） 等专业药品销量突出。 生态扩张 "宠物+"消费爆发 宠物经济最引人瞩目的趋势是 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a structural transformation in the capital market, focusing on rebuilding confidence and addressing external demand pessimism [3][4] - The investment logic suggests a shift from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with a resilient cycle expected in 2026, highlighting the value attributes of leading companies [9] - Key assumptions include a gradual decrease in the breeding sow inventory and proactive capacity control by pig companies, which may lead to reduced supply pressure and potential price recovery for pigs in 2026 [8] Group 2 - The report identifies specific companies to focus on, such as leading low-cost and high-certainty firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as high-growth smaller pig companies [7] - The report outlines potential risks, including the possibility of breeding sow inventory not decreasing as expected, which could lead to an oversupply of pigs and downward pressure on prices [8] - The report also discusses the beef market, indicating that if the import impact continues, it could lead to downward pressure on beef prices, affecting the profitability of beef companies [16][24] Group 3 - In the poultry sector, the report highlights that the yellow chicken market may see price increases if breeding stocks continue to decline, while the white chicken market is expected to recover as macroeconomic activities improve [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand in the poultry market, noting that weak demand could lead to price declines and pressure on company performance [27][32] - The report suggests that the animal health sector will benefit from the recovery of livestock profitability, with a focus on companies that have strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines [33][36] Group 4 - The grain sector is expected to see upward price trends due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, with a focus on companies involved in seed production and transgenic varieties [40][41] - The report warns of potential risks in the seed industry, including weak demand for new varieties, which could lead to price declines and increased pressure on seed companies [44][45] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring government policies regarding the commercialization of new seed varieties, as delays could impact market expectations [46][48] Group 5 - The report provides a risk assessment for recommended stocks, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, indicating potential risks related to pig output and price declines [50][56] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of key indicators, such as breeding sow inventory and market prices, to assess the performance of the companies in the livestock sector [56]

证 券 研 究 报 告 动保行业 11 月跟踪报告 行业研究 动物疫苗及兽药 2025 年 12 月 22 日 华创证券研究所 11 月多数疫苗产品批签发同比继续下滑，兽 推荐（维持） 药原料药价格指数持续弱势 疫苗批签发：11 月多数疫苗产品批签发同比继续下滑 兽药原料药：12 月 VPI 指数连续第 2 个月环比下降 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 7 | 0.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 537.54 | 0.05 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 512.10 | 0.05 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 6.9% | 37.2% | 41.7% | | 相对表现 | 7.4% | 18.3% | 25.9% | -10% 11% 32% 54% 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/ ...

深圳347家企业扎堆入选工信部第七批专精特新"小巨人"名单，领跑全国。分区来看，宝安区本批次企 业入选数量达102家，南山区为84家，而大鹏新区"挂零"。至此，深圳有效期内"小巨人"企业总量预计 冲至1333家，但大鹏新区的"小巨人"总量仅为6家，占总量的0.45%。 大鹏新区2025年管理委员会工作报告显示，2024年，大鹏新区工业对GDP增长的贡献率高达66%。一边 是工业对GDP增长高达66%的贡献率，一边是优质中小企业培育滞后；一边是对坝光片区这样的高能级 产业载体持续的投入，一边是坝光建设十年仍显冷清的产业景象。近日，南都高质量发展深调研团队 （以下简称"南都深调研团队")深入大鹏新区，试图解开其产业发展困局。 大鹏新区坝光片区 资源禀赋优越 南都深调研团队发现，大鹏在企业总数和知名企业数量上不如深圳的传统强区，也不如隔壁的坪山。但 是，其也拥有高能级的发展片区和发展态势较好的工业园区。片区内的坝光片区，早在十几年前就被认 为是深圳未来增长极的重要组成部分。据媒体公开报道，2013年9月，深圳宣布在东部滨海的大鹏、盐 田、坪山区域启动深圳国际生物谷建设，打造继前海之后的又一个重要增长极，将坝光定位为 ...

摘要 国内宠物主粮市场竞争激烈，国产品牌市场份额已超过 70%，并呈现出 乖宝、皇家、鲜朗和网易天成等品牌梯队。未来趋势显示，国产企业将 采取国际化战略，通过海外建厂扩展全球市场。 宠物主粮市场价格竞争加剧，大品牌通过价格战抢占市场份额，小型品 牌生存空间受挤压。品牌需平衡价格与质量，避免因质量问题失去市场， 预计未来主要玩家将继续通过价格战保持竞争力。 线上渠道已成主流，贡献品牌 80%销量，线下渠道则有助于抓住强粘性 客户。品牌需平衡线上线下投入，先在线上建立口碑，再投入线下，以 应对市场竞争。 乖宝在供应链端具有显著优势，通过控制肉源和谷物溯源，以及海外建 厂等方式降低成本，成为行业巨头。中宠则通过多品牌矩阵化运营和对 原料端、供应链的广泛投资，也具备发展潜力。 宠物保健品市场规模预计 2025 年将超过 150 亿元（出厂价），零售额 接近 300 亿元，未来趋势是精细化、个性化发展。国产品牌占比超过 60%，但受限于消费者认知和研发不足，同质化问题严重。 Q&A 请介绍一下您的从业背景及公司目前的主营业务和代理品牌。 我曾在皇家宠物食品工作，从 2008 年到 2016 年负责华中区域的销售和管理。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **U.S. Stock Market**: Expected to experience volatility and differentiation, with a focus on technology stocks following Nvidia's earnings report, small-cap tech, healthcare, financial sectors, and low-end consumer staples [1][3] - **A-Share Market**: Currently in a phase of fluctuation, with attention on price increase diffusion, low-level rebounds, and sentiment-driven themes [1][5] Economic Indicators - **Domestic Macro Data**: Weak performance noted in October, with social financing and credit weakening, exports turning negative, and declines in fixed and real estate investments [1][5] - **Liquidity Trends**: Marginal contraction in macro liquidity, with a projected decline in the growth rate of liabilities in the real sector [1][6][7] Investment Recommendations - **Fixed Income Strategy**: Maintain flexibility in asset allocation due to changing liquidity conditions, with a recommendation for a combination of long-term bonds and value equity assets [1][7] - **Healthcare Sector**: Recent rebound in the innovative drug sector, with increasing competitiveness in Chinese drug licensing and a rationalization of valuations [1][8] - **Agriculture Sector**: Opportunities identified in agricultural modernization, disease prevention in livestock, and environmental technology in aquaculture [1][11] Geopolitical Impact - **Military Sector**: Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Japan's statements on Taiwan, may boost sentiment in the military sector [1][9][10] Specific Company Insights - **Yuehai Feed**: Notable recovery in performance with a projected compound growth rate of 20% to 30% over the next three years, driven by internal adjustments and market expansion [1][16][18] Consumer Trends - **Pet Industry**: Strong performance of brands under Guobao and Zhongchong during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating robust market positioning [1][12][14] Conclusion - **Market Outlook**: Cautious approach recommended in light of weak domestic fundamentals, with a focus on sectors showing potential for price increases and low-level rebounds, alongside monitoring geopolitical developments [1][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in performance, with a focus on the orderly advancement of non-epidemic vaccine clinical trials. The revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 1.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 161 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.85%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 423 million yuan, up 17.76% year-on-year, and net profit increased significantly by 116.40% year-on-year [2][3] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 188 million yuan, 352 million yuan, and 508 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.17 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.46 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 65.4, 35.0, and 24.3 times for the respective years [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.042 billion yuan, a 7.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 161 million yuan, down 4.85% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 423 million yuan, up 17.76% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 116.40% year-on-year [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 188 million yuan in 2025, 352 million yuan in 2026, and 508 million yuan in 2027, with EPS projected at 0.17 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.46 yuan respectively [2][3] Market Position and Growth - The company is expanding its market share in the competitive pig vaccine sector, with Q1-Q3 2025 sales of pig foot-and-mouth disease vaccines increasing by 50% year-on-year. The revenue from non-foot-and-mouth vaccines also saw significant growth, with diarrhea vaccine revenue up 120% year-on-year [3] - Direct sales channels for poultry vaccines showed strong performance, with a 40% year-on-year increase in direct sales revenue. The company is also expanding its international business, with revenue growth exceeding 16 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2025 [3] Research and Development - The company emphasizes stable operations and innovation in R&D, with R&D expenses of 96 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a 9.08% increase year-on-year. The non-epidemic vaccine development is progressing, with the first clinical trial expected to begin by the end of December 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The New Ruipeng Pet Hospital Group is undergoing significant changes, including leadership shifts and a strategic pivot from aggressive expansion to refined operations, amid challenges in profitability and operational costs [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Company Changes - In August 2025, New Ruipeng's co-chairman Li Liang emphasized the need to abandon low-quality expansion models, coinciding with the absence of founder Peng Yonghe, which raised questions about the company's direction [3]. - Peng Yonghe has stepped down as the legal representative, with Wei Shanwei taking over, while Peng remains as chairman and general manager [3][4]. - The operational control of New Ruipeng has been handed over to representatives from Hillhouse Capital, indicating a shift in management focus [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - New Ruipeng's revenue grew from 4.784 billion yuan in 2021 to 5.74 billion yuan in 2022, but net losses increased from 1.311 billion yuan to 1.417 billion yuan during the same period [4]. - The company's labor costs have surged from 22% of total revenue in 2015 to 52% in 2022, significantly impacting profit margins [6]. Group 3: Industry Context - The pet medical industry is experiencing a collective anxiety, with a saturation of stores leading to a shift towards standardization and regulation since 2022 [7]. - Consumers report high costs for pet medical services, while companies struggle with profitability due to rising operational costs and reliance on imported medical supplies [7]. - Recent financial reports from listed pet industry companies show revenue growth but declining net profits, indicating a challenging competitive landscape [7]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - New Ruipeng is transitioning from aggressive expansion to refined operations, with plans to reduce the number of stores from a peak of around 1,900 to approximately 1,600 [6]. - The company is focusing on specialization and digital transformation, establishing 15 specialized pet medical departments to enhance service quality [8]. - New Ruipeng is also exploring a network layout of "1+P+C" (one central hospital, specialized hospitals, and community clinics) to optimize resource allocation [8].